TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Nope, never heard of it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Parts of London crashed by 20% in 2009 and are now up by 60% on the 2009 price so from say 440k down to 360k now up to 575k so 30% up on 2007. All nominal prices, real terms will be dependent on wages rises ... probably nearer 0% than 30%. So if wages AFTER tax have risen by 30% then break-even. Prices UK people can afford to pay are dependent on wage rises. They aint selling houses to UK people now, this is globalisation, pay over the odds, get tax haven status and a british passport. Just because us poor bast*ards are paid in useless british money doesnt mean everyone else is. Real prices are measured in terms of general inflation. Always have, always will be. Wages will rise here, or prices will fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 They crashed, have they managed to scrape above the 2007 in real terms too ? To quote McEnroe You CanNOT Be Serious. To answer your question. No. Not scraped above. Hugely above. As you know. What's your game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Correct IIRC a local EA said that 40% of their clients were foreign and 60% on the new build sales they made were to foreign investors. Fact remains that the 'high' of 2007 (440k in the example) are now asking 575k (actually the one that I know the actual figures for the asking is 625k not 575k but the 625k is acknowledged as kite flying). One thing is certain, the whole thing is a mess. The men responsible for selling the UK up the river should be locked up. Houses need to be for local people, people who work. They used to build factories, then houses round them, not now. All I see all these housing estate springing up and no where for the people buying to work and I think....massive problem coming their way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I smell lots of rats I do, especially the one where the BoE visited london estate agents in Northampton. That one was especially shameful even for the "independent" Bank of England. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnySW18 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The home.co.uk figures are based on average asking price of homes advertised for sale on their site. The LR sales indices are not reflecting those price changes at all. Walworth is not prime. It is one of the worst and cheapest areas of Southwark, which incidentally is up 20% in 2014 based on LR data. Though it did experience its first monthly fall in the latest outturn data - of 0.1% between November and December. Prime London actual sales data is still up double-digit in 2014. This is based mainly on Jan - Aug HPI, as in most cases it is down by 1-3% from the 2014 high as at December 2014, which is of course good. But I think the it may be a bit premature to time to close this particular discussion thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 To quote McEnroe You CanNOT Be Serious. To answer your question. No. Not scraped above. Hugely above. As you know. What's your game? Dunno, I;'m asking the quesiton, take 2007 peak, add on inflation...is London';s new nominal peak about that figure ? Do you have a graph ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 (edited) http://news.sky.com/story/1424155/pm-holds-talks-over-possible-greek-euro-exit "James Smith Aka James Smith 3 hours ago They will probably blame the collapsing london housing market on the greeks, " Someone always lets the cat out the bag. Where are all the trolls jumping on that comment !!! Edited February 9, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disenfranchised Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 (edited) Correct IIRC a local EA said that 40% of their clients were foreign and 60% on the new build sales they made were to foreign investors. Fact remains that the 'high' of 2007 (440k in the example) are now asking 575k (actually the one that I know the actual figures for the asking is 625k not 575k but the 625k is acknowledged as kite flying). I work in Canary Wharf but only 2 of my colleagues live full time anywhere within the tube map - both are single young professionals who happen to be immigrants from well off backgrounds & both live in zone 2 single bedroom flats - one rented at an eye-watering £1300 a month (but earns a salary to support that) and the other lives in a flat bought outright for them as a student by their family. Wealthy and influential families from China/India seem to aspire to send their kids over here to work in London. Indian and Chinese lending multiples are up to 10x, which their banks will apparently loan on our market? We might scoff at 'its different this time' but with foreign buying power involved to an increasing extent, I suspect it just might be for zones 1-3. In my (annecdotal) experience, it isn't wealthy/aspirational English people buying a lot of this stuff at these preposterous prices, so rules on mortgage mutiples are irrelevent. Perhaps a wider global bubble needs to burst rather than a local one to take out the price hikes in the centres of 'global cities' like London. Edited February 9, 2015 by disenfranchised Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Dunno, I;'m asking the quesiton, take 2007 peak, add on inflation...is London';s new nominal peak about that figure ? Do you have a graph ? With the caveat that all inflation measures and house price indices have their flaws, Nationwide apparently has London re-testing the 2007 peak in real terms around Q1 2014: http://www.edmundconway.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/londonrealvsabsolute1.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Lot's of fun and high RM traffic at SW8: SW8 RM traffic for last 24h: 66% (37/67) of price reductions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mewParadigm Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 With the caveat that all inflation measures and house price indices have their flaws, Nationwide apparently has London re-testing the 2007 peak in real terms around Q1 2014 Seems like some are betting that we're at/past the next peak: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2946124/Hedge-funds-short-shares-London-property-stars.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ray Valentine Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Lot's of fun and high RM traffic at SW8: SW8 RM traffic for last 24h: 66% (37/67) of price reductions Loving this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 (edited) With the caveat that all inflation measures and house price indices have their flaws, Nationwide apparently has London re-testing the 2007 peak in real terms around Q1 2014: http://www.edmundconway.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/londonrealvsabsolute1.jpg Looks close in real terms. Saying that the nominal price increase is insane, disgusting really.The higher it goes the harder it will fall. If the nationwide has been lending into the london market then. In my opinion they need Their meads looking at. Edited February 9, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Seems like some are betting that we're at/past the next peak: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2946124/Hedge-funds-short-shares-London-property-stars.html They're a bit late to the party re. Foxtons... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Looks close in real terms. Saying that the nominal price increase is insane, disgusting really. The higher it goes the harder it will fall. If the nationwide has been lending into the london market then. In my opinion they need Their meads looking at. Seem to remember someone (maybe Bland Unsight?) posting a breakdown of their mortgage book that indicated they'd been heavily lending into London, but I could be mistaken. The obvious caveat with Nationwide is that they base their indices on their own lending. How many prime London mortgages would be going through them? On the other hand, probably a fairly good indication of what's going on with bog standard semi's and entry level *cough* flats... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Seem to remember someone (maybe Bland Unsight?) posting a breakdown of their mortgage book that indicated they'd been heavily lending into London, but I could be mistaken.From £30bn lending in London FYE 2013 to £47bn in FYE 2014, IIRC. The same annual report mentioned a risk that 'the London property bubble might burst', ie, they admitted lending an extra £17bn into something they defined as a bubble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 From £30bn lending in London FYE 2013 to £47bn in FYE 2014, IIRC. The same annual report mentioned a risk that 'the London property bubble might burst', ie, they admitted lending an extra £17bn into something they defined as a bubble. Oh dear... I wonder how much of that additional lending was for BTL? The ability to place a charge for any NE from the rental property onto the borrower's main residence might seem very attractive if a bubble has already been identified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 From £30bn lending in London FYE 2013 to £47bn in FYE 2014, IIRC. The same annual report mentioned a risk that 'the London property bubble might burst', ie, they admitted lending an extra £17bn into something they defined as a bubble. to be fair their risk identification process is quite good; they just need to work more on their risk mittigation process going forward ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 They will probably blame the collapsing london housing market on the greeks, Who cares what pretext they use for it - just get one, or actually a few, and stick with them, to allow Real-HPC. There's enough HPCers who devote their lives for those paying ever higher prices to own, BTLers, equity rich, outright owners. Correcting to me, when it comes. Collapsing is fine from pure HPC view point, but 'collapsing' is what the HPCers who want to stop the HPC will use, after a slight fall in values, having breakdowns for victims losing forever HPI, lobbying for bailouts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 With the caveat that all inflation measures and house price indices have their flaws, Nationwide apparently has London re-testing the 2007 peak in real terms 33% inflation since 2007. No way! Much less. Its 1% now and it was -ve in 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Talking to an agent (the one final, decent, reasonable agent) in the part of SW London I monitor, I got a sense of where we might be with the London market. He's routinely asked to market properties at 10% or more above what he thinks he could ever hope to sell them for. Vendors see what similar properties have been sold for, add in a percentage according to how long ago the sale took place, and come up with a new "high" for the area. Because he wants the business (it's his livelihood, after all) he agrees and on it goes. It doesn't sell. It often doesn't attract any interest at all. So the vendor has to reduce the price. However, they do this so incrementally that the property still doesn't attract any interest. Finally, they drop the price by a significant amount, they get an offer for slightly less, and the sale goes through. This sets a new "low" for the market. But because LR figures take so long to come through, it's a while before the new price becomes the benchmark and a degree of sanity returns. Of course, other agents perpetuate the myth of ever-rising prices, adding to the time it will take for reality to hit home. Some vendors don't need to sell quickly, or sell at all, so they don't, which means their asking price feeds through to the Rightmove index, encouraging others to go "high". But what often happens is that a vendor wants to buy somewhere else, so either settles for a realistic price on their property and takes the hit, or bargains down on whatever he or she or they is or are buying elsewhere. Which is how a market corrects itself, I think - quietly, privately, but tangibly. Urgh... seen blogs recently of EAs pitching for the business (on what I believe are very over-valued properties, but others - owners - think good value)..... That's still bubble complacency held up to me. Too slow. Can't wait until the market properly turns, and the cascade begins... and power is taken away for the owner side (including those who think 'Well I'll just take it off market'), because enough sellers in the race to exit willing to take lower prices. Also in real HPC, forcing down values for those snootily saying don't need to sell. They're not encouraging me to bid high in this hyperinflated market - just the anti-HPCers with their "Buyer victims who don';t know what a mortgage is.. always fault of banks innit for kids borrowing £500K). Values are decided at the margin. HPC. Friday, 31 October 2014. It's been a long and stressful day. Five agents have viewed the house, and opening the front door for the first time to the critical gaze of these professional appraisers is akin to exposing oneself in public. Of course they're going to be polite. Of course they're going to find something (however small) to pick on and praise. Of course they're going to say how keen they are to market the property. But what do they really think? http://doerupperdiary.blogspot.co.uk/2014_10_01_archive.html Simon Ashwell. Savills Estate Agents. ITV Tonight show. 2007. Right. Modern property, guide price is £4 million pounds. Surrounded by an acre of landscape gardens. You've got 4 receptions rooms on the ground floor. Superb galleried entrance hall here. In the last recession, you got to the point where certainly on these larger houses.. you couldn't get rid of them. I mean they were seen as a liability. We were doing valuations on property where people had lost.. you know, a million pounds on the value of what they'd paid for it, and of course you know you could see that visibly affecting their body with the shock of it. Or US prime at the same time. PaulOctober 4, 2014 ….EXACTLY CORRECT …. This spike in escalating home prices was due to temporary lack of inventory, but the prices and sales are declining slowly. Once the reductions TAKE HOLD .. the price reductions will escalate …. WHY????? Because the REAL ESTATE SALES PEOPLE (Agents/Brokers) MUST MAKE A LIVING .. THEY WILL TELL THE SELLERS ANYTHING … ” Sorry — I can’t get you Top Dollar for your house… Sales are DECLINING” What the R.E. Agent/Broker is really saying is : ” I really need to SELL SOMETHING, I have bills to pay and I need to make a quick sale on your p.o.s. House — I need my money FIRST … You can take your FANTASY PROFIT that we promised you when you signed the Listing Agreement and just “eat your heart out” ….. TOUGH LUCK FOR YOU…. I NEED MY COMMISSION, IT’S TIME TO DISCOUNT YOUR damn PROPERTY”. *** AND THAT IS EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT.**** Just go back and take a look at 1991 to 1996 California R.E. Statistics, I lived through it and bought a house at 75% discount. I saw how desperate and hungry the Agents and Brokers were — THEY ONLY CARED ABOUT THEIR COMMISSION….. REALITY RETURNS TO US AGAIN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 33% inflation since 2007. No way! Much less. Its 1% now and it was -ve in 2009 The inflation data is apparently ONS, I didn't make the chart so it may have been entered incorrectly but I would also suggest that the ONS data is itself heavily flawed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I work in Canary Wharf but only 2 of my colleagues live full time anywhere within the tube map - both are single young professionals who happen to be immigrants from well off backgrounds & both live in zone 2 single bedroom flats - one rented at an eye-watering £1300 a month (but earns a salary to support that) and the other lives in a flat bought outright for them as a student by their family. Wealthy and influential families from China/India seem to aspire to send their kids over here to work in London. Indian and Chinese lending multiples are up to 10x, which their banks will apparently loan on our market? We might scoff at 'its different this time' but with foreign buying power involved to an increasing extent, I suspect it just might be for zones 1-3. In my (annecdotal) experience, it isn't wealthy/aspirational English people buying a lot of this stuff at these preposterous prices, so rules on mortgage mutiples are irrelevent. Perhaps a wider global bubble needs to burst rather than a local one to take out the price hikes in the centres of 'global cities' like London. All the better for UK banks when the HPC come eh. Less exposure - not UK banks problem. UK banks (maybe with exception of a few like Nationwide, but maybe they're just pulling in the entitled dreg victim buyers who they can squeeze later?)..... going to just sit back in wonder at trillions of owner outright equity, and other non-UK banks that area holding the debt... and UK banks getting ever less little mortgage income? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 The inflation data is apparently ONS, I didn't make the chart so it may have been entered incorrectly but I would also suggest that the ONS data is itself heavily flawed... Also the CPI/RPI have been much larger than the disposable wage. Which have been actually falling ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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