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JohnnySW18

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About JohnnySW18

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  1. Final post from me for a while. If i want brownie points on this site I have worked out I need to type in bold letters, preferably in red, things like 'crash and burn' and 'that (data) means 60% falls year-on-year', etc. But that's not really happening is it? If I suggest that a sellers strike will hold prices up then I am told that 'prices move in the margins, so a HPC will happen any day now', But it has not (unless I have missed something?). Last month the count and I had an exchange where basically I said HPC = <10% in London by December 2015. and he said 'no, I predict 60%'. I guess 12 months from December 2014 LR data will give us a clear bench mark to be able to judge who has a better understanding of HPI. the housing market, and human psychology. I used to respect this site for a balanced view of what is actually happening in the housing market. But it seems it has just become some sort of fetish site to clutch at straws. Bye for now Johnny
  2. Suntory - my point (or question really) was that whether the new downloadable background LR data table index is really a meaningful figure to use to extrapolate a HPC forecast trajectory upon. It fluctuates so much month-on-month that it seemed to me it can only be based on some sort of simple average of prices paid data. Personally, I do not think Hackney prices using the repeat sales LR method were (during the period covered, including lag) doing anything other than at best being static and more likely starting to fall. I also think we had a lot of evidence (on this forum for one) that K&C did not have continued massive HPI between Juuly and November 2014. But that's not what data set implies. My ooohs and ahhhs were an attempt a humor. But I won't give up the day job just yet...
  3. I too downloaded the data table. It seems to be some sort of a simple average of monthly sale prices, converted to an index figure, rather than anything more sophisticated? K&C June 2014, 753 on the index. Ahhhh.... July 2014 drops to 649. Ooooh.... Nov 2014 back up to 751. Ahhhh... Jan 2015, falls to 577. Ooooh.... Extrapolating annualized HPC forecasts from that data will turn you into the 'we must appease the wee-fi' monsters from the telly. Hackney, December 2014, 775. Oooh.... January 2015, 816. Ahhhh....
  4. 12 boroughs negative month-on-month, down from 15 last month! But overall London -0.2%. Can not remember the last time that went negative. London transaction volumes nose diving. Fits with my own theory of how the London HPC will pan out - sellers (and buyers) strike but small drip drip price reductions for 2015. Happy to be proved wrong, but fear I will not be.
  5. Supply is up significantly on early 2013 in most areas of London, but not by quite as much as SW8, where the increase is almost entirely accounted for by the redevelopment of Battersea Power Station and its environs.
  6. It is pretty obvious there is / will be a massive oversupply of these new build 'luxury' flats, and also that the pool of 'canny' foreign investors willing to speculate on them has dried up. But I am not sure how much impact there will be in terms of the main indices. Since they are not re-sales I assume a reduction in asking for a new 'luxury' 2-bed from, say, 850k to 650k, will not show in LR data (though in time some actual re-sales will soon no doubt begin feeding in). Also, I would not imagine they are generally being financed by a UK mortgage, so not in Haliwide data? A crash in new build will not, however, be unwelcome in terms of helping check some of the HPI-forever mentality in the media and should also generally (further) reduce appetite from foreign investors to buy London property, some of which is not of course new build and this will help reduce overall demand for London property of any type, both of which should help with (further) downward pressure on the main indices. But the interesting perspective for me, when these new developments do start to lie empty, developers start to go bust, and all the land banks that have not been started are mothballed, is a) how the TBTB reconcile that with the 'we are not building enough homes in London' position, which is frequently used as a smokescreen to hide the real reasons for HPI, and what action they will take, if any, to try and bail them out.
  7. The 500-800k terraces are (were) typically being bought by 'second steppers', using all their equity from the sale of their previous London starter flat(s), often with help from BOMAD (or inheritance) on top, and still needing a hefty 4-5 x joint income mortgage to 'live the dream'. The contribution of equity, in particular in respect of the current London mega-bubble, is seldom mentioned on this forum. In my view it has probably been pumping just as much money into London HPI (not Prime) as our 'canny' Chinese investors and BTL and the like.
  8. The Crash might indeed be great... When it comes. So far we have the LR outturn data showing some small (1-2%) price drops over the last 3-4 months. We have ZIRP, bank forbearance and no mass job losses ensuring there are few distressed sales. ZIRP also ensures that those who have massively overstretched on mortgages (to live in or as BTL) not generally in any difficulty. There is still an endless supply of new immigrants to keep BTL going (with no further Housing benefit reforms in sight) and generally keep rent-out-if-I-can-not-sell as an option for mover uppers. The Government (of any colour) will still be a massive VI in HPI (or at least anti-HPC) and will have plenty of tools they can still use to support prices / limit falls e.g. review of and scrap MMR based on any downturn in sales volumes or prices, invent HTB3, HTB4, HTB5, etc. Of particular concern, there is still a massive mentality problem that house prices always go up in the long terms, which has been re-enforced by the recent London mega-bubble, and can be seen quite clearly here - http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/a2308704-to-tell-my-friend-I-think-shes-making-a-huge-mistake-buying-an-ex-council-studio-flat-for-200k-on-the-outskirts-of-London-at-35-when-she-doesnt-earn-much Which is exactly the sort of mentality that plenty of BOMADS also continue to have. So whilst there will be some distressed sellers (Divorce, Death, etc.) there will still be plenty of mugs still paying over the odds to 'balance' price falls that show the indices. Where I do not see much in the way of options is for the all the new 'luxury' apartments flooding the market, particularly in London. They are being built for foreign buyers who it seems are now very thin on the ground. But I am not sure prices falling here will affect the indices much i.e. if its not built yet, down tools and land bank so not to realise the loss on the bank sheet (just as they did in 2008-09), if it is built sell at a lower price than hoped for, but if that was 30% above London mega-bubble in the first place, and it is not a resale, then how much will it affect the indices? I also personally think the prices in those new developments are so far out of kilter with even the London mega-bubble prices that a much quicker HPC in that sector and / or developers going bust will not be related to 'general' London property prices by those who live here. In fact, I would also not be at all surprised if the Government (or Boris?) would not come up with some kind of taxpayer funded 'scheme' to bail these London schemes out in some shape or form with taxpayer money. So for me, the best the forthcoming HPC will be is a return to the much longer drawn out process of small but sustained nominal price falls. We have not even got the inflation we had in 1989-1994 to mask even bigger falls...
  9. The methodology of the LSL data - a simple mean price average of sales in each borough in each month - means it is a very poor indices to try and extrapolate trends from. In the previous monthly report they issued (November 2014) Kensington & Chelsea was up 5.3% month-on-month, which on an extrapolation basis would have implied something in the region of 85% annual growth on its way. I didn't notice that being highlighted on this forum. The current report a monthly increase of 3.8% in Brent, so clear evidence that HPI forever and that our Russian billionaires have just moved 3 miles north-west of Chelsea? Personally I don't think so.
  10. The LSL tables seem odd to me in that in many cases they differ significantly from LR data e.g. LSL have K&C average for December 14 at £1.8m against Land Registry average in latest HPI report of £1.32m.
  11. The home.co.uk figures are based on average asking price of homes advertised for sale on their site. The LR sales indices are not reflecting those price changes at all. Walworth is not prime. It is one of the worst and cheapest areas of Southwark, which incidentally is up 20% in 2014 based on LR data. Though it did experience its first monthly fall in the latest outturn data - of 0.1% between November and December. Prime London actual sales data is still up double-digit in 2014. This is based mainly on Jan - Aug HPI, as in most cases it is down by 1-3% from the 2014 high as at December 2014, which is of course good. But I think the it may be a bit premature to time to close this particular discussion thread.
  12. Thanks, Digsby. It is interesting and can be read one of (at least) two ways i.e. a massive increase in.... Those desperate to sell before the bubble bursts, or because it is a forced sale, who will presumably chase the market price down, or Kite-flyers hoping to cash in on current bubble but have actually missed the peak in terms of opportunity to sell If the former, then price falls should rapidly accelerate. If the latter then, on my London HPC profile view, they will mostly either just sit there continuing to kite fly and / or be withdrawn. If a mix of both and some of the kite-flyers also continue to find mugs then the indices will reflect the averages of the prices achieved by all.
  13. This is what I am talking about. For those areas, total price changes in 4 months (August - December) - Lambeth - up 1%(!) Camden - down 3% Kensington - down 1% Recent London HPI is now clearly over. But in these three areas, as you say, even volumes are still somehow holding up. Without a black swan event the price indices moves will I suggest only be marginal (and downward) but volumes should fall quicker, which seems to be indicated by the Prime London sales report you cited. I think someone else already posted that the main YOY indices will not turn negative for many months even with some more pronounced falls. Many London sellers (and buyers) will not accept any price falls are embedded until we get to that stage, and others will be in denial for longer than that. Even during 2008-09 an analysis of sold data for most areas of the UK showed that although the average price was falling there were still plenty of individual transactions where some mug was still paying at or close to 2007 peak prices.
  14. SW16 LR sales volumes - June 14 - 93 July 14 - 145 Aug 14 - 184 Sep 14 - 131 Oct 14 - 84 Nov 14 - 87 Dec 14 (registered so far) - 42 This supports the view that the 'peak' was Spring 2014 i.e. take the same 6-12 weeks back from the Aug 14 high. SW16 average LR sale price - May 14 - 410k June 14 - 408k July 14 - 397k Aug 14 - 392k Sep 14 - 411k Oct 14 - 405k I do not have LR average figures for Nov 14. So it appears to me that the significant fall in sales volumes (and by implication viewings and offers?) that started in summer / autumn 2014 is not (yet) impacting SW16 sales prices as much as one would assume it should. And for our (proper) HPC to get underway it is by definition necessary that it is. The profile of my own view of the forthcoming London HPC is sustained significant reductions in volume of transactions with sustained but less significant reductions in price (for the various reasons I have been suggesting i.e. continued ZIRP and seller mentality), and in terms of timing, that is has already started. Using SW16 data and watching LR data for price and sales volume outturn over the coming months will give me my own proxy to monitor this.
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