Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Billy Ray Valentine

Members
  • Content Count

    759
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Billy Ray Valentine

  • Rank
    HPC Regular

Recent Profile Visitors

506 profile views
  1. The general consensus is that around 20% of people who are infected will have to be hospitalised. The critical/serious numbers on the worldometer site are I believe those in intensive care, i.e. on a ventilator.
  2. I think most people overlook this crucial point. The toll that will be taken on staff will itself become exponential, the more that get sick and have to self-isolate, receive treatment or die, not to mention the fatigue and mental duress which will set in, will make a massive difference to overall mortality rates due to declining quality of treatment.
  3. I think this is how it will be as well. Masks will be mandatory before lockdown is lifted anyway and they will continue to be mandatory for periods of time. These will be extended by the Government bit by bit in the same way as lockdown will be extended bit by bit. At the same time testing will become more widespread and from that contract tracing can take place to contain any 'smaller' outbreaks if and when they occur. Teachers will be tested more regularly as will their spouses. Large gatherings such as sporting events and concerts won't be allowed for 12 months following lifting of the lockdown. Hand sanitiser dispensers will be installed at all public places around the country, with heavy penalties for the vandalising of them. There will be a mini-boom in the cleaning industry, city streets will be sprayed and cleaned on a day by day basis. The mandatory wearing of masks can eventually be lifted when there have been no more 'mini outbreaks' for a certain period, which may be a matter of months. These are only my thoughts, and only some of the things I can see happening is it all plays out.
  4. Correct. This would have also caused the economy to crash as well so as you say, the country is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
  5. If the stats are 'accurate' then Vietnam have only 218 confirmed cases. They are in a position where heavy testing can still be vitally important in tracking where the virus is spreading and putting smaller parts of the country into lockdown to contain it. Widespread testing for the U.K isn't a priority anymore, the virus has spread and full lockdowns are the only way to deal with it, it's the same with most countries. If it was done 6-8 weeks ago widespread testing and contract tracing would have made a massive difference.
  6. Friend of a family member has told them her terminally ill dad has had an operation which would have prolonged their life cancelled too.
  7. They're testing for COVID-19: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing#Detection_of_virus If the numbers given in the table here are reliable it would pour water on the theory that there are thousands let alone millions, of asymptomatic cases. For example, 10 days ago Spain had tested 355'000 people of which 25'000 tested positive. As of yesterday, Italy had tested 437'000 people of which 101'000 had tested positive. You can see why Governments all over the world are taking such drastic measures judging by these stats.
  8. I think most volunteers will end up speaking to an old dear on the phone a few times a week to check up on her, and to pick up her groceries if you've got a car, they're not expecting people to get mucking in at A&E. If anything I feel they're playing it down a little to try and stop panic. The fact that people are informing on their neighbour for walking their dog in a field indicates that people would freak out if they were told they had to be quarantined for 3 months straight and couldn't go anywhere without a pass and the mandatory wearing of masks, not to mention that the Government themselves don't even know how deadly this virus is.
  9. I would suggest the amount of medical personnel dying from the virus indicates that this is the case.
  10. Just because they have 'symptoms' doesn't mean they have COVID-19. As of yesterday the U.K had tested 134'000 people, with only 22'000 testing positive. The vast majority of those tested would have been displaying 'symptoms'. The chances are the people you know who are self isolating don't have COVID-19.
  11. Did the early predictions take into account lock downs and quarantines? Resolved cases in Spain number 24'500. 31% of resolved cases are deaths. There are still 63'500 active cases (which will very likely continue to keep rising) of which 5'200 are classed as 'critical'. The death toll is going to be significantly higher than what it currently is.
  12. Estimates. The best guideline at the moment is resolved cases. Italy have 26'200 resolved cases. 41% of those (over 11'500) have resolved in the patients death. They currently have 4'000 in critical condition, at least half of which will resolve themselves in the patients death. If every one of their 75'000 active cases (which includes the 4'000 critical) resolved in the patient recovering, and they had absolutely no new cases from here on in, the death rate of confirmed cases in Italy would be 11%. If the COVID-19 mortality rate was 0.2% that would mean a mere 5 million would have been infected in Italy, 8.5% of their population. Without widespread testing the theory that there have been 4.9m other cases of COVID-19 that have had either very mild symptoms or or asymptomatic. At this point all of this is nothing but guesswork and speculation, nobody knows how many people have been infected. The death toll in the areas which are quarantined and in lock down will be at least 20'000. Wouldn't surprise me if it was more than 30'000. That's just from the current confirmed cases. These areas account for about 1/5 of the countries population. Without the quarantine and lock downs, and just letting the virus take its course, it's not difficult to speculate the death total could have run into the many hundreds of thousands.
  13. To add to the debate about masks: In Austria it is going to be compulsory to wear them to go into a grocery store. I wonder if Austria have got their own experts advising the Government? As I've said, they will be common place if not outright mandatory soon enough and with very good reason.
  14. Those would be excellent, as long as you don't re-use them or thoroughly disinfect them if your are able.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.