The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

[leonardratso]

ahuh

[GreenDevil]

10 hours ago, oracle said:

thr cryto sniper is another guy you need to watch. again VERY accurate with his prediction.

He is too hindsight.

Perhaps if you pay for his premium you may get better content, but if you just follow his you tube vids he just analyses what 'has already happened'.

Edited March 17, 2018 by GreenDevil

[markyh]

Only time will tell the truth. This thread was revived around Summer 2017.  Be interesting to see the discussions and where we are come December 2018. If Crypto is flat then this thread will do into hibernation again for a few years, and the Holders will HODL again, waiting for the next round of reasons why $50k is a bubble and $1k or $20k wasn't.

[ThePrufeshanul]

57 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

He is too hindsight.

Perhaps if you pay for his premium you may get better content, but if you just follow his you tube vids he just analyses what 'has already happened'.

Any recommendations about who to watch instead GD?

[narco]

36 minutes ago, markyh said:

Only time will tell the truth. This thread was revived around Summer 2017.  Be interesting to see the discussions and where we are come December 2018. If Crypto is flat then this thread will do into hibernation again for a few years, and the Holders will HODL again, waiting for the next round of reasons why $50k is a bubble and $1k or $20k wasn't.

2017 was a once in a lifetime event. It was the bubble to end all bubbles. 

Every single coin went up 1000% upwards including shite like Ripple, Dogecoin and every other obscure Alt on the list. 

You can guarantee this isn't going to happen next time round. The vast majority of these coins will disappear from exchanges and flatline into oblivion with a lot of people burnt to a crisp. 

The coins that will perform will be ones at the cutting edge (probably DAG based) or a technology that's completely revolutionary. The coin will need to be instant, free, scalable (on chain), decentralised with privacy.

There isn't a coin out there yet that meets all of this criteria, so there is massive opportunity for those who invest in such a coin before it goes mainstream. 

Edited March 17, 2018 by narco

[jiltedjen]

We are at £5,795 i see personally resistance at £4,500 ($6,200) if that fails then it's not ideal, but below that level some value is finally creeping back.

so begins the next slow dull 3 years for Bitcoin. I think it will settle and flat-line around the £4,500 mark, could easily be lower than that.

my mining payouts have halved.

Looking on ebay there are a lot of rigs with descriptions along these lines:

" New rig built new end of December with a mate, cost us £5,800 to build, we want £5,500 for it. Have all the bills to show what we paid for it and what its worth" with no bids at £2,000. 

These people bought the cards when they were super expensive and card prices were in massive bubbles, bought brand new, and now trying to get out with a small profit. But they can't, they will eat their thousands of pounds losses. 

I build my rig using cheapo second hands cards, and will continue to mine for the next few years, im already well in the black with by 2013 bitcoin investments so happy days, its a fun little hobby. 

but i guess thats the nature of bubble all over, people get silly, they get burnt. They build crazy expensive rigs, they buy alt coins.
Have no faith of belief.
 
I like bitcoin as a wealth re-distributor from the old to the young, from the corrupt central bankers to the individuals, but a lot of the time is just plain morons throwing money at holders. 

Its a lot like housing, those who bought houses to rent out around 2000 were probably pretty savy, say the fundamentals, they didnt buy in bubbles they were not the stupid money. Then we get shed load of moron BTL lemmings rushing to buy, well they will rush to sell just the same. the losses will be large.


 

[narco]

6 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

We are at £5,795 i see personally resistance at £4,500 ($6,200) if that fails then it's not ideal, but below that level some value is finally creeping back.

Good post. 

As for the low, I see extreme value at $1,365 and will take a punt on a full coin or two if we get there.

Even when the current crop of blockchain coins fall away, Bitcoin will surely still have some value for a long time. It just wont take over the world as some are suggesting. 

In terms of mining rigs, I don't see any future in them. Mining wont exist in the next cycle due to the new crop of coins that don't require it. 

[Kosmin]

13 hours ago, markyh said:

Once more and more people become aware of Bitcoin and it's benefits and want in, demand alone will easily get BTC to $50k. It only needs 2.5 x as many people wanting in at December 17th 2017, and bam you r are at £50k because you cant make or print Bitcoin at will to meet demand. And even @ $50k it will be a very small amount of the worlds population holding Bitcoin.

How many people aren't aware of bitcoin and have liquid assets they could use to buy bitcoin? I don't think many. I think most people have heard of bitcoin, but those who haven't will mostly be older (so have most of their money tied up in their property or in very low risk savings).

I think the main hope for big price increases is that rich people or institutions start allocating serious money to bitcoin. But I don't see what they are waiting for, so the fact there doesn't appear to be any action over the last few months makes me very doubtful it will happen.

[narco]

A website tracker for the current crypto collapse. Some absolute stinkers on there. 

https://athcoinindex.com/

TRON -91%

Verge -90%

Cardano -87%

Ripple -83%

Dash -75%

Bitcoin -60%

[narco]

33 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

I think the main hope for big price increases is that rich people or institutions start allocating serious money to bitcoin.

This type of investment is Bitcoin's only hope of rising. It definitely wont be due to mass adoption of the coin being peer to peer digital cash.

Anyone who has had the misfortune of dealing with this coin for day to day transactions will understand. Buying BTC just to move it to an exchange is a miserable experience. 

[Sneaker]

42 minutes ago, narco said:

A website tracker for the current crypto collapse. Some absolute stinkers on there. 

https://athcoinindex.com/

TRON -91%

Verge -90%

Cardano -87%

Ripple -83%

Dash -75%

Bitcoin -60%

I want to start a crypto-coin called VASELINE symbol LUBE.  Its sole purpose is to short all other cryptos.

Because you are going to need to dip your ass in a tub of lube if you are still long any of this nonsense.

[markyh]

33 minutes ago, narco said:

This type of investment is Bitcoin's only hope of rising. It definitely wont be due to mass adoption of the coin being peer to peer digital cash.

Anyone who has had the misfortune of dealing with this coin for day to day transactions will understand. Buying BTC just to move it to an exchange is a miserable experience. 

I have cashed out of BTC every week since 9th Feb from Nicehash to Kraken. It's simple, the nicehash 2FA security is the biggest ballache, after that you wait until midnight and the BTC arrives at Kraken anywhere from 2 hrs to 12 hrs was the longest wait, for $70-$200 worth. 

All pretty painless. The SEPA transfer out of Kraken from € to £ takes longer and is a minimum 24hrs.

[markyh]

4 minutes ago, Sneaker said:

I want to start a crypto-coin called VASELINE symbol LUBE.  Its sole purpose is to short all other cryptos.

Because you are going to need to dip your ass in a tub of lube if you are still long any of this nonsense.

They said they same in 2014, and the 4 times before that. Time will tell. 

[markyh]

1 hour ago, jiltedjen said:

my mining payouts have halved.

Looking on ebay there are a lot of rigs with descriptions along these lines:

" New rig built new end of December with a mate, cost us £5,800 to build, we want £5,500 for it. Have all the bills to show what we paid for it and what its worth" with no bids at £2,000. 

 

What do you search on ebay to find these rigs? can you post a few links?, I may see if I can grab some bargains. My mining profits are still 2 x the cost of leccy even with the recent drop if $/BTC price, and my GFX cards are shifted onto long term 0% credit card deal just chipping away with the min payment monthly.

I may bid on some non reserve auctions if I can pick up rigs for 30p in the £1.

[goldbug9999]

1 hour ago, narco said:

This type of investment is Bitcoin's only hope of rising. It definitely wont be due to mass adoption of the coin being peer to peer digital cash.

Mass adoption of any crypto for peer to peer cash is still years way.

[narco]

Stellar making a reverse moonshot straight to $0.07 from almost $1.00

[Pitchfork]

4 hours ago, markyh said:

What do you search on ebay to find these rigs? can you post a few links?, I may see if I can grab some bargains. My mining profits are still 2 x the cost of leccy even with the recent drop if $/BTC price, and my GFX cards are shifted onto long term 0% credit card deal just chipping away with the min payment monthly.

I may bid on some non reserve auctions if I can pick up rigs for 30p in the £1.

Just search for mining rig and select auction only.

You have to ask the question, why would anyone sell a mining rig if its profitable? Unless they want the money to go towards a cryptonight ASIC.

Lots are bailing out and selling to the greater fool while the prices of GPU's are high.

[jiltedjen]

I think they believe they have enough time to exit with a profit on their super expensive rigs.

They are soon going to meet Mr Market just the same as the BTL mugs are. 

Would you buy a rig almost at full December price now? maybe not, but might do at 60% discount.

Im keeping an eye on these rigs and GPU prices moving forwards, give it until mid summer when they cant stand the heat anymore, and some bargains to be had. 

[GreenDevil]

1 hour ago, Pitchfork said:

Just search for mining rig and select auction only.

You have to ask the question, why would anyone sell a mining rig if its profitable? Unless they want the money to go towards a cryptonight ASIC.

Lots are bailing out and selling to the greater fool while the prices of GPU's are high.

Mining is defo unprofitable now. Has been for about 2 months now and the last month even more so. I turned of mine last month after the cold snap, but now they are back on, not for crypto but to heat the house. When it warms up theyll be off again.

[alifelessbinary]

22 hours ago, markyh said:

What drove Apples share price the make them the biggest company in the world? People wanted "in" on their products. If only 1/2% of the worlds population had an Apple product their share price would be far, far lower. 

Once more and more people become aware of Bitcoin and it's benefits and want in, demand alone will easily get BTC to $50k. It only needs 2.5 x as many people wanting in at December 17th 2017, and bam you r are at £50k because you cant make or print Bitcoin at will to meet demand. And even @ $50k it will be a very small amount of the worlds population holding Bitcoin.

We shall see later in the year, some just cant accept it, they will always scream bubble as we go through more higher and higher boom and bust cycles, making new higher floor level prices each time. 

As a HODL I will automatically be eating humble pie if we end 2018 with Bitcoin not above $20k and at $4k or below. If we ever get back to the $400 I paid then I will be forced to admit why didn't I run away will a £100k gain from a £2k stake 3 years earlier.

But then £100k is never gonna change my life, bit less mortgage, paid for extension, Tesla Model X or S instead of a model 3 in 2020, few holidays. It would all be gone in 5 years. , swapped for assets, appreciating and depreciating. 

But £5 million gainz within 10 years. That's proper luxury give up work early retirement and children and grandchildren set for life type money managed well. I think anyone would stake £2k on that dream.

My issue is that those who got in at a sensible level, when the functionality and promise at least had some semblance with the price now require new players to drive ever higher prices. Surely you can’t be saying that Bitcoins price is linked purely to the amount of people who know about it?

It appears that the speculators have trashed Bitcoins credibility, as they have driven the price to unrealistic levels. The resulting volatility will scare off the next generation of HODLers, until it has proven it’s much touted function of Gold 2.0. How it performs in the next financial crash will be fundamental to whether it hits the highs that you mention. QE has created bubbles in all asset classes which has benefited Bitcoin hugely as people seek returns not achievable through the historical norms.

I respect your view on why you have gone long Crypto, as while I’m a big fan of diversification and the get rich slowly approach, the only true route to great wealth (quickly) is through a concentration approach. Saying that £100k if managed correctly becomes a pretty monsterious sum once compounded over a decade or two. While it might not have a huge impact on your lifestyle you could max out your kids ISAs and pensions setting them up nicely.

At this point the life changing gains are no longer on the table for new entrance and unless Bitcoin can achieve the level of functionality that is much hyped by some I can’t see any upward trend in the foreseeable future. 

I’m going to guess that it will end the year below $7000. 

 

[Will!]

4 minutes ago, alifelessbinary said:

My issue is that those who got in at a sensible level, when the functionality and promise at least had some semblance with the price now require new players to drive ever higher prices. Surely you can’t be saying that Bitcoins price is linked purely to the amount of people who know about it?

Price movements in bubbles have some similarities to the epidemiology of outbreaks of infectious diseases,  in particular the number of 'susceptible' people (those who might buy Bitcoin / those who might catch the disease).

[evetsm]

The internet in 1969 :

[evetsm]

The relationship is still rock solid :

txns->users->Metcalf's Law->price

[evetsm]

If you believe that we will remain stuck in 1969, I have a bridge to sell you.

[Sneaker]

12 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

I think they believe they have enough time to exit with a profit on their super expensive rigs.

They are soon going to meet Mr Market just the same as the BTL mugs are. 

Would you buy a rig almost at full December price now? maybe not, but might do at 60% discount.

Im keeping an eye on these rigs and GPU prices moving forwards, give it until mid summer when they cant stand the heat anymore, and some bargains to be had. 

In a gold-rush, you make money selling shovels.  Same old same old.