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House Price Crash Forum


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About Sneaker

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  1. When childcare & housing are so expensive, is it any wonder people aren't having kids? We've outsourced childbearing to that influx of gorgeous, fertile Polish women. And well done them because without them we'd really be sunk. http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/161201,Polands-baby-boom-in-UK
  2. There's lots of stuff about this online. We all know about it. Yet debate consistently hinges on if and how to tax the onshore wealthy - even if we all know about the "squeezed middle" (i.e. our middle classes are seriously broke). So taxes are brought in in the name of clobbering the rich but are by the onshore middle classes -- who are already broke. It's not, say, City bankers buying up new-build luxury apartment blocks. It's a whole load of other people. And all the while the offshore super-wealthy simply enjoy the spectacle. Why are we so blind to the elephant in the room? It's even announced itself, yet we won't see it. http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-hong-kong-property-investors-go-trophy-hunting-in-london-despite-brexit-2017-8
  3. And of course things that move at the speed of an internet packet are difficult - and sometimes even impossible - to tax. Many in the Offshore Class got rich because they understood this more quickly than governments did.
  4. US tax changes mean that Offshore Dollars are heading over the USA. The Dollar rules everything. So this risks deflating anything dependent on them, and USD LIBOR (offshore dollar interest rate) is showing exactly the signs of distress one would expect from this...
  5. This stuff rumbling on about Russian oligarchs and Unexplained Wealth Orders is just one component of a much larger topic. Ever since Blair opened the UK's doors to Non Doms, we have had a third class in our midst. Debate on taxation misses it completely: raising the higher rate of income tax to, say, 50% is wide of the target -- because it will be paid only by onshore tax-payers, who aren't the people buying £140m apartments in Knightsbridge. But somehow this is ignored and politicians to-and-fro about the top rate of tax, when any such solution looks nothing like the problem. So why don't we explore this new class in our midst: the Offshore Class? They aren't high-wage professionals. They often don't work here. They don't vote and often pay little tax. They have full benefit of access to our nation and have distorted our housing market to an extraordinary degree. Yet governments of all persuasion have, until now, been interested in promoting their interests over citizens' needs for affordable housing. It's changing though and as far as I can tell, almost every factor that has brought them and their enormous (if questionable) wealth into the UK appears to have gone into reverse. Russian sanctions (link) Oil price crash - oil nations have switched from pushing out dollars to sucking them in (link) OECD crackdown on tax havens (link) Chinese crackdown on capital flight (link) Panama Papers (link) and Paradise Papers (link) Unexplained Wealth Orders mean no more "no questions asked" (link) Onshoring of fund industry (link) etc. There's also talk in political circles of putting estate agents under the same AML & KYC requirements as any other professional. This would mean estate agents can no longer turn a blind eye to dodgy cash (link) as they could end up in prison. Anyone care to comment on this?
  6. Prices weren't completely insane in 2007. The very brief house-price downturn into 2009 has been largely forgotten. Someone recently commented that house prices never went down and I asked them "what about 2009?" They didn't even have any idea that house-prices had taken a clobbering then. This was someone in their forties. And anyway, the government intervened to prop up the market not just with ZIRP but Help To Buy (whilst preaching free markets!). This time around we have a completely different picture. Almost everyone is calling for a solution to the housing crisis. Parties of all colours know they need to solve affordability: Labour to get more votes, Tories to stop the Labour surge, Lib Dems because they have always supported more building. Large amounts of building have been done. The eurozone is pulling out of recession and continental Europeans are going home. Brexit has made UK property a less attractive "investment" (read, speculative tool for the Offshore Class). Russia is under increasingly tough sanctions. China is cracking down on money leakage. OECD is bearing down on tax havens. The macro picture for house-prices is very different from 2007. It feels like a secular downturn has begun and could last many years. And that will be welcomed by anyone under 40 and anyone who has children.
  7. How about we re-phrase this to something more accurate? FT Advisor - Property market hampered by 'high prices'
  8. In a gold-rush, you make money selling shovels. Same old same old.
  9. No, no, no, No, NO! The masses are supposed to roll over and let the Offshore Class own everything. How come the NZ government has fallen out of line? It's supposed to be crushing its own people's futures, like every other major government has been happily doing.
  10. That 140 million pound apartment in Knightsbridge is 10,000 square feet. That's 14,000 quid a square foot. London used to be expensive at 500 pounds a square foot. Even today a grand a square foot is considered expensive. So that 140 million quid glass box on a polluted main road could drop 90% to 1,400 a square foot AND STILL BE EXPENSIVE.
  11. A stress-test is not an expectation. Risk management is about checking all possible scenarios and then constructing a plan for each. But that is nothing to do with saying any particular scenario is going to play out.
  12. I want to start a crypto-coin called VASELINE symbol LUBE. Its sole purpose is to short all other cryptos. Because you are going to need to dip your ass in a tub of lube if you are still long any of this nonsense.
  13. Spot on, my friend, spot on. Never-ending growth on its own is a pointless metric. If huge growth is only going into a small number of hands, it's going to create massive social tensions and - eventually - upheaval and maybe revolution. Nobody wants that. Quantity of growth matters, of course. A shrinking world is very dangerous. But growth has extra dimensions: quality and distribution. For example, unemployment statistics are at levels unseen since the 1970s. But this has been achieved by generating millions of low-paid, "gig economy" jobs; leaving the fruits of this achievement to the investors at the top of the pile. This is the same as how the Robber Barons of the 1900s made fortunes. It led to the rise of socialism and communism, the consequences of which are well known. So the digital world has created Digital Robber Barons. They've done nothing wrong. They've seized the new world. They saw how it would work. But it has now ended in such unequal distribution of wealth that we are seeing radical and extreme politics rising everywhere. Economists of all colours agree that the marginal utility of an extra dollar of income is the greatest in the hands of the poor: they can make previously unaffordable, essential purchases. That same dollar in the hands of the already-rich doesn't go anywhere particularly useful. And thus, the social consequences we see now. The puzzle, then, is to work out how to get the fruits of this new digital world into the hands of as many people as possible. And that involves not just creating growth, quantitatively; it means working out how to have good growth - qualitatively - and how to distribute that wealth widely.
  14. Not sure I agree! Just a few minutes on this excellent Forum will show you otherwise. And the internet let's you find out for yourself. So I'd say, sure, people who are intellectually lazy might believe that what we have now has always been the case. But the average person on this forum is far from intellectually lazy. Otherwise they wouldn't be here.
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