The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

[longgone]

19 hours ago, markyh said:

Do I regret not selling all @ £100k last December, sure, in hindshight, but then the wife would have wanted and extension, nice holiday, a new car then its all gone.

Then in 2020 when it passed $20k BTC again and onto $100k+ and I could have retired off it under 55, I would have seethed and hated her. The wife cant spend investments that are mine and out of her reach and understanding , but money in the bank, no chance of keeping it their.

It' it's never to be again I will accept it, when I retire, but somehow it see its got a lot further to go in the next 5 years. And if I wing it and am a basic rate tax payer when I can cash out with just a 10% CGC bill and be scott free of the taxman. 

LOL

[Quicken]

NB. For CGT, the capital gain is added to your other income to calculate the tax rate. I know - I have a significant crypto CGT bill this year (mostly at 20%).

[dragging boot straps]

4 hours ago, Drat said:

 

Is this still the denial phase?

What denial? Go look at interviews of Bill Gates talking about the internet 25 years ago. If something is better it always wins out. 

Xrp settles transactions globally in 3 seconds for thousandth of pence. The future is coming, try to deny that. 

Real time micro payments. Uber drivers paid by the second. Internet 2.0, no more adverts or subscriptions but browsing time charges. 

I see the future. My mortgage free house is testament to that. Get on board or look like the dinosaur interviewing Bill Gates. 

[AdamoMucci]

On 06/12/2018 at 16:46, markyh said:

but then the wife would have wanted and extension, nice holiday, a new car then its all gone.

LOL. You have poor judgement all over the shop dont you!

Sorry, but if she is the reason you didnt sell, she has cost you that money anyway. At least you would have had an extension, a holiday and a nice car.

I think the truth is £100k of free money wasnt enough for you. You wanted more. And that is the textbook greed that drives mania.

I said last year in this thread it is text book mania the comments and mentality surrounding this nonsense.

New paradigm
Dont get left behind
You just dont understand it
Outlandish price predictions
Etc etc etc...
These types of comments were all over this thread and on Youtube. Textbook TEXTBOOK mania.

Edited December 7, 2018 by AdamoMucci

[AdamoMucci]

These people talking about getting in on manias and getting out again at the right time are living in fantasy world. Its daydreamer stuff. None of these people would be profitable doing it over the long term. More productive things to be thinking about/doing.

[Black Rod]

Fantastically funny watching all this worthless code revert back towards it’s true value.

Bitcoin may have some role to play in the future, but I fear it has no real use currently.

I think the fact that even Crypto conferences refused to take it for payment was pretty damming.

I think all the Tether type manipulation by the big players didn’t help and I just can’t see anyone putting what I call ‘hurt’ money in. So that’s a big NO as a store of value.

 

[AdamoMucci]

In decades to come, historians will talk about Bitcoin in the same way they talk about the tulip mania. It just shows that, despite our admirable ability when it comes to technological advance, emotionally we have not evolved in thousands of years.

Edited December 7, 2018 by AdamoMucci

[longgone]

17 minutes ago, AdamoMucci said:

In decades to come, historians will talk about Bitcoin in the same way they talk about the tulip mania. It just shows that, despite our admirable ability when it comes to technological advance, emotionally we have not evolved in thousands of years.

indeed the clever ones use human emotion to their advantage time and time again. the game may change but the rules are the same.

[AdamoMucci]

8 minutes ago, longgone said:

indeed the clever ones use human emotion to their advantage time and time again. the game may change but the rules are the same.

 

Its actually a beautiful specimen when you look at it!

 

Edited December 7, 2018 by AdamoMucci

[longgone]

2 minutes ago, AdamoMucci said:

Its actually a beautiful specimen when you look at it! It could be on the front.

despair phase ?

[Jonesy74]

11 hours ago, longgone said:

despair phase ?

Entering stealth phase? Best time to buy right? ?

[dragging boot straps]

The people calling bubble are looking at things in too narrow a time frame. What about the countless other 90% crashes in the crypto market?

This is par for the course with nascent technology. Ultimately there is a hugely persuasive use case.

I keep using XRP as the example but I'm long on bitcoin also. You can SETTLE transactions in 3 to 5 seconds with zero error and close to zero cost. You can move billions of pounds for a thousandth of a pence, internationally. That's impressive. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, dragging boot straps said:

The people calling bubble are looking at things in too narrow a time frame. What about the countless other 90% crashes in the crypto market?

This is par for the course with nascent technology. Ultimately there is a hugely persuasive use case.

I keep using XRP as the example but I'm long on bitcoin also. You can SETTLE transactions in 3 to 5 seconds with zero error and close to zero cost. You can move billions of pounds for a thousandth of a pence, internationally. That's impressive. 

As is widely recorded here I am also big into $XRP as it does see real use.

Interestingly I was at a FinTech event this week and spoke with a few of the exchanges. Quite a few had a real downer on Bitcoin, one  guy telling me it is riddled with issues and is now heavily centralised etc etc.

That is either a sign the bottom is near, or that BTC will be replaced

 

[narco]

4 hours ago, dragging boot straps said:

The people calling bubble are looking at things in too narrow a time frame. What about the countless other 90% crashes in the crypto market?

This is par for the course with nascent technology. Ultimately there is a hugely persuasive use case.

I keep using XRP as the example but I'm long on bitcoin also. You can SETTLE transactions in 3 to 5 seconds with zero error and close to zero cost. You can move billions of pounds for a thousandth of a pence, internationally. That's impressive. 

You can do the same for zero cost and half the speed with Nano. 

XRP is a fraud and a turd. Not only a centralised ponzi where Ripple Corp own 60% of supply, there's other crap such as you need a 20 token lockup for every wallet. 

It's also a clear cut security so will end up being banned and delisted from exchanges. 

[longgone]

7 hours ago, dannyf said:

Entering stealth phase? Best time to buy right? ?

run for the hills on btc 

xrp hitting 10 cents is buy stage 

[markyh]

21 hours ago, AdamoMucci said:

 

Its actually a beautiful specimen when you look at it!

 

 

[markyh]

21 hours ago, AdamoMucci said:

 

Its actually a beautiful specimen when you look at it!

 

Yawn, I can find the same type of people as you from 2014 after the last crash saying the same things, posting the same charts and sitting on their hands, me got in in 2013/14 and turned £2k into £17k as of today, quite happy, willing to wait or go to zero. 

You just need to "look left" on you top chart to see the true pucture, but lets do it in figures, ignoring the big rises between blow off bubbles and long ultimate bottoms between cycles.

Bitcoin launched in 2009.

In 2010 it went from $0.06 to $0.36, then crashed to $0.21

in 2011 it went from $0.85 to $29, then crashed to $3 

in 2012/13 it went from $5 to $214 then crashed to $70

in 2013/14 (went I got in) it went from $70 to $1100, then crashed to $240

in 2016/17/18 it went from $431 to $20k , then cashed to $3200 (so far no idea if the bottom is in yet)

So then it will go something like. 

in 2019/20/2021 it went from $2400 to $200k, then crashed to $30k.

The morale of the story, don't sell during the market crashes, it will recover, until it doesn't, but whi knows when that will stop? no me, not you (well you think it has this time, like every one did in 2014/15).

You like everyone who doesn't like Crypto / Bitcoin and doesn't get it will keep sitting on your hands an preaching in a bear market and whining like stuck pigs in bull markets. So let's now wait until 2021 and see what happens. 

But for sure the sentiment is at an all time cycle low now and capitulation cant be far away, but then 90% of the bears on here posting now where not posting in 20113/14/15, and the Bears that did post all the "death of Bitcoin" stuff in 2014/15 are still around but choose not to post more bearish forecasts or comments as they got it very, very wrong. 

I'm perfectly prepared to say I got it wrong had £100k from £2k in 3 years and then it went to £0.  Meh, Shit happens. But my long term outlook for Crypto is up, and it's known I hold Bitcoin, XRP, Etherium, Litecoin, IOTA, EOS, BCH-ABC, BCH-SV, Bitcoin Gold and whatever other Bitcoin forks I didn't claim yet! 

 

[Kosmin]

20 minutes ago, markyh said:

Yawn, I can find the same type of people as you from 2014 after the last crash saying the same things, posting the same charts and sitting on their hands, me got in in 2013/14 and turned £2k into £17k as of today, quite happy, willing to wait or go to zero. 

You just need to "look left" on you top chart to see the true pucture, but lets do it in figures, ignoring the big rises between blow off bubbles and long ultimate bottoms between cycles.

Bitcoin launched in 2009.

In 2010 it went from $0.06 to $0.36, then crashed to $0.21

in 2011 it went from $0.85 to $29, then crashed to $3 

in 2012/13 it went from $5 to $214 then crashed to $70

in 2013/14 (went I got in) it went from $70 to $1100, then crashed to $240

in 2016/17/18 it went from $431 to $20k , then cashed to $3200 (so far no idea if the bottom is in yet)

So then it will go something like. 

in 2019/20/2021 it went from $2400 to $200k, then crashed to $30k.

The morale of the story, don't sell during the market crashes, it will recover, until it doesn't, but whi knows when that will stop?

It's not really clear what the moral of the story is. I think each of those booms is based on the projection of long term value*, so it's not obvious that this pattern will continue. Also if it does, is the end a boom and then plateau or 90% crash then plateau? It can't keep booming at that rate (if it did, by the time it was the most valuable currency/asset further booms wouldn't be feasible). This is something which inhibits adoption as a store of value. The barriers to adoption as medium of exchange are far more serious (if you were earning $20,000 per month, aren't you glad you didn't agree to be paid 1 bitcoin a month last year? If you were paying $1,000 per month on your mortgage, aren't you glad you didn't agree to pay 1 bitcoin per month instead, back when that was the price of bitcoin?)

Why do you think there hasn't been any significant buying in the last year? (No big institutional investors in spite of the launch of derivatives making it easier) Why do you think this will change?

 

* I think it's important to realise that a big reason for the expectation of crypto to take off is that fiat will collapse. There is no reason to expect that all major fiat currencies are going to collapse. This has never happened. Instead basket-cases (Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe) can't afford to meet their obligations (Germany had to reparations to France and it's industry was devastated by war, Venezuela expected oil to remain expensive). To think that the whole world will destroy themselves for no reason is not well supported, but this is what underlies bitcoin going to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

 

20 minutes ago, markyh said:

I'm perfectly prepared to say I got it wrong had £100k from £2k in 3 years and then it went to £0.  Meh, Shit happens.

This is not an argument about bitcoin. It is a statement that about your risk aversion (not very) and irrationality (that the risk of losing money depends on previous gains).

[markyh]

3 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

. It is a statement that about your risk aversion (not very) and irrationality (that the risk of losing money depends on previous gains).

i'm one of those people who doesnt need the money desperately, and have a far greater fear of selling out to early and missing even bigger gains than losing it all. 

I have always said will sell out 50% when 50% will clear my mortgage, but Bitcoin needs to be around $115k for that to happen so am prepared to wait, and each year past 2018 my target gets £24k lower!!

[goldbug9999]

On 06/12/2018 at 17:48, markyh said:

Well one of us will be full of bitterness and regret in 10 years time, could be me!!

I remember saying on this thread many years ago that Id rather regret blowing a few grand on something that came to nothing, than regretting not blowing a few grand on something that made it big.

I will just say "good luck" to all those who try to time markets of any sort, most of you are deluding yourselves that it can be done with any more than a 50/50 chance of success. Not that this is anything to be ashamed of its just human psyche is just too prone to see pattern where none exist and your imagination has a tendency to back-fit decisions after the fact "I remember thinking it was going to crash ..." well sorry no you probably didn't, your just imagining that you did [I suggest reading nassim taleb's Fooled By Randomness if you doubt this].

 

[goldbug9999]

OK so I am curios what the bitcoin/crypto skeptics think is going to happen going forward - do you think its all going to "zero" (lets call less than $100 zero for this purpose) ?. If yes then why now ? why not 5 years ago ? why not after any of the 4 (?) previous crashes ?. I mean how many times something have to crash 80% before everyone decides its a crap idea and goes home ?.

[Kosmin]

47 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

OK so I am curios what the bitcoin/crypto skeptics think is going to happen going forward - do you think its all going to "zero" (lets call less than $100 zero for this purpose) ?.

I don't think it can go to zero, because too many people think it has value. $100 might be possible.

 

47 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

If yes then why now ? why not 5 years ago ? why not after any of the 4 (?) previous crashes ?

The difference between the booms and crashes is there was an increasing awareness during each of them. People weren't watching the price go from nothing to $30 to $2, then buying. People who typically buying when they heard about it, or when they had researched it enough to think it was a good idea. There is little prospect of another boom based on wider awareness, as almost everyone is now aware of bitcoin (certainly everyone who has significant wealth or manages wealth has heard of it). The only possibility for the price to increase significantly is people who have already heard of bitcoin choose to buy when they have previously decided not to.

47 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

I mean how many times something have to crash 80% before everyone decides its a crap idea and goes home ?.

Markets don't work like this. Some people think gold is dog shit and people should only buy things with a yield. Others think its worth holding as part of a balanced portfolio and others have a high allocation.

 

[maverick73]

34 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

I don't think it can go to zero, because too many people think it has value. $100 might be possible.

 

The difference between the booms and crashes is there was an increasing awareness during each of them. People weren't watching the price go from nothing to $30 to $2, then buying. People who typically buying when they heard about it, or when they had researched it enough to think it was a good idea. There is little prospect of another boom based on wider awareness, as almost everyone is now aware of bitcoin (certainly everyone who has significant wealth or manages wealth has heard of it). The only possibility for the price to increase significantly is people who have already heard of bitcoin choose to buy when they have previously decided not to.

Markets don't work like this. Some people think gold is dog shit and people should only buy things with a yield. Others think its worth holding as part of a balanced portfolio and others have a high allocation.

 

It started at zero and it will go back to zero... too many suppliers and the currency can never work without central bank blessing. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

OK so I am curios what the bitcoin/crypto skeptics think is going to happen going forward - do you think its all going to "zero" (lets call less than $100 zero for this purpose) ?. If yes then why now ? why not 5 years ago ? why not after any of the 4 (?) previous crashes ?. I mean how many times something have to crash 80% before everyone decides its a crap idea and goes home ?.

I think BTC might go to a few Dollars, but not Zero, unless of course all mining stops - which is possible. I also see ETH dropping a lot (which it has already) - basically because whilst it is a nice idea, it isn’t scalable. 

For me XRP is the one with the clearest use case, and I am starting to wonder if XLM might start moving up to play second fiddle to XRP. I could see XLM passing ETH in due course, there is still a massive gap, but ETH at $40 and XLM back at $0.2 would close most of it.

 

 

 

[harp]

First ever reply on this thread, be patient.

We know the price of crypto has gone down.  But has the use of blockchain technology gone up?