Are House Prices On The Verge Of A Major Crash?

[rantnrave]

Manchester is down 10%

Until all those BBC types arrive with their London prices mentality...

[R K]

So curse anyone responsible for driving up the population and therefore the need to plaster crappy slaveboxes all over once-attractive places.

Back to earlier in the thread about Manchester crashing, well, yesterday's Land Registry figures for next door, Stockport, were positive

YOY of course is all relative to what happened April/May '10. i.e. the top of the 'bounce' following QE, ZIRP, bank nationalisations etc etc off the early '09 lows. Better to look at peak to trough I think for an overall picture due to this volatility.

[Tired of Waiting]

stockport is down 1.6% YoY, Manchester is down 10%

About a crash or not: Most of us think the gov.'s goal is probably a very soft landing, single digits, partially masked by inflation. The question is if they can manage that.

they have the banks, and the printers. If the Unions don't turn the table, if wages remain stable ( = IR can stay low), the gov. may even achieve something like limiting nominal falls to 10% or 15% in the next 2 years. Plus some 10% inflation = 20% - 25% real.

Difficult, but possible. No?

[Lepista]

Wrong - t'intertubes were invented under US military contracts in the 1940-50s. US gubmint still owns the system.

TBL devised the web with CERN. It's a subset of t'intertubes. The Europeans surrendered it into the public domain.

Of course, the investment couldn't have been made without the banks, so we should be eternally grateful to them for allowing the money to flow and letting the internet be invented.

[Lepista]

About a crash or not: Most of us think the gov.'s goal is probably a very soft landing, single digits, partially masked by inflation. The question is if they can manage that.

they have the banks, and the printers. If the Unions don't turn the table, if wages remain stable ( = IR can stay low), the gov. may even achieve something like limiting nominal falls to 10% or 15% in the next 2 years. Plus some 10% inflation = 20% - 25% real.

Difficult, but possible. No?

Inflation means zip (with regards to house prices) if wages don't increase. House price: wage ratio is still king.

[Si1]

About a crash or not: Most of us think the gov.'s goal is probably a very soft landing, single digits, partially masked by inflation. The question is if they can manage that.

they have the banks, and the printers. If the Unions don't turn the table, if wages remain stable ( = IR can stay low), the gov. may even achieve something like limiting nominal falls to 10% or 15% in the next 2 years. Plus some 10% inflation = 20% - 25% real.

Difficult, but possible. No?

agreed

[Tired of Waiting]

agreed

Sh!te. I was hoping you would have some good arguments forecasting deeper falls...

[davidg]

You do realise the difference between the "web" and the "internet", then?

Also Berners-Lee was part of a team (albeit leader) at CERN at the time - so the web was a pan-European development! Oh the horror.

I believe it was Donald Davies who invented packet switched networks of which the Internet is but one example, so technically it was the Welsh via the National Physics Laboratory. The Yanks copied Davies work. As an aside I used to work for the ARPA back in the 1980s.

[JPJPJP]

Don't worry, Phil & Kirsty have released an app

http://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/kirstie-phils-house-hunter/id444080922?mt=8

the world is saved

FFS, don't this pair ever give up?!

[benzlife]

Fixed.

They are b@stards.

The price isn't relevant. My point was to find out whether you believe that somehow the boomers act in this selfish way because they're boomers (i.e. their upbringing etc.), or because they own a house in a village where persimmon are going to put up 200 slaveboxes?

My argument is that my (our?) generation (early 30's in my case) would act in exactly the same way if we owned houses in the country. It's human nature to protect your own interests, and to expect a large number of individuals to act in altruistic ways for the betterment of society as a whole seems ridiculously naive. Society doesn't, nor has ever, worked in that way.

(edited to correct typos!)

Edited June 29, 2011 by benzlife

[Tired of Waiting]

The price isn't relevant. My point was to find out whether you believe that somehow the boomers act in this selfish way because they're boomers (i.e. their upbringing etc.), or because they own a house in a village where persimmon are going to put up 200 slaveboxes?

My argument is that my (our?) generation (early 30's in my case) would act in exactly the same way if we owned houses in the country. It's human nature to protect your own interests, and to expect a large number of individuals to act in altruistic ways for the betterment of society as a whole seems ridiculously naive. Society doesn't, nor has ever, worked in that way.

(edited to correct typos!)

These people travelled miles to protest against a new town:

They are fecking b@stards. No 2 ways about it.

And the price is NOT irrelevant actually. If someone paid £300k for a house in 2006, I can understand a bit better his/her NIMBYism than from someone who paid only £30k for a similar house 20 years ago.

And if you, or I, act in the same way in the future, then you or I will also be fecking b@stard. I won't.

[juvenal]

Don't worry, Phil & Kirsty have released an apphttp://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/kirstie-phils-house-hunter/id444080922?mt=8

the world is saved

FFS, don't this pair ever give up?!

Apparently they are the 'King and Queen of Property'....

[FloraPoste]

The price isn't relevant. My point was to find out whether you believe that somehow the boomers act in this selfish way because they're boomers (i.e. their upbringing etc.), or because they own a house in a village where persimmon are going to put up 200 slaveboxes?

My argument is that my (our?) generation (early 30's in my case) would act in exactly the same way if we owned houses in the country. It's human nature to protect your own interests, and to expect a large number of individuals to act in altruistic ways for the betterment of society as a whole seems ridiculously naive. Society doesn't, nor has ever, worked in that way.

(edited to correct typos!)

I read a memoir recently by someone born in the 1890s who got very exercised when the local council bought the meadow near her lovely country house in the 1960s and turned it into a playing field so rather than nothing but birdsong she occasionally had to listen to proles playing football and shouting, which upset her no end.

mind you the NIMBYism was even worse in the 1700s when the rich were erasing whole villages which spoiled the view.

[Si1]

Sh!te. I was hoping you would have some good arguments forecasting deeper falls...

well the one outstanding issue is that the SE is lagging the regions, and the most overpriced speculative parts of the regions have fallen >50% nominally (tho there are still those in denial); the posher more desirable parts are playing catchup.

So the nice parts of the North and the SE as a whole has seen minor falls SO FAR but I would expect a significant tho dampened retrenchment over the mdeium-long term, but I am loath to forecast anything over 3 years or so, it might, it might not

it's a b*tch, security/quality of tenure being the main issue

[Tired of Waiting]

well the one outstanding issue is that the SE is lagging the regions, and the most overpriced speculative parts of the regions have fallen >50% nominally (tho there are still those in denial); the posher more desirable parts are playing catchup.

So the nice parts of the North and the SE as a whole has seen minor falls SO FAR but I would expect a significant tho dampened retrenchment over the mdeium-long term,

Thanks!

but I am loath to forecast anything over 3 years or so, it might, it might not

I know, I understand.

My other thread (gov. deficits) has reinforced my views that we will have to go down. Though I have no fecking idea how / the shape/form of it. It could be sterling going down, and/or inflation, defaltion and recession again?! I have no idea really. Bit confused here today.

it's a b*tch, security/quality of tenure being the main issue

Yep. We are trying to find a 3 years letting contract. Ideally one that would allow future children and pets. Very difficult though. We are also considering buying something cheap, temporary, in Jan-Feb 2012. But around here the only cheap options are in really bad areas.

Edited June 29, 2011 by Tired of Waiting

[rentforlife]

So back to OP - are house prices on verge of a major crash?

Sadly, I dont think so - no sign of interest rate rises this year, little or no construction on the go, ensuring that availability remains low. England & particularly the SE is a very different place to Northern Ireland, or USA.

Those flats that are built however, continue to be snapped up by the BTL brigade - as those are the only ones banks will give mortgages to...

[Bruce Banner]

So back to OP - are house prices on verge of a major crash?

Sadly, I dont think so - no sign of interest rate rises this year, little or no construction on the go, ensuring that availability remains low. England & particularly the SE is a very different place to Northern Ireland, or USA.

Those flats that are built however, continue to be snapped up by the BTL brigade - as those are the only ones banks will give mortgages to...

Snap'em up .

[rentforlife]

Snap'em up .

I dont want a flat - only BTL brigade want those

[Ames]

I dont want a flat - only BTL brigade want those

And that's why there will be a crash

[Rare Bear]

Wrong.

http://en.wikipedia....Tim_Berners-Lee

Another bb count born after 1945 and representative of a generation who are without exception totally responsible for you sh1tty life.

I reckon that you'l find that Internet Protocol had had a lot more to do with the development of the Internet than HTTP, HTTP being just one of the things that runs on the net.

[@contradevian]

I dont want a flat - only BTL brigade want those

Are you sure? They buy small houses too you know and big ones for multiple occupation.

[Rare Bear]

I believe it was Donald Davies who invented packet switched networks of which the Internet is but one example, so technically it was the Welsh via the National Physics Laboratory. The Yanks copied Davies work. As an aside I used to work for the ARPA back in the 1980s.

ARPANET begat DARPANET begat The Internet, all leavened with UUCP.

[rentforlife]

These people travelled miles to protest against a new town:

They are fecking b@stards. No 2 ways about it.

And the price is NOT irrelevant actually. If someone paid £300k for a house in 2006, I can understand a bit better his/her NIMBYism than from someone who paid only £30k for a similar house 20 years ago.

And if you, or I, act in the same way in the future, then you or I will also be fecking b@stard. I won't.

Just had a look at their blogsite. I know we all look after number 1 first and foremost, but it beggars belief local planning & government bow down to pressure when we clearly need new homes building in significant numbers.

Probably the only time Ive ever agreed with anything that came out of John Prescotts mouth...

[Guest_flaps_*]

"Pathfinder" Prescott!!

[rentforlife]

Are you sure? They buy small houses too you know and big ones for multiple occupation.

I was referring to flats & the fact that only BTLeters seem to be the only ones who buy them - again referring to that it feels easier to get a BTL mortgage than a mortgage for a home.

Im sure they do buy small and big houses as well