#1 on West side Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 (edited) FTSE dropping 130 points in the last 4 hours, but that's nothing compared to the NIkkei: dropped 1400 points (over 15%) ... and the FTSE hasn't opened yet!! I love the smell of market panic selling in the morning... Edited March 15, 2011 by #1 on West side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#1 on West side Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 Talk about pressing the reset button... Back to March 2009 index. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyoto Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Talk about pressing the reset button... Back to March 2009 index. Jesus H Christ. A guy was on TV yesterday saying the markets would bounce back quickly. Glad I didn't follow his advice yesterday. Currently 9% down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dammfoolman Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 The following words (from another forum) sum up the ripple effects of the Japanese situation American homeowners--this is your last chance to refi. The near term low in UST yields will be the final bottom in yields.With the Japanese now effectively out of the world bond markets as buyers, who will buy the $1.5-$1.6 trillion of new government paper we will need to sell in the next year (let alone make up for the Japanese UST holdings which won't be rolled over since they will need to repatriate their money). With one of the world's largest net savers now out of the market who is going to pick up this slack? QE3 and QE4 are now certainties. But given the market's poor reaction to QE2 and the realization by most investors you can't print money forever, the two minute warning for the US Treasury market just rang and we are still down by multiple touchdowns. Game over shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Had to laugh at Pesto on last nights 10 pm news. Claim that Japanese had a self contained economy and it being in recession had little impact on us. He seemed to ignore the long standing carry trade of course, which had a fairly massive impact on asset prices I guess, and will probably have to go into reverse (if it already hasn't?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#1 on West side Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 Jesus H Christ. A guy was on TV yesterday saying the markets would bounce back quickly. Glad I didn't follow his advice yesterday. Currently 9% down. It certainly did bounce towards the end of the session (ending 6:30 UK time): From 7900 to 8700. Yeah... this is a reflection of the actual value of the stocks... NOT. Some people made/lost a lot of money in the last few hours... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamLancs Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Wow... the Nikkei. That's some move. I guess you have to remember the Nikkei has been going down for 20 years. These investors know how to crash a party. Meanwhile the Japanese Yen is stronger which in turn means Japan can buy more US bonds for their money. It's the circle of life. Or is A Bug's Life? If you replace the grasshoppers with the Americans, and the bugs with the Japanese. Puts another angle on it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frozen_out Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 After years of seeing folk on here call the 'black swan' event. I'm calling it now. This is it. The unforeseen game changer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silver surfer Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 I sold my shares in the Lloyds insurance group Catlin as soon as the markets opened Monday. I probably made a mistake. They only fell just over 3%, so when I buy back in (and I will) it'll barely cover dealing costs let alone the CGT exposure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Perspective! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papag Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 The intervention squads will be on Red alert today with freshly printed Dollars Pounds etc make no mistake about it , I will go for a close of down 125 on the FTSE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 After years of seeing folk on here call the 'black swan' event. I'm calling it now. This is it. The unforeseen game changer. It would appear that this could be the moment that crashes the markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicestersq Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 After years of seeing folk on here call the 'black swan' event. I'm calling it now. This is it. The unforeseen game changer. Are you technically allowed to call it, given that you didnt initiate this thread? I think we need an HPC ruling on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 The intervention squads will be on Red alert today with freshly printed Dollars Pounds etc make no mistake about it , I will go for a close of down 125 on the FTSE Yep, I really admire how the Japanese have largely left their stock markets alone during the turbulent last 4 years. I always looked to the Nikkei during the financial crisis to see what a natural market was doing when reacting to the dire news of the time. Yes it always got a lift from the manipulated US markets the following day but the night time sessions were very revealing. Gut feeling is they will use this as an opportunity to drop the Western markets and try and get commodities down along with inflation expectation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Yep, I really admire how the Japanese have largely left their stock markets alone during the turbulent last 4 years. I always looked to the Nikkei during the financial crisis to see what a natural market was doing when reacting to the dire news of the time. Yes it always got a lift from the manipulated US markets the following day but the night time sessions were very revealing. Gut feeling is they will use this as an opportunity to drop the Western markets and try and get commodities down along with inflation expectation. They might struggle with food, if the reactors create a large fallout cloud like Chernobyl then it's possible the food production areas of China could be impacted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeryMeanReversion Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 I sold all my Japanese stocks in my pension fund a month ago, will start buying now and keep buying if it goes down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#1 on West side Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 Could probably been worse... Circuit breakers were triggered AGAIN. Last trigger was on 13 March. Reuters Linky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikthe20 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Had to laugh at Pesto on last nights 10 pm news. Claim that Japanese had a self contained economy and it being in recession had little impact on us. He seemed to ignore the long standing carry trade of course, which had a fairly massive impact on asset prices I guess, and will probably have to go into reverse (if it already hasn't?). I saw that too - and shouted at the TV calling him a lying twit - woke up the missus! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nationalist Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 (edited) If the Japs want their yen back this could be dramatic. There must be at least half a trillion USDs worth of yen in the West at the moment. (A lot of them in OZ and NZ it must be said.) If mama-san wants her cash back to rebuilt the house then money is going to get tight round these parts. The yen carry trade pushed cheap money into the West and suppressed the value of the yen. The reverse then will drain money from the West and raise the (relative) value of yen. The USA will presumably deal with the problem with more QE. Tight money is deflationary so Benanke has sea room to do this. MK on the other hand probably can't. CPI at 4% says no QE for you. Edited March 15, 2011 by Nationalist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicestersq Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 FTSE down 2.5%. Lots of time to go today too, and with the US wading in, this could be a Terrible Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fallingbuzzard Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Whilst wage growth, CPIY and employment figures say there would be room if growth slows - which it will If the Japs want their yen back this could be dramatic. There must be at least half a trillion USDs worth of yen in the West at the moment. (A lot of them in OZ and NZ it must be said.) If mama-san wants her cash back to rebuilt the house then money is going to get tight round these parts. The yen carry trade pushed cheap money into the West and suppressed the value of the yen. The reverse then will drain money from the West and raise the (relative) value of yen. The USA will presumably deal with the problem with more QE. Tight money is deflationary so Benanke has sea room to do this. MK on the other hand probably can't. CPI at 4% says no QE for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 (edited) If the Japs want their yen back this could be dramatic. There must be at least half a trillion USDs worth of yen in the West at the moment. (A lot of them in OZ and NZ it must be said.) If mama-san wants her cash back to rebuilt the house then money is going to get tight round these parts. The yen carry trade pushed cheap money into the West and suppressed the value of the yen. The reverse then will drain money from the West and raise the (relative) value of yen. The USA will presumably deal with the problem with more QE. Tight money is deflationary so Benanke has sea room to do this. MK on the other hand probably can't. CPI at 4% says no QE for you. Good heavens, I think you have something there... This is going to get messy. It's not a black swan, it's a rainy day. Edited March 15, 2011 by Timm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Over 3% down now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 (edited) Watching and waiting but where is the bottom? 5000 5300 Perhaps by Friday? 5500 is a reasonable resistance level, after that 5000 and then after that we are looking at last year's lows at around 4700. IMHO it should hit 5500 - it will be interesting to see what happens then. Edit: I should add, not necessarily today! No idea how far the sell off will go, but there appears to be some resistance at 5600 and it massively oversold on standard indicators. It was already looking oversold coming into today. Edited March 15, 2011 by FaFa! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reck B Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Burberry taking a battering - big in Japan apparently. So they do have chavs over there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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