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#1 on West side

Why Is No One Calling It?

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FTSE dropping 130 points in the last 4 hours, but that's nothing compared to the NIkkei: dropped 1400 points (over 15%)

... and the FTSE hasn't opened yet!! :o:o:o

I love the smell of market panic selling in the morning...

Edited by #1 on West side

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Nikkei.jpg

Talk about pressing the reset button... Back to March 2009 index.

Jesus H Christ.

A guy was on TV yesterday saying the markets would bounce back quickly. Glad I didn't follow his advice yesterday.

Currently 9% down.

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The following words (from another forum) sum up the ripple effects of the Japanese situation

American homeowners--this is your last chance to refi. The near term low in UST yields will be the final bottom in yields.

With the Japanese now effectively out of the world bond markets as buyers, who will buy the $1.5-$1.6 trillion of new government paper we will need to sell in the next year (let alone make up for the Japanese UST holdings which won't be rolled over since they will need to repatriate their money).

With one of the world's largest net savers now out of the market who is going to pick up this slack?

QE3 and QE4 are now certainties.

But given the market's poor reaction to QE2 and the realization by most investors you can't print money forever, the two minute warning for the US Treasury market just rang and we are still down by multiple touchdowns.

Game over shortly.

:ph34r:

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Had to laugh at Pesto on last nights 10 pm news. Claim that Japanese had a self contained economy and it being in recession had little impact on us. He seemed to ignore the long standing carry trade of course, which had a fairly massive impact on asset prices I guess, and will probably have to go into reverse (if it already hasn't?).

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Jesus H Christ.

A guy was on TV yesterday saying the markets would bounce back quickly. Glad I didn't follow his advice yesterday.

Currently 9% down.

It certainly did bounce towards the end of the session (ending 6:30 UK time): From 7900 to 8700.

Yeah... this is a reflection of the actual value of the stocks... NOT. Some people made/lost a lot of money in the last few hours... :ph34r:

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Wow... the Nikkei. That's some move. I guess you have to remember the Nikkei has been going down for 20 years. These investors know how to crash a party. Meanwhile the Japanese Yen is stronger which in turn means Japan can buy more US bonds for their money. It's the circle of life.

Or is A Bug's Life? If you replace the grasshoppers with the Americans, and the bugs with the Japanese. Puts another angle on it...

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I sold my shares in the Lloyds insurance group Catlin as soon as the markets opened Monday.

I probably made a mistake.

They only fell just over 3%, so when I buy back in (and I will) it'll barely cover dealing costs let alone the CGT exposure.

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The intervention squads will be on Red alert today with freshly printed Dollars Pounds etc make no mistake about it , I will go for a close of down 125 on the FTSE

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After years of seeing folk on here call the 'black swan' event. I'm calling it now. This is it. The unforeseen game changer.

Are you technically allowed to call it, given that you didnt initiate this thread? I think we need an HPC ruling on that.

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The intervention squads will be on Red alert today with freshly printed Dollars Pounds etc make no mistake about it , I will go for a close of down 125 on the FTSE

Yep, I really admire how the Japanese have largely left their stock markets alone during the turbulent last 4 years. I always looked to the Nikkei during the financial crisis to see what a natural market was doing when reacting to the dire news of the time. Yes it always got a lift from the manipulated US markets the following day but the night time sessions were very revealing.

Gut feeling is they will use this as an opportunity to drop the Western markets and try and get commodities down along with inflation expectation.

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Yep, I really admire how the Japanese have largely left their stock markets alone during the turbulent last 4 years. I always looked to the Nikkei during the financial crisis to see what a natural market was doing when reacting to the dire news of the time. Yes it always got a lift from the manipulated US markets the following day but the night time sessions were very revealing.

Gut feeling is they will use this as an opportunity to drop the Western markets and try and get commodities down along with inflation expectation.

They might struggle with food, if the reactors create a large fallout cloud like Chernobyl then it's possible the food production areas of China could be impacted.

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Had to laugh at Pesto on last nights 10 pm news. Claim that Japanese had a self contained economy and it being in recession had little impact on us. He seemed to ignore the long standing carry trade of course, which had a fairly massive impact on asset prices I guess, and will probably have to go into reverse (if it already hasn't?).

I saw that too - and shouted at the TV calling him a lying twit - woke up the missus! :lol:

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If the Japs want their yen back this could be dramatic. There must be at least half a trillion USDs worth of yen in the West at the moment. (A lot of them in OZ and NZ it must be said.) If mama-san wants her cash back to rebuilt the house then money is going to get tight round these parts.

The yen carry trade pushed cheap money into the West and suppressed the value of the yen. The reverse then will drain money from the West and raise the (relative) value of yen.

The USA will presumably deal with the problem with more QE. Tight money is deflationary so Benanke has sea room to do this. MK on the other hand probably can't. CPI at 4% says no QE for you.

Edited by Nationalist

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Whilst wage growth, CPIY and employment figures say there would be room if growth slows - which it will

If the Japs want their yen back this could be dramatic. There must be at least half a trillion USDs worth of yen in the West at the moment. (A lot of them in OZ and NZ it must be said.) If mama-san wants her cash back to rebuilt the house then money is going to get tight round these parts.

The yen carry trade pushed cheap money into the West and suppressed the value of the yen. The reverse then will drain money from the West and raise the (relative) value of yen.

The USA will presumably deal with the problem with more QE. Tight money is deflationary so Benanke has sea room to do this. MK on the other hand probably can't. CPI at 4% says no QE for you.

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If the Japs want their yen back this could be dramatic. There must be at least half a trillion USDs worth of yen in the West at the moment. (A lot of them in OZ and NZ it must be said.) If mama-san wants her cash back to rebuilt the house then money is going to get tight round these parts.

The yen carry trade pushed cheap money into the West and suppressed the value of the yen. The reverse then will drain money from the West and raise the (relative) value of yen.

The USA will presumably deal with the problem with more QE. Tight money is deflationary so Benanke has sea room to do this. MK on the other hand probably can't. CPI at 4% says no QE for you.

Good heavens, I think you have something there...

This is going to get messy.

It's not a black swan, it's a rainy day.

Edited by Timm

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Watching and waiting but where is the bottom?

5000 5300 Perhaps by Friday?

5500 is a reasonable resistance level, after that 5000 and then after that we are looking at last year's lows at around 4700. IMHO it should hit 5500 - it will be interesting to see what happens then.

Edit: I should add, not necessarily today! No idea how far the sell off will go, but there appears to be some resistance at 5600 and it massively oversold on standard indicators. It was already looking oversold coming into today.

Edited by FaFa!

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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