GordonBrownSpentMyFuture Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I'm beginning to wonder if we will ever see 2000 prices again. At one point I thought it was a dead cert, but I'm not so sure now. It was a dead cert in 2004-5 but a few interest rate cuts saw to that. Several places in my region (West Midlands) are largely back to 2004 prices, and I see no reason why we won't be back to 2003 by the end of this year / beginning of next, but the jump in prices between 2001 and 2003 was so great (doubling in price in many places) that I do not believe we will ever recover beyond that. At least not nominally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I'm beginning to wonder if we will ever see 2000 prices again. At one point I thought it was a dead cert, but I'm not so sure now. Mortgage lending is already back to 2000/2001 levels in nominal terms, so presumably we will. Taking their sweet time though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfie Moon Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 (edited) I haven't read through the thread so may be repeating something said already. Isn't the RPI related real term house price pattern somewhat complex in that in previous HPC's RPI/CPI inflation has been associated with wage inflation whereas in the current set up, we have RPI/CPI rising rapidly combined with wage deflation. Doesn't this muddy the 'real term' measure of house price movements, and in terms of identifying where we might be in terms of the house price crash process? Edited March 25, 2011 by Alfie Moon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishbone Glover Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Mortgage lending is already back to 2000/2001 levels in nominal terms, so presumably we will. Taking their sweet time though. Yes, I think that the time it's all taking is what's getting to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonBrownSpentMyFuture Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Yes, I think that the time it's all taking is what's getting to me. I know but could be worse. Could've bought a house in 2007. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestsmith2 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 (edited) House prices have hit the massive boom period and it'll take a lot to break through that. Quarterly Annual % Change Std Price Halifax November 2001 £96,132 +9.9% ( £125,591 December 2010 inflation adjusted ) November 2002 £123,916 +28.0% ( £157,711) 28% return in a year, no wonder housing was popular Edited March 25, 2011 by northwestsmith2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 House prices have hit the massive boom period and it'll take a lot to break through that. Quarterly Annual % Change Std Price Halifax November 2001 £96,132 +9.9% ( £125,591 December 2010 inflation adjusted ) November 2002 £123,916 +28.0% ( £157,711) 28% return in a year, no wonder housing was popular So if all bubbles return to trend in real terms (and sometimes overshoot to the downside as in the US) it's important to understand where/when this one started and thus where that real terms end point will be. Would you suggest end 2001 or end 2002 or somewhere else? (I'll save the Prechterite's and hard money proponents the bother - Yes, I know it was 1971 ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestsmith2 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 So if all bubbles return to trend in real terms (and sometimes overshoot to the downside as in the US) it's important to understand where/when this one started and thus where that real terms end point will be. Would you suggest end 2001 or end 2002 or somewhere else? (I'll save the Prechterite's and hard money proponents the bother - Yes, I know it was 1971 ) I think it will end between 100 and 140K in todays money, that would cover in real terms the overshoot in the previous crash. By 2012 that could be 110K as the lowest average mix adjusted price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Hardly any change to the P/E chart this month: ----- Adjusted for RPI inflation, the average price as measured by Halifax dropped 0.4% in March vs February despite the headline 0.1% nominal rise. The inflation-adjusted year-on-year fall is 8.2%. Prices are now down 27.2% from peak in real terms, a new low. This is almost exactly the same fall as we saw in the last crash over the same time period (43 months). ----- Prices are now back to Feb 2003 levels in real terms: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikthe20 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Prices are now back to Feb 2003 levels in real terms: Top work fella! Any chance of a chart showing it against real wages? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pezo Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 (edited) Hardly any change to the P/E chart this month: ----- Adjusted for RPI inflation, the average price as measured by Halifax dropped 0.4% in March vs February despite the headline 0.1% nominal rise. The inflation-adjusted year-on-year fall is 8.2%. Prices are now down 27.2% from peak in real terms, a new low. This is almost exactly the same fall as we saw in the last crash over the same time period (43 months). ----- Prices are now back to Feb 2003 levels in real terms: Very interesting, basically everyone on here was right and the crash is happening, only difference is that it is mainly happening in inflation rather than nominal terms so everyone should have bought a house knowing what we know now. Does anyone believe that the BOE will reverse QE any point? would they do this instead of a base rate rise? Edited April 12, 2011 by pezo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuffy Chuffnell Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 So 2 more years to go until the bottom... Spring 2013. I'll note that in my diary... could make a long-term killing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Top work fella! Any chance of a chart showing it against real wages? Cheers. I showed the fall-from-peak adjusted for earnings for this crash and the last one in post #104. I intend to update the earnings-adjusted chart every three months or so, so the next one will probably be in June. Here’s a chart I didn’t post – the earnings-adjusted fall-from-peak comparing the two crashes. As we are all well aware, prices aren’t falling as fast in this crash when adjusted for earnings as opposed to retail price inflation. (Note: the above chart only goes up to Feb 2011.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Very interesting, basically everyone on here was right and the crash is happening, only difference is that it is mainly happening in inflation rather than nominal terms so everyone should have bought a house knowing what we know now. Does anyone believe that the BOE will reverse QE any point? would they do this instead of a base rate rise? No, the BOE have previously made it quite clear that they would start to increase interest rates before withdrawing QE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Cheers. I showed the fall-from-peak adjusted for earnings for this crash and the last one in post #104. I intend to update the earnings-adjusted chart every three months or so, so the next one will probably be in June. Here’s a chart I didn’t post – the earnings-adjusted fall-from-peak comparing the two crashes. As we are all well aware, prices aren’t falling as fast in this crash when adjusted for earnings as opposed to retail price inflation. (Note: the above chart only goes up to Feb 2011.) The chart they don't want people to see. Thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pezo Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 No, the BOE have previously made it quite clear that they would start to increase interest rates before withdrawing QE. Do you know if there a trigger for QE to be withdrawn? IR at 8% let’s start withdrawing some of the money sort of thing? I just can’t see it in the next 10 years and one thing they are not going to do is allow any kind of deflation, they seem too much prefer inflation over deflation which makes a lot of sense with how much debt there is in the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 Halifax has updated its regional house price indices for Q1 2011: (Halifax data available from this page.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Halifax has updated its regional house price indices for Q1 2011: (Halifax data available from this page.) Those NI figures are staggering! Is that -17.4% in the first three months of 2011?? And London -5.7% YoY, I thought London was booming! Am I reading this right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 Those NI figures are staggering! Is that -17.4% in the first three months of 2011?? And London -5.7% YoY, I thought London was booming! Am I reading this right? That’s what the numbers say. Greater London in Q1 2010 was high though and London prices at that time had bounced back from the lows stronger than most other regions. As for Northern Ireland, prices had risen to such extremes it’s not surprising to see such sharp volatility on the way down. Then again a 17% drop in a single quarter is pretty dramatic and it’s the largest quarter-on-quarter fall ever in the Halifax regional series (the previous record was -13%, again in NI, Q2 2008). The record quarterly rise is 18.7% in the West Midlands (Q3 1988). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Don't tell the Scottish section of the forum.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Halifax has updated its regional house price indices for Q1 2011: (Halifax data available from this page.) That is a bit of an eye opener. Not because of the Northern Ireland figures - we all know they are seriously in the poop - but for the fact that everyone on here bangs on about London being immune and yet it is showing large falls from peak compared to the South East. Looks to me that the South East has some serious catching up to do doesn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 That is a bit of an eye opener. Not because of the Northern Ireland figures - we all know they are seriously in the poop - but for the fact that everyone on here bangs on about London being immune and yet it is showing large falls from peak compared to the South East. Looks to me that the South East has some serious catching up to do doesn't it? I seriously hope so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
getknk Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 when can South East reach NI status !! great work guys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 That is a bit of an eye opener. Not because of the Northern Ireland figures - we all know they are seriously in the poop - but for the fact that everyone on here bangs on about London being immune and yet it is showing large falls from peak compared to the South East. Looks to me that the South East has some serious catching up to do doesn't it? London? Immune? . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giordano Bruno Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 That is a bit of an eye opener. Not because of the Northern Ireland figures - we all know they are seriously in the poop - but for the fact that everyone on here bangs on about London being immune and yet it is showing large falls from peak compared to the South East. Looks to me that the South East has some serious catching up to do doesn't it?What surprises me about the NI figures is that over 2010 the prices were rising! Also the figures are all about 5 times 1983 prices. Five times in 28 years! We need to get back to 1983 figures asap, at least in real terms! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.