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Alfie Moon

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  1. And yet there were very high numbers of double income households in the 1990s and yet house prices still crashed. Then also in the US, Ireland, Spain, etc. there have been similar demographic changes that you allude to for the UK and yet house prices have still crashed in these countries, and are still crashing. Oh, heavy sigh, I guess house prices will still crash here in the UK, sigh.
  2. You can look out for the release of the figures here: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
  3. And just to add to the above in light of this mornings reports about Bankers bonuses being paid out this year - yep, £14 Billion. They wreck the ec onomy and get paid £14 Billion in bonuses. The new PM in Portugal is reported as saying that his Cabinet have found a colossal hole in the national budget of ..... 2 Billion Euros. As Mervyn King said a while ago - it is amazing how the UK public is showing so little anger towards the Bankers considering what they have done to the economy, national debt and deficit. The Private And Public sectors are both being made to pay for their mess and should be united in their anger against the Bankers rather than taking part in a Media/Government stimulated Private Vs Public Sector War that just deflects anger from the truely deserving target.
  4. Alternatively, tax Bankers, Estate Agents, BTL'ers and TV Property Programme Presenters and Producers so that they are left with the minimum wage as post-tax income until they have paid off the national deficit.
  5. Is there anyone who knows what this 'Big Society' is, or what it means? Haven't senior Whitehall Civil Servants complained to No.10 that there is little, if any clarity as to what the 'Big Society' is which doesn't really help them when they receive loads of Government documents that use the phrase but no explanation as to what it actually is.
  6. Yes, there is the choice for waiting for it to happen - but there isn't a 'natural' timescale on this, it isn't all down to economic fundamentals. For the last 25 years or so Economists have recognised more and more the importance that the discourse environment plays in financial/commercial markets and how there is a dynamic relationship involved in the way that the (traditional) economic fundamentals and the discourse environment interact with each other and help shape the overall way in which markets operate. It is very hard for small groups & the public to directly challenge and have significant impact on economic fundamentals. However, small groups, and the public can target and have a significant impact on the discourse environment much, much more easily. At a very basic level think about the impact of rumours on stocks and shares trading - amazing what one well put together rumour can do, and how it can interact and change the direction of economic fundamentals. The same can occur in the property market via its discourse environment. There are very good reasons to believe that we could, if we made the effort (and it doesn't require huge amounts of effort individually, and certainly very few resources - we already have our computers and access to the web) have a (very) significant impact on the property market discourse environment which will lead to significant impact on the markets participants behaviour which then leads to ..... impact on the market and prices. It happens naturally but it is possible for small action groups to significantly push the process along, and even create changes of direction and so on. Yes there are groups of people who would be very resistant to changing their attitudes, beliefs and behaviour - but so what? There are many millions who are primed and ready to hear the HPCF'esque perspective and to participate in the change of the discourse environment - which as you correctly point out will happen one way or another (even with those resistant groups you identify present). We should, and could do this. At worst it is better to have tried than to have not tried at all - why let the VI's dominate and shape the discourse environment when we don't have to?
  7. Its great that you are writing the letters,etc. -well worth doing. However, in regards to the Readers Comments - as NEO72 says, you won't get public support unless you work at getting it. As I keep saying, there is plenty of theoretical and empirical support for what I am saying. The Indignados movement didn't know if it would get any significanty support from the public or not until they tried. Many would have said the public won't support such a Movement because the public just accept the status quo, even when the status quo is bad. I have listed many reasons why there are many millions in the UK public who would be supportive of lower house prices, and this includes many on the property ladder already. Take a look at the support HPC'esque Readers Comments already obtain on The Independent, The Guardian, Daily Mail ..... the support is there ready to be tapped ..... and Readers Comments provides us with a free national platform for communicating out the HPC perspective.
  8. And yet nothing you have said provides a rationale for not taking action through a Readers Comment avenue - indeed quite the opposite. Your comment seems to suggest that such action would only be worth taking if everyone already agreed with the HPC'esque type perspective (in which case there would be no need for it, of course). Like I say there are very good theoretical and empirical grounds for saying what I say - its not just opinion pulled out of the ether. Why do you think the pro-boom house price VI's invest so much in shaping the discourse environment about the property market and house prices? From the theoretical perspective I am coming from I would say that your comment simply reflects the 'power' of the current dominant discourse - and it acts to disempower you, makes it seem pointless to take action, impossible to tackle, etc. But that is not true - the current dominant discourse is not set in stone, is not an objective truth that can't be challenged and replaced. It can be effectively resisted, challenged, weakened, and ultimately replaced with a different set of discourses that become the accepted 'truth' about house prices/property market and treated as if common sensical. Your comment just flags up more reason for taking action - and there are very good reason for taking the Readers Comments avenue to doing this as it costs nothing, is something that requires no more time & effort than posting a comment on HPC, and best of all - reaches very big numbers of people right ac ross the UK. By the way - public opinion research shows that people take more notice of Readers Letters and Readers Comments in shaping and informing their opinions than they do of Editiors Comments or indeed Newspaper Articles. We should and could be doing this.
  9. And there is close to a whole generation of young adults priced out of buying a starter home (ie millions of people) + millions more mortgage holders who are priced out of moving up the property ladder and need (and can afford to lose the notional equity) prices to fall 20%-40% for the move to become affordable. Then there are the millions (indeed the majority of the population are affected by this) whose lives have been badly effected by the credit boom/house price boom created debt levels that have led to the financial crisis leading to unemployment, wage deflation, cuts to health, social care, pensions, education, etc. and job insecurity, etc. There are millions of parents that need house prices to fall so that they don't have to decimate their savings and pensioons funds to provide a deposit for their children to get a mnortgage on a badly built studio flat or similar. Then there are millions of property owners or with small mortgages who have no plans to move and ultimately won't care if house prices fall back to sebnsible levels but will benefit from the role it will play in unltimately allowing economic recovery to occur, and will have family and friends who were previously priced out of the property market who will then be able to move on with life plans. Like I say - HPC'esque Readers Comments gain a great deal of support - we just need to up the quantity of them significantly to reach a wider audience to help change the discourse environment - it can be done - there are very good theoretical and empirical grounds for saying so. Much better than a 'can't do'/'defeatist' approach to the situation.
  10. Venger I couldn't disagree with you more. All you are reflecting is the power of the dominant discourse - but it isn't a permanent or inevitable discourse and it won't last forever. Dominant discourses are always open to be resisted, challenged and ultimately defeated and replaced - try reading some Foucault and also some up to date economic theory about how markets work and the highly significant role that the discourse environment plays. Economic theorists gave up the notion that market movements and they way they operate is down to 'economic fundamentals' 20-25 years ago. Take a look at the (very) old thread I started in the Market Psychology section of HPC: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=30244 Also, if you were right then we wouldn't have (to provide extreme examples) collective action sparked off by Twitter, or Facebook, etc. such as the Arab Spring Rising, or the Indignados Movement in Spain. Why do you think Governments are so concerned and monitor Twitter and Facebook. Also, Political Parties in the UK monitor Letters to the Editor and Readers Comments - I take this from Colleagues in the Politics Dept at the Uni where I am an academic. Through Readers Comments we have access to facilities that enable us to reach very large numbers of people right across the UK. Also, from my own personal experience I have seen a sea change in the reaction and response to HPC'esque Readers Comments on National Newspaper Websites - the dominant response used to be ridicule and jibes. Now it is agreement and support that is dominant with a sense of brewing anger about the way house prices were used to make Bankers incredibly rich, to wreck the economy, and the way in which the Government/Politicians ignored what was going on as the 'feel good factor' was winning them votes. My sense is that the public are ripe and very receptive to hearing the HPC perspective - they just need people willing to make a bit of effort to tell them. I believe with a relatively small number say 30 - 50 we could have a significant and real impact. And as I say above, I don't just say this as a matter of personal opinion - there are good theoretical and empirical grounds for saying what I say.
  11. Ok I will add my usual suggestion when these types of threads pop up - I welcome such threads/suggestions - we should and could be doing far more and having a real impact (see my very old thread about Discourse and Action in the Psychology section of HPC. My suggestion is that we should be targeting all of the National Newspaper websites on a daily basis via their Readers Comments facilities. Adding a readers comment takes up no more time, effort and resources than it does to add a comment here on HPC (or any other forums people visit for that matter). We can use these Readers Comments to help Joe/Jane public become aware of an HPC'esque perspective on the property market/house prices. All the myths, spin and lies used by the pro-boom & rising house prices brigade can be openly and directly challenged. Using Readers Comments on these national Newspaper websites allows us to reach a very large number of people right across the UK & provide food for thought for the individual readers and hopefully stimulate some conversation and discussion at work, home, in the pub, etc., etc. Just think how many leaflets we would have to write, print and deliver/distribute to reach anywhere near as many people that we can reach via Readers Comments - and adding Readers Comments is something that many of us can do as we work in the same way we do for adding comments on HPC. Targeting the Daily Mail for example it was interesting to read this in a The Guardian article recently: "There are two things to say about the extraordinary rise and rise of the Daily Mail's online operation. One is that with unique browsers up 82.6% in a year (to 77.2 million a month and 4.36 million a day on the ABCe figures for May) it's a phenomenon, making huge strides in the US, on apps and in every direction." In terms of organisation it wd be useful if we had a Sticky Thread on here so that we could get a sense of which papers people were targetting so that we could ensure that every single National Newspaper was covered by our Readers Comments Action. Such a thread wd also be a place where we could report back, ask for suggestions about tackling Estate Agents, BTL'ers responses, etc. We could do a huge amount with just 10-20 of us. If we had 50-100 doing this the possibilities are really quite big. Individuals could also target their Local Newspaper websites and use the Sticky Thread on here to ask for help and support when required. If the above went ahead I don't think we should get bogged down in terms of inconsistencies. It is only natural that our individual Readers Comments would have different styles, reflect some degree of differences of opinion between us, etc. I really don't think that would matter much - there would still be a huge amount of overlap and certainly at a general level our 'message' would come across loud and clear to a large audience. What do you think?
  12. The Estate Agent is definately trying it on and in clear breach of the Code of Practice for Sales - see the Property Ombudsmans website: http://www.tpos.co.uk/ For the Code of Practice for Sales - see Section 6: http://www.tpos.co.uk/downloads/IES02_code%20of%20practice_sales_FINAL.pdf Submission of Offers 6a By law, you must tell sellers as soon as is reasonably possible about all offers that you receive at any time until contracts have been exchanged (in Scotland, missives have been concluded) unless the offer is an amount or type which the seller has specifically instructed you, in writing, not to pass on. You must confirm each offer in writing to the seller, and to the buyer who made it, within two working days.6b You must keep a written or computerised record of all offers you receive – including the date and time of such offers – and the seller’s response. Such records should be made promptly. Discrimination 6c By law you must not discriminate, or threaten to discriminate, against a prospective buyer of the seller’s property because that person declines to accept that you will (directly or indirectly) provide services to them. Discrimination includes – but is not limited to – the following: • Failing to tell the seller of an offer to buy the property. • Telling the seller of an offer less quickly than other offers you have received. • Misrepresenting the nature of the offer or that of rival offers. • Giving details of properties for sale first to those who have indicated they are prepared to let you provide services to them. • Making it a condition that the person wanting to buy the property must use any other service provided by you or anyone else. Putting your offer in writing with copies to the EA and to the vendor is a good idea making sure that your offer is subject to them taking the property off the market. However, the situation plays out a formal complaint should be lodged about this EA - if complaints aren't made it just ensures that they continue with their malpractice. I would also suggest that using an EA's FA, or Mortgage Advisor should never be considered. Although it is illegal they frequently pass on financial information to the EA who then uises that info to pressurise the potential buyer to push up their offer to their maximum stretch (and beyond!).
  13. Well done Realistbear. Enjoy your new home!
  14. Again, I disagree. I think you are underestimating just how many are priced out of the property market as buyers, whether they are on the the property ladder or not. So many are currently priced out that Estate Agents are only selling one property per week on average.Look at readers comments on the Daily Mail and other national newspaper websites - the pro-house prices remaining at boom time levels where most people are priced out of the market are the small minority. And people are increasingly making the link between the financial crisis inducing levels of credit/debt that was necessary for house prices to inflate to such levels and the costs of this being the age of austerity whereby 100s of thousands have lost jobs, seen their incomes fall, are seeing very big cuts and changes to the services that we all rely upon such as Health, Education, Social Care, and so on. It is also a fact that the majority of current mortgage hol;ders, and certainly house owners can afford to see house prices fall by 30% or even more without any direct ill-effect on them (they will still have their house that they live in, just less notional equity). ....... and for many others they want to see their children have a chance of getting on the property ladder (without themselves as parents having to decimate their pension & savings funds to help provide a deposit for their children). I would agree that there are those that need help in joining up the dots between house prices and the financial crisis - but more and more are seeing the connections. There are plenty of handles for Direct Action to take a hold of and use to very good effect to generate increasing support for lower house prices.
  15. I disagree - currently close to a whole generation of young adults are priced out of buying a starter home no matter how hard they work and save. It may be a case that they need their attention drawn to the links between the Credit boom fuelled house price boom and the impact this has - not just on their ability to buy a home - but also job prospects, University fees, moves to increase privitisation in the NHS and so on, and so on. Also, for this generation of young adults there is a significant impact on their parents - having to house and financially support their adult children for many more years than would be the case if the house price boom had not occured. Also, (and I think HPC tends to forget about this very large group) a very large proportion of people already on the property market are priced out of moving up the property ladder & need to see house prices fall to enable them to make the move - it is because this group are also so largely affected by the house price boom that property sales have collapsed so much. I think the numbers that are adversley affected by boom time house prices and would like to see house prices fall is underestimated by a very large margin. Ultimately though - support will only be gained if action is taken rather than doing nothing.
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