5lab Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 just watching beeb breakfast, they were introducing the segments 'later' and had the guy from business on to say 'according to nationwide, house prices have risen by more than a percent, the third rise in a row' oops! cat out of the bag (queue conspiracy theories) edit : up 1.3%, down 6.3% yoy - up 7.5% trough-to-peak http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8175479.stm http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jul_2009.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jac Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 up 1.3% mom after 1.0% gain last month i can believe it based on experience in london. cheeky bids that were considered in march rejected out of hands now. estate agents surprised at reasonable offers being rejected. friends selling property 10% off peak in days a few months ago. now someone i know sold at 2007 peak in one weekend it has gone frenzy crazy i'm afraid given the slashing of base rates to 0.5% nobody is forced to sell. repos do go for good prices and sell in one day but not many around Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5lab Posted July 30, 2009 Author Share Posted July 30, 2009 http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jul_2009.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jac Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 The last gasp of the Dead Cat ? could well be. when rates rise again we'll prob have another crash... but from what i read of the boe minutes they're not doing that anytime over the next year 2013 will be an almighty recession in my view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jac Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 The last gasp of the Dead Cat ?This should bring a FULL FLOOD of properties for sale true.. it's really weird. an increase in confidence should mean all those 'developers' who didn't sell should sell now... hope so! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potwalloper Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 could well be. when rates rise again we'll prob have another crash... but from what i read of the boe minutes they're not doing that anytime over the next year2013 will be an almighty recession in my view Mortgage rates and BOE rates will decouple sooner than that in my view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jac Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Mortgage rates and BOE rates will decouple sooner than that in my view. true we should be seeing a slowdown in sales as fixed rate mortgages have already risen as 'green shoots' in manufacturing i.e a they reopen a factory they closed down in february means people think we have a full on recovery. in early 2010 i think fixed rate mortgages will come back down as people will realise the boe is not going to raise rates for a long time. they didnt in the early 1990s so why would they this time? unless the housing market continues to go mental! but for existing customers forced onto svr because they cant refinance i dont see rates going up, though someone told me an irish bank recently raised its svr? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest absolutezero Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Mortgage rates and BOE rates will decouple sooner than that in my view. Thought they already had.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Sig updated. -14.61 % fall from peak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potwalloper Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 in early 2010 i think fixed rate mortgages will come back down as people will realise the boe is not going to raise rates for a long time. they didnt in the early 1990s so why would they this time? unless the housing market continues to go mental!but for existing customers forced onto svr because they cant refinance i dont see rates going up, though someone told me an irish bank recently raised its svr? Real interest rates are set by the markets. The amount owed by developed countries to developing countries has breached credibility. We are an increasingly bad risk as borrowers in Europe, US. Threfore rates will increase. There is nothing the BoE or the government can do about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potwalloper Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Thought they already had.... Not quite, but a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jac Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Real interest rates are set by the markets. The amount owed by developed countries to developing countries has breached credibility. We are an increasingly bad risk as borrowers in Europe, US. Threfore rates will increase. There is nothing the BoE or the government can do about it. they could create hyperinflation. prices would fall in euro/remnimbi terms. but i bet zimbabwean house prices have gone up in zimbabwean dollars over the last 5 years ! (i have a 50 trillion note in my pocket to remind me of what will happen here soon!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TylerDurden Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Sod this, just what I didn't want to hear, Ive got a large deposit in the bank getting no interest and I'm 30 in feb, i allways said if i hadn't bought a house by the time i was 30 I wouldn't bother. as a tradesman I dont want to be working past 50 trashing my body to an early grave just to pay a huge mortgage off. This watching of the monthly figures is mind numbing for me. i should have bought years ago and am a fool for not doing so. Oh well, onwards and upwards. think i'll start looking at a bigger house to rent as this shitty shoe box is draining my energies. lol. I'm out of HPC! even though i know they will have to fall sooner or later, i just havnt got the years in me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 (edited) Nationwide House Prices, July/09: +1.3% MoM £158,871 NSA , £156,578 SA and -6.2% YoY More detailed graphs plus other market indicators here http://www.houseprices.uk.net/graphs Edited July 30, 2009 by spline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the flying pig Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 dammit. this can't be described as a blip now, it's a proper mini-recovereh in house prices. how long will it last? who knows. what is causing it? i can't imagine... like slaughterhouse cattle rutting, the british populace seems determined that, if it's going down, it's taking some overpriced pwoperdee with it. pathetic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
righttoleech Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 BBC breakfast, 'it's good news but don't get too excited' that quote from a mortgage broker. Meanwhile the interviewer taps his pen in frustration, says 'you people never stick your necks out' Clearly wants more. Greed incarnate on the BBC. I smell a BTL leech, pass the salt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_James Toney_* Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 my opinion, and most of them on here are that houses have to fall another 40% with all this crap, it gives the sellers more to say no about taking too low offers. and boe rates not to rise for at least a year. no wonder some people have had enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valerius Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 A serious blow to all doom-mongers HPC fashonistas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronpember Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Sorry, but I have to ask...Is this a serious post? Or are you "describing a frustrated buyer's attitude". If the later, well done. You hit it better than I could have. I'd say it was a serious post, and I can see that he only joined in 08, but he is really summing up well the feelings of people who have stood on the sidelines expecting a crash for the whole of the decade, been gee'ed on by the know it alls on this site who actually knew fukk all and when, like the broken clock that tells the time right every so often, the crash finally came they smugly patted each other on the back and said they were right all along. Well played to the poster and good luck. DYOR must always be the maxim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricor mortis Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Maybe this will tempt the banks to start the repo's in earnest. I know property is massively overpriced and I know it will drop big time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markinspain Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 If they're still going up in Oct, Nov and Dec, I may be convinced we're past the bottom. I doubt this will be the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 We need to see on what volumes these figures are based. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munimula Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 If they're still going up in Oct, Nov and Dec, I may be convinced we're past the bottom. I doubt this will be the case. House prices are still massively overvalued for new entrants to the market, that includes FTBs and BTL now with tighter requirements for mortgages. And in a near-deflationary environment where wages are on hold or falling we can't expect salaries to catch up with house prices. The current housing market is still completely moribund with levels of sales less than half the number normally required to stabilise house prices, let alone see rising prices. This is not a normal housing market, a unique set of factors - low supply and low interest rates is allowing a minority to buy and drive the current market. It is not going to produce a sustainable recovery in house prices. When these buyers have been flushed out (this autumn/winter?), when the government starts cutting public spending dramatically (next July onwards?) or when interest rates rise (2yrs onwards?) the support for the market will evaporate, all hope will be lost and prices will dive with no further recovery until the bottom. Patience is required, my estimate was always for the bottom of the housing market to be around 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellerkat Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 The divergence with the Halifax is getting ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bear_or_bull Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 "Sod this, just what I didn't want to hear, Ive got a large deposit in the bank getting no interest and I'm 30 in feb, i allways said if i hadn't bought a house by the time i was 30 I wouldn't bother. as a tradesman I dont want to be working past 50 trashing my body to an early grave just to pay a huge mortgage off. This watching of the monthly figures is mind numbing for me. i should have bought years ago and am a fool for not doing so.Oh well, onwards and upwards. think i'll start looking at a bigger house to rent as this shitty shoe box is draining my energies. lol. I'm out of HPC! even though i know they will have to fall sooner or later, i just havnt got the years in me." Sorry, but I have to ask... Is this a serious post? Or are you "describing a frustrated buyer's attitude". If the later, well done. You hit it better than I could have. This is how most people feel. That's why panic can drive this market much farther than you'd expect. That's why, when it comes down to it, the economy may adjust by social change (to a victorian system) rather than by the numbers. I know quite a few people in their mid 30 s who feel like it's now or never. They are buying. They just feel they can't wait. You need to be in your FINAL house by the time your 40. It will all end in tears, but in the end your dead anyway. People should be on the streets, but they're too stupid to realise they're being done. It's a genius of a plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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