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House Price Crash Forum


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About 5lab

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  1. 5lab

    Halifax House Price Charts

    cells - this book http://www.amazon.co.uk/Houses-Historical-Analysis-Property-Prices/dp/1907994017/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1327231372&sr=8-1 has historical data for around 10 countries, going back as far as 400 years in one case (from memory). Its a great read and I encourage anyone on this forum to get it.
  2. apologies if this has already been covered - did a search and didn't spot it.. a week ago I spotted this book on amazon http://www.amazon.co.uk/Houses-Historical-Analysis-Property-Prices/dp/1907994017/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1315747648&sr=8-1 bought a copy, and sat down for a read. Its a very good book. Essentially it looks at 100-400 years of house prices in about 8 countries (including the UK) and tries to identify what causes boom in prices, what causes crashes. Some of the stats about housing are interesting, as are some of the misconceptions about growth. There is a lot of information which could be considered bear food, as well as some examples from the other side. In essence, I'd consider it essential reading to anyone on this site who wants to educate themselves a bit more as to where house prices have been before (looking back further than the traditional 'back to 1970' graph we've got, and looking overseas as well). It'd also be good reading for anyone who was considering buying a house. At the end of the book he discusses 3 things that could happen to house prices in the uk over the next 10-15 years, with some interesting side effects pulled out from each scenario. Overall, go and buy it, and have a read. Its well researched, unbiased, and if you spend hours of your life browsing on here, it only makes sense to do some reading of properly researched material as well Hugh ps. I'm not in any way affiliated with the book - I spotted it at random, read it, and thought it was good
  3. 5lab

    Brighton Area

    yeah I brought in feb, having agreed a price in sept 2007 then re-negociated it in Jan. Its probably gone up by more than that (has new bathroom, kitchen, central heating, flooring, etc etc etc) but was just surprised that the 'drive by' still rated it up 11k - would expect it to have been flat
  4. 5lab

    Brighton Area

    heh I thought that would get some responses.. let me clarify a few things.. 'fairly central' - its about a 5 min walk from that pedestrianised bit of hove, with shops/cafes and so on. value for money - well, its not cheap. but it's not priced that unreasonably when you compare it to other things on the market (I'm not saying the market is where it should be, just saying, for where the market is..) for instance http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-34407236.html http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-29474308.html http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-35413952.html http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-35214398.html they were just a quick search for stuff worth 500-700k in the area. Some of those places are bigger than the houses in question (note, they're not flats) - some are smaller. But I'd imagine at this kinda price range, you're not after the biggest house you can get if you go for any of these? I guess its a question of taste - for £600k you can get a converted old building (remember, the argus lofts and the old college house sold out fairly quickly), a traditional semi, a sea view regency flat, what looks like a new build house, or a flat whose only selling point appears to be the fact you can change the light colour in the bathroom. 600k seems like a lot of money but its the law of diminishing returns in a city. for £150k you can get a 1 bed flat, 200k a 2 bed flat, 300k a terrace 3 bed house, but up from there its a lot more vague.. Would I buy one? no, I don't have 600k, and if I did, I'd rather somewhere with a bigger garden, but I wouldn't say that no-one will. Will they get £650k? probably not. will they get £550k? I would expect they will fairly easily.
  5. 5lab

    Brighton Area

    its a very nicely done place in a fairly central location. its price is a bit more than the old college house flats of similar size, which is the best thing I can think to compare it to, but they're in a slightly better area (the level isn't right outside) You'd not do well to BTL them - high end properties never rent for as much as the mortgauge (which would be in the region of 3-4k/month). however I suspect someone will buy them - quite a quick commute up to london (near aldrington station) so I guess the money might come down from there? in other brighton news, they're just finishing off a row of housing in bevendean road (off bear road). I think its 10-12 new houses. The last batch (of 6) that they put up there were listed at 300k each, and sold for £285k on average - very small 4 bed houses, all sold to btl'ers. I'm happy stuff is still being built, but I expect the new batch will go the same way. I just had my place valued by a rics surveyer for a remortgauge. They didn't even bother driving by (i guess they just did a quick search online). came back at 5% more than I paid in 2008. I guess if thats what people are allowed to borrow, thats what things will be worth..
  6. thats a pretty competetive rate for a 90% mortgauge, typically these are in the 4+% range
  7. there was something in the times on saturday about extra funding for BTL properties - something about 'build to let' which gave funding or something specifically for developers who are building for landlords. Guess that won't be too popular on here if it goes ahead?? There was also something about trying to crack down on 'rouge landlords' - whoever they are.
  8. 5lab

    Young Buyers Trapped In New Homes

    on a 25 year mortgauge @ 5% (probably fairly typical for a ftb) you'd pay off a smidge under 10% over the first 4 years. So if they bought with a 90% mortgauge then they can probably walk away, but if they bought with a 100% mortgauge then they're probably stuck for now.. Regarding paying it off - depends on the cirumstances. Lets say our couple got a 4x joint mortgauge of 100k. That means their individual income is just £12,500 a year, or around £900/month. Saving 10k on that kinda salery would take a *long* time, so in effect they would be trapped. I was a ftb 4 years ago, with a multiplier somewhere around 4.5x and 90% ltv, but used low interest rates, pay rises, work done to the house, and luck (Brighton is within 5% of it's peak) to mean I'm now comfortably on a 70%ltv and 2.5x multiplier, with significant equity in the house. I don't plan on selling any time soon, but its easy to see how someome could make that decision in 2008 (to buy). I came on here for a look around and everyone had been saying prices were due to crash for the previous 5 years. Granted in 2008 things did turn south, but the site sounded like a stuck record (as it does today, to some extent)..
  9. 5lab

    Brighton Area

    isn't multiple occupancy where a group of people (more than 3) share the same house? If these are bedsits I don't think it counts as multiple occupancy anyway, does anyone know what the story behind this is? http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/9289570.11_000_new_homes_for_Brighton_and_Hove/
  10. I'm in the 'don't think it'd work' camp too. If I had more money spare, (lets say houses cost 1/2 of what they do today), I'd have a house thats twice as nice. I'm comfortably a higher rate tax payer, but here (Brighton) I can only afford a terrace house out of town a bit. Twice as much spending power would get me a semi in a nicer part of town. I think, certainly down here, a lot of people would be the same. Except in very populous areas, no-one wants to live in a flat, its just all they can afford, and if all those people could suddenly buy houses, that's probably what they'd do, and then prices would rise..
  11. 5lab

    Brighton Area

    hasn't happened yet, house prices are, at the moment, pretty stagnent, while inflation is relatively high (a way of hyperinflation, yes, but higher than 'normal'). Its anyones bet as to what happens next (everyone revolts and gets pay rises? everything stays the same for 10 years (as seen in japan) - who knows?) essentially, you 'move in' with your friend (on paper). you might need to register the car there for this step (I've not done this myself, but know mates who have). then when your shiney permit arrives, you have a big falling out and move into your nice hove seafront flat, and transfer your permit accordingly.
  12. 5lab

    Remortgage Valuation

    i brought right at the peak (whoops) on a 2 year deal that ended right at the trough (oops again). I got lucky with interest rates, so had thrown enough money at the mortgauge to keep it at 90% loan to value, based on my own estimations. When the time came to do a deal (with my existing lender) - they were happy to simply accept the previous value, despite the plunge in value. I was happy with this, as it got me a 80% ltv deal instead of a 90%. That was with Natwest, dunno if all banks are the same. For me, I'd never go on a 10 year deal, as I simply don't know what I'll be doing in 10 years, and I wouldn't like the 'ball and chain' of a big payment if I wanted out. I'm currently un-married, with no depencancies, living in the UK. in 5 years I could have 3 kids and be in sydney. 10 years could be anything
  13. 5lab

    Brighton Area

    theres only a waiting list for parking permits in some areas, in others the permits have no waiting list. Also if you move from a zone with an easy permit, to one with a long list, you skip the queue. Handy if you know someone in a no-waiting-list zone
  14. 40 years doesn't give you that much more borrowing power than 25 though, which is why I think 25 has been the common length of a mortgauge for so long. at 5% interest rate, the extra 15 years (66% increase in loan term) only increases your borrowing power by 20%
  15. 5lab

    Nationwide 7Am Tomorrow

    pretty much back to peak values here (Brighton), maybe 1-2% drop now over the last 5 years. Don't seem to be going anywhere fast - maybe up 1-2% per annum. Nationwide has historically got a southern bias, whereas halifax has a northern one, I think this is why we see halifax's figures sitting slightly under those of the land reg, and nationwide's sitting higher than nationwide.

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