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spline

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  1. The Packardbell charger looks like it has a removable/rotatable plug as part of the AC Adaper – so probably difficult to swap unless you can get hold of the Packard Bell USA plug. However, a standard travel plug adapter (USA, 2 flat pins) should work fine.
  2. According to Wikipedia, the Barbados mains supply is 115V at 50Hz using USA/Canadian style 2- and 3-pin plugs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mains_power_around_the_world and as ChumpusRex says, the frequency is 50Hz, not 60Hz, so not *exactly* the same as in USA but that’s not a problem for most things, including laptops that use an AC converter (the small black thingy that goes between the mains AC plug and the low voltage DC plug into the laptop). 1) Check that the AC adapter is happy to accept 115V at 50Hz, it will say on it. 2) If so, then you just need to swap the power cord to a 2- or 3-pin USA style one. The laptop manufacturer will usually sell a travel kit with different plug options, etc. Here's the AC adapter from my laptop (look at the green label) Input 100V-240V 50/60 Hz AC, Output 16V DC.
  3. Monthly list, rigthand side near top. Nationwide and Halifax are provisional, HMRC usually 21st or 22th. http://www.houseprices.uk.net/
  4. Hi roboooc, Excellent, and thanks for offering additional data from the Property Activity Index. Given that we have a good predictive chain linking approvals/transactions to price movements, specifically current HPI and reported YoY 6-7 months later, the key value of the Activity Index would be to extend this by providing [even earlier, more timely] proxies for the approval/transaction numbers. So, ideally, that would be: 1. Number of monthly ‘for sale’ instructions 2. Number of monthly ‘sold’ instructions 3. A measure of stock, say total number of current ‘for sale’ boards, would allow us to construct RICS a type sales-to-stock ratio. 4. A market share number, say number of agents signed up, (since we don’t want changes in Property Agency market share relative to competitors showing up as changes in supply/demand for property). But, given that providing data takes time and effort, I’d say that 2 would be the minimum useful data, followed perhaps by some normalisation measure against either supply (1 or 3, sales-to-stock) and/or market share (4, sales per agent, stock per agent). Quoting a number rather than a % MoM would be better. We can also add seasonal adjustment using X12 ARIMA or similar if there is a couple of years NSA back data. Other suggestions / ideas welcome ... Another HPC thread on the Property Activity Index, March/2010 http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=137954&view=findpost&p=2410623
  5. Hi kilroy, This sold board activity index is really quite interesting - I chained the MoMs together to get the series, then because of all the usual health warnings about this sort of index I cross-checked it against the approvals, and it's remarkably good (at least so far). Slightly leads approvals on the time-lime, as you might expect.
  6. Here’s some more charts – this time comparing the BBA and official BoE number of approvals for house purchase along with some other useful/timely indicators and good for eyeballing trends. NSA – BBA (today), BoE approvals, and Property Activity Sold Board Instructions SA – BBA (today), BoE Approvals, and BoE Lending Panel (Trends in lending) BoE June/2010 is out on Thursday 29/Jun.
  7. Here’s the seasonally corrected Rightmove index. Obviously June/July is the seasonal peak and NSA prices are likely to drop further into August/Sept on seasonal grounds, but this roll-over in SA prices looks real enough and is consistent with the hit taken in approvals/transactions at the start of the year (by stamp duty changes) not having shown any signs of recovering and the increase in stock following from HPIs changes. Other indicators, including the house price predictor below agree: here green line = approvals, red line = neutral level, green above red => +ve HPI, red above green => -ve HPI. Source: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/house_price_predictor
  8. This BBC story didn’t look quite right, so worth a Google - the actual story plays out somewhar differently, more like a sorry tail of high stakes gambling and poor judgement: For example, to do English Literature and Theatre Studies at Leeds University requires AAB (A in Language and/or Literature, and an A-level in Theatre studies is actually an advantage given the course title). So baring any mishaps at interview or a dire personal statement that should have been it, and it was, he did indeed get an offer for deferred entry in 2010. But after getting his AAA results decided to reject , take his gap year, and then try for something a bit better (more rigorous, and clearly more risky), again for 2010 entry. His second application was for straight English and, he says, more ambitious but with a ‘not brilliant’ personal statement although now he'll have a bit of ‘tack-record’ to explain away. It leads to five rejections. Link to Student Room (16 July 2010) thread on today’s BBCstory, he is poster Live82005. http://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?p=26447170#post26447170 Looking for ‘safe’ option to do to English for 2011 entry (31 March 2010) http://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?p=24450395#post24450395 Realized he messed up on 2010 Entry (2 March 2010) http://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?p=24005769#post24005769 Get's an offer from Manchester, but puts it down as insurance (the Leeds offer is his firm choice, so that's at least TWO offers he's had at the first attempt and not quite what you might suppose by reading "rejected from all the universities he applied to" on the BBC site) http://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?p=18616048#post18616048
  9. I just love there threads A dose of evil VI spin hiding a full-on house price Armageddon? Or (Heretical Blasphemy) did Nationwide actually work it out correctly? Jun-09 £156,442 NSA £154,918 SA ... May-10 £169,162 NSA £168,302 SA Jun-10 £170,111 NSA £168,424 SA MoM is done with SA figures, so 100*(168424/168302 - 1) = 0.073 and rounds to 0.1% YoY is done on NSA, so 100*(170111/156442 - 1) = 8.7%
  10. Yours for One Million dollars ... May-10 £169,162 NSA £168,302 SA Jun-10 £170,111 NSA £168,424 SA
  11. Looks ok to me, the figures are: Jun-09 £156,442 NSA £154,918 SA ... May-10 £169,162 NSA £168,302 SA Jun-10 £170,111 NSA £168,424 SA MoM is done with SA figures, so 100*(168424/168302 - 1) = 0.073 and rounds to 0.1% YoY is done on NSA, so 100*(170111/156442 - 1) = 8.7%
  12. You can have a look at the HPI estimator on the House Price Predictor page - these show the historical outputs and how they responsed to changes in the market, particularly at turns, and you can eyeball the under/over shoots as the market swings about due to (1) expanded credit during the 2005 mini-boom, then (2) restricted credit during 2007/08, and (3) 2009 'recovery' on restricted supply (low neutral level). Outlook now, although obviously very uncertain, is for both transactions and supply to slowly rise in step but ar a roughly flat(ish) HPI. I'll update it again when the Halifax index comes out next week (or so).
  13. Hi Pent-Up In broad terms we know that HPI correlates with approvals/transactions and that this correlation can be improved upon by learning from the RICS experience and adding in a supply side measure, so it ‘s better to work with something close to the RICS ratio of sales to stock T/S where T=transactions and S = a stock/supply measure. Given that approvals (let’s say M) is a more timely proxy for transactions T, then that in your notation T = M*(1+C/M) where C/M is the ratio of sales funded by cash to those by mortgages. Any modelling of the form HPI ~ f(T/S) can be rewritten as f(M/Q) where Q = S/(1+C/M) and Q = neutral level of approvals. You could estimate C/M using transactions (HMRC) and approvals (BoE) data, or (as I do ) by letting the Kalman filter estimate it directly from the monthly price and approvals data. In my case, the filter estimates Q directly so that other factors beyond supply side variations are in effect lumped in together. Interestingly, as the neutral level Q output is (essentially) a slowly varying estimate, when the market does change quickly (mortgage famine, rush for the doors, etc) the HPI output (up or down) is overestimated, at least until the neutral level catches up) – this works well as a ‘market turn indicator’.
  14. To be fair, despite all the obvious objections rightmove's asking price index does have quite an impressive track record when you compare the historical YoY HPI against the others, For example, here's the HPI from the other suspects, and rightmove is right in there amongst them (light purple line). [and in stark contrast with Home.co.uk not shown for obvious reasons!]
  15. Obviously this is asking prices but here’s the seasonally adjusted version (usual SA methodology: single pass, 1-year rolling average trend, 4-year window). In this case the SA trend is still stubbornly up - note that the seasonal adjustment needed in May is 2.2% down and only 1.8% in June, so in this case a small NSA change with a reducing (negative) SA comes out as a rise extending the current trend. May was -0.48% MoM SA, June +0.57% MoM SA. Rightmove Seasonally Adjusted, including todays figure for June/10 Edit : added % SA MoM.
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