Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
5lab

Nationwide - Up 1.3% Mom, Down 6.3% Yoy, +7.5% Trough-to-peak

Recommended Posts

just watching beeb breakfast, they were introducing the segments 'later' and had the guy from business on to say

'according to nationwide, house prices have risen by more than a percent, the third rise in a row'

oops! cat out of the bag

(queue conspiracy theories)

edit : up 1.3%, down 6.3% yoy - up 7.5% trough-to-peak

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8175479.stm

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jul_2009.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

up 1.3% mom after 1.0% gain last month

i can believe it based on experience in london. cheeky bids that were considered in march rejected out of hands now. estate agents surprised at reasonable offers being rejected. friends selling property 10% off peak in days a few months ago. now someone i know sold at 2007 peak in one weekend

it has gone frenzy crazy i'm afraid given the slashing of base rates to 0.5% nobody is forced to sell. repos do go for good prices and sell in one day but not many around

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The last gasp of the Dead Cat ?

could well be. when rates rise again we'll prob have another crash... but from what i read of the boe minutes they're not doing that anytime over the next year

2013 will be an almighty recession in my view

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The last gasp of the Dead Cat ?

This should bring a FULL FLOOD of properties for sale

true.. it's really weird. an increase in confidence should mean all those 'developers' who didn't sell should sell now... hope so!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
could well be. when rates rise again we'll prob have another crash... but from what i read of the boe minutes they're not doing that anytime over the next year

2013 will be an almighty recession in my view

Mortgage rates and BOE rates will decouple sooner than that in my view.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mortgage rates and BOE rates will decouple sooner than that in my view.

true we should be seeing a slowdown in sales as fixed rate mortgages have already risen as 'green shoots' in manufacturing i.e a they reopen a factory they closed down in february means people think we have a full on recovery.

in early 2010 i think fixed rate mortgages will come back down as people will realise the boe is not going to raise rates for a long time. they didnt in the early 1990s so why would they this time? unless the housing market continues to go mental!

but for existing customers forced onto svr because they cant refinance i dont see rates going up, though someone told me an irish bank recently raised its svr?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest absolutezero
Mortgage rates and BOE rates will decouple sooner than that in my view.

Thought they already had....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
in early 2010 i think fixed rate mortgages will come back down as people will realise the boe is not going to raise rates for a long time. they didnt in the early 1990s so why would they this time? unless the housing market continues to go mental!

but for existing customers forced onto svr because they cant refinance i dont see rates going up, though someone told me an irish bank recently raised its svr?

Real interest rates are set by the markets. The amount owed by developed countries to developing countries has breached credibility. We are an increasingly bad risk as borrowers in Europe, US. Threfore rates will increase. There is nothing the BoE or the government can do about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Real interest rates are set by the markets. The amount owed by developed countries to developing countries has breached credibility. We are an increasingly bad risk as borrowers in Europe, US. Threfore rates will increase. There is nothing the BoE or the government can do about it.

they could create hyperinflation. prices would fall in euro/remnimbi terms. but i bet zimbabwean house prices have gone up in zimbabwean dollars over the last 5 years ! (i have a 50 trillion note in my pocket to remind me of what will happen here soon!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sod this, just what I didn't want to hear, Ive got a large deposit in the bank getting no interest and I'm 30 in feb, i allways said if i hadn't bought a house by the time i was 30 I wouldn't bother. as a tradesman I dont want to be working past 50 trashing my body to an early grave just to pay a huge mortgage off. This watching of the monthly figures is mind numbing for me. i should have bought years ago and am a fool for not doing so.

Oh well, onwards and upwards. think i'll start looking at a bigger house to rent as this shitty shoe box is draining my energies. lol. I'm out of HPC! even though i know they will have to fall sooner or later, i just havnt got the years in me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

dammit. this can't be described as a blip now, it's a proper mini-recovereh in house prices.

how long will it last? who knows.

what is causing it? i can't imagine... like slaughterhouse cattle rutting, the british populace seems determined that, if it's going down, it's taking some overpriced pwoperdee with it. pathetic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BBC breakfast, 'it's good news but don't get too excited' that quote from a mortgage broker.

Meanwhile the interviewer taps his pen in frustration, says 'you people never stick your necks out'

Clearly wants more. Greed incarnate on the BBC. I smell a BTL leech, pass the salt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my opinion, and most of them on here are that houses have to fall another 40%

with all this crap, it gives the sellers more to say no about taking too low offers.

and boe rates not to rise for at least a year.

no wonder some people have had enough

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sorry, but I have to ask...

Is this a serious post?

Or are you "describing a frustrated buyer's attitude". If the later, well done.

You hit it better than I could have.

I'd say it was a serious post, and I can see that he only joined in 08, but he is really summing up well the feelings of people who have stood on the sidelines expecting a crash for the whole of the decade, been gee'ed on by the know it alls on this site who actually knew fukk all and when, like the broken clock that tells the time right every so often, the crash finally came they smugly patted each other on the back and said they were right all along. Well played to the poster and good luck. DYOR must always be the maxim.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If they're still going up in Oct, Nov and Dec, I may be convinced we're past the bottom. I doubt this will be the case.

House prices are still massively overvalued for new entrants to the market, that includes FTBs and BTL now with tighter requirements for mortgages. And in a near-deflationary environment where wages are on hold or falling we can't expect salaries to catch up with house prices.

The current housing market is still completely moribund with levels of sales less than half the number normally required to stabilise house prices, let alone see rising prices.

This is not a normal housing market, a unique set of factors - low supply and low interest rates is allowing a minority to buy and drive the current market. It is not going to produce a sustainable recovery in house prices.

When these buyers have been flushed out (this autumn/winter?), when the government starts cutting public spending dramatically (next July onwards?) or when interest rates rise (2yrs onwards?) the support for the market will evaporate, all hope will be lost and prices will dive with no further recovery until the bottom.

Patience is required, my estimate was always for the bottom of the housing market to be around 2016

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"Sod this, just what I didn't want to hear, Ive got a large deposit in the bank getting no interest and I'm 30 in feb, i allways said if i hadn't bought a house by the time i was 30 I wouldn't bother. as a tradesman I dont want to be working past 50 trashing my body to an early grave just to pay a huge mortgage off. This watching of the monthly figures is mind numbing for me. i should have bought years ago and am a fool for not doing so.

Oh well, onwards and upwards. think i'll start looking at a bigger house to rent as this shitty shoe box is draining my energies. lol. I'm out of HPC! even though i know they will have to fall sooner or later, i just havnt got the years in me."

Sorry, but I have to ask...

Is this a serious post?

Or are you "describing a frustrated buyer's attitude". If the later, well done.

You hit it better than I could have.

This is how most people feel. That's why panic can drive this market much farther than you'd expect. That's why, when it comes down to it, the economy may adjust by social change (to a victorian system) rather than by the numbers. I know quite a few people in their mid 30 s who feel like it's now or never. They are buying. They just feel they can't wait. You need to be in your FINAL house by the time your 40. It will all end in tears, but in the end your dead anyway. People should be on the streets, but they're too stupid to realise they're being done. It's a genius of a plan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   295 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.