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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by jac

  1. as a hpc member and a paid up subscriber to property bee i would welcome a link between the two at the very least free linky but if it can help with the web hosting costs perhaps or sharing advertisers then that would be great. i guess not many people go to the propertybee website so they wont get the link so maybe hpc can share some bandwidth? for me propertybee and hpc go hand in hand as hpc is all about finding the truth with house prices - are they selling? are they cutting prices or raising them? are estate agents changing descriptions on properties as they were previously telling porkies etc etc
  2. no - the landlords will not evict you if you donate your kidney to him or his cousin
  3. already posted two replies to two other posts please delete
  4. greenspan was pushing it a lot in 2003/04 basically he was worried about deflation (remember bernanke's helicopter speech at the time?) by encouraging people to believe rates would remain low for longer people thought it was safe to go on teaser/arms. he wanted people to get lower rates so they could refinance, get more debt, keep the ponzi finance scheme going again after the ponzi nasdaq blewup and the fed was so gentle in raising rates believing market rates would price in higher rates and shift the yield curve up did they hell. they just believed the fed was a wimp and would never hurt them a bundesbank style surprise 100bp hike in 2004 would have saved us all from global meltdown 4 year's later
  5. he distorted human behaviour by being a wimp! quick to slash rates, slow to hike them! if he'd just hiked rates quicker and stopped bailing out wall street and his politician and business colleagues at every tick down in the s&p500 we'd all be in jobs now worst central banker in history.
  6. this guy knows all about crises as he is the one who has fuelled the greatest ponzi finance scheme in all time (except perhaps pensions and health care funded by social security taxes) he will go down in history as the worst central banker ever he was a business lobbyist and politician's friend before he got the job
  7. it will be when hyperinflation comes, which is why i've reluctantly decided to take my money out of cash and back into property if i bought gold they would probably confiscate it just like the us did in the 1930s
  8. presumably these reluctant landlords are now selling their property, capping the recovery in prices seen since QE began?
  9. that's why i think the boe wil be very very slow to raise rates.. i think we're like the US in 2003 now, people on very low ARMS and if they BOE gradually raise rates we'll probably have another recession in 2012/13. In particular we think the world economy will be almost back to normal by end 2011 so rates will have to rise to offset imported inflation, particularly of oil
  10. I think the original poster has an extremely valid point We HPC'ers might not believe the price is irrelevant but we are not myopic sheep like everyone else. I did similar research in 2004 and found that as soon as interest rates are lowered, debt levels went up. People spend the same on interest per month as before, rather than spend less on mortgages and enjoy other things. My current research says it's the same in the US - when maturity of loans were extended people snap them up and pay the same monthly amount just over a longer time Now I think this is stupid as how are you supposed to pay off your debts when you're retired? But most people view property as something that can only rise in price - so it's a ponzi finance scheme For what it's worth I've reluctantly jumped back on the property market for fear of more reckless QE (and have a baby on the way and don't want landlord issues) I've been on here since 2004 but originally had a different log in and I'm also a contributor to other areas of this site. I can understand the frustration of people who haven't been able to get on the property ladder. But I am getting disappointed with the negative attitude of a lot of posters. You can flame me or call me a troll if you like. But I just like interesting ideas and debate and thought the original poster's work was very interesting. Thanks
  11. i felt quite sorry for the computer programmer 35 year old guy was determined to get something that was a good investment!!! not a place to live.. in 2007.. oh dear...... why don't they do a follow up where they go back a year later and say hey how's negative equity treating you? did you know your mortgage is about to double? unfortunately the boe then ended this dream by slashing rates
  12. 6 of the top 7 chinese brands are joint ventures with VW, honda, toyota etc etc. so i reckon they pass the safety test. why does everyone assume if it's in china it;'s crap - bit complacent when our economy has been run off unsustainable debt rather than hard work?
  13. interesting when i last looked things were going crazy.. my best indicator is when we see cancelled sales and they call you up about them again
  14. the japanese took a decade to do it and didn't put their heart in it they had hyperinflation after ww2 the uk/us are scared of great depression 2... i'm shocked by what they did today and relieved that i agreed to buy a house recently even if i had to pay a lot more than i hoped the market is so tight now. i used to get a list of repod properties from a company... there are no more repos in london anymore! zimbabwe here we come!
  15. hi there thanks for this as i've been saying to everyone who will listen the market has changed in recent months. cheeky bids (well realistic bids ie 20-25% off peak) were seriously considered at the start of the year but now laughed out of hand qe/zero rates/rise in stock markets has reduced pressure on people to sell at distressed prices/increased confidence/inflation expectations and so people are not selling unless they get a decent price we've had to pay a lot lot lot more than we were hoping to
  16. no but i'd be interested i always thought they were too high i used to look at previous selling prices and then compare them with the local area land registry price index but this always gave better value! alas i suspect zoopla is more accurate as to what vendors will accurately sell for these days. cheeky bids no longer considered.
  17. the market has changed over the past few months i was putting in cheeky bids a few months ago and they were being considered they're now laughed at i dont know where all the buyers are coming from but since march and qe and zero rates and the recovery in stockmarket there is increased confidence from sellers they dont need to sell and are only selling at higher prices and there are a few people scared enough by the govt wiping out their savings to pay higher prices than they would have had to in march sorry to say but it's true... i'm in the same boat
  18. sounds a sensible forecast people overextrapolating the green shoots of reopening a factory they closed in february interest-rate expectations to fall back early next year
  19. they could create hyperinflation. prices would fall in euro/remnimbi terms. but i bet zimbabwean house prices have gone up in zimbabwean dollars over the last 5 years ! (i have a 50 trillion note in my pocket to remind me of what will happen here soon!)
  20. true we should be seeing a slowdown in sales as fixed rate mortgages have already risen as 'green shoots' in manufacturing i.e a they reopen a factory they closed down in february means people think we have a full on recovery. in early 2010 i think fixed rate mortgages will come back down as people will realise the boe is not going to raise rates for a long time. they didnt in the early 1990s so why would they this time? unless the housing market continues to go mental! but for existing customers forced onto svr because they cant refinance i dont see rates going up, though someone told me an irish bank recently raised its svr?
  21. true.. it's really weird. an increase in confidence should mean all those 'developers' who didn't sell should sell now... hope so!
  22. could well be. when rates rise again we'll prob have another crash... but from what i read of the boe minutes they're not doing that anytime over the next year 2013 will be an almighty recession in my view
  23. up 1.3% mom after 1.0% gain last month i can believe it based on experience in london. cheeky bids that were considered in march rejected out of hands now. estate agents surprised at reasonable offers being rejected. friends selling property 10% off peak in days a few months ago. now someone i know sold at 2007 peak in one weekend it has gone frenzy crazy i'm afraid given the slashing of base rates to 0.5% nobody is forced to sell. repos do go for good prices and sell in one day but not many around
  24. For all you propertybee freaks out there, I've caught churchills estates cheating the system we bid for a property. it was rejected and we were told last weekend it had 'sold' to someone else in fact, propertybee/rightmove did say it was sold but i got an email from the agent today saying the property has been reduced to a new price oh so the sale was cancelled i said to myself? loaded up rightmove/propertybee and found the old property had gone and a new one at the reduced price had appeared so they're not showing that the sale has been cancelled / reduced and therefore that the vendor is desperate! which is a shame as they're the kind of properties i like to see as means the vendor is keen to sell!
  25. i missed out on a repo - went to another cash buyer was listed for ages at x by another estage agent then got repod and cut by a third by a new estate agent who doesnt play the area much (so wont annoy existing customers by repricing the street lower).... this was a good price late 2003 price... we bid x + 5% cash but someone else bid a bit more the property sold in a WEEK! you gotta be quick on repos
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