HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 It is going from bad to worse now for the bears.My predictions have been confirmed. I fear for the mental health on some on this site. Oh well, at least I tried to warned you lot, HPC was going to be over in spring/summer. Not yet..... Theres still the "bear trap" to come this winter when we see a few months of small falls, before the recovery begins good and proper in Q2 2010. But it is fun watching them squirm for the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deckard Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 The FX markets loved the news, Sterling is up very strong this morning. Money is flowing into the UK to snap up property while prices are still relatively low. It's more to do with this http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=118644 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the primitive Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 It is going from bad to worse now for people who don't like being in debt and paying over the odds for things. Fixed. But do come back and post again this time next year won't you We can wait. Cash buyers/those with large deposits must be drying up. Mortgage availability and lending still flat at best, well below historical norms. Fixed rates rising. Unemployment rising. Retail Sales falling. Government spending to be cut soon whatever lies they peddle. Big price falls inevitable, no fundamental economic indicator has gone bullish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 Men In A Boat Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 All the bulls out today then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tegan Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Everyone should stay calm because there's no mechanism for house prices to start rising again other than short term anomalies caused by very low volumes and cash buyers. Could the bulls explain to everyone where the funding is going to come from for people to pay nearly 6.5x average salary when mortgages are no longer available at that level and are not likely to be for years? Face facts, there's no money out there for people to pay 6.5x average salary so prices will either have to fall to the long term 50 year average of 3.5x or the market will remain dead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 It is going from bad to worse now for the bears.My predictions have been confirmed. I fear for the mental health on some on this site. Oh well, at least I tried to warned you lot, HPC was going to be over in spring/summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
symo Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 It is going from bad to worse now for the bears.My predictions have been confirmed. I fear for the mental health on some on this site. Oh well, at least I tried to warned you lot, HPC was going to be over in spring/summer. Err which thread were these accurate predictions in o oracle of the market. Funny Hamish is back spreading his love after being seriously quiet for a while. Rents still dropping in Kensington and west London; more falls to come. UK heading for zombie banks a la Nippon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pie-eater Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8125728.stm Quote: Although the rival survey from the Halifax has also detected a recent upturn in prices, more comprehensive figures from the Land Registry for England and Wales reported that prices had still fallen in May, by 0.2%. This meant the annual rate at which prices had dropped was 15.9%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Funny Hamish is back spreading his love after being seriously quiet for a while. I've made over 150 posts in the last 2 weeks...... Hardly "quiet for a while"....... Silly bears..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hpc-craig Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Good news as far as I'm concerned. We need more property on the market and this 'good news' will help to deliver. I've certainly seen more property coming on since last months figures were released. I overheard a local EA talking to my boss the other day - "more people looking to sell, but most of the buyers have gone or are no longer interested". We were looking during this 'bounce' but gave up because of the amount of dross, all overpriced, on the market. The funny thing is that people are saying - "you should of bought something whilst you had the chance". SO there we have it. Buy a house, any house, it doesn't really matter so that you have the pleasure of a huge debt for the next 25 years. Clearly i am wasting money renting my house in the country where the landlord mows the lawn. I should do what everyone else says and rent from the bank on an ex-council estate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
symo Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Something else starting to creep into the media. BBC Breakfast stating that prices "Are still above the sustainable affordability average" in relation to earnings. Are the sheeple being drip fed ready for a return to 3 times multiples or lower. Oh banks still ain't lending. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Everyone should stay calm because there's no mechanism for house prices to start rising again other than short term anomalies caused by very low volumes and cash buyers.Could the bulls explain to everyone where the funding is going to come from for people to pay nearly 6.5x average salary when mortgages are no longer available at that level and are not likely to be for years? Face facts, there's no money out there for people to pay 6.5x average salary so prices will either have to fall to the long term 50 year average of 3.5x or the market will remain dead. Ummmm, not quite. The CML average loan to income for actual buyers never crossed 3.5 times even at peak. It's around 3 times income now. Epic Fail, try again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadman Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 I've made over 150 posts in the last 2 weeks...... Hardly "quiet for a while"....... Silly bears..... Always the multiple smilies nowadays eh? Enjoy it while it lasts. My prediction is you'll be long gone by this time next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ray Valentine Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Everyone should stay calm because there's no mechanism for house prices to start rising again other than short term anomalies caused by very low volumes and cash buyers.Could the bulls explain to everyone where the funding is going to come from for people to pay nearly 6.5x average salary when mortgages are no longer available at that level and are not likely to be for years? Face facts, there's no money out there for people to pay 6.5x average salary so prices will either have to fall to the long term 50 year average of 3.5x or the market will remain dead. I saw the BBC guy reporting the Nationwide rise, he was at great pains to point out that houses are still grossly overpriced judging by historical wage ratios, and that as base rates are also at historic lows, it was too early to be thinking about true recovery. In fact he said that the BOE, the FED etc are all anticipating a 'W' shaped recession. Considering they were reporting a monthly rise the report actually came across extremely bearish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadman Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Ummmm, not quite.The CML average loan to income for actual buyers never crossed 3.5 times even at peak. It's around 3 times income now. Epic Fail, try again. It's those masses of £75k houses on the market that are to blame Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zebbedee Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 More money than can be imagined has been thrown at the "problem" of getting banks to lend money to people at "normal" levels. It's only to be expected that this bounce is the result. It just goes to confirm that anything and everything will be sacraficed on the altar of house prices by the government.I'll echo the sentiments above though, i'm getting a bit plucking tired of waiting for a decent correction to take place. I'm now seriously questioning whether it's worth waiting for cheaper housing to happen in the UK or take up a job offer in another country with a good rental sector. I've been saying this for a while now, I'll be quite happy if they pull off the con of the century and steady the ship for a couple of years. It would give me more time to prepare, I can always rent whilst the ship being steadied saves the pound for a bit and use that oportunity to buy assets that do not depend of the BoE p!ssing new money up the wall. Then when the next calamity strikes and the lender nations say "Ah but you not pay back the last lot" I'll be quids in, pack a small bag and bugger off. Anyone who owns a highly valued house could pack that up as well-oh. Coversely, I don't think they have nor will manage it and the sh!t hits the fan again next month, give it 2 months of falls on haliwide and there you'll have the rush for the exits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricor mortis Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 The U.K. is bust and the only game plan in town is to live on borrowed money. How long can this be sustained really ....consider a date in the future where this is no longer supported by the markets....thats when HPC proper begins. We are bust, the clearance sales are inevitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ray Valentine Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Something else starting to creep into the media. BBC Breakfast stating that prices "Are still above the sustainable affordability average" in relation to earnings. Are the sheeple being drip fed ready for a return to 3 times multiples or lower. Oh banks still ain't lending. That's exactly what the report felt like to me. The guy strongly intimated that we won't have 'recovery' until we get down to the historical wage multiple average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE BALD MAN Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Not yet..... Theres still the "bear trap" to come this winter when we see a few months of small falls, before the recovery begins good and proper in Q2 2010. But it is fun watching them squirm for the moment. Questiuon: What will trigger the recovery. Will it be the increase in unemployment or the reduction in government spending or increase in interest rates. You really do not get it and how bad the UK situation is.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExecutiveSlaveBox Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 (edited) Everyone should stay calm because there's no mechanism for house prices to start rising again other than short term anomalies caused by very low volumes and cash buyers.Could the bulls explain to everyone where the funding is going to come from for people to pay nearly 6.5x average salary when mortgages are no longer available at that level and are not likely to be for years? Face facts, there's no money out there for people to pay 6.5x average salary so prices will either have to fall to the long term 50 year average of 3.5x or the market will remain dead. Nail hit head. We have just witnessed a load of Bulls shooting their load over the unbelievable bargains of 10-20% off peak. As this subsides the real crash begins, slowly over many years and at the end by a very large amount. All the building blocks for the last boom are simply not there anymore. Edited June 30, 2009 by ExecutiveSlaveBox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lander Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Not yet..... Theres still the "bear trap" to come this winter when we see a few months of small falls, before the recovery begins good and proper in Q2 2010. But it is fun watching them squirm for the moment. I see your back encouraging people to commit financial suicide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 It's those masses of £75k houses on the market that are to blame No, it's the fact that only the top 60% to 70% of earners are actual house buyers that is to blame. Mean average full time male salary is around 30K for all people.. When you remove the bottom 30% or 40% of earners it's around 50K. At that point, 3.5 times single salary is 175K, and 3 times joint (assuming the wife makes a lot less) is 225K. The fact that the average house price at peak was in between those figures, and CML verifies lending average at peak was around 3.5 times income, is no coincidence. If you want to blame something, blame the fact that a lot of people make a lot more money than you think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 I Still maintain that the only people buying at the moment with mortgages are determined to buy a house at any cost. LR will reflect cash purchases and the disparity between brainwashed mortgaged buyers and savvy cash buyers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE BALD MAN Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 No, it's the fact that only the top 60% to 70% of earners are actual house buyers that is to blame.Mean average full time male salary is around 30K for all people.. When you remove the bottom 30% or 40% of earners it's around 50K. At that point, 3.5 times single salary is 175K, and 3 times joint (assuming the wife makes a lot less) is 225K. The fact that the average house price at peak was in between those figures, and CML verifies lending average at peak was around 3.5 times income, is no coincidence. If you want to blame something, blame the fact that a lot of people make a lot more money than you think. Total bull I am afraid Hamish. So 30 to 40 percent of the population can not afford houses...ergo prices must fall to affordable levels or are you saying the top 60 to 70 percent will buy up all the houses because they are great bargains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 Men In A Boat Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 No, it's the fact that only the top 60% to 70% of earners are actual house buyers that is to blame.Mean average full time male salary is around 30K for all people.. When you remove the bottom 30% or 40% of earners it's around 50K. I would like to see the evidence backing this statement? Please provide? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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