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Everything posted by Deckard

  1. Like most bitter posters who keep flogging a dead horse in this pathetic thread. Kudos to you for showing some intellectual honesty in the face of reality, and amending your views accordingly.
  2. I'm not sure this model is going to stick in the medium/long term though. If I were still two or three decades away from retirement I'd think twice before loading up on debt to buy a family home in a rural area, based on the assumption that WFH is the new normal. Forever is a very long time... By way of example, this time last year many bright minds were forecasting a permanent shift away from efficiency in favour of resilience in manufacturing, following the global PPE shortage in the early days of the pandemic. Twelve months down the line, very little has actually changed at all.
  3. Yep. It's laughable how EAs have been calling for a "new paradigm" whereby WFH is going to be the norm from here to eternity, in an effort to pump rural/semirural property prices. Good luck with your converted barn in the middle of nowhere when the boss tells you to get back to the office pronto - or else.
  4. It is most definitely an issue, when you put it in context with the general outlook in ocean freight. The charges for ocean containers are going through the roof ATM. Shipping quotes are only good for two weeks and departures from ports get postponed on a regular basis. This baby is very, very real - and here to stay for the foreseeable future.
  5. Nah, they were living in an apartment with rent control (there are over a million in NYC, including in the Village).
  6. Britain's first 40-year fixed-rate mortgage unveiled The Habito One mortgage rates start at 2.99pc with a range of deposit options from 40pc to 10pc, with the lender confirming plans to offer 5pc mortgages later this year. The 40-year 90pc loan has a fixed interest rate of 5.35pc.
  7. The basics: Bond Price And Yield Relationship Yield curve control Bonds are getting sold as traders expect higher interest rates in future, due to the threat of inflation overshooting CB's stated targets.
  8. ^ this. BTC is trading like a high beta stonk at the moment, no more, no less.
  9. US 10yr yield just shot up to 1.54 after Powell failed to announce (or at least mention) YCC in a speech, in response to the ongoing bond rout. I still think the Fed will cave in at some point, but watch this space... EDIT: And of course all risk assets puked in synch as a result.
  10. If rates do rise in a meaningful way (and it's a big if, admittedly), do you really think a fair chunk of overpriced slave box wouldn't see > 20% falls ?
  11. Good post. From the PDF file: The government will provide lenders with the option to purchase a guarantee on the top-slice of the mortgage. In other words, the government will compensate the mortgage lender for a portion of the net losses suffered in the event of repossession. The guarantee will apply down to 80 per cent of the purchase value of the guaranteed property. No indication of what the cost of the guarantee is going be (there's bound to be a range based on different factors), but it's a safe bet that lenders will pass this on to borrowers under the scheme. Also: a mortgage eligible for a guarantee under the scheme will need to: • be a residential mortgage (not second homes) and not buy-to-let • be taken out by an individual or individuals rather than an incorporated company • be on a property in the UK with purchase value of £600,000 or less • have a loan-to-value of between 91 per cent and 95 per cent • be originated between the dates specified by the scheme • be a repayment mortgage and not interest-only and • meet standard requirements in terms of the assessment of the borrower’s ability to pay the mortgage, for example a loan-to-income and credit score test
  12. I meant the impact it might have on local HPs?
  13. @Si1 how do you feel about that?
  14. "Irrational exhuberance" just doesn't cut it anymore. On Thursday, asset manager VanEck will launch the VanEck Vectors Social Sentiment ETF, which offers exposure to stocks with “the most bullish investor sentiment and perception. Dave Portnoy, founder of Barstool Sports and the self-proclaimed king of the retail trading boom, tweeted an elaborately produced “emergency press conference” video to debut the ETF. Emergency Press Conference - Introducing $BUZZ ETF “The product is a little mind-blowing,” said Tyler Gellasch, executive director of Healthy Markets. Gellasch thinks that the ETF “appears to be capitalizing on what could very well be determined by SEC and FINRA to be market manipulation,” he said in an interview. “People who may have direct influence over the value of the individual securities are involved in the offering of the product. Think of all the potential conflicts of interest and self-dealings you could have, things like potential front-running. Their own Twitter feeds, their own public statements could change the value of the underlying securities and impact the underlying portfolio.”
  15. Conveyancers get it, will Sunak listen? The Society of Licensed Conveyancers (SLC), the Bold Legal Group (BLG) and the Conveyancing Association, have united to pen a joint letter to the chancellor proposing that a completely different approach is taken to removing stamp duty on properties up to £500,000 which is currently due to expire on 31st March. The proposed approach is simple – allow any transaction on which a conveyancing lawyer has been formally instructed by a buyer before 28th February 2021 to qualify for the exemption provided the property purchase completes within 12 months. Simon Law, SLC Chairperson, said: “Restoring the property market to a sense of normality has to be the priority as we emerge from the effects of the Covid pandemic restrictions. “The SDLT ‘holiday’ has had the effect of injecting an unsustainable stimulus into the market. Bringing it to an end with a ‘cliff edge’ expiry date will result in a post code lottery worth several thousand pounds to some and not others, and has already created considerable stress on buyers, lawyers, lenders, search companies and local authorities amongst others.” By allowing ‘natural market forces to resume in the property market’, the post code lottery ‘would be removed, and transactions would follow their normal path to completion without an artificial time constraint’, it is claimed.
  16. One thing for sure, if the US liberal left decides that BTC is bad for the planet, hold on to your hat... The NYT was first off the gates. Bitcoin’s bad energy Among the reasons Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is skeptical of the promise of Bitcoin (see above) is its energy use. As she told Andrew yesterday, “It’s an extremely inefficient way to conduct transactions and the amount of energy consumed in those transactions is staggering. On these shores, the Grauniad is already on it. Electricity needed to mine bitcoin is more than used by 'entire countries' Environmentalists say that mining is still a cause for concern particularly because miners will go wherever electricity is cheapest and that may mean places that use coal. According to Cambridge, China has the most bitcoin mining of any country by far. While the country has been slowly moving toward renewable energy, about two-thirds of its electricity comes from coal. Since there is no government body or organization that officially tracks where bitcoin is being mined and what type of electricity miners are using, there is no way of knowing whether miners are using electricity that is fueled by renewable energy or fossil fuels. Mining rigs can move from place to place depending on where energy is cheapest, which makes mining particularly hard to track. “The places where you mine [bitcoin] can be moved around and, in some cases, you don’t even know where they are”
  17. Nah, he's more likely to be six feet under in 2024 than get elected again.
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