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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by HAMISH_MCTAVISH

  1. Indeed. The whole delayed post thing does make it difficult to participate. Which would seem to be the point.
  2. Yes I know Harry, I have enjoyed many a positive debate with yourself and many other bears on this site. And thanks to all who have posted their support in this and other threads. As it seems all our posts are now being time delayed for mod approval as well as new thread starts, the level and intensity of debate possible even under troll status has just been degraded still further. I fail to see how this can be good for open and honest interaction, or good in any way for the long term viability of a website and forum built on debate.
  3. ALL of the most regular bulls were given troll status. Every one of them. Not a single one of the bear trolls were given troll status. No matter how abusive or insulting their posting style, no matter how much online bullying they engage in, and no matter how much repetitive spam they post. That tells you everything you need to know really. Open debate is not welcome, bulls are not welcome. One sided self-congratulatory group think only. When house prices go up, when people start to listen to or engage the bulls in debate, their status gets changed to troll. And as was posted earlier in the thread, apparently this is not the first time. So, no ability to post positive articles (without hours of delay to let a bear spin it first), no ability to communicate directly with the mods to ask why, no ability to PM, no communication about it, no warnings....... Hardly fair, balanced, or neutral, which is surely what moderation is supposed to be all about? Just an action designed to hinder the communication of all the bulls on the site, and try and discredit their argument to new members. If that is the only way bears can win the debate, it is a shallow victory indeed.
  4. One more time...... The average full time male income, mean, is already 30K when you include all people. When you exclude the bottom 30% or 40% of earners, the average (mean, male, full time income) jumps to close to 50K. Particularly when all income is included, ie, bonuses, overtime, etc. This is not the same as saying that the top 60% of either males or everybody earn 50K or over a year. Think about it........
  5. Solicitors, doctors and dentists are on closer to 100K unless they're just starting out. 50K these days is sales rep or middle manager territory. And there are vast areas of the country where 120K to 150K will buy a 3 bed terrace or semi. WHich puts it within reach of a low paid couple (low paid by house buying standards) such as a teacher and nurse, a secretary and lorry driver, a pub manager and cook, etc. Buying is not the preserve of the rich, nor even of the professional classes, but it does require a skilled worker level of income. Plenty of cabbies and lorry drivers able to buy in vast areas of the country. Minimum wage burger flippers? Not so much.....
  6. But 25% to 30% live ion council/social housing and so do not need to be able to afford to buy. Home ownership is not now, and never has been, affordable by 100% of the population. I'm saying the same thing will happen as has always happened.. The ownership of property will be the reserve of those that can afford it. And those that can't will be renters, either form the state or private landlords. Just as it always has been.
  7. No, it's the fact that only the top 60% to 70% of earners are actual house buyers that is to blame. Mean average full time male salary is around 30K for all people.. When you remove the bottom 30% or 40% of earners it's around 50K. At that point, 3.5 times single salary is 175K, and 3 times joint (assuming the wife makes a lot less) is 225K. The fact that the average house price at peak was in between those figures, and CML verifies lending average at peak was around 3.5 times income, is no coincidence. If you want to blame something, blame the fact that a lot of people make a lot more money than you think.
  8. Yes. The average price of sold property has indeed risen 18% in two months. Don't be ridiculous. When did I claim that? Neither. They were part of a typical spring bounce for a Scottish market. Although much stronger than expected. We will see small falls next winter. But the bigger and longer the bounce is, the less the likelyhood that the upcoming falls will be enough to cancel it out before the recovery next year.
  9. Ummmm, not quite. The CML average loan to income for actual buyers never crossed 3.5 times even at peak. It's around 3 times income now. Epic Fail, try again.
  10. I've made over 150 posts in the last 2 weeks...... Hardly "quiet for a while"....... Silly bears.....
  11. Not yet..... Theres still the "bear trap" to come this winter when we see a few months of small falls, before the recovery begins good and proper in Q2 2010. But it is fun watching them squirm for the moment.
  12. Yes, theres something wrong there, thats not the same document I accessed this morning. In fact, this mornings one was more recent and on an interactive flash reader not a pdf. Check the scottish section.
  13. Wait...... People make mistakes when typing?????????? Nooooooooo........ Good thing I'm not ccc or this entire post would have consisted of......... TROLL!!!!!!!!!!!!! TROLL!!!!!!!!!!!!! OUTED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  14. Oh, they will be. But just in TINY increments...... Thats the flaw in your plan. I'd expect repo's to be even lower and the bailout to be ramped up further that close to an election.
  15. I have to say this is one of the better debates by far I've had on this site. Will return to it tomorrow night, as have to work early. Cheers
  16. Don't worry about it. All Sybily's posts end up like this. It makes no difference how often you point out the obvious fallacies, it's back being spammed in another thread within minutes....
  17. ROFLMAO Posting a link to the Register of Scotland website, which confirms the actual sold prices of house sales in Scotland. Noting it shows price rises of 18% in two months for Edinburgh. And doing it all on a house price crash website of all places!!!!! So thats "trolling" is it? You are a funny little person, ccc. Desperate, but funny. Odd though, you never questioned it when it was showing big falls on the way down.......
  18. Sybil has never let reality or facts get in the way of a good spamming session..... 1+1 = Eleventy!!!!!!!
  19. http://www.ros.gov.uk/public/news/latest_house_prices.html April average house price +12% May average house price +6% Technically that would be more than 18%, and techincally it's a few days short of the full month as may prices are from the rolling 28 day average...... So probably higher yet.
  20. Sybil, take your meds, you're obsessed...... BTW, isn't the point of throwing a strop and leaving that you last more than a few hours before you come back looking for attention????
  21. Edinburgh average house price up 18% in just two months, and still some bounce left this year. I doubt you'll see 18% falls next winter.....
  22. Ah Sybily, we already debunked Sybil fallacy 1572 (land of broken chains) this afternoon. True enough, the difference between Sybil and Sibley is only one letter and 10,000 words per post...... BTW, isn't the point of throwing a strop and leaving that you last more than a few hours before you come back looking for attention????
  23. Actually, it does make you considerably more prone to being wrong than a dispassionate, objective approach. The levels of emotion and blind belief on this forum towards HPC are directly comparable to that of religious fanatics or cult members in many cases. Posters like Sybil are a classic example. A constant barrage of twisted logic, repetitive mantras, multi page spamming of the same few tired and outdated quotes, even when events and circumstances have totally changed since. Or Eric and his LIAR LOANS obsession, or Bruce Banner's deranged beliefs that there is a secret society of professional operatives at work getting paid by vested interests to post on HPC. It's cult like levels of obsession taking confirmation bias to a whole new level. The daily contradictions are amazing to see... The one thing that is certain, is that so many people on here have so much emotionally invested in this crash, that they will be the last to see it is over, whenever that finally is. For many eyars after the reocvery begins, there will be people on here posting that it is a bull trap. Very few, if any, people on HPC called the exact timing and cause of the crash, without falsely calling it many times before. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. I have been very cautious not to call the end of this crash, as I am keenly aware that no matter how good the short term numbers may be, it is improbable that it is over just yet. Q2 next year however should be a different story altogether. Thats when I reckon the reocvery will begin, but it will be a long and slow affair. I'll know it when I see it, but nothing to date suggests that it will not be the case. No, I understood what you meant, however I based my statement on the whole cost of buying "over a working life", as you stated, not just the initial purchase price. Assuming mortgage interest of around 6%, the cost of buying is roughly double the purchase price. Do I see a day when the average house is 450K in (adjusted) 2007 money????? Yes. Absolutely. Although by that point in time, population will have increased to the point that only the top 50% of earners (and the bottome segment even of them only on dual income) will be able to afford a house, instead of the top 70% of earners which is the case today..... Yes. If number three had already happened, house price growth would have ended naturally before the credit crunch forced it to. The levels of reposessions would be astronomically higher than they are today in the middle of a recession, and the CML average loan to income ratio of actual house buyers would have exceeded the very conservative 3.5 times income it was at peak. Yes, artificially and temporarily. There is still a vast pool of surplus savings sloshing around the world globally, and the only thing preventing it's return is the possibility of further short term losses. When prices stabilise for a year or two, the percieved risk will diminish, and the appetite for risk amongst global investoprs will have returned. As for the stalemate, what gives will not be the builders. They cannot afford to build any more houses at a loss. They will not, they do not have to, and there is no reason they should. WHy compound existing losses by embarking on a course of action guaranteed to multiply those losses? Madness. I disagree. Even at peak, the cost of renting for a lifetime is double or triple the cost of buying young. Priced out is relative. The price will be paid one way or another. Nice try.
  24. The mentality of the bears....... Prices rising = bulltrap Prices stable = pause before another leg down Approvals rising = great for HPC Lending up = great for HPC Interest rates low = great for HPC Interest rates high = great for HPC Decreasing mortgage product availability = great for HPC Increasing mortgage availabilty = great for HPC VI Ramping = great for HPC No VI Ramping = great for HPC Gordon Brown policies = great for HPC David Cameron policies = great for HPC It doesn't matter what the news, what the discussion, or what the topic...... Someone on this site will find a way to turn it into somehow being good for HPC, and others will follow. You could write an entire psychology thesis just from reading this site for a week. Every single dysfunction imaginable would be represented. Absolutely priceless.
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