Mortgage Approvals Up Again

[Liquid Goldfish]

the large increase in approvals from B/S which I pointed out last month has held almost constant this month

which still confuses me as I thought their funding situation was getting worse, what with being downgraded and also savers removing money

Edited June 2, 2009 by newdman

[Gideon Gono]

All I know is that when interest rates rise, theres going to be hell.

Interest rates wont rise for 12 months and when they do it will be in .25 bp moves. Do you think Mervyn and Ben have got the balls to kill the equity and housing markets? I dont think so.

[Gideon Gono]

Indeed, the place is full of them. Delusional people with messiah complexes, running around posting on websites everywhere, proclaiming the evils of global finance and the tyranny of "debt slavery". In other words, slackers that can't make a proper living and cant afford a house. Very sad indeed.

+1

[spline]

The tricky bit is that as approvals recover the ratio of mortgage sales to cash sales will also recover, and, since we are proxying total sales with the approval number, I’d expect the neutral level to rise again. [the neutral level is implied at the current mortgage-to-cash ratio]

[NewBuildBuyer]

NewBuildBuyer

Group: Members

Posts: 78

Joined: 11-February 09

Member No.: 19,111

Bull or Bear? Bear

The forum is crawling with them.

See below

To be fair I am neither Bull or Bear.

See my previous posts. (i'll create a sig later)

[HAMISH_MCTAVISH]

To be fair I am neither Bull or Bear.

See my previous posts. (i'll create a sig later)

I'd ignore the banner troll, he spends all his time waiting for bulls or neithers to post and then accuses them of being professional trolls.

Then he gets really obsessed about trolls, and goes to the troll subforum (how appropriate) to debate trolls with other trolls.

Strange and sad little man that he is..

[babesagainstmachines]

But careful there Andy, with common sense posts like that you'll end up on BB's sig yourself in a minute.

I love your common sense posts. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZPkrkT6BVQ#t=2m30s

[Namaste]

Whereas you (bears) would like to see people lose their houses/deposits they put down, so you can pick up a cheap repo/or cheap house through a forced seller.

A REAL champion of the people.

Getting your cause and effect mixed up there. If property prices hadn't got so high in the first place (what the bulls wanted and what they continue to desire), then repos wouldn't have elevated in the first place. I think you'll find the bears simply want affordable housing. I'd say there's a few bears on this forum that want to profit from the situation we face, but I guarantee ALL the bulls want to profit from it in some way.

[Bruce Banner]

I'd ignore the banner troll, he spends all his time waiting for bulls or neithers to post and then accuses them of being professional trolls.

Then he gets really obsessed about trolls, and goes to the troll subforum (how appropriate) to debate trolls with other trolls.

Strange and sad little man that he is..

You estate agents all say the same thing .

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1924049

[NewBuildBuyer]

I'd ignore the banner troll, he spends all his time waiting for bulls or neithers to post and then accuses them of being professional trolls.

Then he gets really obsessed about trolls, and goes to the troll subforum (how appropriate) to debate trolls with other trolls.

Strange and sad little man that he is..

I do find him amusing (in a pathetic way!).

In fact there are more than a handful of strange little men on here.

[ccc]

If house prices fall by 50% where I live - they won't be anywhere near 'cheap' in any sense of the word.

[HAMISH_MCTAVISH]

I do find him amusing (in a pathetic way!).

In fact there are more than a handful of strange little men on here.

Indeed, the place is full of them. Delusional people with messiah complexes, running around posting on websites everywhere, proclaiming the evils of global finance and the tyranny of "debt slavery". In other words, slackers that can't make a proper living and cant afford a house. Very sad indeed.

[yellerkat]

Interest rates wont rise for 12 months and when they do it will be in .25 bp moves. Do you think Mervyn and Ben have got the balls to kill the equity and housing markets? I dont think so.

Read the Gilts thread. It's not the Fed / BoE who control longer-term interest rates.

[Sybil13]

How can you say prices are falling when the latest report say they are rising? Take the blinkers off!!

You Fail

Um no, prices have to fall first BEFORE they go up currently not many people seem to have to got this. Currently we have a lot of property on the market still at 2007 values, it would seem the ones that are selling are selling 25 - 30% below the peak, the others are just sitting there. As so few houses are coming onto the market the figures are being skewed, even the lenders admit this. Nationwide said last week that if more property came onto the market HPC would resume. Sellers are holding out thinking we are going back to 2007 values by next year encouraged by the bullish ramping.

However, Rightmove and Savills and others have been saying since the beginning of the year* that sellers need to reduce 25 - 30% from peak, and the current average asking and average selling seems to confirm 31% falls. That is £300000 property minus 30% £210000, if 30% is going to be the bottom, then FIRST the 30% HAS TO COME OFF. We have not got there yet, some are selling at 30% off the others are waiting for 2007 values to comes back, but it doesn't work like that. When we reach the bottom values are not going to shoot back up, they are going to stabilise, those waiting for 2007 values to return will be waiting a long long time.

* Sellers Need to Reduce Prices Feb 2009

How much you reduce your price by depends, to an extent, on regional factors. The few properties that sellers have sold in recent months have done so at a price around 15%-18% lower than at the peak in 2007, on average. Most buyers will be thinking of another year of falls. Therefore pricing your property at around 30% below the peak will work for most sellers.

Many buyers will be unaware of regional differences, so you may find it hard to get as many enquiries if you reduce it by significantly less than 30% for regional reasons. (Parts of the North West, South West, South East and London are such places.) On the other hand, if prices have fallen faster in your area you might get away with just a 30% cut.

March 2009: Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors during a moment of honesty:

Most of the house price indices suggest prices have fallen by up to 20pc from the peak. However, many of our members [surveyors and estate agents] cast doubt on this and calculate independently that the scale of price falls has been even greater − 30pc or more already. They suspect the Nationwide and Halifax figures are underestimating scale of the peak-to-trough fall to date. Looking at the surveys you have to come to the conclusion that we aren't at the bottom by any stretch yet. Our members are still expecting further falls in prices, according to our survey, and if there's anyone you might expect to be talking up the market it is them. There are some glimmers of hope.

Yesterday in relation to Hometrack etc:

The difficulty with the Halifax and Nationwide indices is that they are averages and cover the whole country,’ says Dominic Agace of estate agent, Winkworth. ‘But having said that if you talk to any of our offices they would tell you that prices are off anything up to 25% to 30% compared with the peak.’

Rightmove Index March 2009:

The latest release of Rightmove's house price index shows asking prices on UK property rose 0.9% this month compared to last month.

The report admits that agent's are being forced to up initial advertising prices to win new instructions, amid the fierce competition for the few quality properties that are currently being put onto the market.

That makes the asking price rise, for me, more like bad news than good news. I understand that agent's are trying to survive in a difficult market, but we need to firm out the price drops that we have had, before we can ascertain if they are enough to bring the market to bottom, and accelerate any further drop that may be necessary

In short, by humouring unrealistic vendors over asking prices, agents may be doing nothing more than prolonging their own misery.

The report also said that lack of mortgage availability is hindering market recovery as sellers who have dealt with the market reality and drastically dropped their asking price are faced with buyers unable to obtain finance. Rightmove commercial director Miles Shipside said:

"Some sellers are still pricing wishfully high, though it is encouraging that elements of the market have adapted relatively quickly to find a new price floor at a discount of around 25% from peak

. "

"Until banks get their own houses in order, the active minority of sellers and agents who have drastically adjusted pricing will remain frustrated by the limited functioning of the financial services sector."

So, after its initial optimism the Rightmove index enforces the realisation that the UK property market recovery hinges on two things: vendor realism and mortgage availability. The latter more than likely hinged on a recovery to the wider UK economy, which in my opinion is also necessary to increase buyer numbers sufficiently to bring vendor realism

Both the BOE and CML have said "the green shoots have no roots", everyone knows the market is not sustainable unless property values lose some of the 147% they increased since 1999 there is £200bn of funding gone leaving lenders reliant on dwindling deposits.

And today in relation to the Land Registry figures not even a dead cat bounce:

The mainstream media will generate plenty of opinion today suggesting a 'bottom' of sorts has been reached by the housing market. With transaction numbers at lows not seen since the seventies and mortgage lending 60% down year on year this would be a premature assumption when mortgage lending and sales transactions suggest an undeniable fact; the housing market is in fact dead...

First property prices have to fall, sellers will start to get this but maybe not until the end of the year. NOTHING that I am tracking is selling and I can't have chosen the only properties in Dorset that nobody wants. (Price range £200000 - £250000). You see I think, swayed by bulls like yourself, most sellers read PROPERTY PRICES GOING UP and they think the crash is over and prices will rise from 2007 levels. They fail to read the bit that says property is selling at 30% from peak and that should more properties come on the market with the increased approvals THIS WILL PUSH PRICES DOWN FURTHER. Well at least that is what Nationwide said .

Edited June 2, 2009 by Sybil13

[NewBuildBuyer]

Is that why they buy low ceiling new builds?

Dont have a clue to be honest.

I wont bother to explain why I chose this username (see my earlier posts)

But suffice to say I am not what my username suggests.

[NewBuildBuyer]

Um no, prices have to fall first BEFORE they go up currently not many people seem to have to got this. Currently we have a lot of property on the market still at 2007 values, it would seem the ones that are selling are selling 25 - 30% below the peak, the others are just sitting there. As so few houses are coming onto the market the figures are being skewed, even the lenders admit this. Nationwide said last week that if more property came onto the market HPC would resume. Sellers are holding out thinking we are going back to 2007 values by next year encouraged by the bullish ramping.

However, Rightmove and Savills and others have been saying since the beginning of the year* that sellers need to reduce 25 - 30% from peak, and the current average asking and average selling seems to confirm 31% falls. That is £300000 property minus 30% £210000, if 30% is going to be the bottom, then FIRST the 30% HAS TO COME OFF. We have not got there yet, some are selling at 30% off the others are waiting for 2007 valued to comes back, but it doesn't work like that. When we reach the bottom values are not going to shoot back up, they are going to stabilise, those waiting for 2007 valued to return will be waiting a long long time.

* Sellers Need to Reduce Prices Feb 2009

March 2009: Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors during a moment of honesty:

Yesterday in relation to Hometrack etc:

Rightmove Index March 2009:

Both the BOE and CML have said "the green shoots have no roots", everyone knows the market is not sustainable unless property values lose some of the 147% they increased since 1999 there is £200bn of funding gone leaving lenders reliant on dwindling deposits.

And today in relation to the Land Registry figures not even a dead cat bounce:

First property prices have to fall, sellers will start to get this buy maybe not until the end of the year. NOTHING that I am tracking is selling and I can't have chosen the only properties in Dorset that nobody wants. (Price range £200000 - £250000). You see I think, swayed by bulls like yourself, most sellers read PROPERTY PRICES GOING UP and they think the crash is over and prices will rise from 2007 levels. They fail to read the bit that says property is selling at 30% from peak and that should more properties come on the market with the increased approvals THIS WILL PUSH PRICES DOWN FURTHER. Well at least that is what Nationwide said .

Talking of strange little men...........hello Sybil bear of little brain.

[Rinoa]

Currently we have a lot of property on the market still at 2007 values, it would seem the ones that are selling are selling 25 - 30% below the peak,

There is no index anywhere that agrees with you.

Edited June 2, 2009 by Rinoa

[Sybil13]

Indeed, the place is full of them. Delusional people with messiah complexes, running around posting on websites everywhere, proclaiming the evils of global finance and the tyranny of "debt slavery". In other words, slackers that can't make a proper living and cant afford a house. Very sad indeed.

Do you know what I love about this perspective is that bankers , politicians etc got off their arses and DID SOMETHING but what they did, has that been more useful than just "being a slacker that can't make a property living and can't afford a house"? What is the difference between a "slacker" and someone who flips property and makes millions courtesy of the tax payer?

"Delusional people with messiah complexes" are they not the people that ran the banks and government gambling the future of our country for short term profit?

Personally I wish they had all stayed at home on the dole if bankrupting the country is what they were paid to do.

[sbn]

Do you know what I love about this perspective is that bankers , politicians etc got off their arses and DID SOMETHING but what they did, has that been more useful than just "being a slacker that can't make a property living and can't afford a house"? What is the difference between a "slacker" and someone who flips property and makes millions courtesy of the tax payer?

"Delusional people with messiah complexes" are they not the people that ran the banks and government gambling the future of our country for short term profit?

Personally I wish they had all stayed at home on the dole if bankrupting the country is what they were paid to do.

Don't ruin the bull circlejerk!

[Bloo Loo]

Do you know what I love about this perspective is that bankers , politicians etc got off their arses and DID SOMETHING but what they did, has that been more useful than just "being a slacker that can't make a property living and can't afford a house"? What is the difference between a "slacker" and someone who flips property and makes millions courtesy of the tax payer?

"Delusional people with messiah complexes" are they not the people that ran the banks and government gambling the future of our country for short term profit?

Personally I wish they had all stayed at home on the dole if bankrupting the country is what they were paid to do.

Hamish, global finance has collapsed, they FEAR deflation,, deflation in asset prices which destroys bankers balance sheets.

the process is nowhere near finished.

GM is not the last zombie firm that will fail.

this cleanout is going to be the mother of cleanouts.

Many people could buy a house but choose not to. Why do you attack them? what about them do you fear? Is it their independence, Is it their difference with you? are you a property racist?....I think you are.

[Sybil13]

There is no index anywhere that agrees with you.

Rinoa / Sibly / McTavish I LOVE YOU ALL .........you can't get to me , I know what is good for the country, I know that what has been allowed to happen because of BULLISH VI's was not sustainable or good in the long run for anyone. That you feel no shame in the FACT that it was attitudes like yours that has left the country bankrupt and the UK population paying for the mess until 2032 and beyond............well to be honest ...it is is simply confirmation of your self righteous self centred egoic ME ME ME attitudes. But I know that it takes all sorts to make a world, and some take longer to grow to maturity than others so I continue to hope that eventually the truth will out and what has true value and what is sustainable and of benefit to the many will eventually come to the fore .

It is to be hoped that so many people will have been burned during this property bubble that new values will be found, I see it happening with the whole salary and expenses issues.

Meanwhile I send you all lots of love and trust that eventually you too will see you way beyond you somewhat primitive and selfish egoic perspectives.

[sbn]

+1

Osborne - you're very new here - might I suggest you search through some old threads and find out how many people here are "Slackers" who cant afford a house. - there are quite a few polls if its hard figures you are after. You might be surprised.

Good luck though - the search facility is shitey beyond belief - I cant even find the Anthea thread ???

Edited June 2, 2009 by sbn

[HAMISH_MCTAVISH]

Hamish, you know we're not all that bad, some of us just like a debate and happen to have different views to you (in fact, you and I established the other day that we're not really far apart on our views of this particular crash, although we do differ significantly on what will happen in the long term. I bet you'll find the same with a lot of posters.

Oh, I know full well you're not all that bad. There are many posters here like yourself who I quite enjoy a bit of civilised debate with.

But it has to be said the majority jump straight in with the ad hominems, or make you read through a page of cut and paste tripe with every single post they make, just to get to one line of original argument, or confuse objectivity re prices with morality re prices, or..... well, you get the idea. For them I have no patience. Also for the genuine slackers, of which many reside round here, I have no patience. STR's I quite like. Pure unbridled capitalism, and property speculation at it's finest. Doesn't make them morally any different to BTL, but I quite like BTL-ers too.

You're a bear in disguise, really ;]

Ha. I have no time for idiots like Sibley, but that doesn't in any way make me a bear in disguise.

[Sybil13]

Osborne - you're very new here - might I suggest you search through some old threads and find out how many people here are "Slackers" who cant afford a house. - there are quite a few polls if its hard figures you are after. You might be surprised.

Good luck though - the search facility is shitey beyond belief - I cant even find the Anthea thread ???

Anthea loses her BTL empire

[Gideon Gono]

Osborne - you're very new here - might I suggest you search through some old threads and find out how many people here are "Slackers" who cant afford a house. - there are quite a few polls if its hard figures you are after. You might be surprised.

Good luck though - the search facility is shitey beyond belief - I cant even find the Anthea thread ???

Ill have a hunt around. Cheers.