What are we all doing Bloo ? It all seemed so clear earlier this year, even during the bullish / green shoot summer it still seemed clear. I know that what seemed so clear then is still relevant, things such as:
1. historical loan to incomes (no matter what the bulls say about "affordability" criteria you and I know that there were reasons people needed 125% LTV, that 40% of all loans at peak were high risk, that so many took interest only mortgages etc etc).
2. the need for FTB's
3. loss of RMBS , which was responsible for 90% of mortgage growth between 2005 - 2007
4. Interest rages having only one way to go
5. Previous bubbles have seen property go up 50% and fall 24%. This bubble property went up 200% !
etc etc...
Yet despite logic informing us that the market cannot continue to rise, and Nationwide perpetually informing us that house price increase IS NOT SUSTAINABLE........the madness continues , and HousePriceCrash has become quite a depressing place to be.
Feel we have all been on a journey this year....sharing time and space together....but hard to see as the year draws to a close .....what next? Seems there will be fewer and fewer properties coming on the market, Rightmove say that people tend to wait until after elections to see what will happen. Fewer properties seems to equal higher house prices, rising indices which give way to more bullish ramping and even more people racing out to buy before property rises even higher.
We all know that this is not sustainable.....yet nothing seems to be going to shift those property prices .......and house price crash seems to be turning into overvalued property price stagnation ...or...as in the cases I have posted this week....HOUSE PRICE INCREASE .....even if those increases are a joke....they DO feed into sentiment. When people see house prices going up......they think "NO OFFERS PLEASE" even if it doesn't sell.