Wonga Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 (edited) yep. booked me a ringside seat. Dear Old Man, Has this weeks cataclysmic crash been called off now, I wasn't sure where we were on your forecasts? Another £1,250 banked today from trading Oil Stocks old man. That's £2,250 since your third weekly stock market crash prediction on Monday, with probably another £1,000 tomorrow..... Oil is rising. I was right on the money, if you remember, but probably not. I can't wait for your next prediction on this, you're making me a fortune I may have a punt on a chunk of metal (Gold?) for a laugh, but only when the price recedes to $750/oz. Just about to have a Gin & Tonic with ice and lemon actually; looking out at the sun sinking over the Yorkshire Dales. Thinking of you always. Best wishes from your bestest mate. Wonga. Edited April 2, 2009 by Wonga Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Sparrow Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 In 2005 Mrs Slumpmonkey and I started looking for a house in Coventry. Typical three bed terrace houses in crappy areas cost £125,000. We had a mortgage in principle - it was a three times combined salary one hundred per cent mortgage from Novern Crock. We found a house we wanted and nearly exchanged but pulled out when we learnt that the vendor had not disclosed that she did not have planning permisson for the extention. We carried on looking for other houses but then I became suspicious that a three bed house should not be "worth" six times my income and I came upon this site. I became convinced that there had to be a HPC and I was not going to play the silly game of "getting on the housing ladder." I convinced Mrs Slumpmonkey to wait for the crash. She was sceptical at first but she stood by me when all our friends were jumping on the "housing ladder" in 2006 and 2007 with massive mortgages. We went to their house warmings and were constantly asked "when are you going to stop paying dead money" and other cliches - but we held firm. Then in October 2007 Northern Rock collapsed and house prices started to dive. I was so happy and I felt vindicated. I was sure that the denial period would only be brief and I convinced the missus to hold out to Summer 2009 - 18 months after the first declines started. However, I did not expect that the denial period would last so long and I never really expected that McStalin would bankrupt the country in order to stop his pyramid scam from collapsing. 18 months on and vendors are still asking £125,000 for crappy three bed terraces and McStalin has thrown everything but the kitchen sinks at his ponzi scheme to get re-elected. Furthermore, the media and the brain-washed masses are still massively in denial and it is obvious that the elite do not want people to buy sensible priced houses anytime soon. IMO, Brown has everted a massive crash and he has opted for a long drawn out crash over a decade. The trouble is - I haven't got a decade to wait! It is with regret that I will have to deal with slimy EA's and greedy vendors in the Summer and we will have to buy. We have a twenty five percent deposit on a £120,000 house and we fully expect to lose it over the next few years - but we have no choice (we can't put are lives on hold forever!) I feel as if the last four years of my life have been wasted and I should have jumped on the ponzi scheme when I had the chance! THIS PROPERTY OBSSESSED COUNTRY STINKS! Coventry!!??! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slumpmonkey Returns Posted April 2, 2009 Author Share Posted April 2, 2009 Snap out of it Slumpers!The market has always behaved this way on its downward trajectory. It goes down then there is a moment of light quickly followed by more dark clouds. Whats more, as the slump continues, there will be a wider and wider selection of houses to choose from, one that will suit you. You may not be able to wait until the market bottoms but at least wait until much more stuff finds its way into the market - then at least you may have over paid but you will be getting something you want. Do not be fooled by this moment of 'light'. I'm not fooled by what is going on - I just can't believe how drawn out this denial period is. The Daily Express will no doubt run another "House Prices are Soaring Again" story tomorrow and the deluded sheeple will lap it up. The VI's are too powerful in this country and the "Englishman's home is is castle" and "you must own your own home/rentings for losers" ethos is so engrained in this country that I fear we are fighting a losing battle. I'm starting to think that we will never get to the capitulation stage and it will just be ten years of denial! Plus, I can't wait forever. I'm just so pissed off that I'm going to have to pay the same price in 2009 as I would have done in 2005. I'm finding it hard to keep the faith guys. I may have to skulk off again (as I did in 2007 when the boom looked like it would never end) and come back as SlumpmonkeyIII in a few months time. I'm losing the faith! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 You should get at least 10% off what your friends have paid for their houses, be thankful for that at least and buy somewhere bigger enough for a baby or two because i doubt you'll be moving for a while. Why? He's had to pay rent for 4 years in the meantime, assuming a rental yield of 5% on 125K thats £6250 per year, times four years = £25,000 wasted on rent in the meantime. If he gets a 10% discount, thats £12,500 for a net loss to date of £12,500. Perhaps minus a grand or two for interest on the deposit he's been building. Now add into that the mortgage rate differences. As a FTB 4 years ago he could have got a lifetime tracker at less than BOEBR plus 1%. Now he'd be lucky to get a tracker of better than BOEBR plus 4%, even with a 20K deposit. Guaranteeing ANOTHER loss of tens of thousands in additional interest costs over the lifetime of the loan. Just another tragic situation where someone found HPC, gambled with their future, and lost badly I'm afraid. And it's becoming more common by the day as people realise that many, many, many areas are falling by far less than the national averages, and often nowhere near enough to compensate for the additional rental costs and higher retail interest rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlondon Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 OMG open your eyes to Coventry.......check rightmove a 3 bed starts at around £60k. Even around Walsgrave which isn't too bad some houses are down 15-25%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 You've increased your deposit from nothing to 25%, along with at least 10% off asking price you can get, it sounds like you've done pretty well so far! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 You've increased your deposit from nothing to 25%, along with at least 10% off asking price you can get, it sounds like you've done pretty well so far! Until you factor in the four years of rental costs, and 3-4% higher interest rates....... Then it turns into a loss of tens of thousands by waiting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drrayjo Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 Until you factor in the four years of rental costs, and 3-4% higher interest rates....... Then it turns into a loss of tens of thousands by waiting. I'm up £40K or more by waiting and saving (yes including rent) and unless prices go up ( ) I'll be up a bedroom AND a better area even if I buy now. And this Cambridge! You really shouldn't taunt the very few who at least perceive to have lost out. It's not nice. We can't all smugly preen our feathers in our little castle like some sort of cyber Hyacinth Bucket. Neither would we want to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futurepaul Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 Coventry Bees is the good thing in Cov (Speedway to those who don't know) There are half decent houses in Leamington for 150K (two sold next to the beverly hills estate in feb for 154k and 144k) less crime and 'safest shopping in the midlands' than Cov easyish commute to Brum, Cov, OXford or London. Leamington is not immune from the crash but it has commute to most places, tourism and industry and it's not Cov. Sorry if your Cov through and through but its not for me Good luck with a purchase where ever you go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 Until you factor in the four years of rental costs, and 3-4% higher interest rates....... Then it turns into a loss of tens of thousands by waiting. According to Nationwide the average house has dropped from £185k to £150k The person who bought at £185k is now paying an average cost of servicing the mortgage (interest only) of £848 per month. Compared with the person who has waited until now: Being generous, is paying rent of £800 pm for what is now a £150k house. Person 1 out of pocket 35k in equity, a couple of £k on the stamp duty, has fixed his own boiler and continues to pay £848 per month. Person 2 has saved £50 a week for the past 2 years, will pay no stamp duty, and his mortgage will only be £690 How is person 2 tens of thousands of pounds worse off?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomadd Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 (edited) Until you factor in the four years of rental costs, and 3-4% higher interest rates....... Then it turns into a loss of tens of thousands by waiting. My rent last year (3 bed semi, North London): £7.8k. Average fall in prices round here last year (3 bed semi) £50k-70k. Now, you do the math. EDIT: Interest on savings last year, £15k, after tax. Good job I didn't waste them on housing! Nomadd Edited April 2, 2009 by Nomadd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 The Great Depression after this bull trap is going to be awesome. I find it interesting. It's an assumed bottom. Who was about in the 1930's ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 According to Nationwide the average house has dropped from £185k to £150kThe person who bought at £185k is now paying an average cost of servicing the mortgage (interest only) of £848 per month. Compared with the person who has waited until now: Being generous, is paying rent of £800 pm for what is now a £150k house. Person 1 out of pocket 35k in equity, a couple of £k on the stamp duty, has fixed his own boiler and continues to pay £848 per month. Person 2 has saved £50 a week for the past 2 years, will pay no stamp duty, and his mortgage will only be £690 How is person 2 tens of thousands of pounds worse off?? Catch up at the back there, we're referring to people like the OP who can barely get 10% off a 125K house. I'd be prepared to bet theres lots of areas where the falls do not cover the cost of rent for 4 years plus the additional expenses through the inability to get a good rate these days. Some areas will of course, but many will not. Giving examples of areas that will, in no way changes the fact that many areas will not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold J Renter Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 Catch up at the back there, we're referring to people like the OP who can barely get 10% off a 125K house.I'd be prepared to bet theres lots of areas where the falls do not cover the cost of rent for 4 years plus the additional expenses through the inability to get a good rate these days. Some areas will of course, but many will not. Giving examples of areas that will, in no way changes the fact that many areas will not. It is clear to anyone with an ounce of intelligence that any meaningful comparison would have have to take account of the 4 years worth of interest paid by the owner-occupier. Then again, looking at your sig, it would appear that you don't let little details like that bother you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D179 Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 It is clear to anyone with an ounce of intelligence that any meaningful comparison would have have to take account of the 4 years worth of interest paid by the owner-occupier.Then again, looking at your sig, it would appear that you don't let little details like that bother you. Yeah I would guess over a four year period an pwner occ will only have repaid in captial about 6-12k?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 (edited) Dear Old Man,Has this weeks cataclysmic crash been called off now, I wasn't sure where we were on your forecasts? Another £1,250 banked today from trading Oil Stocks old man. That's £2,250 since your third weekly stock market crash prediction on Monday, with probably another £1,000 tomorrow..... Oil is rising. I was right on the money, if you remember, but probably not. I can't wait for your next prediction on this, you're making me a fortune I may have a punt on a chunk of metal (Gold?) for a laugh, but only when the price recedes to $750/oz. Just about to have a Gin & Tonic with ice and lemon actually; looking out at the sun sinking over the Yorkshire Dales. Thinking of you always. Best wishes from your bestest mate. Wonga. I can take it. fair comments btw. Also Wonga, my apologies if I have got you all wrong & you are a squaddie as you say. Perhaps I was a bit offish with you. edited - pick a number Edited April 2, 2009 by grumpy-old-man-returns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonga Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 I can take it. fair comments btw. Also Wonga, my apologies if I have got you all wrong & you are a squaddie as you say. Perhaps I was a bit offish with you. I was. RAF. But no problem. Have a great evening. I agree that house prices are going down big time for the next 2-3 years I just don't agree on a complete stock market crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 I was. RAF. But no problem. Have a great evening.I agree that house prices are going down big time for the next 2-3 years I just don't agree on a complete stock market crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 It is clear to anyone with an ounce of intelligence that any meaningful comparison would have have to take account of the 4 years worth of interest paid by the owner-occupier.Then again, looking at your sig, it would appear that you don't let little details like that bother you. *yawn* It takes 25 years to pay off a repayment mortgage. Putting aside for a moment that in many places a repayment mortgage is less than rent..... Every year spent renting is a straight addition to lifetime housing costs. It only pays off if the falls in price minus any increased costs through an increase in available interest rates, are greater than the rent plus the cost of interest on the price differential. But clearly you don't let little details like that bother you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 (edited) Catch up at the back there, we're referring to people like the OP who can barely get 10% off a 125K house. Ok, we can try the sums again: Case 1 This is now £120k, so say £125 at peak. Mortgage repayments would have been £570 pm interest only, plus he would have lost 5k equity. Case 2 Renting this much nicer property would have cost £500 pm, saving £70 per week by not renting from the bank and also saving £5k of lost equity. He still did ok as far as I can tell. Edit: SPG Edited April 2, 2009 by libspero Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keano Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 Slumpmonkey, I understand your frustration. Looking at some of the prices in Coventry are ridiculous. Depends which areas you are looking at. There are some reasonably priced houses there, just depends on what area you want to live in. My gut feeling is that HPC hasn't really happened here yet but there will come a time when it will. I'm going to hold on till spring next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slumpmonkey Returns Posted April 2, 2009 Author Share Posted April 2, 2009 Catch up at the back there, we're referring to people like the OP who can barely get 10% off a 125K house.I'd be prepared to bet theres lots of areas where the falls do not cover the cost of rent for 4 years plus the additional expenses through the inability to get a good rate these days. Some areas will of course, but many will not. Giving examples of areas that will, in no way changes the fact that many areas will not. Oh, my god - I've got to deal with people like you in a few months time! Maybe I will try and convince the missus to hold off for a bit longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 Oh, my god - I've got to deal with people like you in a few months time! Maybe I will try and convince the missus to hold off for a bit longer. If you can cope with the emotional impact of watching the hard-earned savings you've ploughed into housing disappear and believe your relationship can survive the resentment you will increasingly feel towards your partner for persuading you to buy against your better judgment then buy. If not, wait; continue to enjoy the sight of housing falling again as the year passes; and treat the missus to a nice holiday instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 Ok, we can try the sums again:He still did ok as far as I can tell. Ummm, he said he would have bought 4 years ago? So he's delayed purchase for 4 years? Meaning he has now added 4 years of rental to his lifetime housing costs. Instead of paying his mortgage for 4 years, and being 4 years ahead, he has now payed someone elses mortgage for 4 years instead. If we assume your figure of £500 per week, thats 6K per year, or 24K for 4 years. PLUS the best rate he will get today with a 20K deposit is at least 3% or 4% higher than the rate he would have got then, so add another few tens of thousands in additional interest payments over the lifetime of the loan/ Jeez, if you call that "doing OK" I'm glad you're not my financial advisor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 (edited) Ummm, he said he would have bought 4 years ago?So he's delayed purchase for 4 years? Meaning he has now added 4 years of rental to his lifetime housing costs. Instead of paying his mortgage for 4 years, and being 4 years ahead, he has now payed someone elses mortgage for 4 years instead. If we assume your figure of £500 per week, thats 6K per year, or 24K for 4 years. PLUS the best rate he will get today with a 20K deposit is at least 3% or 4% higher than the rate he would have got then, so add another few tens of thousands in additional interest payments over the lifetime of the loan/ Jeez, if you call that "doing OK" I'm glad you're not my financial advisor. Knobhead. Update your sig. Aberdeen average house price, ROS data, Feb 2007 £151,635 Aberdeen average house price, ROS data, Jan 2009 £153,379 And you've missed out the cost of an I/O mortgage. And what about maintenance? Probably overestimated the cost of renting as well. Edited April 2, 2009 by barry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.