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Everything posted by D179

  1. In respect of wage inflation, personally i think it has started to happen recently. in respect of previous bubbles vs this one, well you could argue that is has burt but not as severe as we all beleived it would. As for propping up, I see holding IR as long as possible is doing the trick. I agree they will go up and I agree prices will come down. I just do not agree with half the people on here who beleive they will wake up tomorrow and find all asking prices in their area have dropped by 20,30 or 40% thats all! Nobody thought that a soft landing was possible, nor did I, but three years on and that is what has happened.
  2. And we can all pull linked storys to support our view. My point being is that no matter how much things should change, and in certain ares they are, we must also keep our eyes open to the reailty of the situation and not just the wishful thinking side or by pinpointing one point in history as the beacon of things to come. It may do but the longer this plays out I cannot be the only person thinking that it may not! It just seems obvious now that they will do anything to support the mess created.
  3. but there has been some correction both nominal and real, as before. the one major thing this time is not just UK policy but worldwode policy due to increased globalisation, somehting that did not happen in the 1990's. I do think prices will decrease slightly but inflation is doing the real work. It is unfair those with debt up to the eyeballs have been bailed out, but maybe the rest of us should have been braver and had a more carefree attitude years ago! An example of this is that over the priod I was renting, nearly three years just prior to crash up to March of this year, a friend of mine managed to sell a place he purchased pre-cras as a rennovation, hold on ti it, clear £40k profit. He also is just finishing a project of a place where he will clear £200k. All that time I was bleating but how the wheels would come off, maybe he should sit tight etc, and now I look a right d**k! I just think waiting for asking prices to come crashing down is a dangerous game, the best of both worls can be had by offering on places at a price that is reasonable. Lets face it, many on here now with hindsight would have brought a few years ago when the crash actually happened.
  4. I have said before, but how can we predict what will happen by looking back at only one snapshot in the past? is it sensible to look at the 1990's and compare what happened then and say well thats the norm it will happen again. Of course not, what makes the 90's crash 'the norm'. There are so many variables to consider that it is just to simple a view to compare. Also the whole thing on lending multiples etc is a dead end, again what makes historic lending mulitples the norm? At best you can make an informed judgement on what you think based on historic data, but that is different to being correct on the outcome. This has been proved by the propping of the market thus far. it is so obvious now that inflation has been chosen, we just are not going to see the massive falls that should have happened with such low IR. In my humble opinion.
  5. For that money it will generally be a one bed, a two at a push. Crawley is actually ok has good transport links easy into london. Prices are relatively low in comparrison to some of the other areas you mention. there good bits and bad bits. it has its problems but to be honest they are often over-hyped. Haywards heath is nicer but will be a little mor etricky to get what you want.
  6. My prediction is another 5%, but some areas will hold up better than others. transactions will fall while interest rates remain low, cash rich will by good properties, rubbish will sell low and the whole system grinds to a halt. If a crash comes I guess it could be triggered by wider problems in Europe and credit squeeze then a majory may find it difficult to get a mortgage. My view is that waiting for lower asking prices is the mistake, offering and bargaining on houses as a slow crash pays out may give the best result?
  7. This development is not indicative of the woder Horsham market. It has seen some flls recently, i was looking at places there early in the year and prices have slipped since then but it depends on which part you are looking at. I have noticed some of the larger exec houses are slipping too, but IMO the mid level well finished period or decent semis may hold up up slightly better. Nice place Horsham with countryside on your doorstep.
  8. Nice one, congrats. i jumped in and have been in the house a month, rear extension walls up but living in chaos with dust etc.... I do feel better in one way knowing I made a decision and we love where we are (a very pretty village) on the other hand I know as prices fall the devil in me will be p*ssed off. One thing I would say is once the decision has been made then you seem to worry about it all less in funny sort of way. We paid about 10% off peak, athough at peak the house was not in great condition. Attached neighbours house who is in good condition and a larger extension but no off rd parking like ours recently went for 50-60k more than we paid. We are lucky that the house is a nice size period semi, with 180-200 ft garden (with workshop), its not a place we would have to move from...providing we can afford to stay Good luck with your move.
  9. Yeah I do agree with comments re costs. But the point I was making is that my budget will do the things that need to be done and it will be a nice place, decent size lots of garden, period house. But my mate was happy to try and convince me to overstretch and try and get the extra money to extend larger, loft conversion etc "no mater what". Considering it is a 3 bed house with us two and no kids (yet), I was astounded that the beleive that you should plough everything you have (or dont have) into the house to make it 'perfect' still exisits.
  10. To be honest , it doesn't end when you buy a house. Just moved in and was telling my mate about what I was gonna do to the place, about 20k's worth. He then was telling me what I should do extend this, extend that prob another 35k on top and that I should try and get the money no matter how.
  11. Mate of mine has 12 of them, and they are Fitted out very nicely mainly for airport staff. Does very well high occupancy etc. He never really understood normal btl model although does say any more than a couple of HMO ' turns it in to a full time job and not for the faint hearted.
  12. D179

    I Have Exchanged

    It is a house to stay in, 1900 built semi, rural village locattion (sought after area), large garden, needs a little work having a small extension immediately to create a bit of a kitchen diner., purchased at 10% below peak (couldnt get any more off). I hope to be in the house for at least 5 years or maybe forever, it has growing space.
  13. ok, after 5-6 weeks we have exchanged contracts, been relatively pain free. I will be looking in on HPC as I find the whole thing interesting not just HPC but general into on many matters. Also this time next year I will do an update on how much my purchase has panned out, cost me or not cost me at that time, how much Ive won, lost or cried!. it may provide intesting feedback and it will be honest, honest! Good luck to those looking to buy, thinking about buying be it now in 1 year 2 years or 5 years.
  14. I have been looking and there are some good deals now , vw polo with free insurance, free services for 3 years . Fiat offering discounts plus low rate finance. We need a cheap low running cost motor.
  15. I have been looking and there are some good deals now , vw polo with free insurance, free services for 3 years . Fiat offering discounts plus low rate finance. We need a cheap low running cost motor.
  16. Good news, hopefully leading to people being able to afford to buy without taking some stupid government shared sheme. etc.... One thing though, when i have before mentioned that area drop at different rates and to differing degrees some on here wont accept it, but does this report show this clearly?
  17. Everthing is a gamble . Some on here will look back and will have purchased at the right time , right price, right mortgage. Some will have waited too long always waiting for the best deal. The right time could be in 6 months, two years....or it could be now.... Nothing is certain.
  18. Well I should hopefully exchange and complete in the next few weeks. Have i changed my mind...no I always was in the neither camp but definatey on the bearish side. My views, well houses are still overpriced but it seems like a long drawn out process, hence why i have jumped back in. i expect the value of my property to go down in the medium term but to be honest I alrady feel better as I am not having to sit on the fence. I also have always had the belief that falls vary depending on area, and I have always beleived that everyones view on the 'average' house can lead people to confuse what they should expect and what is reality. I have done ok by going STR, yes I have a larger deposit, secured a house I couldnt have afforded before and also secured a mortgage at a lower interest rate than I could have if I had sold and purchased at the same time. There have been benfits of renting, i.e. no finacial commitment, no bills etc. But at the same time I am a bit of a fussy git and so I have missed not being in my own decorated space, shallow I know but we are different. One other downside has been the stress of not knowing, not knowing what to buy, when to buy, what to view, what not to view, pressure that i beleive many on this site has felt or feels right now. Also i look at people I know, single income mortgagesd up to the hilt on new build flats, we are joint income (for now), decent deposit and buying a period semi in a very desirable area.... so in terms of risk I think i have already spread the risk a little compared to others I know but the reality could be a fall of 10,20,30 %....or nothing further if theor paln to inflate us out plays out. My thoughts on what others should do.... well i have always beleived that some on here think their view is absolute, definate... but this is not the case clearly and so my thoughts are that people should buy as and when they feel they have got a good enough deal that makes sense to them and also suits their own life, circumstances etc.. .
  19. The commercial market is much more complicated than this and contrary to what people beleive it has gone through the floor. Now in terms of rents, you have various situations that play out, firstly you have historic leases that span a period of recession and therefore potentialy what may have been agreed historically at an market value is no longer the case as rents on new letting have fallen. So in effect it is a little hard cheese on those on leases where the market has fallen. But lease clauses vary and the definitions of what is to be valued at rent review can be different, subsequently large companies such as those mentioned will often employ internally or externally surveyors to research and discuss rents with the landlords surveyor and if still in dispute it will go to a third party determination. It is possible that rents are high and so squeeze the business operating but also as rents fall in other areas provide the company to acquire new space at lower values. Also you have to rememeber large companies were the ones wanting to expand and take more and more space and they were the ones that agreed to lease terms often with both surveyor and solicitor input. In respect of not seeing the downside to owning freehold, there are many downsides but if you think houses are hard to shift, freehold commercial where values have collapsed can be even more so. Also in terms of small business operating from a leasehold property, when things get really tough landlords are often flexible and offer discount/concessionary rents. Also lease will often allow them to assign or sublet to other companies if they want to get out, obviously this is easier said than done. Delaps can be an issue but again most tenants can opt for a schedule of condition prior to taking a lease, this has a limiting effect on delpas claims. The downside that I havee seen is that small business opted to borrow to take on small freeholds, great when things are going well but as it has played out when those small business run in to trouble they then have a business that is stuggling and a porperty that if they vacate they need to find a tenant, again easier said than done. The commercial market was quick to stall and then crash, capital values dropped, larger incentives secured in new leases and eventually a watering down of headline rents.
  20. Mortgage is sorted, no great problems. Waiting on a couple of bits of info back from vendors solicitor re certificates etc, but i thin we are nearly there... .
  21. Well I of course would love a few mil , would be a nice amount. But as I am getting older, wife, mates, dog weekend at the coast , and coffee and cake.... These simple things definitely give me the most enjoyment., more than some of the nice hols we have had.
  22. Yes , because that is what's makes us human. As you rightly point out , the downside of humanity is the crash course we decide to take, the upside being is the way in which most will feel sympathy and some will put themselves at risk to assist. This where we are different to many other animals
  23. With more tsunami and nulesr situation , all I can day is that the japs character etc will deal with it, imagine what we would do here , one bit of snow and we panic , moan , and think our world has crumbled. We should be ashamed of ourselves
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