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Willy Weasel

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  1. As per title: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/li/2009/sep/index.htm
  2. Not sure whether this correlates to the Haliwide three months ago... Linky: http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/HPIReport091021wyd.pdf
  3. DOW has lost a couple of hundred points from its HOD. It looks as though the PDs are having to eat a lot of Treasury issuance so that might be causing it.
  4. He also reckons house prices will continue to fall and that stocks are in a 'bubble' http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a099JUOMB.H0
  5. I've been considering buying recently and thought I would ring the agent who sold my house back in 2007 to see what he thought of the current market. He's a proper old-school EA - been around for 30 years and seen it all before. When I told him I was thinking of buying his reply was "I wouldn't rush if I was you". He also told me he thought asking prices were currently ridiculous in the village where I sold with the result that absolutely nothing is shifting. He is expecting prices to fall another 15%. I think there is a genuine appreciation amongst the EAs that have been around for a while that rising asking prices is the absolute worse thing that could happen to the market right now. The cash buyers have dried up; lending criteria and availability of mortgage finance are tight; unemployment is rising; but against the backdrop of all of that, seller's price expectations have been raised. Expect turnover to almost come to a standstill in the last Q - in fact we should see turnover levels below the previous lows.
  6. This is all about the disconnect between all the 'green shoots' stories in the MSM and the reality for most people that things are still getting worse. Everything stopped dead for me last month. Thankfully, this month has started much better but I just cannot see turnover increasing sustainably for at least 12 months. The trick is to keep your costs to an absolute minimum and just try and ride it out.
  7. Follow the money. When the share price starts to fall fast then get out. As others have said, everyone visiting this forum was adequately warned about Northern Crock and the Icelandic banks.
  8. So if an anonymous poster on an internet forum tells you he has taken short positions then that will make his prediction more credible?
  9. Although I think houses are overvalued, I've never stopped looking for one or viewing ones I like. If one I like comes up at a price I can afford then I will buy. Interestingly, though, I was speaking to an EA this week about a property and when I said I was renting her response was "So why do you want to buy then?"
  10. The posturing by the world's central bankers is becoming almost laughable. They are all hell-bent on talking up other currencies whilst talking their own down. The latest is JCT who came out again today stating that the US needs to pursue a strong dollar policy and that the Euro was never intended to be a reserve currency. This is all going to end in tears as competitive devaluation could have all sorts of nasty consequences.
  11. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFofq9_za8Is From the article: A total of 937,840 homes received a default or auction notice or were repossessed by banks, a 23 percent increase from a year earlier, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said today in a report. One out of every 136 U.S. households received a filing, the highest quarterly rate in records dating to January 2005. “The problem is prime loans going into foreclosure and people being underwater and losing their jobs,” Richard Green, director of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, said in an interview. “It’s a really bad number.” Mounting foreclosures mean U.S. home prices probably will resume falling, analysts from Amherst Securities Group LP in New York said Sept. 23. A “shadow inventory” of 7 million properties are in the foreclosure process or likely to be seized, up from 1.27 million in 2005, they said. The pace of prime and so-called alt-A loan defaults is accelerating as subprime defaults slow, Standard & Poor’s analysts led by Diane Westerback said yesterday in a report. Prime loans are those made to borrowers with the best credit records while alt-A loans are considered riskier because they were often granted without documenting the borrower’s income.
  12. Auctioneers are setting guide prices stupidly low at the moment - 20%-30% below comparable house on the open market. If you set the bar low enough you can always clear it by a wide margin.
  13. I think the point is that the only thing QE can achieve is to hold down the cost of Government (and therefore all other) debt. Without QE the yield on gilts would be much higher and that, in turn, would result in higher market IRs for the rest of us. What QE isn't achieving is more money in the system for lending for individuals and businesses and it is that fact that will stop house prices continuing to rise.
  14. *PREDICTION ALERT* There will be a massive liquidity drain by the Fed and the market will crash - this month.
  15. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDndZS_o6Stc From the article: “The U.K. market may have something like another 20 percent-odd to fall” in house prices, he said. “Perhaps things have fundamentally changed so that overdoes it a bit, and maybe it’s 15 percent. But it looks to us as though the market is going to edge a fair bit lower still.” “I look at the same valuation measures which I’ve looked at for years and caused me to identify a problem early on in the housing market, and they still look absolutely horrific,” Bootle said. “The housing market in the U.K., unlike in the U.S., still looks very expensive. It looks expensive in relation to earnings.”
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