This Mini Spring Bounce Is It Begining To Fall Apart ....

[darwin]

Blimey what's your middle name happy?

It's not all doom and gloom.

Once Lloyd's start mortgage lending everything will be on the up.

I'd like to personally invite you to my house party. I want to tell you how much my place went up and show you my new 4 x 4.

Sibley, take it easy, you are malfunctioning!!! You know you shouldn't go getting your parts all overheated like that. Too much fun with the new 4x4, I should imagine. Did you buy anything else in the ToyRUs sale? Next you'll be getting a radio controlled model plane and telling us you've just bought a LearJet!

Now come on, "personally inviting" someone to your houseparty?! I mean really, as if there is any other way of inviting somebody! You EAdroids just don't understand protocol do you, you never have and you never will. You're like, this close to a complete breakdown..."oh, oh, my circuits are melting... my circuits are melting"...

[Steamerpoint]

Being fairly new to reading blogs on this website, although I have been reading the news via here for a long time, I am surprised at how close in content postings are, but I am happy to keep saying the same things to different people. The SPRING BOUNCE WAS SPIN pure spin, a sense "well here's a new year and we all thought it would pick up this year etc etc" coupled with a bit of panic (almost went there myself), with THE ROCK IS BACK and the government is going to force the lenders to lend etc....(but I did the reading around all of this and realised it WAS spin spin spin...) So here we were on the verge of a new year , and the government NEED people to believe the market will pick up even though they KNOW it won't but they NEED someone to be buying otherwise the figures would LOOK EVEN WORSE and they NEED the country to feel OK and be looking forward....so SPIN SPIN SPIN.....

BUT THE PAST FEW WEEKS THE TRUTH HAS FINALLY BEEN FILTERING INTO MAINSTREAM. The FSA have confirmed the mortgage market WILL be regulated almost certainly on loan to income ratios, and there have been discussions regarding loan to income in the press etc., and people ARE beginning to realise that at 3.25 loan to income ratios (and THIS IS THE LEVEL LENDING WILL RETURN TO NO DOUBT ABOUT IT the UK cannot afford to support the inflated housing bubble or to allow house prices to surge ever again as they did), house prices are going to have to fall 40% or more (it is why lenders are unhappy to lend more than 60% they know prices are going to fall). The ROCK IS BACK but lending at 3.5 so work it out with a 90% mortgage on a property that is about to lose 40% of its value, how good a deal is this latest government led initiative? GOOD JOB NO FIRST TIME BUYERS COULD AFFORD CURRENTLY TO TAKE UP A 90% MORTGAGE at 3.5 loan to income, the government KNOW that any buyer would be immediately in negative equity.

So the first two months of 2009 buoyed up by THE NEW YEAR and thoughts of spring and the aftermath of LETS BUY PROPERTY NOW WITH ALL OUR SPARE CASH ITS A GOOD TIME TO INVEST IN THE PROPERTY MARKET BECAUSE WE ARE BEING TOLD ITS BOTTOMING OUT AND WHAT ELSE CAN WE DO WITH ALL OUR SPARE CASH etc etc....there were a few twitches in the corpse but NOBODY AND I MEAN NOBODY really believed or BELIEVE the market is going to RECOVER in the sense of returning to 2007.

RECOVERY from here on means helping the UK come to terms with the FACT that what has happened the past decade should never have been allowed to happen, the FSA should have stepped in sooner fixing loan to income ratios etc.. RECOVERY now means going back to how things were prior to the madness. RECOVERY means facing the consequences of the massive irresponsible lending putting 5 million + into negative equity and seeing millions unable to pay their mortgages. (someone on the forum yesterday said the whole point of 3.25 and one income is that if interest rates go up to 8% or more most people can't afford to pay their mortgage. ).

SO NO GREEN SHOOTS NOT NOW NOT EVER NOT IN THE WAY MOST SELLERS WOULD LIKE TO BELIEVE THE MARKET IS GOING....AS I SAID SEVERAL TIMES TODAY - ITS TIME FOR THE PRESS TO START SAYING "NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO SELL BECAUSE PRICES ARE FALLING AND FALLING FAST SO GET WHAT YOU CAN WHILST YOU CAN BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT GOING TO GO BACK UP FOR A VERY LONG TIME AS THEY WILL NOW ONLY GO UP IN LINE WITH WAGES." (It can't be any other way with loan to income ratios regulated, can there be ANY doubt in ANYONE'S mind that the UK can not afford to continue lending as it has? We had to borrow 750 billion from overseas to finance the 2007 mortgage market, it is going to take the UK 30 years to pay back the trillions being pumped in to shore up the banks . I simply cannot understand how ANYONE can believe that we could return to the madness, I guess these things take time to sink in, but I do believe the FACTS are finally sinking in

Andi the board man from Agent Signs Ltd in Peterborough told me that he changed 148 boards to sold last week! Call him if you don't believe me.

3 of them belonged to us. 3-sales by the 6th is not a bad start. They also changed 4 of my boards to "Now Let", so I'm happy too!

It's too early to call now anyway. The Spring bounce normally takes place after easter and then dies when the Summer holidays kick in around the start of July. Anything going on right now is not part of this Spring bounce cycle!

Speaking to my colleague on Saturday (Who works of the Sales side), he did say that Saturday was a bit quieter than the weekend before, so maybe things have slowed down slightly, but I'll find out tomorrow at work.

When I worked in sales during the mid 1990's (The so called Trough) you often had good months followed by bad months again. Often the weather would play a big part in activity. It would also be down to the right properties at the right prices.

If a vendor has agreed to price the property competetively, it could sell quickly, but when this has gone, the agent only has the overpriced properties left that no one wants!

It's too early to say things have slowed and it's too early for the bulls to get carried away. If by May, little has happened, it is safe to say it won't!

[BXLONDONMAN]

Good for you. I personally like to read Gibley's denial posts, I get a kick out of seeing just how stupid someone can be

[/qu

he must love to be the odd one out these days....

[jocohen]

Andi the board man from Agent Signs Ltd in Peterborough told me that he changed 148 boards to sold last week! Call him if you don't believe me.

3 of them belonged to us. 3-sales by the 6th is not a bad start. They also changed 4 of my boards to "Now Let", so I'm happy too!

It's too early to call now anyway. The Spring bounce normally takes place after easter and then dies when the Summer holidays kick in around the start of July. Anything going on right now is not part of this Spring bounce cycle!

Speaking to my colleague on Saturday (Who works of the Sales side), he did say that Saturday was a bit quieter than the weekend before, so maybe things have slowed down slightly, but I'll find out tomorrow at work.

When I worked in sales during the mid 1990's (The so called Trough) you often had good months followed by bad months again. Often the weather would play a big part in activity. It would also be down to the right properties at the right prices.

If a vendor has agreed to price the property competetively, it could sell quickly, but when this has gone, the agent only has the overpriced properties left that no one wants!

It's too early to say things have slowed and it's too early for the bulls to get carried away. If by May, little has happened, it is safe to say it won't!

it is amazing that so many people think by talking up the market things will return to how they were by magic.

I would love to see a return to blind optimism but i am in the real economy and unemployment is on the increase and uncertainty is still there for the next few years yet.

I like the fact you're trying to talk things up but your attitude is what caused the problem, speculation was encouraged and pure unadulterated greed

[HAMISH_MCTAVISH]

Isn't it a little early to be discussing a spring bounce, when we're barely out of february?

Maaybe best to wait for spring?

[jocohen]

I think this was the optimists suggesting the world was about to go back to 'normal' no such luck i'm afraid

[rw42]

When i read sibley, i think dwain dibley. Then all becomes clear..

[Alfie Moon]

Blimey what's your middle name happy?

It's not all doom and gloom.

Once Lloyd's start mortgage lending everything will be on the up.

I'd like to personally invite you to my house party. I want to tell you how much my place went up and show you my new 4 x 4.

Oh dear Sibley .... have you not read the detail of the bailout for Lloyds? Of the money that they are obliged to lend out only £3b a year, for the next 2 years is for mortgages - i.e. a tiny drop in the ocean.

[Sybil13]

Quote " When I worked in sales during the mid 1990's (The so called Trough) you often had good months followed by bad months again. Often the weather would play a big part in activity. It would also be down to the right properties at the right prices.If a vendor has agreed to price the property competitively, it could sell quickly, but when this has gone, the agent only has the overpriced properties left that no one wants "

I WISH WHAT IS AHEAD FOR THE UK PROPERTY PRICES COULD BE PUT DOWN TO THE WEATHER!

I firmly believe we are ALL entitled to our opinion, but 'opinions' are about standing in one position and failing to see the other. Sadly the FACTS at this time speak of dark times ahead, this is not being gloomy but simply seeing that the knock on effects of the global financial disaster are effecting millions of people's lives in the UK. (Globally of course but we are talking UK property prices here so I am concentrating on the UK). We all have an obligation to LOOK to the biggest picture we can, and currently perpetuating a myth that property prices somehow are going to start climbing again and the market has bottomed out clearly is a view taken without consideration of the facts and figures. A simple maths sum of 3.25 loan to income (median and FSA have spoken of regulation on loan to incomes), will give ANYONE surely the amount property prices are going to have to fall. Or a simple maths sum of the cost to the UK of irresponsible lending and considering if this could possibly continue or ever be allowed to return given that it broke the banks.

The views expressed on this forum regarding a House Price Crash are not based on wishful thinking but FACTS that sadly, for many, spell out THAT PROPERTY PRICES ARE GOING TO HAVE TO FALL, or wages go up 40% !! This is why for decades before the madness lenders lent at 3.25 in order that the majority of people could afford their mortgage and NOT BREAK THE BANKS.

Positive thinking / attitude has a place in all of this, but the place is NOT talking up the market in the HOPE that it will make a difference, (hope was the last evil out of Pandora's box), but coming to terms with what IS happening in the market and starting to work positively with the awful repercussions for 5 million + people in negative equity. AND providing some psychological support for the majority of the home owning population who are trying to come to terms with tens of thousands of seeming losses on their property or on the property they had hoped to inherit some day. Guardian and Observer and others spoke of 40% off property prices by the end of the year, if you thought your house was worth £250000 in 2007 it makes it worth less than £160000 by the end of this year, that is a lot of loss to come to terms with. However, of those tens of thousands lodd for the vast majority of cases this is not an actual loss the mortgage is paid or the house bought over 10 years ago, is is perceived loss . However, this is a HUGE exercise in what "value" means and what is truly valuable for us all, a loss of £90000 whether it is simply a perceived loss or not takes some adjusting to which I assume gives rise to the kind of strong feelings we see on the forum.

People will feel NOBODY WILL HAVE MY HOUSE FOR 50% OFF, of course, but eventually we are ALL going to have to adjust to the FACT that none of this should have been allowed to happen. At the moment we seem to want it both ways, we want to say how irresponsible the government / the lenders / the people who took mortgages they can no longer afford etc were, whilst wanting to go back to EXACTLY how we got to where we are through irresonsible lending. The madness continues !

So can it truly be a matter of OPINION and one sided opinion at that, that it IS enormously irresponsible for the government to speak of 90% mortgages at a time when lenders have returned to responsible lending practice wanting only to lend 60% of the price of a property taking the needed property prices falls into account? Can anyone think that it is not irresponsible to say THE ROCK IS BACK offering first time buyers 90% mortgages and that this is going to change the market, without making it clear that the Rock is back offering 3.5 income which means that for a first time buyer to take up the offer on a 90% mortgage houses have to lose 50% + of their value. (This is WHY the Rock lent 125% LTV and 7x's income, because people could not afford property sensibly, and why a 1/3rd of their borrowers are already in negative equity and I can't remember the percentage that are behind in their payments but the Rock currently is getting 1 million in month in charges from people in arrears).

So SLOWLY the TRUTH will out and what is spoken about on this forum will not be considered "a point of view" but a view shared by everyone in the UK. Ultimately this is GOOD NEWS for the UK and for first time buyers and the majority of home owners who want to see their children be able to buy etc.. As I keep sayng RECOVERY means going back to how things were a few short years ago when homes were homes and building societies had savers and offered good interest and lent sensibly at rates people could hopefully afford for the 25 years they would be paying their mortgage that took into account that wives might stay at home some of the time and look after the children, or a partner might get sick etc . I can't actually believe that this is not what the vast majority of people would have preferred the past 10 years rather than the madness that saw lending levels / property prices rise to a level that broke the banks and the UK will be paying for for the next 30 years. (Irresponsible lending that led to BIG bank bonuses and investors buying up property BTL and for pension funds etc that we will now pay for for 30 years )

I am open to being helped to see that this view is completely wrong but reading the facts and figures can't see how it can be any other way, houses are going to have to lose 35% how much more than 35% they are going to have to lose with an average wage being something like £24000 and lenders lending 3.25 one income or 2.5 two whichever is the highest still seems to be up for discussion.

[PotNoodle]

The UK rental market is now flooded with owners now trying to rent there house rather than sell it at what they percieve to be a low price .

It's quite funny actually in that the type of houses we look at there owners are trying to get around £1000 a month in rent for their house , but the house itself is losing at least £5000 a month in value ....

Where do all these people live while they are renting their house out ?? ??

[SarahBell]

Tiny retirement place reduced again 115->85 - under offer

Manky very trashed terrace new on 89k - under offer

repo 104 reduced from 115 - under offer

repo 84k reduced from 100 should be sold anyday now

big old terrace 122 - seems to be sold

Thats 5 within a month within 1/4 mile of me.

And last month repo got sold for 60kish - seen them doing it up.

However in m40 there were no sales in January - according to houseprices.co.uk

(only one of the above is ol9 which had 4 sales in Jan)

So I feel like there's been a spring bounce - but only because prices have been dropping.

[HAIR BEAR CRUNCH]

Blimey what's your middle name happy?

It's not all doom and gloom.

Once Lloyd's start mortgage lending everything will be on the up.

I'd like to personally invite you to my house party. I want to tell you how much my place went up and show you my new 4 x 4.

what does troll status meanand why are you one sibley

[Imminent_plunge]

Blimey what's your middle name happy?

It's not all doom and gloom.

Once Lloyd's start mortgage lending everything will be on the up.

I'd like to personally invite you to my house party. I want to tell you how much my place went up and show you my new 4 x 4.

OK, a little anecdotal for you.

Partner works as a call centre manager in Central London.

Traditionally, they employ actors and actresses for casual telephone work and place adverts in trade magazines, usually they get a handful of replies. Unless they are particularly stupid, they get the job.

Last month, they placed an advert. The replies they got were unprecedented. Hundreds. Not just actors, highly experienced business people who have been made redundant from the City. When my partner's interviewed them and suggested that they are over-qualified for the job, they all say that they are desperate for anything and there's nothing out there. These are people that were earning over and above the mythical average Halifax salary of £36k something.

So, pent-up demand is now for £7.50 per hour call centre jobs. It's just a hunch, but I guess these people won't be looking at the new-build £300k 'lifestyle' apartments. They'll be living 2-3 to a room and learning to love baked beans. The more unfortunate will be forced, tail between legs, back to their parents.

Sibley, dream on about 2007 conditions. This is the reality. Cryogenic freezing may work, you may wake up in 2200 and find that property prices have risen

[spivT]

Isn't it a little early to be discussing a spring bounce, when we're barely out of february?

Maaybe best to wait for spring?

We're not barely out of february, we're 9 days into march.

British Summer time is now from the last Sunday in March until the last Sunday in October.

We are a matter of weeks away from summer.

technically your spring bounce has come and gone, it should more accurately have been a pre-christmas bounce.

We could still get an easter bounce and a summer bounce, but it'd be more accurate to call that a dead cat bounce.

[IMHAL]

3.2 million unemployed by mid 2010.

That should put a slight dampener on those speculators in the housing market.

Face it - the era of 'something for nothing' is over. The speculators don't have security of income - they are out of the game - they will struggle to pay their mortgages. Inflation will bite forcing many to the bread line. The middle classes will look forward to cleaning up the mess left by a decade of speculation with increased taxes. The public sector will be slashed and salaries frozen.

The new age of austerity will loom large as the dying embers of the profligate Labour government come to an end. The new realisation will be that money has to be earned - good and services will need to be paid for - probably up front and houses will become a place to live once more.

[Sybil13]

Tiny retirement place reduced again 115->85 - under offer

Manky very trashed terrace new on 89k - under offer

repo 104 reduced from 115 - under offer

repo 84k reduced from 100 should be sold anyday now

big old terrace 122 - seems to be sold

Thats 5 within a month within 1/4 mile of me.

And last month repo got sold for 60kish - seen them doing it up.

However in m40 there were no sales in January - according to houseprices.co.uk

(only one of the above is ol9 which had 4 sales in Jan)

So I feel like there's been a spring bounce - but only because prices have been dropping.

And how many of these came about because of people believing the market was bottoming and THIS WAS GOING TO BE THE BEST TIME TO BUY IN THE NEXT 25 YEARS? I have read it all but I kept on reading and reading and reading trying to get a balanced view and finally the FACTS are being reported more and more. When you hear the government and EA's etc all saying "things are picking up the market is going to start going up. We are giving 9 billion to the Rock for 90% mortgages and if lenders refuse to lend 90% mortgages we will not help them if they are in trouble or we will nationalise the banks" all said in the past months, PEOPLE TAKE FRIGHT AND JUMP in. There was an article (link on News Blog) at the weekend I think about investors from Russia and all over the globe buying up property at 60% off the asking price and EA's were saying it was REALLY GOOD NEWS for the property market! It is amazing just how short sighted people are. How can cash rich investors buying up property for a song (and they are at auctions too), be good for anyone appart from the investors? (Although to be honest I don't think it IS such a good investment as it will take decades for house prices to return to anything like the 2007 levels . A 190% increase in property prices in 10 years SHOULD have taken 40 years in line with wages, even Scottish Widows and other insurers are NOT investing in property anymore).

So the BOUNCE I would imagine are people with a load of cash that just don't know what to do with it at the moment and have read the articles I have read the past months that keep saying PROPERTY PRICES WILL BOOM AGAIN SOON, but fail to mention that the FSA will regulate the mortgage market, enough "light touch" , and loan to income ratios of 3.25 (median) will see property prices fall 40% or more and stay there for a long time, and will only go up with wage increases.

And I assume people who have to move, but I think they will START DEMANDING 25% + falls bellow 2007 prices the more they get themselves informed enough to counter any arguments by EA's that house prices are about to BOOM! The only thing that is about to BOOM as in blow up, is the illusion that a £250000 property is worthy more than £160000 or less . Even the Guardian and Observer spoke of 40% falls by the end of the year, so who would buy at any higher?

[grey shark]

A 190% increase in property prices in 10 years SHOULD have taken 40 years in line with wages, even Scottish Widows and other insurers are NOT investing in property anymore).

Scottish Widows like all the other insurers who ran 'property funds' sucked in 1,000's of investers , now SW and the others have a 6 month 'lock in' where investers can't cash in there units even if they wanted to do ....he he he ....ha ha ha

Edited March 9, 2009 by grey shark

[Godley]

I don't bother engaging with Sibley anymore, there is little point. You can't have a debate with people who are so stupid.

Ironically though I have a very good friend who is senior guy at Stratstone he was telling me on Saturday that they are well ahead of budget on sales of 4 x 4's, I was amazed!!!

[xux42]

Guardian and Observer spoke of 40% falls by the end of the year, so who would buy at any higher?

Thanks for the meaty posts - nice to have something to get your teeth into instead of the all too common short, abusive posts from certain parties of late.

Isn't the awful truth, the truth that is fuelling a rising sense of terror amongst the chatterers, is that we just don't know how much large 30s semis in Surrey and twee cottages in Devon have fallen by because the owners are sitting on their hands.

We can only imagine the panic if these sort of properties start being sold in numbers via unreserved auctions.

Personal view is that investing in property for capital gain is over, largely because legislation will soon be passed undermining it.

[Cozza]

It cannot be denied that there was a small pick up in activity in the first 2 months of this year , but in the last week or so am begining to feel that it's faltering ................................

Halifax out last week -2.3% must of done some damage to peoples and VI's mindsets .

Recession news everyday in the media .

BBA mortgage approvals last week at near rock bottom levels .

Some of the cash players that put offers in January and Febuary have there 'bargains' now , so are out of the game .

Phonend 2 EA's yesterday , they didn't sound as confidant as other EA's have been in previous weeks , trying to partly blame vendors for not dropping prices , i just got a feeling from them that last week wasn't as good as previous weeks .

Was shocked to see how much is available to rent , rent prices overall now look like 2004 levels imo .

A few new properties coming on to Rightmove but still not enough to flood the market , so stock levels still lowish imo .

WHERE ARE THE GREEN SHOOTS ????????????

I don't believe there were any green shoots.

At least two EA's in my area have been unlawfully putting up 'SOLD STC' boardings on (usually) vacant properties in an attempt to convince the neighbourhood that the housing market is holding up. It is also an attempt to price fix.

I have made a stand against this dishonest and manipulative practice by contacting the EA's in question and demanding they remove the SOLD boards within 24 hours, failing which Trading Standards will be contacted.

[Reck B]

When i read sibley, i think dwain dibley. Then all becomes clear..

hehe.

"Just let me check: thermos, sandwiches, corn plasters, telephone money, dandruff brush, animal footprint chart, and one triple thick condom... you never know!"

[the flying pig]

I don't believe there were any green shoots...

of course there weren't - well, not in the sense of anything that could possibly put any upward pressure on prices. i can believe that there were & probably still are slightly more transactions going through, but at continually falling prices.

skyrocketing unemployment, very poor [relative to the level that inflated the bubble to its peak] credit availability, prices still ludicruosly high as a proportion of income... how on earth could prices be headed anywhere other than downwards?

a sign of the level of paranioa on here that a couple of nitwit EAs making feeble, desperate, attempts to talk up prices could make such an impact.

Edited March 9, 2009 by the flying pig

[ParticleMan]

The 2009 spring bounce, in pictures...

[Austin Allegro]

I don't bother engaging with Sibley anymore, there is little point. You can't have a debate with people who are so stupid.

Ironically though I have a very good friend who is senior guy at Stratstone he was telling me on Saturday that they are well ahead of budget on sales of 4 x 4's, I was amazed!!!

I see him as a senile, harmless, elderly relation, who is able to talk coherently about the past but has no clue about what is going on in the present...

[zilly]

I see him as a senile, harmless, elderly relation, who is able to talk coherently about the past but has no clue about what is going on in the present...

The great thing about it is that sensible people will see that price reductions are good for EVERYONE in that you can upgrade your house for less money. It's all relative.

So the sensible will embrace the situation and use it to move up the ladder at lower cost.

The greedy such as Sibley who only see a bunch of £££ signs in front of their eyes will sit tight, refusing to sell at anything they perceive their crappy little place is 'worth', waiting for prices to 'recover'.

Hence they will miss out on the opportunity to upgrade, and whilst their more intelligent friends and family are moving on, they'll be stuck due to their stupidity and pride in refusing to accept they were wrong.

Fantastic!

It's the mark of a savvy investor to admit the game is up, take action to change their situation and react to market conditions.

The poor investor sits on his/her hands convinced that everything will be OK and ignoring what's in front of their eyes.

I think we can see which camp our man is in.

Edited March 9, 2009 by zilly