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About ParticleMan

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  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-25/pboc-official-says-local-government-bankruptcies-are-needed Merry Yuan-mass.
  2. As Putin's desparate attempt to shore up lost corporate sponsors (those believed drowned at sea in a truly Maxwellian oil glut) ... via the Blair playbook ... plays its way out toward its sickening conclusion... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-17/putin-says-france-now-ally-in-syria-as-russia-steps-up-strikes ... shorting the Ruble looks like a reasonably safe bet, no? ... and do I smell the demographic sands a-shifting in Chelski?
  3. The next topic of conversation is of course this... ... who the merry hell is buying all those Treasuries. Whoever it is that's attempting to gobble down the Chinese firehose, is also stuffing their Christmas stocking full of ultra low yield, QE++, fully priced "it's a new normal" ZIRP (if not NIRP) junk bonds. What I suspect is this - after all the scandals, institutional portfolios are now having their "fool me twice" moment, going underweight those evil risk assets and overweight nice "safe" government debt. Only problem is, if even the natural long only funds/ buy side roll over and play dead, at a macro level this surely means the gradual Japanification of Western economies. (falling investment and rising risk aversion will have a long and deep rooted effect on productivity) Let's hope the US economy doesn't actually contract any time soon, eh? (being paid your coupon in Zimbabwe dollars would really zing)
  4. So nice of them to give credit where it's due, don't you think? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/deutsche-bank-it-s-chinese-quantitative-tightening-that-s-been-slamming-markets-around-the-world
  5. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/china-said-to-intervene-to-shore-up-stock-market-before-parade-idtyzfdu
  6. Hat-tip to northshore... http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/19/us-imf-currency-china-idUSKCN0QO1RT20150819
  7. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-09/deutsche-bank-china-can-learn-from-1987-plunge-protection-team Where's that popcorn.
  8. The game's definitely heating up on centre court... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-01/yuan-enlists-canada-to-challenge-world-domination-of-u-s-dollar http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-09/china-s-imf-ambitions-send-warning-signal-to-yuan-short-sellers http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-25/bernanke-says-currency-mismatch-a-risk-for-china-policy-makers http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-18/what-happened-to-paulson-s-china-talks-this-year-pay-attention http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-26/china-seen-winning-reserve-currency-endorsement-in-imf-s-review http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/china-stocks-rout-to-slow-capital-account-opening-nomura-says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/chinese-trading-halts-freeze-1-4-trillion-of-shares-amid-rout Advantage Paulson/ Bernanke I'd say... but what would I know, right?
  9. What I despise most about "people farmers" (great meme btw, hat-tip to its originator - whoever they were) is that the malinvestment resulting from a generation's worth of unchecked, rampant asset price speculation has starved the real economy of much needed capital (hence, growth, jobs, and opportunity for the young). Think what could have been, if the trillions spooged on "itsmypensioninnit" land registry footnotes, had instead been consumed by research and development. Even the banks - during their worst historical excess - were never that endocannibalistic; they've always invested in whatever risk-de-jour is most marketable.
  10. (Martin) Bollard and Moulton launched Alchemy (a pirate equity firm) in '97; at the time, conditions were ripe for buying distressed equity (market cap less than balance sheet value) and according to The Independent they flipped around 70 such entities netting a cool £1.5bn or so in the process. By 2009, conditions were oddly less ripe (can't think what changed) and Moulton resigned over a proposed change in direction - sticking with the tried and tested strategy, and taking it with him to Better Capital. My takeaway? $hityLink continued to do what they do best - lose cash, fast - and discovered sometime in late October (or perhaps - November) that pirate equity firms tend to remain successful by resisting the urge to double down. If I had to take a bet, I'd bet on UPS buying the assets (given they wound up with what was left of Red Star Parcels, eventually...) (and not the liabilities - nobody would be stupid enough to repeat that mistake surely?)
  11. $hitylink have a long and interesting history. Initially created to wrapper British Rail's Red Star Parcels absurdity into a more complete door to door option, they were bought out in '89 by Securiguard... who were themselves swallowed up by Rentokil in '93, in what in retrospect appears to have been a straight up (and hostile) balance sheet raid by Clive Thomson (who later went on to cement his reputation presiding over 2006's Farepak implosion). Rentokil ultimately proved unable to digest the acquisition in what has now been extensively documented as an example of "Good Leaders" making "Bad Decision" (or as I prefer it - an epic strategic cockup) The only real mystery here is not why John Moulton walked away from this money sucking black hole; the mystery is why anyone at all is surprised. (and the only real failure here is that the RMT failed to advise their members to run, and not walk - still, hey ho, the taxpayer can always backstop their ineptitude, eh?)
  12. Myron Scholes (yes really, that Scholes) joined Janus back in July. The burier of bodies and the composer of hymns sharing one office? This ought to be entertaining. Time to stock up on popcorn.
  13. What do you do when the invisible hand declines to reach around one last time? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-14/china-considers-longest-underwater-tunnel-under-bohai-sea.html
  14. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-13/chinese-military-ship-confronts-u-s-cruiser-at-sea.html
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