Its Not As Bad As All That.....!

[Si1]

The logic (although the method of delivery of above poster is a bit blokey big dic* !);....... is there are properties starting to appear with desperate sellers. For example ( in the London area I know well) ...From top of the market last summer, you can see 10-15% discount in agents window (not foxtons of course!). ... If a desparate seller can be negotiated down to 40% from the top of the market, buying that property now at 40% discount is a good decision for an investor.

why?

because.. if the bears dreams do even come true and you get a 40% fall...as soon as you think it's there, its gone and the market is flooded with buyers again and the 40% discount has gone.

The logic is buy now when your the only one buying ! If the market doesn't get the 40% fall and only gets 25%....you've bought very well. Of course the risk is it could fall by 60%... but if there was no risk it wouldn't be called investing.

again well done for sticking to your guns..

but..

No! to the above because:

1) the banking system is also in a crisis, and its recovery may well be somewhat slow and cautious - in other words they won't be lending big mortgages out to any old credit rating for a long time. Debt and distrust do not disappear that easily.

2) people are sheeple

you may be seeing the HPC in isolation to the rest of the economy, which it is not, in either direction

edit to add:

3) demographics - noticed the recent news that ovber 65s outnumber under 18s? Thats a sign of a future dearth of young families needing houses, less demand, for a while anyway, but of course immigration could affect it, but not for a few years while the polish plumbers and fruit pickers all go home and protectionist politics reacts to the downturn.

Edited August 29, 2008 by Si1

[BTL_and_milking_it]

A whole week lurking, i would have imagined a dog could learn more in that time.

.

Did you buy your houses for cash? How does including the cost of capital affect your calculations?

.

I am wishing herpes on you.

.

St

Ok, if this represents the typical intelligence of posters on here then there's not really much point in discussing it. The properties were all cash purchases as I said in my previous post. All I am offering here is an alternative opinion to what you all seem to take as the way forward.

You all seem to be criticising the very people who are providing the homes you are living in. If all property investors sold their buy-to-lets as you are suggesting, where would you all live?

There are 2 sides to every discussion and everybody is entitled to their respective opinion. If you don't agree then thats fine, its worked for me and it still does, I've made a career from it and always will. Open your eyes to reality and the full picture. Long term property investment has never failed. Portfolio property bought in 1999 is currently yielding 17% Gross and is paid for by private tenants.

Thanks guys!

p.s herpes super ted? ....there's a nice little topic board on the play school website I believe!!

[muggle]

...If all property investors sold their buy-to-lets as you are suggesting, where would you all live?

Can anyone else spot the flaw in this argument?!

['Bart']

Come on guys.. Ive been watching this site now for a week or so and your're all acting like spoilt kids jumping up and down with excitment and the prospect of carniage in the property market. The truth is thats not going to happen is it? ..Yes a 'correction' was long overdue, but we are not going to see a 65% drop in prices, the fact is, house values will ALWAYS be underpinned by rental yields, and once the prices hit such that they yield 6.0/6.5% investors like myself will buy in.

Slow day at the EA?

Paperclips sorted by colour and cataloged?

Rubberband fights now banned by the boss?

Picked all the fluff off your TJ Hughes suit?

In which case, welcome to HPC.

[Lone_Twin]

Ok, if this represents the typical intelligence of posters. Snip...

1.My post was before you revealed you had bought for cash.

2. Btl parasites do not provide housing, unless they build property. The majority have used leveraged capital during a period of rapid hpi to mortgage the income of their tenants. Pushing up prices and restricting the supply of available homes for purchase especially by the younger generation. If all the parasites died tomorrow the houses would still stand.

3. In the words of the great john clease. You don't have to be grave to be serious.

4. If you are browsing a playschool website about herpes clearly my wish aiming was a little off. Can i be the first to wish you kids a speedy recovery.

[libspero]

You all seem to be criticising the very people who are providing the homes you are living in. If all property investors sold their buy-to-lets as you are suggesting, where would you all live?

And may I be the first to say how grateful we are that you are prepared to buy/hold the falling assets for us while we rent.

Don't worry.. we will all be buying in again in a few years so you won't be lonely. In the mean time thanks for taking the hit for us. You are a true star.

[nicebuyer]

To be fair to the guy he's totally correct about the 65% figure. A lot of people here are living in dreamland and quoting Japan as 'evidence' for why it could happen here. We will see another 10%-20% in falls, but not in all areas. My guess would be for another 10% drop with a slowdown due to confidence for 12 months. The moment rates come down and we have a couple of months of good news the EAs will be inundated with would be buyers. The banks are already back to silly lending at lower rates + higher multiples.

[Bloo Loo]

TROLL CITY THREAD

[Potwalloper]

To be fair to the guy he's totally correct about the 65% figure. A lot of people here are living in dreamland and quoting Japan as 'evidence' for why it could happen here. We will see another 10%-20% in falls, but not in all areas. My guess would be for another 10% drop with a slowdown due to confidence for 12 months. The moment rates come down and we have a couple of months of good news the EAs will be inundated with would be buyers. The banks are already back to silly lending at lower rates + higher multiples.

This point has already been made, but is being ignored, so...

I remember the 90's loss of confidence in housing very clearly. The country stopped talking about houses, there was nothing on the telly about them etc etc....

The overwhelming force in the housing economy is the herd. They will go to the other end of the field, for years if the previous pattern repeats itself. We who have sold to rent are a tiny tiny fraction - practically insignificant. This means that the bottom will be a wide u, rather than a sharp v.

Having said that, I think that the musical chairs analogy is a good one. We will be down to a handful of chairs and a similar number of players, so buying a house will be very boring.

[winkie]

To be fair to the guy he's totally correct about the 65% figure. A lot of people here are living in dreamland and quoting Japan as 'evidence' for why it could happen here. We will see another 10%-20% in falls, but not in all areas. My guess would be for another 10% drop with a slowdown due to confidence for 12 months. The moment rates come down and we have a couple of months of good news the EAs will be inundated with would be buyers. The banks are already back to silly lending at lower rates + higher multiples.

So why don't you view a few props make a few offers 10%-20% below asking, borrow a few bucks...why wait when you can jump in now before the rest do?

[PropertyGuru]

Come on guys.. Ive been watching this site now for a week or so and your're all acting like spoilt kids jumping up and down with excitment and the prospect of carniage in the property market. The truth is thats not going to happen is it? ..Yes a 'correction' was long overdue, but we are not going to see a 65% drop in prices, the fact is, house values will ALWAYS be underpinned by rental yields, and once the prices hit such that they yield 6.0/6.5% investors like myself will buy in.

Last month i bought a 2 year old apartment in SK15 for £95000. The current rental figure is circa £600PCM = 7.6% What are you all getting for your savings in the bank at the moment? 5.5%? Even if this property drops lower before it rises in value it has no consequence unless it has to be sold, and these are all 10yr+ investments. This is a no lose situation...the prospect of long term capital growth with a 7.79% income in the meantime.

With a financial interest in many properties the current climate does not phase me at all, it just presents a discounted buying opportunity, and with mortgages proving difficult or near impossible to obtail for Joe Public, it will be the professional property investors field day.

1/10

2nd worst troll this month.

[PropertyGuru]

To be fair to the guy he's totally correct about the 65% figure. A lot of people here are living in dreamland and quoting Japan as 'evidence' for why it could happen here. We will see another 10%-20% in falls, but not in all areas. My guess would be for another 10% drop with a slowdown due to confidence for 12 months. The moment rates come down and we have a couple of months of good news the EAs will be inundated with would be buyers. The banks are already back to silly lending at lower rates + higher multiples.

yawn. and 6 months ago trolls like this were saying '10% falls will never happen'... 3 months ago it was '20% falls will never happen...' now its '65% falls will never happen...'

I think that just about sums it up. Much like the halifraud are now saying 'but dont worry, house prices are STILL 20% higher than in 1953', silly twats like that will keep coming on here trying to be 'clever' and ending up looking like 'tards.

[Potwalloper]

.... of course, we may be in for a sagging L rather than a wide u.

Edited August 29, 2008 by chute

[Harry North]

The moment rates come down and we have a couple of months of good news the EAs will be inundated with would be buyers. The banks are already back to silly lending at lower rates + higher multiples.

When do you think rates will come down. Do you mean mortgage rates or the BOE base rate ?

Which banks are back to silly lending at lower rates and higher multiples please ? They have neither access to term funding nor the securitisation markets which are closed.

[Joey Buttafueco Jr]

To be fair to the guy he's totally correct about the 65% figure. A lot of people here are living in dreamland and quoting Japan as 'evidence' for why it could happen here. We will see another 10%-20% in falls, but not in all areas. My guess would be for another 10% drop with a slowdown due to confidence for 12 months. The moment rates come down and we have a couple of months of good news the EAs will be inundated with would be buyers. The banks are already back to silly lending at lower rates + higher multiples.

Nostradamus had spoken

Edited August 29, 2008 by Noel

[nicebuyer]

So why don't you view a few props make a few offers 10%-20% below asking, borrow a few bucks...why wait when you can jump in now before the rest do?

I'm already making offers at 10%-20% below asking. None are being accepted. It'll happen soon enough.

yawn. and 6 months ago trolls like this were saying '10% falls will never happen'... 3 months ago it was '20% falls will never happen...' now its '65% falls will never happen...'

There's a big difference between an easily recoverable 10% and a devastating 65%. I'm not saying it will never happen, I'm saying it's highly unlikely. Sure some places will see drops of that size but 65% drops nationally? I doubt it.

When do you think rates will come down. Do you mean mortgage rates or the BOE base rate ?

Either

Which banks are back to silly lending at lower rates and higher multiples please ? They have neither access to term funding nor the securitisation markets which are closed.

I can get 4+ times multiple from two banks right now, one being A&L. If I were to have a 50%-80% deposit it's even higher and at rates below 5.9%.

I also know a little about the securitization markets and funding access, no lectures please

Nostradamus had spoken

It's just about being sensible when it comes to predictions. Anyone can predict anything. I use what I know to make an educated guess. Tell me, upon what qualifications do you make your predictions? I'd be very interested??? Especially if you deem them to be more valid than my own.

Edited August 29, 2008 by schuey100

[Lone_Twin]

yawn. and 6 months ago trolls like this were saying '10% falls will never happen'... 3 months ago it was '20% falls will never happen...' now its '65% falls will never happen...'

I think that just about sums it up. Much like the halifraud are now saying 'but dont worry, house prices are STILL 20% higher than in 1953', silly twats like that will keep coming on here trying to be 'clever' and ending up looking like 'tards.

Post of the thread.

.

ST

[Bloo Loo]

Post of the thread.

.

ST

PG has a uniquely entertaining twang to his posts and a nose for Trolls worthy of a truffelhunter.

[Joey Buttafueco Jr]

I'm already making offers at 10%-20% below asking. None are being accepted. It'll happen soon enough.

There's a big difference between an easily recoverable 10% and a devastating 65%. I'm not saying it will never happen, I'm saying it's highly unlikely. Sure some places will see drops of that size but 65% drops nationally? I doubt it.

Either

I can get 4+ times multiple from two banks right now, one being A&L. If I were to have a 50%-80% deposit it's even higher and at rates below 5.9%.

I also know a little about the securitization markets and funding access, no lectures please

It's just about being sensible when it comes to predictions. Anyone can predict anything. I use what I know to make an educated guess. Tell me, upon what qualifications do you make your predictions? I'd be very interested??? Especially if you deem them to be more valid than my own.

" It's just about being sensible when it comes to predictions. Anyone can predict anything. I use what I know to make an educated guess. Tell me, upon what qualifications do you make your predictions? I'd be very interested??? Especially if you deem them to be more valid than my own."

I don't make predictions, because I am unable to see into the future. Qualifications are irrelevant in accuracy of predicting the future. Property futures are saying we still have >20% to go. Of course, these change daily based on new information in the marketplace.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/ju...ket.houseprices

[Harry North]

I can get 4+ times multiple from two banks right now, one being A&L. If I were to have a 50%-80% deposit it's even higher and at rates below 5.9%.

No sh*t Sherlock

[Ologhai Jones]

Are you a member of Mensa? Or just a member?

[worzel]

I can get 4+ times multiple from two banks right now, one being A&L. If I were to have a 50%-80% deposit it's even higher and at rates below 5.9%.

Who would need a 4+ times mortgage if they had a 50-80% deposit. this implies a very low salary, or a very expensive house with a mamouth deposit to boot. It difficult to envisage a scenario where this is would be the case. Just buy a cheaper house and have no mortgage.

[citronella]

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit .... as the old saying goes, looking at some of the posts on here , I have to agree.

Then again, I might just join in. Perhaps some of you would benefit from this course

http://www.winpropertyinvesting.co.uk/goog...;utm_medium=ppc

and could then backtrack.

Just to clarify. I have savings tucked away in high interest account, have a small mortgage on a property that I currently live in, which does not cripple me and also own a house which is about to be rented out......

What does that make me ?

[JohnnyB]

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit .... as the old saying goes, looking at some of the posts on here , I have to agree.

Then again, I might just join in. Perhaps some of you would benefit from this course

http://www.winpropertyinvesting.co.uk/goog...;utm_medium=ppc

and could then backtrack.

Just to clarify. I have savings tucked away in high interest account, have a small mortgage on a property that I currently live in, which does not cripple me and also own a house which is about to be rented out......

What does that make me ?

A boasting *******?

Edited August 29, 2008 by Jason

[Si1]

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit .... as the old saying goes, looking at some of the posts on here , I have to agree.

Then again, I might just join in. Perhaps some of you would benefit from this course

http://www.winpropertyinvesting.co.uk/goog...;utm_medium=ppc

and could then backtrack.

Just to clarify. I have savings tucked away in high interest account, have a small mortgage on a property that I currently live in, which does not cripple me and also own a house which is about to be rented out......

What does that make me ?

not as rich as you were yesterday, or the day before...