You Want To Know How Bad The Economy Is?

[Wad]

My brother in law is a truck driver - has his own tractor unit and pulls trailers for various big retailers. Works for himself and up until 18 months ago had as much work as he wanted as he has a Class I licence which means he can pull the biggest loads.

About 9 months ago his workload gradully dropped of to just 3 days per week - he mainly delivers cookers, fridges and TVs to big retailers as well as groceries for big supermarkets.

Now in the last month (July) he has had 2 days work only!

That drop off in demand is very very sudden. He describes it as like driving off a cliff. He is sure that it is entirely due to the economic downturn. It is very very severe and much worse than the hedlines suggest.

He luckily has written off he cost of his truck and is now going to sell it for scrap as it is not worth him taxing and licencing it given the level of demand he is seeing. He will go as an agency driver and retrain to do another job if necessary.

Anyone have any other examples of severe downturns in the economy outside the building trade?

I have been noticing very severe drop offs in the numbers of people in resturants and my wife has no problem getting appointments to the hairdressers now.

Edited July 18, 2008 by Wad

[The Retailer]

My brother in law is a truck driver - has his own tractor unit and pulls trailers for various big retailers. Works for himself and up until 18 months ago had as much work as he wanted as he has a Class I licence which means he can pull the biggest loads.

About 9 months ago his workload gradully dropped of to just 3 days per week - he mainly delivers cookers, fridges and TVs to big retailers as well as groceries for big supermarkets.

Now in the last month (July) he has had 2 days work only!

That drop off in demand is very very sudden. He describes it as like driving off a cliff. He is sure that it is entirely due to the economic downturn. It is very very severe and much worse than the hedlines suggest.

He luckily has written off he cost of his truck and is now going to sell it for scrap as it is not worth him taxing and licencing it given the level of demand he is seeing. He will go as an agency driver and retrain to do another job if necessary.

Anyone have any other examples of severe downturns in the economy outside the building trade?

I have been noticing very severe drop offs in the numbers of people in resturants and my wife has no problem getting appointments to the hairdressers now.

Alot of the lack of activity at the moment is down to retailers reducing stock to bare minimun to help cash flow ,and reflects the general uncertainty faced ,this takes several months to complete ,however once done ,things should pick up alittle. However there are huge distortions in the retail trade ,for a decade there has been way too much capacity and too much leverage.Most large non food groups have struggled to make a decent profit in the boom(profits generally relying more on accountancy tricks /cheap credit /revalution of property,inflated share price)I am pretty certain we are about to witness a retail bloodbath the like of which we have never seen before.Talking to other retailers (all types) in different parts of the country you get a real sense of despair /terror,trade for May was truley awful ,about 40% off ,if this where to continue for another 3 or 4 months this would probably prove fatal for alot of retailers, I've been expecting this for the last couple of years so have got my house in order.

[Caribbean Beauty]

Good anecdotal. Watch he does not tap you for money! Pretend you are broke just in case (unless you are close to sis). But I wonder if the summer holiday retail slowdown accounts for a large portion of his slowdown? To know this, you would need to compare with July 07 (apologies if the OP already covered this)

My sales of Caribbean accommodations have collapsed for a few months now, at least 40-50% down. Mainly Uk clientelle.

[Wad]

Alot of the lack of activity at the moment is down to retailers reducing stock to bare minimun to help cash flow ,and reflects the general uncertainty faced ,this takes several months to complete ,however once done ,things should pick up alittle. However there are huge distortions in the retail trade ,for a decade there has been way too much capacity and too much leverage.Most large non food groups have struggled to make a decent profit in the boom(profits generally relying more on accountancy tricks /cheap credit /revalution of property,inflated share price)I am pretty certain we are about to witness a retail bloodbath the like of which we have never seen before.Talking to other retailers (all types) in different parts of the country you get a real sense of despair /terror,trade for May was truley awful ,about 40% off ,if this where to continue for another 3 or 4 months this would probably prove fatal for alot of retailers, I've been expecting this for the last couple of years so have got my house in order.

I think destocking is very important here. Indeed I have heard that in China there are now piles of goods waiting to be shipped to the US and Europe that no one wants. The supply cjhaoin is full right now and so I guess there is not much need to move things along that supply chain - hence my brother in law seeing a drop off in demand for his services.

Luckily my brother in law is in very good financial shape and his wife has a good job. They have no mortgage either and live well within their means.

[renterbob]

Alot of the lack of activity at the moment is down to retailers reducing stock to bare minimun to help cash flow ,and reflects the general uncertainty faced ,this takes several months to complete ,however once done ,things should pick up alittle. However there are huge distortions in the retail trade ,for a decade there has been way too much capacity and too much leverage.Most large non food groups have struggled to make a decent profit in the boom(profits generally relying more on accountancy tricks /cheap credit /revalution of property,inflated share price)I am pretty certain we are about to witness a retail bloodbath the like of which we have never seen before.Talking to other retailers (all types) in different parts of the country you get a real sense of despair /terror,trade for May was truley awful ,about 40% off ,if this where to continue for another 3 or 4 months this would probably prove fatal for alot of retailers, I've been expecting this for the last couple of years so have got my house in order.

Great post.

No doubt this will rental prices even further down than they have fallen in t last few months (12+%)

[Driver]

At the barbers I heard that Vauxhall main dealer mechanics work had also fallen off a cliff. Mechanic now working only every other Saturday and there were eleven mechanics with a workload for just three mechanics.

[ajay]

At the barbers I heard that Vauxhall main dealer mechanics work had also fallen off a cliff. Mechanic now working only every other Saturday and there were eleven mechanics with a workload for just three mechanics.

Cars dont breakdown like they used to in the old days.

[idunno]

My brother in law is a truck driver - has his own tractor unit and pulls trailers for various big retailers. Works for himself and up until 18 months ago had as much work as he wanted as he has a Class I licence which means he can pull the biggest loads.

About 9 months ago his workload gradully dropped of to just 3 days per week - he mainly delivers cookers, fridges and TVs to big retailers as well as groceries for big supermarkets.

Now in the last month (July) he has had 2 days work only!

That drop off in demand is very very sudden. He describes it as like driving off a cliff. He is sure that it is entirely due to the economic downturn. It is very very severe and much worse than the hedlines suggest.

He luckily has written off he cost of his truck and is now going to sell it for scrap as it is not worth him taxing and licencing it given the level of demand he is seeing. He will go as an agency driver and retrain to do another job if necessary.

Anyone have any other examples of severe downturns in the economy outside the building trade?

I have been noticing very severe drop offs in the numbers of people in resturants and my wife has no problem getting appointments to the hairdressers now.

Know of two people being made redundent in the last fornight working at differnt firms.The international firm i work for are restructering and are making redundencies.

My mate ok he his a roofer has not worked all week,but hey I got a timberland shirt for 20 quid.

[Harry Monk]

I too drive an articulated lorry, but as an employee rather than as an owner driver.

Our main customer manufactures concrete lintels which we distribute to builders merchants.

The concrete company has reduced the production staff from 60 to 35 in two months and are making another seven redundancies this week.

We ourselves are finding alternative work where possible but we are facing redundancies too.

If folk ain't buying it, we ain't shifting it.

[uptherebels]

To be honest, I have not seen much change around here in terms of spending ( Market Harborough, Kettering, Corby). I was out for a meal the other night, and the place was full. At the cinema last night, and again it was full. I would have thought I would have seen a change by now, although I know it's still early days. I work in manufacturing, and the products we make are used soley in house building. We are as busy as ever. I cannot work it out. I have no idea where all this stuff is going, as new builds seem to have ground to a halt around here. As far as I know, we dont export, so am expecting a slowdown at work very soon

[Garry AKA Pod]

I hear Shell pay rather well.

[idunno]

To be honest, I have not seen much change around here in terms of spending ( Market Harborough, Kettering, Corby). I was out for a meal the other night, and the place was full. At the cinema last night, and again it was full. I would have thought I would have seen a change by now, although I know it's still early days. I work in manufacturing, and the products we make are used soley in house building. We are as busy as ever. I cannot work it out. I have no idea where all this stuff is going, as new builds seem to have ground to a halt around here. As far as I know, we dont export, so am expecting a slowdown at work very soon

I was down watford last weekend the cinema was full allocated seats and all that which I find strange being from up north,restaurants half full,

starting to see a lot of for sale signs around the area though with some being up for many months.

friends around the area who were as bullish as a bullish person could be have turned bearish not sure if realality has hit everyone in this area yet.

Here up in sheffield cinemas are practicly empty no allocated seating well there never was,restaurants empty,around the clubs at night empty.

for sale signs have been shooting up here for 18 months and are still on the market.

Majority of people I speak to are bearish about the market which after years of arguing the txsx with them I find strange.

[renterbob]

I was down watford last weekend the cinema was full allocated seats and all that which I find strange being from up north,restaurants half full,

starting to see a lot of for sale signs around the area though with some being up for many months.

friends around the area who were as bullish as a bullish person could be have turned bearish not sure if realality has hit everyone in this area yet.

Here up in sheffield cinemas are practicly empty no allocated seating well there never was,restaurants empty,around the clubs at night empty.

for sale signs have been shooting up here for 18 months and are still on the market.

Majority of people I speak to are bearish about the market which after years of arguing the txsx with them I find strange.

Try another cinema...Cineworld Sheffield is amazing, huge seats, loads of leg room, massive screens (screens 7+8), 3D (screen 17) and 20 screens in total, loads of free parking....for 12.99/month watch as many movies as you like....but the food outlets are really poor, not cheap, and the obligatory gasbag salad is not appetising by any standards. Has been very busy recently, but will no doubt die off sometime soon

Edited July 20, 2008 by renterbob

[idunno]

Try another cinema...Cineworld Sheffield is amazing, huge seats, loads of leg room, massive screens (screens 7+8), 3D (screen 17) and 20 screens in total, loads of free parking....for 12.99/month watch as many movies as you like....but the food outlets are really poor, not cheap, and the obligatory gasbag salad is not appetising by any standards. Has been very busy recently, but will no doubt die off sometime soon

Yeah I know that cinema a few months ago I always opted getting my tickets by phoning up first with credit card details and then picking the tickets up at one of those machines they have on the side to avoid all the hustle and bustle.

Now I find I can walk in straight up to the counter pay cash and collect the tickets.

As for the 12.99 a month card as I agree its a good idea If It was not tied to a 12 month contract.

Maybe contracts have ran out and people have decided not to renew could be a large part of this downturn.

Also with dvds becoming so cheap latley could also be a factor.

[Nomadd]

I have been noticing very severe drop offs in the numbers of people in resturants and my wife has no problem getting appointments to the hairdressers now.

Have the day off tomorrow. Planned to go and get a haircut at my local barbers - as you have no chance, and I mean no chance - of getting it done on a Saturday as he's so busy. It's been like this for the last 18 years I've been using him.

Walked past yesterday (Saturday), and he was sat in the Window twiddling his thumbs. Went to the post office and came back and the same thing, except now his assistant is sat there too! So, I walked over for a haircut and a chat. He said business collapsed about 3 weeks ago, and it's been dreadful. He's hoping it picks up next week once the kids are off school, but he really isn't sure. Strange times indeed.

Oh, and I had my car MOT'd and serviced last week. Only had to wait 4 days to get in. In the past, I've had to wait weeks.

Nomadd

[renterbob]

Yeah I know that cinema a few months ago I always opted getting my tickets by phoning up first with credit card details and then picking the tickets up at one of those machines they have on the side to avoid all the hustle and bustle.

Now I find I can walk in straight up to the counter pay cash and collect the tickets.

As for the 12.99 a month card as I agree its a good idea If It was not tied to a 12 month contract.

Maybe contracts have ran out and people have decided not to renew could be a large part of this downturn.

Also with dvds becoming so cheap latley could also be a factor.

Yeah, I agree, the 1 year contract was off putting, but it can be used up and down the uk, so still pretty good for us as we go around a bit. After 1 year we are now month by month. Can't prebook seats online with the card either so needs improving, I recently saw 'Hancock' twice though, once in Sheffield with the missus and once in Newcastle with my father, and it didn't cost me a penny...the wife pays for the cards

TBH we never buy food/drinks there...far too expensive...we're the couple digging into my wifes handbag for goodies pre-bought in ASDA.

Edited July 20, 2008 by renterbob

[Variously]

I was in the West End yesterday evening and saw something on Oxford Street I've not seen in a dogs age - a squat shop with a guy with a microphone doing a whole sales patter selling a load of (presumably) fake perfume. That just brings memories of the last recession flooding back.

Edited July 20, 2008 by Variously

[Caribbean Beauty]

Have the day off tomorrow. Planned to go and get a haircut at my local barbers - as you have no chance, and I mean no chance - of getting it done on a Saturday as he's so busy. It's been like this for the last 18 years I've been using him.

Walked past yesterday (Saturday), and he was sat in the Window twiddling his thumbs. Went to the post office and came back and the same thing, except now his assistant is sat there too! So, I walked over for a haircut and a chat. He said business collapsed about 3 weeks ago, and it's been dreadful. He's hoping it picks up next week once the kids are off school, but he really isn't sure. Strange times indeed.

Oh, and I had my car MOT'd and serviced last week. Only had to wait 4 days to get in. In the past, I've had to wait weeks.

Nomadd

So the Barber has had a #1 cut to his business - interesting. I guess at times like this everyone rushes to buy a Chinese made £4.99 home electric hair clipper set - if it does 300 cuts before the blades go blunt that is a huge saving on an £8 a pop barber. Poor buggers - they will have to bring back OAP specials and cheap day specials, restart flogging rubbers etc.

[renterbob]

So the Barber has had a #1 cut to his business - interesting. I guess at times like this everyone rushes to buy a Chinese made £4.99 home electric hair clipper set - if it does 300 cuts before the blades go blunt that is a huge saving on an £8 a pop barber. Poor buggers - they will have to bring back OAP specials and cheap day specials, restart flogging rubbers etc.

Got mine last week...t'was 8.99 from ASDA.

[Variously]

So the Barber has had a #1 cut to his business - interesting. I guess at times like this everyone rushes to buy a Chinese made £4.99 home electric hair clipper set - if it does 300 cuts before the blades go blunt that is a huge saving on an £8 a pop barber. Poor buggers - they will have to bring back OAP specials and cheap day specials, restart flogging rubbers etc.

If I get made redundant, a pair of clippers will be my first purchase, although I'l get some decent Wahl ones. I only ever have a crew cut and while I'm sure the barber makes a better job of it than I would, paying £6-50 plus tip every 3-4 weeks is something that will have to go if times are tight.

[Nomadd]

...buy a Chinese made £4.99 home electric hair clipper set - if it does 300 cuts before the blades go blunt that is a huge saving on an £8 a pop barber.

Unless they electrocute you first!

Nomadd

[mitchbux]

So the Barber has had a #1 cut to his business - interesting. I guess at times like this everyone rushes to buy a Chinese made £4.99 home electric hair clipper set - if it does 300 cuts before the blades go blunt that is a huge saving on an £8 a pop barber. Poor buggers - they will have to bring back OAP specials and cheap day specials, restart flogging rubbers etc.

Used my Boots reward points to get a 'free' decent set (ceramic blades). Had them over four years. OH and son like their hair done every 3 weeks. The clippers had paid for themselves in no time, and we estimate they are now saving us over £200 a year in haircuts.

[winkie]

I have given up going out anymore, because when I get home I feel somewhat raped...Stay at home, or visit close friends and family, or drive to the nearest airport for a short break and a welcome relief.

[eightiesgirly]

Get the missus to do the shaving of head, Mr EG seems to quite like it.

[renterbob]

If I get made redundant, a pair of clippers will be my first purchase, although I'l get some decent Wahl ones. I only ever have a crew cut and while I'm sure the barber makes a better job of it than I would, paying £6-50 plus tip every 3-4 weeks is something that will have to go if times are tight.

Mine are Wahl...8.99 as ASDA....great deal