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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Wad

  1. It doesn't take take into account any of the other costs of buying/owning either like initial refurbishment, stamp duty, ongoing repairs and insurance. I rent my house and I know the end of the house needs 30k of repairs and internal redecorating when I leave. I will not be paying for that.
  2. I have never give notice on any rental property until I have signed the agreement on the new property. Many landlords will sign for a month in advance. Frankly, if they won't then you can be sure they are just messing you about.
  3. The landlord can give you two month notice - that is the contract and as you are 100% sure he/she has another tenant in the wings who is prepared to pay then you know your choice is either pay up or leave.
  4. Same thing is happening round were we live. Georgian semi sold for £450k about a year ago. The other half of the semi just come on the market at £585k! Identical houses in every way and the same agent too. Makes no sense.
  5. In 2003 I went to view one of these houses that was featured in this article. It was/is a nice house and it later sold for asking price and it is now on for 2 x the price it sold for in 2005 - even after being reduced. I expect further more substantial reductions.
  6. An excellent analysis I was in Ireland a few days ago in Kerry and absolutely concur with the conclusion that houses outside Dublin have to fall a lot further in price. Asking prices in estate agent windows just simply do not look cheap yet. I also spent an evening with an estate agent and he was very open about the situation. He said the true value of houses and the loans attached to them is not being reflected in Irish bank balance sheets. It was clear he thought prices had a lot further to fall but one of the problems he faces is getting banks to agree to sell their repossessed property portfolios. He said what assets are inside NAMA are far worse quality than being publicly acknowledged. The whole market is in suspended animation he said. He also said asking prices were far above the actual prices that were being achieved. I certainly saw row upon row of clearly empty newbuild houses with others still under construction. For sale signs everywhere. Interestingly, I read elsewhere that the Irish Govt is launchng an initiative to get the actual agreed sale rices of houses put in the public domain - not just asking prices. The problem is that no one trusts or believes what estate agents and other vested interests are saying about prices. The gap between asking price and actual selling price is so large that people are too frightened to bid for fear of overpaying. In the old days the asking prices represented someting close to the actual price paid. Not anymore. On the issue of the 30 - 40 year old generation. A taxi driver told me that 20 young people had last week left the village and gone to Australia. These are the people that should be buying houses as they put their foot on the first rung of the ladder. Thay are not buying. They are leaving the country. The 30 - 40 year olds have no one to sell to. There are massive public sector wage cuts coming as Ireland can barely issue any more Govt bonds as the only real buyer is the ECB. My conclusion was exactly as this article says, there is a lot further to go in Ireland before house prics touch bottom and the UK will follow in their footsteps.
  7. Yes I agree but you missed another major category and I thnk the real cause of a lack of leding to small business. Most 'small business loans' were in fact secured against the house value of the small business owner. The reality is that almost all small business lending was nothing of thr sort - it was just another form of property lending. Now house values look decidedly weak and falling again the banks are not willing to lend against the value of a house owned by a small business owner. Simple as that.
  8. Personally, I would suggest to the agent that you are looking for somewhere to settle down and mention you have a girlfriend. No lies but having rented houses for 25 years what you have to do is sell yourself to the landlord via the agent. Mention what kind of job you have, mention your degree if you have one, mention the stability of your employer,mention your quiet lifestyle. In effect, tick the boxes that a landlord is looking for. If you have to, get your girlfriend to come to viewings with you.
  9. Just watching CNBC. They are reporting that the value of sovereign debt in teh investment book has bene published as well in teh detailed figures. No haircut was applied but the data is now availabel in the public domain so analysts/investors wil be able to apply their own haircut to the investment book to add to the published figure on the trading book. It coudl take a while to run the numbers but by Monday everyone will have a better picture at least of sovereign debt exposure. Bet we still cannot figure out how big the losses on real estate are and how realsitic the reported losses on that are.
  10. Does anyone know if there has been any write down or haircuts applied to commerical and residential property in these stress tests or has all tose property loans been put down as 'investments' held to maturity? By my reconing, if the value of the investment book including any property loans were written down or even just marked to market many of these banks would have failed the test. Put it this way, if they had been able to pass the test by putting in the investment book and not just the trading book I feel sure they would have reported those results. Its clear that too many banks would have failed if the investment books had been included.
  11. My wife is from up there and says it the posh bit of Gateshead. Valley Drive in particular.
  12. That statistic is frightening and is the reason the entire US banking system is STILL bust despite the bailout.....yet so few commentators dare to say it.
  13. A great article and very sobering read. The impact on white men in white collar jobs and how that tears a hole in the fabric of society in places in the Mid West will be something that some places never recover from.
  14. Wow! I have not posted on HPC for 10 months and the first post I click on is about the area my parents in law live in. Best streets are as follows. Forest Avenue, Granville Drive is OK. Northmberland Avenue and uptowards Benton is quite nice and puts you in the catchement for nice primary school called St Bartholomew's. Keep away for Palmersville area.
  15. I do not understand your comment. Allowing a LL to have people round to view a property and offering to keep the place reasonably clean and tidy in return for 24 hours notice is a way of keeping good relations. It has worked for me over 25 years of renting. How long have you been a LL? Never had a bad reference in my life. Had to tell a few selling agents to back off though and my LLs have backed me up and got on the phone to tell the selling agents to sort themselves out.
  16. I have been in this situation. Yes the LL can sell the property. If the lease says you must allow viewing in the last month of the tenancy then do comply. However, I have found that selling agents take an utterly dismissive and arraogant attitude to tenants and have just turned up on my doorstep in the past with people wishing to view. Do not allow yourself to be walked on. You have a lot of rights. I always do the following. Contact the selling agents by email and say you will allow viewings Monday - Friday 9.00 - 17.00. Agents must give 24 hours notice by email. If they do that you will endeavour to keep the flat in a reasonable state of cleanliness and tidy. If they do not play ball and just turn up or try to get in at short notice or on weekend days - just refuse entry. The selling agent will prefer a cooperative tenant than one that is not. It is in breach of the tenancy for anyone to enter your house without your permission or at reasonable notice - it is your home. I have a female friend who is renting and in your position and her husband is away so the agent has tried to bully her into allowing viewings at short notice. Her husband had to have a word and tell them to back off in no uncertain terms..
  17. Wow! I tell you that rental level has not gone up much since 2000 when I left London. £1400 - 1500 for a two bedder near Kings Raod at half the cost a mortgage and no capital losses. Who said renting was dead money? They are looking at renting tomorrow - that should be good.
  18. Merryn says: "Rental properties have roofs too! She is good - very very good.
  19. Merryn says: "The market does not care what price you need" That should be on the front page of HPC.
  20. Why don't you just ring the agent and offer to rent it at the new lower price? I happened with our house (although we had given notice) and after a while we just offered to carry on at the new lower rent level. It worked fine. We are still there 2 years later.
  21. I still come on very day and read the news digest on the front page but post far less now than I used to because the crash is really starting to happen. It is working out the way we thougt and now wage deflation is here too. I have offered on houses at deep discounts but no one is biting yet. The arguement is won - now it is just a waiting game. There is not much left to say but still enjoy reading other people' anecdotal experiences. I am waiting to see when people on here really start buying huses at at what sort of discount. I spend a lot of tme on political blogs now as the Election is the next big area of interest to me.
  22. An alternative to a rent reduction is asking for 1 - 2 month rent free. It keeps the LL happy and all they lose is the void they would have had anyway. Many agents are advising this as an alternative to their LL clients.
  23. As I said last month, this is due to a change in the mix of houses on sale. Less flats at say £100k and more family homes at say £250k means the average price of what is on offer in aggregate therefore went up but within each category (e.g detached, semi, terraced, flats) prices probably still went down.
  24. I know someone who works for one of the major car dealerships with a national forecourt and internet presence. He says the number of sales they made so far in April is worse than the dire forecast that head office had pencilled in. No Spring shoots there then!
  25. Let us not forget that local newspapers are in a really dire financial downturn on advertiskg revenue and much of that is due to much lower revenue form property advertising. BothEAs and local news pper owners have a vested interest in the property market picking up.
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