April's Nationwide Index -0.4% MoM +0.6 YoY

[zugzwang]

42 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

Almost everyone with half a brain knew that inflation wouldn't be transitory,

Not these two.

[Tony_Teacake]

5 hours ago, Stewy said:

At the moment noone believes rates are going to stay as high as they are

You are definitely one of them. We all know your cheap fix is ending very soon and the truth is you need them to come down.

I still chuckle to myself about your 212k wage packet 🤣🤣🤣 you are a right pinochio but to be fair you are not the only one on here

[Tony_Teacake]

2 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Not these two.

Also there are a lot of folk on here who still think the CPi figures are not fudged

[scottbeard]

9 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said:

Also there are a lot of folk on here who still think the CPi figures are not fudged

They are systematically designed to produce low numbers, which is not the same as fudging.

[Stewy]

9 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

They are systematically designed to produce low numbers, which is not the same as fudging.

Do explain, I'm intrigued. 

[zugzwang]

11 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

They are systematically designed to produce low numbers, which is not the same as fudging.

That sounds like fudging.

[Lagarde's Drift]

22 hours ago, Stewy said:

He'll just get a huge munchie box to last Friday and most of the weekend instead...

 

Oh god. the beigeeeeeeee.

My eyes! My heart! My arteries!

[scottbeard]

40 minutes ago, Stewy said:

Do explain, I'm intrigued. 

They allow for something called "substitution effect" where if beef (say) becomes more expensive people are assumed to switch more of their expenditure into chicken (say) which does a similar job and is cheaper.

Which I'm sure they do. But that in my view is measuring someone's REACTION to inflation, and not inflation itself.  

CPI captures this by use of a geometric (rather than arithmetic) averaging method, which in mathematical terms always produces a number closer to zero (whether that is a smaller positive or a smaller negative).

It ends up reducing CPI by about 0.5%pa relative to what it should be, but over many years that compounds up hugely.

38 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

That sounds like fudging.

Well it has exactly the same impact as fudging - but the key point is what they do is explained on their website, and they do it.  Whereas fudging implies "hmm this month we could do with it being a bit lower, let's just call it 3.0 instead of 3.2".

It's the same as the distinction between tax avoidance and tax evasion - either way you pay less tax, but one is open and allowed (indeed arguably encouraged) and the other hidden and illegal.

[Unmoderated]

16 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I hardly think that people are likely to blame foreigners for fish and chips being expensive are they?!

And if Jim is 47 today as I said, he would have been 39 at the time of the referendum, and likely voted Remain.

Anyway my point was that the average British person is worse off, but at the moment it's mostly chipping away (no pun intended) at the edges of their lifestyle and not (for example) seeing them homeless or starving and certainly not a financial collapse.

As to who or what is to BLAME of course in reality it's a combination of factors over several decades...and will be different for different people.  Liz Truss, Brexit and foreigners certainly come up as items of blame for things, but let's see what today's elections tell us about who people think is to blame...

Agree - well, reasonable people are hardly likely to..........

You are right, standard of living has gone backwards the last few years and it's noticeable.

Anecdotally, I am fortunate with a good job and earn well (household income is over £180K excluding bonuses - GF is a primary school teacher) but, the other night I CBA to cook as my GF and I had been out meeting a friend for a couple of drinks. Went to the chippy and it was £19.30 for two cod and one large chips. Even I, with no kids or debt beyond a mortgage thought WTAF!? I'm not close to being on the streets but I think there's a strong enough safety net of a minimum quality of life in the UK that seems to be rapidly rising and catching more and more. I'm fortunate to live in a decent market town too with a great high street. Visiting other town centres that have fared less well is a bit of a shocker these days. Many empty units and little entertainment/leisure. 

I'm a big convert to Aldi now (having become a bit of a Waitrose boy during lockdown). Decent bottle of Douro for under £7. Large pack of chicken thigh fillets for under £4 and even with extras to make a decent curry or stew or just marinate and veg you've a delicious and healthy (bar the wine) alternative to the chippy. 

Back to your general point I think people need to blame someone/thing for their own situation. It's a general point around acceptance of your lot in life and people's entitlement. When it comes to politics most are simply arguing around fairness. 

No doubt people blame the Tories - and they have to carry a lot of the can for the mess we're in now - but Brexit would never have happened without UKIP taking 18% of the popular vote. It's easy to point the finger for what did happen but far harder to appreciate what could have happened instead. Imagine, for instance, UKIP holding the balance of power in a coalition or even taking a majority!?

The GFC hit UK hard. I remember reading something on this while doing my ACA and got chatting to the waitress at the hotel bar I was staying in (work trip - talk to anyone lol) and I explained that, imho, it took us a decade to get into the mess of the GFC and it'll take at least that to get back out.

As you say though, it's complex. Different people blame different things for where we are. I blame the size of the welfare state mostly and the general idea the government should solve everybody's problems. Government never seems to shrink. Pre WW2 and post WW2..... we have more people employed than the government today than pre-covid. What are they all doing? 

As a direct result of that we get into the fiscal insanity of our tax codes and the complexity making people here think they're hard done by because pensions are higher in Germany (overlooking they pay an additional 10% on top of taxes to fund it). In turn large numbers of young high earners are leaving each year. About 3K a year I last read. Maybe not the damn bursting but it's every year. 3K people on £100K a year pay enough in taxes to fund approx. 9K state pensions. What can't be measured is the sheer number of people who cannot be bothered to even try. I've several friends from upper middle class backgrounds (not super wealthy by any stretch) and they're self employed doing the bare minimum, living out of camper vans half the year and then hanging out in their little 'shack' in Portugal for the remainder. 

I blame Gordon Brown and New-Labour.

My dad blames Thatcher.

Kids these days blame 'Tories'.

In a decade or so we'll be blaming Starmer and Co.

I just think the average voter is too thick to genuinely appreciate what needs to be done to get the UK back on an even keel or (possibly more likely) too old to care.

[Stewy]

4 minutes ago, Unmoderated said:

Agree - well, reasonable people are hardly likely to..........

You are right, standard of living has gone backwards the last few years and it's noticeable.

Anecdotally, I am fortunate with a good job and earn well (household income is over £180K excluding bonuses - GF is a primary school teacher) but, the other night I CBA to cook as my GF and I had been out meeting a friend for a couple of drinks. Went to the chippy and it was £19.30 for two cod and one large chips. Even I, with no kids or debt beyond a mortgage thought WTAF!? I'm not close to being on the streets but I think there's a strong enough safety net of a minimum quality of life in the UK that seems to be rapidly rising and catching more and more. I'm fortunate to live in a decent market town too with a great high street. Visiting other town centres that have fared less well is a bit of a shocker these days. Many empty units and little entertainment/leisure. 

I'm a big convert to Aldi now (having become a bit of a Waitrose boy during lockdown). Decent bottle of Douro for under £7. Large pack of chicken thigh fillets for under £4 and even with extras to make a decent curry or stew or just marinate and veg you've a delicious and healthy (bar the wine) alternative to the chippy. 

Back to your general point I think people need to blame someone/thing for their own situation. It's a general point around acceptance of your lot in life and people's entitlement. When it comes to politics most are simply arguing around fairness. 

No doubt people blame the Tories - and they have to carry a lot of the can for the mess we're in now - but Brexit would never have happened without UKIP taking 18% of the popular vote. It's easy to point the finger for what did happen but far harder to appreciate what could have happened instead. Imagine, for instance, UKIP holding the balance of power in a coalition or even taking a majority!?

The GFC hit UK hard. I remember reading something on this while doing my ACA and got chatting to the waitress at the hotel bar I was staying in (work trip - talk to anyone lol) and I explained that, imho, it took us a decade to get into the mess of the GFC and it'll take at least that to get back out.

As you say though, it's complex. Different people blame different things for where we are. I blame the size of the welfare state mostly and the general idea the government should solve everybody's problems. Government never seems to shrink. Pre WW2 and post WW2..... we have more people employed than the government today than pre-covid. What are they all doing? 

As a direct result of that we get into the fiscal insanity of our tax codes and the complexity making people here think they're hard done by because pensions are higher in Germany (overlooking they pay an additional 10% on top of taxes to fund it). In turn large numbers of young high earners are leaving each year. About 3K a year I last read. Maybe not the damn bursting but it's every year. 3K people on £100K a year pay enough in taxes to fund approx. 9K state pensions. What can't be measured is the sheer number of people who cannot be bothered to even try. I've several friends from upper middle class backgrounds (not super wealthy by any stretch) and they're self employed doing the bare minimum, living out of camper vans half the year and then hanging out in their little 'shack' in Portugal for the remainder. 

I blame Gordon Brown and New-Labour.

My dad blames Thatcher.

Kids these days blame 'Tories'.

In a decade or so we'll be blaming Starmer and Co.

I just think the average voter is too thick to genuinely appreciate what needs to be done to get the UK back on an even keel or (possibly more likely) too old to care.

There's a real incongruity between what I read on these forums and what I see in real life.

All my friends and family are very "comfortable". New cars & houses a non-issue. No-one at all stressed about money - only issue is considering where to put spare cash each month. 

Thriving towns, restaurants, pubs. 

Obese (overly well fed) people everywhere in nice clothes, with smartphones. Takeaways for the so-called poor three times a week.

People on here are too negative trying to drag others down into their personal depression  👎 

[yodigo]

5 minutes ago, Stewy said:

There's a real incongruity between what I read on these forums and what I see in real life.

All my friends and family are very "comfortable". New cars & houses a non-issue. No-one at all stressed about money - only issue is considering where to put spare cash each month. 

Thriving towns, restaurants, pubs. 

Obese (overly well fed) people everywhere in nice clothes, with smartphones. Takeaways for the so-called poor three times a week.

People on here are too negative trying to drag others down into their personal depression  👎 

You're not wrong. When I take the car out on a Saturday or Sunday the traffic is very heavy, the retail park packed. Try the M1 southbound at MK at 5.30pm on a Saturday, packed. 

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, yodigo said:

You're not wrong. When I take the car out on a Saturday or Sunday the traffic is very heavy, the retail park packed. Try the M1 southbound at MK at 5.30pm on a Saturday, packed. 

But what you can't see is whether all those people are spending £32 per visit rather than £40 etc

A 20% fall in sales would be catastrophic for many businesses, and yet not reduce traffic in the car park at all.

The problem on HPC is most people speak in polarised extremes - the UK is *not* a third world country, we are *not* in the middle of a financial collapse ... but equally nor is everything fine.

In hyperbole terms post-COVID and Brexit basically "nothing works and no-one has got any money".

But in genuine measurable terms NHS waiting lists and times have soared, excess deaths have persisted, inflation is stubborn, etc.   Literally anything with a number on it suggests that number is either worse than 2019, or worse than its target, or both.

[NoHPCinTheUK]

Soho restaurants were literally empty last Saturday when I went there for my usual monthly trip to central London. Never seen anything like that. Maybe the awful weather? 
 

Oxford street packed with people as usual. 
 

Generally speaking I’ve lost that particular mindset which drives consumption: the idea that you will see that pound again pretty soon. 
 

I would like to book a trip for this summer somewhere in the sun. I managed to find a couple of options for around £2k but I’m starting to wonder if I need a vacation more than the money in September. 
 

Awful feeling. 

Edited May 3 by NoHPCinTheUK

[Johnno1167]

3 hours ago, Stewy said:

There's a real incongruity between what I read on these forums and what I see in real life.

All my friends and family are very "comfortable". New cars & houses a non-issue. No-one at all stressed about money - only issue is considering where to put spare cash each month. 

Thriving towns, restaurants, pubs. 

Obese (overly well fed) people everywhere in nice clothes, with smartphones. Takeaways for the so-called poor three times a week.

People on here are too negative trying to drag others down into their personal depression  👎 

Not sustainable for the planet though .  People shouldn’t be overly well fed. Also  shouldn’t over consume material stuff.. not saying don’t buy anything, but over-consumption may be masking something else (lack of purpose / self respect / driven by impulsive TV / online advertising).

It all has consequences.  

My son and his teenage mates I’m amazed at .. : never ask for anything.. have all taken it upon themselves to enjoy basics (read/play music / play sport / chat and debate/ play games / lark about / use the technology until it konks out) vs spend time in fast food joints, shops, town centre, lust after latest iPhone etc…. 

[dpg50000]

4 hours ago, scottbeard said:

But what you can't see is whether all those people are spending £32 per visit rather than £40 etc

A 20% fall in sales would be catastrophic for many businesses, and yet not reduce traffic in the car park at all.

The problem on HPC is most people speak in polarised extremes - the UK is *not* a third world country, we are *not* in the middle of a financial collapse ... but equally nor is everything fine.

In hyperbole terms post-COVID and Brexit basically "nothing works and no-one has got any money".

But in genuine measurable terms NHS waiting lists and times have soared, excess deaths have persisted, inflation is stubborn, etc.   Literally anything with a number on it suggests that number is either worse than 2019, or worse than its target, or both.

IMO, this post should be pinned. There are too many who don't have any nuance - it's either everything's amazing or the end of the world is nigh, whereas the truth is exactly as you have posted.

[Stewy]

13 hours ago, dpg50000 said:

IMO, this post should be pinned. There are too many who don't have any nuance - it's either everything's amazing or the end of the world is nigh, whereas the truth is exactly as you have posted.

The truth is that we Live Like Kings, many don't realise it and are ungrateful. 

👑 

[henry the king]

18 hours ago, scottbeard said:

But what you can't see is whether all those people are spending £32 per visit rather than £40 etc

A 20% fall in sales would be catastrophic for many businesses, and yet not reduce traffic in the car park at all.

The problem on HPC is most people speak in polarised extremes - the UK is *not* a third world country, we are *not* in the middle of a financial collapse ... but equally nor is everything fine.

In hyperbole terms post-COVID and Brexit basically "nothing works and no-one has got any money".

But in genuine measurable terms NHS waiting lists and times have soared, excess deaths have persisted, inflation is stubborn, etc.   Literally anything with a number on it suggests that number is either worse than 2019, or worse than its target, or both.

True, the central bank errors during covid were severe and will have severe implications, a lot of which we have already seen with inflation.

Central banks thought people wouldn't demand higher wages. They were wrong. That was a massive mistake, and one which will wipe out all sitting parties across europe in this election year. 

People will blame elected politicians but in reality the fault lies with Bailey, Powell, etc. They made critical and huge errors, and the ripple effects of those errors are being seen in things like inflation and NHS waiting lists. 

[Stewy]

2 minutes ago, henry the king said:

Central banks thought people wouldn't demand higher wages. They were wrong. That was a massive mistake, and one which will wipe out all sitting parties across europe in this election year. 

😆 

Yet more Doom Porn Nothingburger predictions from the peanut gallery. Inflation has collapsed, decent growth is back and 2024-2027 are looking primed for economic health. 

🌻 

[dpg50000]

17 minutes ago, Stewy said:

The truth is that we Live Like Kings, many don't realise it and are ungrateful. 

👑

The truth is that 99% of what you post is total fantasy troll nonsense, with you sadly trying to get a rise out of people. The further truth is that no-one cares what you think.

[Stewy]

3 hours ago, dpg50000 said:

The truth is that 99% of what you post is total fantasy troll nonsense, with you sadly trying to get a rise out of people. The further truth is that no-one cares what you think.

I don't troll, I'm a counterpoint to the depressionist collapsist black pill doom world some try to portray. 

 

[Huggy]

53 minutes ago, Stewy said:

I don't troll, I'm a counterpoint to the depressionist collapsist black pill doom world some try to portray. 

 

You do realise a stonking great HPC will be all of those things on the right hand side don't you

Just not for some ...

[Stewy]

18 hours ago, Huggy said:

You do realise a stonking great HPC will be all of those things on the right hand side don't you

Just not for some ...

If a "stonking great HPC" happens I will be the first to accept it...and buy a 2nd or 3rd.

Buy low, sell high ✓

At present though we are On The Plateau and just awaiting interest rate hacks before off to the races again IMO 🐎 

[sell2rent]

2 hours ago, Stewy said:

If a "stonking great HPC" happens I will be the first to accept it...and buy a 2nd or 3rd.

Buy low, sell high ✓

At present though we are On The Plateau and just awaiting interest rate hacks before off to the races again IMO 🐎 

What metrics would you use to value in terms of boomer numbers, income multiples and overall state of the economy to decide when? Or your preferred ones. I will probably buy again but a modest dip from here might not be enough and if it remains cheaper to rent than buy the house type and location I am likely to be in for my 50s I will keep doing that.

[Stewy]

6 minutes ago, sell2rent said:

What metrics would you use to value in terms of boomer numbers, income multiples and overall state of the economy to decide when? Or your preferred ones. I will probably buy again but a modest dip from here might not be enough and if it remains cheaper to rent than buy the house type and location I am likely to be in for my 50s I will keep doing that.

I don't use metrics as such, coming more from a fundamentals rather than technicals trading background. 

The most clear thing is that the population is blooming while houses are not being built fast enough.

The conclusion I reach from that, whether by buyers or BLT, is that HPIs are only going up. 

I suspect another 10-20% uplift is likely imminent 🌱 

[sell2rent]

1 hour ago, Stewy said:

I don't use metrics as such, coming more from a fundamentals rather than technicals trading background. 

The most clear thing is that the population is blooming while houses are not being built fast enough.

The conclusion I reach from that, whether by buyers or BLT, is that HPIs are only going up. 

I suspect another 10-20% uplift is likely imminent 🌱 

I'm uninformed about the economic status of immigrants and what they are buying in year 1 and year 10 after arrival, and indeed every boomer house isn't always large and could be carved up into HMOs or flats. The other question is whether the low rates and high income multiples after the GFC will return and persist, or whether we are due a reset. I think a reset would be in the better interests of the country rather than the modest real terms drop we've seen then back off to the races. It feels like we should have something better to do as an economy than stagflation because I think that is what you're describing.