22/04/2024 - The exact moment the housing bubble burst

[Sackboii]

11 minutes ago, AThirdWay said:

Did you predict rates to rise then?

I’d predicted the market were getting ahead of themselves. 

[cdd]

1 hour ago, Pebbles said:

Time to save this thread in the pile of previous ones over the last 25 years. This place is littered with posters claiming the end is here for hpi. For the record I think this thread will be as accurate and correct as the other 300.

If this thread is right or not doesn't matter.

What does matter, is that decades of rampant HPI, with houses being one of the best investments, is hopefully coming to an end.

Why? Because of higher rates? Of course not, not by itself.

Though it will take time, it is becoming recognised that houses being used as investments for the haves, at the expense of the have nots, while being a primary contributor to rising inequality, is not good for society.

So therefore, anyone betting on the next decade and beyond looking like the past several decades, is probably going to lose.

[mynamehere]

22 minutes ago, cdd said:

If this thread is right or not doesn't matter.

What does matter, is that decades of rampant HPI, with houses being one of the best investments, is hopefully coming to an end.

Why? Because of higher rates? Of course not, not by itself.

Though it will take time, it is becoming recognised that houses being used as investments for the haves, at the expense of the have nots, while being a primary contributor to rising inequality, is not good for society.

So therefore, anyone betting on the next decade and beyond looking like the past several decades, is probably going to lose.

 

Loads of stuff is not good for society. Health inequality. Underinvestment in infraastructure and services. Country is bust nothing gets done

If I had bet on either UK sorting this out, or UK failing miserably to fix this stuff, I'm all in on the former. 

So you don't describe any path to anything but HPI

[Social Justice League]

Debtors are the ones who are desperate imo. Who borrows created out of thin air fiat over a 30 or 40 year term without adding up how much they actually pay back over the term?

Someone who doesn't know how APR works?

[Huggy]

11 hours ago, fellow said:

Homeowner pain as major banks hike mortgage rates

"Homeowners" will be fine

Mortgageowners less so.

[Locke]

12 hours ago, Quid Game said:

There’s not a single person in my social circle who I know is bricking it about rates.

No one I know voted for him!

I know people who live in perfectly ordinary houses whose mortgages are set to double. Double! They can afford it (for now), but there are going to be serious downstream effects of the slaughter in consumer spending.

12 hours ago, Quid Game said:

We’re planning our holiday to Japan later in the year. Mates off to Barbados, Europe etc etc

In some ways, Stewy is right. People do give up on building a future when they have to run faster and faster just to stay still. Why bother? Just blow it on a holiday.

13 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

We are not all about to give up our houses for 1/2 the price, due to a small rate rise here or there.

If rates were to go to 10% the majority will just increase their term or make cut backs. 

You don't have to sell your house for there to be a crash.

If you're unfortunate enough to have bought a place which goes underwater, but fortunate enough to be able to ride it out for a decade or more without having to sell, then you're ok (although you'll still have a lost financial decade).

Fine.

But there are people who aren't in that position and will get fcuked by having bought a house at the wrong time and having to sell for whatever reason.

This or that rate change is neither here nor there. The fact is, that the financial system is totally unsustainable. There are no safe exits remaining. Unfortunately, housing became tangled up in that due to becoming a financial instrument via mortgages.

It is possible that the collapse of the banking system makes houses affordable to average workers.

It is also possible that we move to a neo-feudal state where ownership is based on legacy wealth and everyone else is merely a serf/renter. This Orwellian nightmare is what will happen if governments do somehow manage to pull off their emergency landing "Great Reset".

House prices are a symptom of the disease, not a cause.

[scottbeard]

13 hours ago, Quid Game said:

There’s not a single person in my social circle who I know is bricking it about rates. It never comes up in conversation. We’re planning our holiday to Japan later in the year. Mates off to Barbados, Europe etc etc. Depends on your group I guess. When are you going to give up on predictions? 

Do you have a social circle who are actually honest about their true problems?

You tend not to hear a marriage is in trouble until they break up, or that finances are stretched until the house is on the market.

Rather you get the "instragram" version of people's lives that is all icing and no cake.

[Hullabaloo82]

11 hours ago, Pebbles said:

Time to save this thread in the pile of previous ones over the last 25 years. This place is littered with posters claiming the end is here for hpi. For the record I think this thread will be as accurate and correct as the other 300.

Almost certainly correct. This is a giant nothing burger just like the previous 1800 breathless threads along the lines of "banks tweak mortgages by a fraction of a % off the back of some minor news snippet because they too are making it up as they go along". 

If base rates go up again after all this, then we're talking house price crash. That is going to change sentiment completely and people will panic. As it stands though, majority seem to think it's "when" not "if" rates go down and that is basically all it takes to drive the market. 

[Tony_Teacake]

49 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Do you have a social circle who are actually honest about their true problems?

You tend not to hear a marriage is in trouble until they break up, or that finances are stretched until the house is on the market.

Rather you get the "instragram" version of people's lives that is all icing and no cake.

It was only a couple of months ago Quid Game was talking about getting a lodger in to pay for his new kitchen. His tripped himself up again 🤣 😂 

[Sackboii]

And another from Michael Lambert. He seems to agree, almost to the day. He's a boomer (but I won't hold that against him..) but is quite funny. Some patience required however..

 

[Quid Game]

On 4/23/2024 at 10:28 AM, Tony_Teacake said:

It was only a couple of months ago Quid Game was talking about getting a lodger in to pay for his new kitchen. His tripped himself up again 🤣 😂 

You’re obsessed with trying to push a look at this struggling homeowner narrative hey. As was explained to you at the time, it’s easy money, it’ll pay for things around the house so why not. I’ve got a load of pre-vetted colleagues to choose from if I do decide to do so, so it’s not even like you can say well just you wait until they smash the place up or don’t pay the rent. Tell you what, I’ll do you a special HPC rate if you’d rather rent your bed sit from me as opposed to whoever you do at the moment? I’m throwing in free sky and Apple Music too alongside access to the garden gym. PM me.  

[frederico]

House prices have been mostly rising for decades now, why should that change?

Well all the rises have been driven by risky lending and ultra low rates. We no longer have ultra low rates, we have instead fear and uncertainty. We have an inert government delivering sound bites and the only real opposition doing the same. Would you invest a lot of money now unless it was a no brainer? Sure a few will, but it’s not a very attractive environment for long term investment.

So there are possibly a couple of things that drive house prices today, employment and what the banks are prepared to lend.

Both have got to be on a knife edge, the bbc et al keep hoping rates will drop and say what good news it is, but how long can this be sustained?

@Stewy talks a good talk but it’s the walk that matters. Time will tell, 

[frederico]

1 minute ago, Quid Game said:

You’re obsessed with trying to push a look at this struggling homeowner narrative hey. As was explained to you at the time, it’s easy money, it’ll pay for things around the house so why not. I’ve got a load of pre-vetted colleagues to choose from if I do decide to do so, so it’s not even like you can say well just you wait until they smash the place up or don’t pay the rent. Tell you what, I’ll do you a special HPC rate if you’d rather rent your bed sit from me as opposed to whoever you do at the moment? I’m throwing in free sky and Apple Music too alongside access to the garden gym. PM me.  

Only desperate or extremely lonely people take in lodgers, it’s a sign of regression.

[Quid Game]

On 4/23/2024 at 9:36 AM, scottbeard said:

Do you have a social circle who are actually honest about their true problems?

You tend not to hear a marriage is in trouble until they break up, or that finances are stretched until the house is on the market.

Rather you get the "instragram" version of people's lives that is all icing and no cake.

The point is that it’s just not something that ever comes up in conversation. I know a few of them well enough of course to have deeper chats, but no, unlike others on this forum I’m not going to profess to knowing intimate details about their financial situations. What I do know is that none of them are moving or cutting back on dinners out with me or holidays abroad.

[Quid Game]

Just now, frederico said:

Only desperate or extremely lonely people take in lodgers, it’s a sign of regression.

How so? I rented rooms with many people over the years before buying. Had some great times. First house I lived in was a 6 bedder in Wimbledon where the owners lived downstairs and we all had the run of the top two floors. Some of the most epic parties and fun times I’ve ever had, and the owners joined in fully. Not looking for that personally now if I did rent a room out, but as per other response I have a group of very sensible youngsters to choose from whose careers all depend on not being idiots. 

[frederico]

1 minute ago, Quid Game said:

The point is that it’s just not something that ever comes up in conversation. I know a few of them well enough of course to have deeper chats, but no, unlike others on this forum I’m not going to profess to knowing intimate details about their financial situations. What I do know is that none of them are moving or cutting back on dinners out with me or holidays abroad.

It’s a mask, all of it, it would be highly unusual if you got the slightest whiff of bad finances or anything else.

Don’t even think about other people’s finances, all will become clear eventually and even then it will be worse than you imagine.

I have seen it all with what used to be close family.

[frederico]

1 minute ago, Quid Game said:

How so? I rented rooms with many people over the years before buying. Had some great times. First house I lived in was a 6 bedder in Wimbledon where the owners lived downstairs and we all had the run of the top two floors. Some of the most epic parties and fun times I’ve ever had, and the owners joined in fully. Not looking for that personally now if I did rent a room out, but as per other response I have a group of very sensible youngsters to choose from whose careers all depend on not being idiots. 

Nah, I’ve lodged in a few places when I was a lot younger, in hindsight people who take in lodgers are not normal. They’re bloody weird.

[Quid Game]

16 minutes ago, frederico said:

Nah, I’ve lodged in a few places when I was a lot younger, in hindsight people who take in lodgers are not normal. They’re bloody weird.

Sounds like you may have been in the budget end of the spectrum then as I have nothing but great memories. Anyhow, getting into a back and forth on here about how weird I may be for renting a room in a house is beyond pointless. @Tony_Teacake will be itching to chime in I’m sure with something along the lines of we can see through your desperation and you’re going to lose your house. Over to you both. 

[cdd]

30 minutes ago, Quid Game said:

The point is that it’s just not something that ever comes up in conversation. I know a few of them well enough of course to have deeper chats, but no, unlike others on this forum I’m not going to profess to knowing intimate details about their financial situations. What I do know is that none of them are moving or cutting back on dinners out with me or holidays abroad.

Plenty of people about who will spend beyond what they really should, just to keep up their "image".

Perhaps that's some of your friends, or perhaps not. There's no way for us to know.

[frederico]

5 minutes ago, Quid Game said:

Sounds like you may have been in the budget end of the spectrum then as I have nothing but great memories. Anyhow, getting into a back and forth on here about how weird I may be for renting a room in a house is beyond pointless. @Tony_Teacake will be itching to chime in I’m sure with something along the lines of we can see through your desperation and you’re going to lose your house. Over to you both. 

High end lodging, hmm, budget end lodging, didn’t know there was such a thing, I just went to the places my then workplace recommended.

But yes pointless subject 

[Huggy]

36 minutes ago, frederico said:

Both have got to be on a knife edge, the bbc et al keep hoping rates will drop and say what good news it is, but how long can this be sustained?

They literally have articles titled "When will interest rates come down?" these overleveraged journos are that petrified of normality.

I'm sure 2 grand a month was affordable for their hutch in "Media City" during the bailout times. Now, along with 29,000 people every week this year, their new rates drop on the door mat

Is Big Jay P going to bail them out this time? Hell of a dice roll to put a 6 figure bet on.

[frederico]

On 23/04/2024 at 09:58, Hullabaloo82 said:

Almost certainly correct. This is a giant nothing burger just like the previous 1800 breathless threads along the lines of "banks tweak mortgages by a fraction of a % off the back of some minor news snippet because they too are making it up as they go along". 

If base rates go up again after all this, then we're talking house price crash. That is going to change sentiment completely and people will panic. As it stands though, majority seem to think it's "when" not "if" rates go down and that is basically all it takes to drive the market. 

The elephants in the room are interest rates and inflation.

A few years ago, before Covid one my then esteemed company mouthpieces gave a presentation to us union representatives basically saying they couldn’t afford the pension because rates were very low and would stay that way.

I got shouted down by both sides of the table for daring to suggest that the anomaly might be the low rates. It didn’t matter because Covid gave them the perfect excuse to chop the pension.

So no one knows what rates will do in the future simply because of the crazy stuff that has happened in the last 20 years, however 5% is probably nearer normality.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

56 minutes ago, frederico said:

House prices have been mostly rising for decades now, why should that change?

 

 

[Tony_Teacake]

1 hour ago, Quid Game said:

You’re obsessed with trying to push a look at this struggling homeowner narrative hey. As was explained to you at the time, it’s easy money, it’ll pay for things around the house so why not. I’ve got a load of pre-vetted colleagues to choose from if I do decide to do so, so it’s not even like you can say well just you wait until they smash the place up or don’t pay the rent. Tell you what, I’ll do you a special HPC rate if you’d rather rent your bed sit from me as opposed to whoever you do at the moment? I’m throwing in free sky and Apple Music too alongside access to the garden gym. PM me.  

With Apple music being thrown in you can probably add a extra £100 a month on the rent.

You are obviously not that flush if you need to take in a lodger. 

I rest my case.

[Badhairday]

On 23/04/2024 at 00:57, cdd said:

If this thread is right or not doesn't matter.

What does matter, is that decades of rampant HPI, with houses being one of the best investments, is hopefully coming to an end.

Why? Because of higher rates? Of course not, not by itself.

Though it will take time, it is becoming recognised that houses being used as investments for the haves, at the expense of the have nots, while being a primary contributor to rising inequality, is not good for society.

So therefore, anyone betting on the next decade and beyond looking like the past several decades, is probably going to lose.

I had my property valued in 2014. It is now worth exactly the same. Certainly in my neck of London, prices have gone nowhere in the last 10 years.