HousePriceTooHigh Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Labour elected 2024, ongoing HPC / house price slide plus mother of all recessions brings them down in 2025/2026? Seems possible to me look at Bori and his huge majority,,,,............................ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, HousePriceTooHigh said: Labour elected 2024, ongoing HPC / house price slide plus mother of all recessions brings them down in 2025/2026? Seems possible to me look at Bori and his huge majority,,,,............................ Boris's majority will be lost, but over 5 years. Chance of labour winning in 2024 and leaving office in 2025 is 0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 My thoughts are a VERY close race, i think Tory win.....but like John Major in 1992 it will in fact be a major loss. Weighting it up i guess i like Labour win, just to finish them off for 15 years or so. Either way, the days of "buying votes" will come to an end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debtlessmanc Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Maghull Mike said: My thoughts are a VERY close race, i think Tory win.....but like John Major in 1992 it will in fact be a major loss. Weighting it up i guess i like Labour win, just to finish them off for 15 years or so. Either way, the days of "buying votes" will come to an end Bizarrely - what happens in Israel/Palestine will probably decide who gets elected in the U.K. how on earth did we arrive at this? Edited November 13, 2023 by debtlessmanc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armus Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Unlikely, they’ll just blame it on “13 years of Tory failure”, which is already their catchphrase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HomeAlone2 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 I can't imagine why any party would want to be in power over the next few years. Winning the next general election is the ultimate poisoned challace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Necessities Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 The Tories have done a good job of making "13 years of Tory failure" not only a catchphrase, but also substantially true. Although I'd replace "of Tory failure" with "of this sub-Benny-Hill farcical Tory sh*tshow" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said: Bizarrely - what happens in Israel/Palestine will probably decide who gets elected in the U.K. how on earth did we arrive at this? What do you mean by that? If the war keeps going and Labour end up looking like Jeremy Corbyn they will lose? Labour were in the driving seat, the ME situation has messed them up. But Sunak has done nothing to capitalise. With todays reshuffle, it is almost like he wants to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 RE: recession and hpc. If Labour had a majority why would they leave? Unless it was a small majority that kept getting whittled away by resignations etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 45 minutes ago, reddog said: What do you mean by that? If the war keeps going and Labour end up looking like Jeremy Corbyn they will lose? Labour were in the driving seat, the ME situation has messed them up. But Sunak has done nothing to capitalise. With todays reshuffle, it is almost like he wants to lose. If the Israelis/Americans continue their murderous assault on Palestine then Iran will be forced to intervene. The very first thing the Iranians will do is close the straits of Hormuz, effectively blockading the transport of Saudi oil to the rest of the world. $300bbl oil would be game over for the United States and its vassal states in Europe. Even surrendering the Ukraine to Putin wouldn't help. Jeremy Corbyn was right about everything btw. Including the jew supremacists in Israel and Washington and the men of Epshtein Island. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 The recession will be earlier rather than later. Whether they get forgiven by the electorate by the time of the next GE is another question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debtlessmanc Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, reddog said: What do you mean by that? If the war keeps going and Labour end up looking like Jeremy Corbyn they will lose? Labour were in the driving seat, the ME situation has messed them up. But Sunak has done nothing to capitalise. With todays reshuffle, it is almost like he wants to lose. Keir starmers wife is Jewish, this will be a problem for some Muslim voters and politicians. If he is removed - disaster, as the silent majority will not vote for a party that is antisemitic its very complex- but a total minefield for labour. but if you side with terrorists who attack a neighbour were on earth are going with that? The real IRA massacres school kids from across the Irish border with the Irish govts backing? People do not think through the implications on an international level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debtlessmanc Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) 18 minutes ago, zugzwang said: If the Israelis/Americans continue their murderous assault on Palestine then Iran will be forced to intervene. The very first thing the Iranians will do is close the straits of Hormuz, effectively blockading the transport of Saudi oil to the rest of the world. $300bbl oil would be game over for the United States and its vassal states in Europe. Even surrendering the Ukraine to Putin wouldn't help. Jeremy Corbyn was right about everything btw. Including the jew supremacists in Israel and Washington and the men of Epshtein Island. The us is the worlds biggest producer of oil. Corbyn was right the same way that Tony Benn was right. They were right that the capitalist west was selfish and exploited others. But then we import 50% of our food- do you really want to mess with that?! Starve for the international worker- no one will vote for that. Edited November 13, 2023 by debtlessmanc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, HousePriceTooHigh said: Seems possible to me look at Bori and his huge majority,,,,............................ Boris only had a reasonable majority with the electorate. Within the Conservatives there were, and still are, lots of factions and infighting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 19 minutes ago, TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack said: Boris only had a reasonable majority with the electorate. Within the Conservatives there were, and still are, lots of factions and infighting. Boris was elected to "get Brexit done". That was the only reason he got his huge majority and once it was done, the Brexit coalition fell apart and it was back to politics as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) 54 minutes ago, zugzwang said: The very first thing the Iranians will do is close the straits of Hormuz, effectively blockading the transport of Saudi oil to the rest of the world. What would they blockade it with? A few Iranian versions of the Moskva to start with maybe, and then what? Edited November 13, 2023 by Huggy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greater Fool Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Huggy said: What would they blockade it with? A few Iranian versions of the Moskva to start with maybe, and then what? With two US carrier groups in the area any "blockade" will be very short lived. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 33 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said: Keir starmers wife is Jewish, this will be a problem for some Muslim voters and politicians. If he is removed - disaster, as the silent majority will not vote for a party that is antisemitic I think you underestimate how little younger generations care about Js. The Holocaust was mostly a Boomer thing, whereas kids today make memes about the Auschwitz Rollercoaster of Death and discuss how many ovens and how much coal would be required to burn six million bodies during WWII. And that's before you even consider the Muslim kids. Given that the Tories are the Boomer party and Labour have been trying to motivate young voters to vote for them, I'm guessing it wouldn't make much difference and could be beneficial. I think a bigger problem may be that Labour not only supported the recent Internet spy bill, but actually want to Spy Harder. I don't think kids will be eager to get out and vote for a party which wants the government spying on everything they do on their phones. But back on the original topic, if they do get elected with a workable majority, I can't see them quitting before the next election. If there is one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debtlessmanc Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) 43 minutes ago, MarkG said: I think you underestimate how little younger generations care about Js. The Holocaust was mostly a Boomer thing, whereas kids today make memes about the Auschwitz Rollercoaster of Death and discuss how many ovens and how much coal would be required to burn six million bodies during WWII. And that's before you even consider the Muslim kids. Given that the Tories are the Boomer party and Labour have been trying to motivate young voters to vote for them, I'm guessing it wouldn't make much difference and could be beneficial. I think a bigger problem may be that Labour not only supported the recent Internet spy bill, but actually want to Spy Harder. I don't think kids will be eager to get out and vote for a party which wants the government spying on everything they do on their phones. But back on the original topic, if they do get elected with a workable majority, I can't see them quitting before the next election. If there is one. So back to Hitler it is thanks for letting me know. Must dust off my swastikas… Anyway boomers dominate the voting demographic f u. also Israel has nukes but of a risk eh? Edited November 13, 2023 by debtlessmanc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 11 minutes ago, Huggy said: What would they blockade it with? A few Iranian versions of the Moskva to start with maybe, and then what? Iran has modern anti-ship missiles and kamikaze drones. They might not be able to sink a carrier with its hundreds of defensive missiles and guns, but they can certainly wreck tankers. I don't think they'd do it unless it was coordinated with the Saudis, but they can if they want to. It's probably also worth noting that in a swarm attack the US would have to resort to firing $10,000,000 missiles at $10,000 drones. That gets expensive real fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 4 hours ago, Armus said: Unlikely, they’ll just blame it on “13 years of Tory failure”, which is already their catchphrase. Which in fact would be true in every possible way. Never, at least since WW2 have we had a full 13 years of regression and zero of social or economic progress. I cant imagine how difficult it is going to be to undo all the tory misery and mayhem the Tories have gifted us, and to top it off with the turd on the cake, Brexit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 2 hours ago, debtlessmanc said: So back to Hitler it is thanks for letting me know. Must dust off my swastikas… Anyway boomers dominate the voting demographic f u. also Israel has nukes but of a risk eh? Boomers do not by any measure dominate the voting demographic and to top it off a large and increasing minority (nearly 45%) do not vote tory, ever. And those that do vote tory (god hate them) are more than counterbalanced by younger people who cant be arsed voting. ie non voters have effectively voted tory governments in over and over. https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-kingdom/2023/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debtlessmanc Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, steve99 said: Boomers do not by any measure dominate the voting demographic and to top it off a large and increasing minority (nearly 45%) do not vote tory, ever. And those that do vote tory (god hate them) are more than counterbalanced by younger people who cant be arsed voting. ie non voters have effectively voted tory governments in over and over. https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-kingdom/2023/ One of the aspects of the Brexit vote was the enormous turn out. Anecdotally people who had never voted in decades showed up. Give people a reason and a potential govt backing terrorists is a reason. Edited November 14, 2023 by debtlessmanc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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