Nationwide Nov -1.4%

[Up the spout]

8 hours ago, Mark1973_5 said:

The millennial generation are quite comfortable with debt that never ends. For many, that's how they will pay for their time at university - a few will pay it off, the rest either make token payments until it time-expires or they don't earn enough to even do that. The numbers printed on their annual statement bear no relation to their day to day income and outgoings.

Why would they take a different approach to a mortgage? Those that signed up to a repayment mortgage in the last decade will just switch to interest only, then they'll take any repayment holidays that their bank will let them have, then they'll push the redemption date out to 30, then 35 years, then they'll rent out a spare room, then they'll tighten their belts and give up the Netflix and avocado toasts ... there's plenty of strategies available to them to remain solvent, which is all they really need to do to get from one year to the next. The obsession with being debt-free is an HPC peculiarity.

Meanwhile, inflation will run wild, which means they are getting good pay rises, and with 20-30 working years left ahead of them, they will have time for the effects of this to compound. Eventually, they'll end up in the same position their boomer grandparents did ... having bought houses when they were (relatively) cheap (as seen from the perspective of 2050 nominal  prices) and having let inflation do the heavy lifting in reducing the burden of their mortgage to a point where their pension lump sum will pay it off.

So explain to me again - why on earth would anyone choose to liquidate their finances and crystallise the losses that the size of the falls being predicted here would entail?

That all makes sense - logical, well-thought out, coherent - but it's missing an important (not massively) point, which is that interest rates on debt have been historically very low for the last 20 years, and falling for even longer. Inflation has been historically very low for 30 years, and falling for over 40! The average house price in 1900 was just under £49,000, in 2017 terms, while the price of an average house was £51,800 in 2017 terms back in 1952.

So, I don't think houses are (relatively) cheap however they're measured. 

[Former postman]

11 hours ago, TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack said:

You sound like a colleague who has always maintained that it makes no difference to him whether prices go up or down.
Probably because he has been in the same house for over thirty years after buying it for about 1.5 times his current salary.

No. I'm a 35 year old postman who rents privately.

[BaldED]

5 hours ago, sta100 said:

No this is what happens when HPI buffoons like you wreck the country.

 

The guy is a colossal bellend. He has some sort of narcissistic personality issue.

[Simples]

[Orb]

10 minutes ago, Simples said:

I wonder if the Peppa Pig episodes will begin indoctrinating kids into the path of righteousness?

"now remember kids, your capital is at risk - house prices can go down as well as up"

[Timm]

37 minutes ago, Orb said:

I wonder if the Peppa Pig episodes will begin indoctrinating kids into the path of righteousness?

"now remember kids, your capital is at risk - house prices can go down as well as up"

😄

TBH, I can imagine an episode where Daddy Pig saves money by switching to a negative amortisation mortgage and they all have a lovely time doing lots of fun stuff. And then they lose the house and have to sleep in the car, which rolls down the hill into a bog.

[scottbeard]

58 minutes ago, Simples said:

If this was Jeopardy I'll take "Things that are annoying" for $1,000.

[henry the king]

18 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

House prices up 30% in 18 months... House prices fall -1.4% and total ####ing panic breaks loose 

 

Its like deep down people knew house-prices were insane but bought before they missed out. 

Down 3.6% now Count! Already! And that is based on 3.2% mortgage rates or something. And we know they are actually 5.5%+

[Timm]

16 minutes ago, henry the king said:

Down 3.6% now Count! Already! And that is based on 3.2% mortgage rates or something. And we know they are actually 5.5%+

And in real terms?

[henry the king]

21 minutes ago, Timm said:

And in real terms?

Vs wages my guess would be down about 6%. And we are just getting started. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by henry the king

[80percentfalls]

18 hours ago, Mark1973_5 said:

The millennial generation are quite comfortable with debt that never ends. For many, that's how they will pay for their time at university

 

The former generation who could buy houses on 2.5x single income and had free university left this world behind them, where you need 4.5x double salaries and have 10K uni fees.

YOU should have been on the streets when tution fees were raised from 0 to 1, 1 to 3, or from 3 to 10K.

 

Millenials were not even born when that happened.

Millenials were teens or kids when we had 2008 crash.

 

Its YOU who should have done something, not the millenials.

 

But dont worry, “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”

If its not clear, current millenials in their twenties will be the strong who cleans up the mess.

[Clarky Cat]

15 minutes ago, 80percentfalls said:

 

The former generation who could buy houses on 2.5x single income and had free university left this world behind them, where you need 4.5x double salaries and have 10K uni fees.

YOU should have been on the streets when tution fees were raised from 0 to 1, 1 to 3, or from 3 to 10K.

 

Millenials were not even born when that happened.

Millenials were teens or kids when we had 2008 crash.

 

Its YOU who should have done something, not the millenials.

 

But dont worry, “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”

If its not clear, current millenials in their twenties will be the strong who cleans up the mess.

I think you need to check the definition of millennial.

Millennials were most definitely the ones protesting about tuition fee increases from £1-3k ("top-up fees" at the time). The youngest millennial would have been 12 at the time of the 2008 crash, but the oldest would have been 27 and quite possibly mortgaged at that point. 

[Timm]

44 minutes ago, henry the king said:

Vs wages my guess would be down about 6%.

That's the sensible way of looking at things.

But actual real prices factor in price inflation, not wage inflation.

I would not be surprised if the next home.com hpi index shows real falls of 15% or more.

44 minutes ago, henry the king said:

And we are just getting started. 

Indeed.

Although real falls started some time ago...

[80percentfalls]

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=cambridge&startmonth=06&startyear=2022&endmonth=12&endyear=2022

 

I see this in all big cities, SUPPLY GOING DOWN, in cambridge last time supply was lower was 3 months ago in september.

 

Almost at July level.

 

(Median price is up 10% as well since June)

 

Where is the crash?

[Casual-observer]

1 minute ago, 80percentfalls said:

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=cambridge&startmonth=06&startyear=2022&endmonth=12&endyear=2022

 

I see this in all big cities, SUPPLY GOING DOWN, in cambridge last time supply was lower was 3 months ago in september.

 

Almost at July level.

 

(Median price is up 10% as well since June)

 

Where is the crash?

It’s coming up to Christmas in fairness, I suspect my are thinking about bowing out of the market hoping the economic situation improves

[80percentfalls]

1 minute ago, Casual-observer said:

It’s coming up to Christmas in fairness, I suspect my are thinking about bowing out of the market hoping the economic situation improves

Yeah. But then SURREY

2019 Aug-Dec: -3%
2022 Aug-Dec: -2%

The current falls are also STANDARD christmas period.

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?county=surrey&startmonth=08&startyear=2019&endmonth=12&endyear=2019

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?county=surrey&startmonth=08&startyear=2022&endmonth=12&endyear=2022

[mynamehere]

very different numbers in edinburgh so not convinced there is much to be divined from these kinds of dives

[80percentfalls]

1 minute ago, mynamehere said:

very different numbers in edinburgh so not convinced there is much to be divined from these kinds of dives

HPCers told me prices will fall in rich SE, so I am posting those numbers.

Edinburgh is in another country.

[mynamehere]

There will 

1 minute ago, 80percentfalls said:

HPCers told me prices will fall in rich SE, so I am posting those numbers.

Edinburgh is in another country.

There will be massive variance even within London

And edinburgh is basically england

Edited December 4, 2022 by mynamehere

[dances with sheeple]

On 02/12/2022 at 18:16, 80percentfalls said:

 

The former generation who could buy houses on 2.5x single income and had free university left this world behind them, where you need 4.5x double salaries and have 10K uni fees.

YOU should have been on the streets when tution fees were raised from 0 to 1, 1 to 3, or from 3 to 10K.

 

Millenials were not even born when that happened.

Millenials were teens or kids when we had 2008 crash.

 

Its YOU who should have done something, not the millenials.

 

But dont worry, “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”

If its not clear, current millenials in their twenties will be the strong who cleans up the mess.

Is there an app for that?

[rantnrave]

When sold prices start dipping, it usually brings forward ambitious sellers still hoping to get the top prices they saw earlier. They price at the top of the market - then rarely get a sale because they've missed the boat. Very predictable behaviour which explains why sold and asking prices can diverge.

Supply is well up in areas I'm watching - although the rapid increases in stock across Sept and Oct have stalled. Again, predictable as Christmas approaches.

Next flurry of new stock will be in the Spring - by which point estate agents will be in urgent need of revenue and so less likely to pander to vendors' delusions of achieving the peak prices of mid '22.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

On 02/12/2022 at 17:37, henry the king said:

Down 3.6% now Count! Already! And that is based on 3.2% mortgage rates or something. And we know they are actually 5.5%+

👍

[80percentfalls]

11 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Next flurry of new stock will be in the Spring

Spring? When gas prices wont matter anymore, boe will start thinking of easing and interest rate support will be out there?

Surely there will be mass sales

[rantnrave]

6 minutes ago, 80percentfalls said:

Spring? When gas prices wont matter anymore, boe will start thinking of easing and interest rate support will be out there?

Surely there will be mass sales

Spring is historically the busiest time of year in the housing market - to do with moving and selling ahead of the start of the school year in September. The factors you've listed will have little impact on what estate agent's call the 'Spring Bounce'.

[Aidan Ap Word]

36 minutes ago, 80percentfalls said:

and interest rate support will be out there

80percentfalls might be right - there is a statistical possibility he is.

But if interest rates return (even) to the rates present during the boiler-room years (2003/2004):

then the market is toast. And if they return to the 5%/6% mark then even things like the housebulders "discount" schemes (etc) will be obviously meaingless to all but the dimmest of purchasers.

As regards "interest rate support" - obviously I don't know what 80percentfalls has in mind - but I don't see that happening any more than an attempt by the UK Gov to pressure the BoE ... but the BoE is singing to the international markets' songsheet so ... personally I don't think so.