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How are things near you in terms of housing?


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HOLA4410

Looking a lot better than they were 6 months ago. 

Lots of emails through from Zoopla/rightmove with reductions. It had been a while since I browsed by older properties so I just flicked through the pages on rightmove. Lots of properties with multiple reductions, very glad to see. Some odd ones there with no reductions in the past 2/3months that aren't SSTC, still just sitting there.

Unfortunately I just see a government prop coming (as usual) and I'm not expecting this to last long but I really hope it does. I fear the new living wage will send round a wave of pay rises country wide and further inflate away my savings too...

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HOLA4411

I'm in South East London. Prices are still ridiculously high, but it is now noticeable that a few properties here and there are now being reduced by 5-7% to try and get a sale over the line. This wasn't happening at all around 6-12 months ago. I've also noticed houses that were 'sold' are now back on the market at a small discount.

However, there are still a large amount of properties being listed for unrealistic prices, I'm guessing it's homeowners who are in denial and still think just because a property 'down the road' sold for £475k six months ago.... they can now get £500k... because 'house prices always go up by c. 5% every 6 months init'

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1 hour ago, Housepricecrash91 said:

I'm in South East London. Prices are still ridiculously high, but it is now noticeable that a few properties here and there are now being reduced by 5-7% to try and get a sale over the line. This wasn't happening at all around 6-12 months ago. I've also noticed houses that were 'sold' are now back on the market at a small discount.

However, there are still a large amount of properties being listed for unrealistic prices, I'm guessing it's homeowners who are in denial and still think just because a property 'down the road' sold for £475k six months ago.... they can now get £500k... because 'house prices always go up by c. 5% every 6 months init'

To be fair its hard to find much below £500k in London that isn't a dump/cr**py flat to be fair including even in some of the less desirable areas.

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New listings, reductions and relistings increased markedly last couple of weeks.

EA's starting to get desperate and we're now getting 2 or 3 calls a week, just 3 months ago this wasn't happening and hasn't happened for years.

Still plenty of denial in vendor land, had a call from an EA about a new listing which we'd seen, it is a hugely overpriced property being flipped, (bought end of 2021). Lots of properties up for sale/SSTC on the same street to gauge against and it's about 10% above peak SDLT craziness. Simply told the EA we would be interested, but price is "ridiculous", EA agreed but its what the vendor thinks its worth.

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Seeing consistently big reductions in St Albans. I met up with friends over the weekend and one who is looking to buy said his 5 year fix deal at ~2% is valid until end of dec. Think we need to wait until the new year before all the <5% deals are no longer in the market.

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3 minutes ago, nero120 said:

Seeing consistently big reductions in St Albans. I met up with friends over the weekend and one who is looking to buy said his 5 year fix deal at ~2% is valid until end of dec. Think we need to wait until the new year before all the <5% deals are no longer in the market.

Absolutely. We had this discussion in another thread and people were disagreeing with me that the rise in mortgage rates won't be in much of the data yet.

We need the older, lower rates to filter out of the "buyers pool" of mortgages. That is when you get the best price drops, when the collective mortgage rates of prospective buyers are highest. ATM the average is being dragged down by these mortgages agreed months ago.

We are only a few months from seeing most of these low rate mortgages out of the market though. The HF/NW indexes released early Jan/Feb should show a lot.

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10 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

New listings, reductions and relistings increased markedly last couple of weeks.

EA's starting to get desperate and we're now getting 2 or 3 calls a week, just 3 months ago this wasn't happening and hasn't happened for years.

Still plenty of denial in vendor land, had a call from an EA about a new listing which we'd seen, it is a hugely overpriced property being flipped, (bought end of 2021). Lots of properties up for sale/SSTC on the same street to gauge against and it's about 10% above peak SDLT craziness. Simply told the EA we would be interested, but price is "ridiculous", EA agreed but its what the vendor thinks its worth.

This was always the case, people will always try to rip people off, irrespective of the state of the housing market. 

I remember a place in 2019 that was originally listed at 620k or something. It sold for 450k in the end I think. The essentially hoped to catch a moron to pay 620k. It was only ever worth 450k.

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It's going to be very regional, and sadly for me, I'm stuck in an area where stock has fallen from about 390 in october to 350 today. Mostly lemons and any new stock is usually relisted lemons.

I think the only way to really know what's going on in your area is to undertake as many viewings as possible and be actively making offers, then you get a real sense of what is going on with current prices, as you have actual knoweldge of what kind of offers are being accepted. 

I'm not offering so have less knowledge, but anything half decent at higher end still going to closing and sealed bids.

Lower end looks a bit more like a standoff.

Overall asking prices do seem to be softening a bit, maybe 5% down. However desirable higher end stuff still being priced at peak and selling.

 

 

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1 minute ago, henry the king said:

Absolutely. We had this discussion in another thread and people were disagreeing with me that the rise in mortgage rates won't be in much of the data yet.

We need the older, lower rates to filter out of the "buyers pool" of mortgages. That is when you get the best price drops, when the collective mortgage rates of prospective buyers are highest. ATM the average is being dragged down by these mortgages agreed months ago.

We are only a few months from seeing most of these low rate mortgages out of the market though. The HF/NW indexes released early Jan/Feb should show a lot.

Indeed. And by then the base rate should be at least 3.5%, winter will be in full swing and perhaps even the recession will be kicking in and companies will start mass redundancies. The headwinds coming for the property market are about to hit full on.

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33 minutes ago, nero120 said:

Indeed. And by then the base rate should be at least 3.5%, winter will be in full swing and perhaps even the recession will be kicking in and companies will start mass redundancies. The headwinds coming for the property market are about to hit full on.

And prices are already falling according to RICS, HF, NW, flat according to LR (which lags more) and falling according to Rightmove (I think - although asking prices matters least).

So prices are already falling nicely.

And that is with manipulation of house price indexes from house builders, who instead of reducing prices are offering vouchers and £15k mortgage payments over 2 years. 

But it will be from about now that things change. Will still take a few more months for that to fully show up in the data though. But we should see the first green shoots in the data released in the next few weeks. (even more so than the data which has already shown falls)

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My RM Query went from 18 in June to 51 today, most of which are huses returning to the market.

A few folks trying to catch a falling knife at reductions of 1% to 2% per time ... (eg: 5k reduction on a 500k asking).

Normal results for my query (in terms of properties on the list) is likely - anedote/not evidence - to have been 80 to 120 against the criteria I am using.

The relative absence of forced sellers (this area is chock full of the "paid it off years ago" boomers) and forebearance (for the few folks who have been able to buy in 2019/2020) ... not holding my breath then.

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My search criteria on Rightmove is quite spercific so I'm not seeing the big picture but for what I'm looking for there's been a slow increase in the number of properties on the market.  I'd see an average of 20 to 30 pre Covid which dropped to three when things were going crazy last year and the first half of this year.  Now there's 16 with the oldest being on there since August and September but the rest came on in late October.  One or two reductions but nothing much.

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