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Grumio

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  1. Could somebody please explain how 10 year rates are linked to the base rate? Is it possible for 10y to increase and the fed/boe not to increase base rates? Also, there seems to be consensus (at least on here) that what the fed does, the boe must follow. Why then, if we are playing 2nd fiddle, are UK gilts lower than US ones? The EU seems to follow a more logical pattern (Germany has the lower rates and smaller/weaker/less economically sound ones have higher rates). Apologies for all the questions!.
  2. Does anybody know how the mpc works? For example, if there are nine members and they vote as follows: +0.5%: 3 votes +0.25%: 2 votes no change: 4 votes. What happens? No change is the largest voting block, but most members voted for a rise of some description...
  3. I think they'll bottle it and keep it at 0.75 %. Mind you, I thought that the last two times and was pleasantly surprised when they raised them.
  4. If the real economy were still growing like in 50/60s then I believe interest rates would be higher and the stock market would be offering better returns. Final salary pensions would be more affordable and people wouldn't feel the need to invest in housing to provide a pension. I believe actions like Gordon brown removing dividend tax relief may have accelerated the demise of dB pensions, but the writing was on the wall long before then.
  5. Apologies if it came across as bomber bashing... It was supposed to be humorous rather than judgemental. I can't really blame any individual for the current situation. My view is that after a few decades of exploiting the world's resources and living luxurious lifestyles, we have now hit the limits that this planet can support. We have a slow grind back down to subsistance level farming (assuming the world can support that). Boomers happened to be born at the best time, but I don't think any action of that generation or Gen X or millennials can fight the laws of entropy and resource depletion. I guess we've all got to play best with the hand that we've been given.
  6. That's brilliant! Similar to the analogy that millennials have joined the game of monopoly half way through after the boomers have bought up all the properties. Oh, and you don't get £ 1500 given to you as you start, it's now a loan with 12 % interest
  7. Increase NI by 1.25 % and cut income tax by 1 % - another kick in the [email protected] for anybody who has to work for their keep.
  8. I've been a long-time lurker. Decided to get an account so I could join in the discussion. Nothing particular drove me to do this, I've been fed up with high house prices and all it entails for decades now...
  9. I voted to remain, and would do so again were the referendum now. However, I don't think being in/out would make any material difference to the current situation. The western allies appear to be working just as closely with each other as before - I can't see UK leaving having caused any material cracks in the rEU or within NATO
  10. It appears that a lot of things are happening at the moment and it feels a little like 2006/2007. What do you guys think is the biggest risk, the thing that might break first!? House prices (obviously) - rising interest rates will affect affordabiity and cause prices to drop Banking collapse - could interbank lending freeze like it did in 2008? Govt debt - again, affected by rising interest rates and past/future bailouts Corporate insolvencies - high debt leading to mass redundancies? Household spending pulling back leading to a recession? Black swan? Something else?
  11. Glad to see they are follow Andrew Bailey's advice and exercising restraint in remuneration to limit inflation
  12. Genuine question. How can the govt inflate away the debt if the debt is index linked? For that reason I went for higher taxes but in reality I think they'll just keep borrowing into oblivion
  13. Is the new price cap sufficient for energy companies to break even at current gas prices, or is it possible that more companies will go bust in the future (presuming wholesale prices stay the same)?
  14. At what point does this become self-reinforcing... Ie increasing interest rates least to increased borrowing? This could be what forces the boe to increase rates finally?
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