Halifax Oct '22 -0.4%

[joeda0]

8 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

James might have made up stuff to make lurkers think people are still buying despite of the doom and gloom predictions.

Can you show us any data which shows that no person is buying a single house in the uk?

[joeda0]

12 minutes ago, bvrial said:

Maybe if you stopped coming back after you got banned and used your time wisely you'd have 4 mortga- I mean houses by now  

I am trying to have productive time in the years betwen my hpc sessions, no, no crypto, no stock exchange, no speculating in anything.

 

Now that I dont have to worry about the landlord kicking me out and can deal with other stuff, income seems to be shooting up and have many ideas.

 

Its still not perfect as house is trash and there is still the mortgage to pay off, but likely this is my last hpc forum session ever as my housing problem will be solved before I would come again.

[2buyornot2buy]

1 minute ago, joeda0 said:

 but likely this is my last hpc forum session ever as my housing problem will be solved before I would come again.

It's not an airport my friend. No need to announce your departure. 

Adios hasta luego

[rantnrave]

17 minutes ago, Stjames83 said:

There is no lag. This data reflects mortgage approvals made in October 22, with mortgage rates from October 22.

You clearly believe that - the rest of us don't. I'm sure if you keep repeating it though it will come true.

[rantnrave]

27 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

James might have made up stuff to make lurkers think people are still buying despite of the doom and gloom predictions.

James isn't an idiot, james is a desperate self serving parasitic c*** Jeremy Hunt of a human being.

I think you give him too much credit (as the banks did)

He was celebrating a few months back for putting his hand up to borrow more than anyone else for a house purchase. With news of the economy deteriorating though he's had some niggling doubts that he's not the financial genius he thought he was. A few Google searches about house prices crashing brought him to this site.

Edited November 7, 2022 by rantnrave

[nero120]

@Stjames83  @joeda0 you two need to study this meme carefully, it very much applies to you:

[mynamehere]

1 hour ago, Stjames83 said:

More importantly - I'm glad we could use this thread to finally settle it:

These lender indices do not have a significant lag. 4-5 weeks at most.

So in this case, all of these Halifax approvals came after the mini budget.

 

 Can you link to something more concerete on this?

Lots of facts being thrown around with no supporting evidence at all

[TheCountOfNowhere]

18 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

I think you give him too much credit (as the banks did)

He was celebrating a few months back for putting his hand up to borrow more than anyone else for a house purchase. With news of the economy deteriorating though he's had some niggling doubts that he's not the financial genius he thought he was. A few Google searches about house prices crashing brought him to this site.

Now he's angry ?  I have him blocked so dont follow what he is saying.

it's amazing how many people have borrowed vast sums of money without doing any research.  I blame the media....and the skools.

[rantnrave]

3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

it's amazing how many people have borrowed vast sums of money without doing any research.  I blame the media....and the skools.

Quite. The UK property market six to 12 months ago was screaming "bubble" to anyone bothering to listen.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, rantnrave said:

Quite. The UK property market six to 12 months ago was screaming "bubble" to anyone bothering to listen.

It was, it was clear to see....but the MSM were still pushing it, now Sunake wants to pay peoples mortgages or suppress interest rates.

These people are either evil or insane.

What do people see when they look at this that I didn't

Someone must have thought...this blokes crazy, I'll buy a house.

[2buyornot2buy]

2 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Quite. The UK property market six to 12 months ago was screaming "bubble" to anyone bothering to listen.

The main board has essentially turned into the NI sub from 2007/2008. Influx of random posters joint HPC (its in the name) to tell them prices can't and won't drop. 

The rest for NI is history. 

[mynamehere]

 

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

54 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

It's not an airport my friend. No need to announce your departure. 

Adios hasta luego

 

[Stjames83]

31 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

 

 Can you link to something more concerete on this?

Lots of facts being thrown around with no supporting evidence at all

I assume you already know that it’s based on mortgage approvals, but if not here’s the full methodology:

https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/halifax-house-price-index-nov2020.pdf

In terms of when a rate is “locked in” there seems to be an element of discretion per lender but:

https://www.money.co.uk/mortgages/how-to-apply-for-a-mortgage-in-principle

“If it takes you a while to find a property you want to buy, you might find that the interest rates have changed from when the mortgage in principle was provided”

As mentioned, in my case my AIP contains no rate at all, but the Key Fact illustration from my broker does, together with a disclaimer that it was subject to change. It was not until the offer itself (Santander) that i had 6 months locked in: but it was actually at a very slightly higher rate than the AIP.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

1 hour ago, joeda0 said:

Can you show us any data which shows that no person is buying a single house in the uk?

Bless.

[2buyornot2buy]

4 minutes ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said:

Bless.

A false dichotomy I belive from our friend Joseph. 

[mynamehere]

14 minutes ago, Stjames83 said:

I assume you already know that it’s based on mortgage approvals, but if not here’s the full methodology:

https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/halifax-house-price-index-nov2020.pdf

In terms of when a rate is “locked in” there seems to be an element of discretion per lender but:

https://www.money.co.uk/mortgages/how-to-apply-for-a-mortgage-in-principle

“If it takes you a while to find a property you want to buy, you might find that the interest rates have changed from when the mortgage in principle was provided”

As mentioned, in my case my AIP contains no rate at all, but the Key Fact illustration from my broker does, together with a disclaimer that it was subject to change. It was not until the offer itself (Santander) that i had 6 months locked in: but it was actually at a very slightly higher rate than the AIP.

I called up HSBC to double check. I assure you my AIP rate is locked in to two decimal places, with no house secured. But I of course accept it varies by lender and mortgage type.

Re lag, the graphs I've googled suggest the lag between ons and halifax to be a few weeks, not a few months.

I'd like to see some evidence this index reflects october sales, as some have argued

Edited November 7, 2022 by mynamehere

[Timm]

The following was updated in August 2022 an is as close as we get to both readable and definative:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/about-the-uk-house-price-index/comparing-house-price-indices-in-the-uk

Quote

Nationwide and Halifax indices are based on their own mortgage approvals, which mean they can process the mortgage data immediately and do not have to wait for the receipt of mortgage data from other lenders. This means they are able to publish around 1 week after the reference period.

So the lag for Halifax is 1 - 5.2 weeks after the mortgage offer.

If anyone wants to argue, take it up with the LR. 

Quote

However, as not all approvals are necessarily completed, the Nationwide and Halifax indices may provide a biased estimate of sale prices.

So it will tend to somewhat understate falls in a falling market. And those sales that do go through, may complete some time after.

Edited November 7, 2022 by Timm

[rantnrave]

Here's what Nationwide had to say about their index in the release from the end of April 2020 (ie, five or six weeks into the first Covid lockdown)

https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-was-gaining-momentum-before-the-pandemic-struck-the-uk

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

“Annual house price growth increased to 3.7% in April, up from 3% in March - the fastest pace since February 2017 (when annual growth was 4.5%). There have been month-on-month gains for the last seven months in a row, after taking account of seasonal effects.

“It’s important to note that the impact of the pandemic is not fully captured in this month’s figures. This is because our index is constructed using mortgage approval data, and there is a lag between mortgage applications being submitted and approved.

 “Indeed, c80% of cases in the April sample relate to mortgage applications that commenced prior to the lock-down, and hence before the full extent of the impact of the pandemic became clear.

[mynamehere]

Right, so any post budget 'sales' captured by this index, will be very few in number.

Good news in a sense as it shows the gradual increase in rates to 4% did have an impact, in face of strong sentiment.

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by mynamehere
pre for post

[henry the king]

1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

Here's what Nationwide had to say about their index in the release from the end of April 2020 (ie, five or six weeks into the first Covid lockdown)

https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-was-gaining-momentum-before-the-pandemic-struck-the-uk

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

“Annual house price growth increased to 3.7% in April, up from 3% in March - the fastest pace since February 2017 (when annual growth was 4.5%). There have been month-on-month gains for the last seven months in a row, after taking account of seasonal effects.

“It’s important to note that the impact of the pandemic is not fully captured in this month’s figures. This is because our index is constructed using mortgage approval data, and there is a lag between mortgage applications being submitted and approved.

 “Indeed, c80% of cases in the April sample relate to mortgage applications that commenced prior to the lock-down, and hence before the full extent of the impact of the pandemic became clear.

This is only one of the lags too. The other lag is the mortgage pool changes gradually. 

So there is a lag on the approvals as described above. And there is a lag for more recent (higher) mortgages to become a larger % of the mortgages being used by people actively looking for houses. For example, many rushed in October to make use of mortgages agreed in principle at lower rates from many months ago.

Over the next 3-4 months both of these lags will work out of the system and we will see larger falls.

[Depressedpedro]

2 hours ago, henry the king said:

This is only one of the lags too. The other lag is the mortgage pool changes gradually. 

So there is a lag on the approvals as described above. And there is a lag for more recent (higher) mortgages to become a larger % of the mortgages being used by people actively looking for houses. For example, many rushed in October to make use of mortgages agreed in principle at lower rates from many months ago.

Over the next 3-4 months both of these lags will work out of the system and we will see larger falls.

Exactly, I do wish St James would properly research these things first!

There is indeed a lag, based on when the mortgages were approved. At the moment the lag is around 3-4 months as an average (it has grown a fair amount in the last 12-18 months). So most of the approvals and thus the house price index would be as you say from June-Aug period, probably weighted more towards the first 2/3rds given its a monthly average figure and not what was seen at the end of the month alone. 

To put that into context, a majority of those houses would have been agreed before the energy panic in August 2022, before the rises seen in Oct 22 (obviously), before another 3-5% increase in inflation, before interest rates rose another 1.75% and whilst mortgage rates were still averaging about 3%.

Hard to imagine another other than a fairly sharp downward turn for Q1 and probably Q2 next year.

[scottbeard]

I feel disinclined to speculate on the precise lag in the index data, and more inclined to simply come back in 6-9 months when they say -10% year on year falls 

[Pmax2020]

7 hours ago, Stjames83 said:

There is no lag. This data reflects mortgage approvals made in October 22, with mortgage rates from October 22.

This is completely false. 

It can take several months for a mortgage offer to be finalised and they are often valid for up to 90 days thereafter. Some lenders allow you to lock in the new rate for 180 days but that tends to be for existing customers. 

My remortgage was approved in early November, based on a rate from late August.  

Edited November 7, 2022 by Pmax2020

[Gurgle]

6 hours ago, Stjames83 said:

I assume you already know that it’s based on mortgage approvals, but if not here’s the full methodology:

https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/halifax-house-price-index-nov2020.pdf

In terms of when a rate is “locked in” there seems to be an element of discretion per lender but:

https://www.money.co.uk/mortgages/how-to-apply-for-a-mortgage-in-principle

“If it takes you a while to find a property you want to buy, you might find that the interest rates have changed from when the mortgage in principle was provided”

As mentioned, in my case my AIP contains no rate at all, but the Key Fact illustration from my broker does, together with a disclaimer that it was subject to change. It was not until the offer itself (Santander) that i had 6 months locked in: but it was actually at a very slightly higher rate than the AIP.

 

5 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Here's what Nationwide had to say about their index in the release from the end of April 2020 (ie, five or six weeks into the first Covid lockdown)

https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-was-gaining-momentum-before-the-pandemic-struck-the-uk

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

“Annual house price growth increased to 3.7% in April, up from 3% in March - the fastest pace since February 2017 (when annual growth was 4.5%). There have been month-on-month gains for the last seven months in a row, after taking account of seasonal effects.

“It’s important to note that the impact of the pandemic is not fully captured in this month’s figures. This is because our index is constructed using mortgage approval data, and there is a lag between mortgage applications being submitted and approved.

 “Indeed, c80% of cases in the April sample relate to mortgage applications that commenced prior to the lock-down, and hence before the full extent of the impact of the pandemic became clear.

 

36 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I feel disinclined to speculate on the precise lag in the index data, and more inclined to simply come back in 6-9 months when they say -10% year on year falls 

Both indexes are flawed if they’re based on approvals.  Approvals are not sales.  It might be providing a leading indicator but with the number of buyers pulling out of deals Right now due to cost of living and the looming recession I suspect it’s quite skewed toward the upside of prices.

per @scottbeard YoY -ve is when it gets real for me