curious1 Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Odd this graph shows a different picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewwk Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, mynamehere said: Supply is slowly ticking up but still historically tiny numbers of houses for sale, and unfortunately every half decent property still going pretty much instantly to closing date (sealed and final bids) near me. 1988 called, it wants its dotmatrix graphics back... Edited October 20, 2022 by andrewwk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highcontrast Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 2 hours ago, mynamehere said: unfortunately every half decent property still going pretty much instantly to closing date (sealed and final bids) near me. Haha...no offence but I don't believe that for one second 🤣 Whereabouts in the UK is this? Your posting style reminds me of someone else who "used" to post like that, a mythical place in Birmingham apparently where houses were "snapped up instantly/crazy over bidding" etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 minute ago, highcontrast said: Haha...no offence but I don't believe that for one second 🤣 Whereabouts in the UK is this? Your posting style reminds me of someone else who "used" to post like that, a mythical place in Birmingham apparently where houses were "snapped up instantly/crazy over bidding" etc. Edinburgh! Can't be reading that closely, Mr Sherlock Holmes, I've said in every other post. You can check for yourself by examining average time on market statistics. Which remain at historic lows. For me this metric is the canary in the mine .But as long as 'average time to sell' remains ultra low, then I'm not seeing any downward movement in prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 24 minutes ago, curious1 said: Odd this graph shows a different picture. That is interesting, but also worth noting this is a local portal which many of the bigger agents eg retties don't advertise on. However saying that I would expect it to be correlated, so interesting none the less and does at least raise questions about the other data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highcontrast Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 hour ago, mynamehere said: Edinburgh! Can't be reading that closely, Mr Sherlock Holmes, I've said in every other post. You can check for yourself by examining average time on market statistics. Which remain at historic lows. For me this metric is the canary in the mine .But as long as 'average time to sell' remains ultra low, then I'm not seeing any downward movement in prices. Ah apologies, I remember now, but I don't think one of the biggest tourist city's in the UK is representative of the UK housing market at all, in fact a big outlier... IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Goggles Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 3 hours ago, highcontrast said: I wasn't paying a huge amount of attention to volume prior to 2020, but @TheCountOfNowhere 's chart is an eye-opener. But definitely heading in the right direction and that is very nice upward slope! I wonder, over the Covid peak madness of no stamp duty, free Covid money, loans to dodgy small businesses etc, that there was an increase in second home buying hence the lack of normal volume? Dunno, but I was reading that second home buying has come to a standstill, and there are a load of unsold properties building up in coastal Devon and Cornwall. You can't remortgage your London home so easily when prices aren't rising, and with IRs going up and foreign holidays back on the itinerary, even renting it out on AirBnB when you're not using it doesn't make the sums add up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Goggles Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 3 hours ago, andrewwk said: 1988 called, it wants its dotmatrix graphics back... ALL YOUR SCOTTISH PROPERTY TRANSACTION ARE BELONG TO US! (Geek joke, sorry)🤓 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turkeydogshrimp Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Limit people to 1 home per person/family, no asset hoarding, no milking renters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 5 hours ago, rantnrave said: The Count's chart seems to stop with data to the end of August? Think that's just how the spreadsheet shows it. It's up to Monday this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 I get that when I resized it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highcontrast Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: I get that when I resized it So looking at that chart and the direction of travel, we could be back pre Covid levels of supply within months? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgle Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 21 hours ago, rantnrave said: The Count's chart seems to stop with data to the end of August? Maybe he’s been taking influence from the Liberal Democrats when it comes to chart presentation:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgle Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 (edited) duplicate Edited October 21, 2022 by Gurgle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgle Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 (edited) duplicate Edited October 21, 2022 by Gurgle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snicks918 Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 A colleague was telling me yesterday that he finally sold his flat in London that has been on the market since January. The only genuine offer came from a foreign cash buyer who repeatedly negotiated the price further down over the course of the sale. They begrudgingly went along with it because 500+ similar flats are due to come on the market in their area soon and they wanted to sell before the surge in supply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stjames83 Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 On 10/20/2022 at 10:05 AM, Unmoderated said: I often wonder this. I think several reasons but one being many people able to work remotely or hybrid meaning they do not need to relocate to take a slightly further away role? Moving very expensive and increasingly so as SDLT bands not keeping up with HPI. People having fewer kids so no need to upsize out of necessity. People buying crazy cars or other toys instead of spending it on a bigger house? Air bnb definitely playing a role in this too. Previously a house for sale also reflected one unit of demand unless probate? Since 2008 money so cheap it didn't pay to downsize to clear the mortgage if/when kids flew the nest? In fact it actively paid to cling on to the biggest mortgage you could. Good analysis. I would also add (as I’ve said before) the sheer amount of equity sloshing around after so many years of HPI, resulting in historically low LTVs. Put it all together and you can easily see there won’t be sufficient forced sellers to precipitate a real crash. I believe the current uptick in supply is nearly entirely due to landlords ditching BTLs but that will be a relatively short-lived thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted October 21, 2022 Author Share Posted October 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, Stjames83 said: Good analysis. I would also add (as I’ve said before) the sheer amount of equity sloshing around after so many years of HPI, resulting in historically low LTVs. Put it all together and you can easily see there won’t be sufficient forced sellers to precipitate a real crash. I believe the current uptick in supply is nearly entirely due to landlords ditching BTLs but that will be a relatively short-lived thing. I disagree. Massively increased mortgage costs and energy bills are going to stir things up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkHorseWaits-NoMore Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 On 20/10/2022 at 11:45, mynamehere said: ...But as long as 'average time to sell' remains ultra low, then I'm not seeing any downward movement in prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 8 hours ago, highcontrast said: So looking at that chart and the direction of travel, we could be back pre Covid levels of supply within months? 4 to 6 months depending on panic selling. Maybe it'll quieten down over the winter. Then again, maybe the first energy bill will focus peoples minds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryBoi Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: 4 to 6 months depending on panic selling. Maybe it'll quieten down over the winter. Then again, maybe the first energy bill will focus peoples minds. I think it will unfold in 3 phases: 1. Slow air leak as new sellers come on and list slightly below the previous to "create buzz". Each seller trying to "undersell" the previous. Like a slow gas leak. This is the current phase. Nothing will sell, then the next phase begins ... 2. Eventually, some sellers with deep equity who just need to move start to make big discounts. Eventually others catch on and then the cascade of discounts begin. Now things start to sell, then the final phase begins. 3. Liquidations. Sellers, regardless of equity, now have to sell due to cash needs and then what we classically know as a crash begins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryBoi Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said: Luke = every Estate Agent right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopsy Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Snicks918 said: A colleague was telling me yesterday that he finally sold his flat in London that has been on the market since January. The only genuine offer came from a foreign cash buyer who repeatedly negotiated the price further down over the course of the sale. They begrudgingly went along with it because 500+ similar flats are due to come on the market in their area soon and they wanted to sell before the surge in supply. Are they intending to buy somewhere else or stay in London? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Stjames83 said: I believe the current uptick in supply is nearly entirely due to landlords ditching BTLs but that will be a relatively short-lived thing. May I ask why you think this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted October 21, 2022 Author Share Posted October 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Orb said: May I ask why you think this? Because he bought in last year's Stamp Duty cut stampede Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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