There is no housing shortage in Britain - The Telegraph

[Insane]

1 minute ago, slawek said:

Why? They checked over 13k properties. 

New build as Newley built ? Or new build as in Newley converted ? 

[slawek]

7 minutes ago, Insane said:

New build as Newley built ? Or new build as in Newley converted ? 

I guess dwelling age is time it was originally built. 

"85% of converted flats were originally constructed before 1919."

[Insane]

7 minutes ago, slawek said:

I guess dwelling age is time it was originally built. 

"85% of converted flats were originally constructed before 1919."

No you miss what I am asking.

You say they inspected 13 thousand properties. I am asking if they were newly built or converted count as newly built ? 

[iamnumerate]

3 hours ago, slawek said:

The proof is on you since you made a claim.

1980-90, see the graph above

I think you don't understand what was claimed by gp_. There is enough houses physically. They are just misallocated. Some people have more than one and don't use them. 

I think misallocation is part of the problem. I would add to that some people live in London on the taxpayer's money and don't work there.  Their houses should be allocated to someone else and they should be allocated housing somewhere else.

[henry the king]

There is no housing shortage if they stopped all these people with second homes, holiday lets and BTL.

[byron78]

Yes. Because everybody just has one house and absolutely nobody is using housing like hotels thanks to AirBNB, right?

He might be right - there are enough houses.

The problem is too few people under 40 own them.

[danlee74]

3 hours ago, slawek said:

There is enough houses physically. They are just misallocated. Some people have more than one and don't use them. 

Yup.

[danlee74]

6 hours ago, gp_ said:

An actually interesting article about housing, not just in the media, but in the Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/30/no-housing-shortage-britain/

I have not fact checked it, but I did look at some numbers and the growth in the number of dwellings matches the growth in population from 2001 to 2020 https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/dwellingstockbytenureuk/2020/ukdwellingdataset2020.xlsx

I do think it is definitely true that house prices are driven by things like interests rates rather than supply and demand.

Strikingly similar to some research I did a while ago: 

 

 

Is there a link to the Telegraph that I can read for free since they seem to have stolen my research 😅?!

[Horseradish]

5 hours ago, Insane said:

WE HAVE A HOUSING SHORTAGE. 

No we don't. It's an utter myth. A myth that's about to come crashing back down to reality.

[Clarky Cat]

Well there shouldn't be any property shortage near me - the population is declining.  Despite this we've had some of the highest increases in property prices nationwide, which implies that the credit supply has been more of an influence.

[Insane]

1 minute ago, Horseradish said:

No we don't. It's an utter myth. A myth that's about to come crashing back down to reality.

Yes we do. Prices might crash but there will still be plenty of people not adequately housed. 

[Horseradish]

1 minute ago, Insane said:

Yes we do.

Nope. And there's ample evidence in this series of blogs to refute it.

[slawek]

1 hour ago, Insane said:

No you miss what I am asking.

You say they inspected 13 thousand properties. I am asking if they were newly built or converted count as newly built ? 

They were houses of all ages. They selected 13k properties and checked them.  When a house was built in 70s they put it in a "new built from 70s" category. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by slawek

[slawek]

This doc has plenty of graphs. It shows that m2 per person has increased since 90s. 

https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/airdrive-images/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/20210224092900/Housing-Research-Note-6-An-analysis-of-housing-floorspace-per-person.pdf

 

[Insane]

2 hours ago, Horseradish said:

Nope. And there's ample evidence in this series of blogs to refute it.

I read the first few bits it's piff. We have a housing shortage. 

Why are asylum seekers being put up in Hotel's and ex army camps if we have enough housing ? 

Why are there 20+ year waiting lists in London if we have enough ? 

Why are there people living in dwellings not fit for human habitation ? Why not move them to the surplus housing ? 

 Why are people living in over crowed conditions ? 

Have you got any numbers for sofa surfing ? 

Have you got any numbers for those in B&B accommodation ? 

Have you got any numbers for those living in Vans ? 

The last 3 are all examples of what is called the hidden homeless. 

WE HAVE A HOUSING SHORTAGE. 

[winkie]

19 hours ago, gp_ said:

I do think it is definitely true that house prices are driven by things like interests rates rather than supply and demand.

The lower the interest rates fell the higher the prices rose, but not only cheap lending but plenty of cheap credit available to buy which pushed prices higher......many properties were bought to flip, improve, extend to add value, so you could say many uninhabitable or undesirable properties were brought back into the market...there were also homes demolished and more new homes created from one saving on VAT 20% of a building cost.......many of these incentives are no longer, rising interest rates, high cost of building materials and labour, higher taxes and rules for BTL, a slowdown on easing, inflation of energy and food...... housing now not such the big quick cash cow it once was, a house is more what it should be a home to live in and to improve in all good time, living in it for a longer.

[danlee74]

13 hours ago, Insane said:

Why are asylum seekers being put up in Hotel's and ex army camps if we have enough housing ? 

Why are there 20+ year waiting lists in London if we have enough ? 

Why are there people living in dwellings not fit for human habitation ? Why not move them to the surplus housing ? 

 Why are people living in over crowed conditions ? 

Have you got any numbers for sofa surfing ? 

Have you got any numbers for those in B&B accommodation ? 

Have you got any numbers for those living in Vans ? 

The greedy and selfish rich playing real life monopoly under-utilising using the existing resource, enabled by a political class that allows them to do so by favouring a tax policy that benefits them.

Maybe we need to list some high profile housing resource under-utilisers, just in the UK? I'll start ... Rishi "4 house" Sunak ... Tony "10 houses and 27 flats" Blair ... maybe there should be a website where house under-utilisers are listed with the number of houses that are under-utilising, and then people would actually get what our political classes are allowing to happen to us in plain sight.

Houses should be for living in, not to show off wealth at the expense of the ordinary Jo/Joe on the street.

 

EDIT: Apparently Sunak has 4 UK houses, not 9.

Edited July 2, 2022 by danlee74

[Insane]

2 hours ago, danlee74 said:

Maybe we need to list some high profile housing resource under-utilisers, just in the UK? I'll start ... Rishi "4 house" Sunak ... Tony "10 houses and 27 flats" Blair ... maybe there should be a website where house under-utilisers are listed with the number of houses that are under-utilising, and then people would actually get what our political classes are allowing to happen to us in plain sight.

Yes it is disgusting. 

But are all of Tony's 10 houses and 27 flats empty ? 

We have a house hording problem but we also have a shortage. 

[Horseradish]

17 hours ago, Insane said:

I read the first few bits it's piff. We have a housing shortage. 

Why are asylum seekers being put up in Hotel's and ex army camps if we have enough housing ? 

Why are there 20+ year waiting lists in London if we have enough ? 

Why are there people living in dwellings not fit for human habitation ? Why not move them to the surplus housing ? 

 Why are people living in over crowed conditions ? 

Have you got any numbers for sofa surfing ? 

Have you got any numbers for those in B&B accommodation ? 

Have you got any numbers for those living in Vans ? 

The last 3 are all examples of what is called the hidden homeless. 

WE HAVE A HOUSING SHORTAGE. 

A bunch of ad-hoc qualitative hearsay and hokum. If you'd actually bother to read that blog series rather than "the first few bits" then you'd perhaps be informed. But, given your posts on here, it seems you're not the type to look at quantitive facts and prefer circumstantial evidence and ranting. Sure, so be it. But you're still flat wrong, and flat out uninformed.

[Insane]

1 minute ago, Horseradish said:

A bunch of ad-hoc qualitative hearsay and hokum. If you'd actually bother to read that blog series rather than "the first few bits" then you'd perhaps be informed. But, given your posts on here, it seems you're not the type to look at quantitive facts and prefer circumstantial evidence and ranting. Sure, so be it. But you're still flat wrong, and flat out uninformed.

Pots and kettles.

You failed to answer even one of the points I mentioned. 

[slawek]

2 hours ago, Insane said:

but we also have a shortage. 

No evidence to support this claim.

[pig]

17 hours ago, Insane said:

I read the first few bits it's piff. We have a housing shortage. 

Why are asylum seekers being put up in Hotel's and ex army camps if we have enough housing ? 

Why are there 20+ year waiting lists in London if we have enough ? 

Why are there people living in dwellings not fit for human habitation ? Why not move them to the surplus housing ? 

 Why are people living in over crowed conditions ? 

Have you got any numbers for sofa surfing ? 

Have you got any numbers for those in B&B accommodation ? 

Have you got any numbers for those living in Vans ? 

The last 3 are all examples of what is called the hidden homeless. 

WE HAVE A HOUSING SHORTAGE. 

Have you got any numbers ?

Misallocation and the bubble  comprehensively interrogated on this site can explain all those manifestations as easily as ‘housing shortage’.

I’m agnostic on this - I doubt very much there is an ‘actual’ shortage but there is probably a minimum desirable excess of housing that could  be defined and targeted.

Why is there being an actual  ‘shortage’ so important to you that you would a priori believe this and discount misallocation without any convincing reason or evidence ?

[Insane]

Just now, slawek said:

No evidence to support this claim.

It is all around you wake up and smell the coffee. 

[Insane]

1 minute ago, pig said:

Have you got any numbers ?

Numbers for which the 20+ year waiting list in London there's one number.

No no actual numbers for how many living in Vans, Sofa Surfing or in B&B's however these are things we never head of in the past. Nor any numbers for those living in over crowded housing or sub standard housing but are you saying these situations don't exist ? 

4 minutes ago, pig said:

I’m agnostic on this - I doubt very much there is an ‘actual’ shortage but there is probably a minimum desirable excess of housing that could  be defined and targeted.

So why have we the examples that I mentioned ? 

4 minutes ago, pig said:

Why is there being an actual  ‘shortage’ so important to you that you would a priori believe this and discount misallocation without any convincing reason or evidence ?

I'm not discounting misallocation but saying we have a shortage quite simple. 

Evidence is everywhere just take a look. 

[slawek]

1 minute ago, Insane said:

It is all around you wake up and smell the coffee. 

Is this a kind of delusion on your side?

The fact that you believe in it doesn't mean it is true. You need to provide evidence to support it. You have failed to do that so far. 

If you look at my post above you see that m2 per person increased since 90s. You noticed also a significant inequality. Older households enjoy over 50m2 pp, younger households have to live on twice less. This inequality increased since 90s.