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House Price Crash Forum


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About gp_

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  1. I have read and enjoyed it. The examples he gives are very good, and I think he is right about many things. His interpretation of the causes is sometimes a bit ideological, but that does not stop the book being worth reading.
  2. What does that even mean? One director? One shareholder? One person is director and shareholder? This looks to me like a misleading summary by a clueless journalist. It might be a distorted rewording of this: https://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/news/2020/06/18/barclays-to-stop-limited-company-and-multi-unit-btl-lending/
  3. Its not really an all time high. The ONS says "not been higher". The "all time high" is spin added by the OP. If you look at the previous release: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/bulletins/privaterentalmarketsummarystatisticsinengland/october2018toseptember2019 what the data says is "rents were unchanged in the period up to march this year.".
  4. Theresa May is no longer either PM or Home Secretary. Boris Johnson is very different, as are current senior member of cabinet. Theresa May is a remainer who agreed to support Brexit in order to become PM. Cameron was a remainer too. the referendum was promised and implemented by remainers who thought they would win and then be able say "we had a referendum and now the topic is closed".
  5. The only Trump voter I know supports him because she used to work for him and found him to be a good boss and a kind man at a personal level. I do think a lot of people probably voted Trump because of how poor the alternatives were and they were fed up enough to vote for anything anti-establishment. I do not think the same is true for Brexit: there has been discontent with the EU for a long time and I think people do not want the level of political integration the EU was heading for. There are good reasons why the UK voted remain by a large margin in the 1970s and leave in 2016. I am slightly older than you, also have letters after my name, not white, not British by birth (and of immigrant ancestry in my birth country), grew up in London and voted Leave.
  6. So rural areas near cities will get more expensive? Sounds plausible, and so may outer suburbs (still convenient, and you get more room and a garden). That means lower demand in city centres, and very likely more supply as offices with no prospect of being let get converted to residential.
  7. The first users a highly subjective measure, and as Sundar Katawala commented in the article people hold themselves to the higher bar. The second is just a few cherry picked stories, not systematic attempt to add up numbers. It just shows what junk can be published in some fields.
  8. The UK is one of the least racist countries in the world. Confirmed by numerous studies, and, as an immigrant and visibly ethnic minority, its my experience too.
  9. I was trying to explain why banks using ML will often not be able to disclose their weightings in a useful form, even if they were forced to.
  10. Its even simpler than that: those who felt they gained from remaining voted remain, those who thought they would gain from leaving voted leave. Take immigration (as people here seem obsessed with it). Someone who hires low paid labour would feel very different about unskilled immigration than someone who is low paid labour. If you look at the graph at the bottom the biggest issue for leavers was sovereignty/bureaucracy. The next biggest was immigration, but a most of that was the economic effect of immigration - which is what I was taking about above. I think the biggest issue was identity: whether people want to be British or European (Elton John style).
  11. The government is not rabidly xenophobic and starting from that expectation is plan silly. We did not leave the EU because only because of immigration, and even where immigration was a concern it was unlimited unskilled immigration - both leave campaigns said that they were happy to have more skilled non-EU immigration. There are currently only 300k people who have BNO passports. a total of 2.9m people qualify, but 2.6m of them have to applied for a BNO passport. They are being offered an extension of the the time they can stay in the UK to one year instead of six months, and a potential further extension of they have enough money, and if they keep extending it until they have lived here five years then they can apply for citizen ship. Only a small proportion of people will want to apply. Most people are very reluctant to leave their home. Moving countries is difficult, expensive and risky. Not if you are going somewhere to work for a few years, but a permanent move is tough. While immigration numbers can look big in absolute terms, as a proportion of the populations people leave it is tiny, and the affluent are far more likely to emigrate than others.
  12. Sort of true, but people did warn about the risk of a pandemic. Read "Stop Reading the News" by Rolf Dobelli. He comments that obsession with current news (at the time he wrote it) was distracting people from thinking about long term issues such as the risk of a pandemic. I think focusing on the risk of a pandemic is leading us to ignore other risks, and even increasing them by our reaction to the pandemic. We are always ready to fight the last war.
  13. True, but I do not think that is as important. At least you can make sure that it is correct. Given increased use of machine learning the weightings may not exist in a comprehensible form anyway. If they are using neural networks for example, you can express a trained neural network as a polynomial equation but it would be a massive one (a variable for each input, order equal to the number of layers, and each layer adding a new set of relationships).
  14. have been saying it for a long time and I am so pleased its not just me!
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