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About gp_

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  1. gp_

    It all depends

    It sounds to me the profit he made was not from property trading, but a return on the work put in to improve the property so it tells us more about the possible gain from improvements rather than the level of house prices.
  2. Remain certainly means that. Privatisation is written into the EU treaties (effectively its constitution - it was even going to be called a constitution but they dropped that to get approval in some countries that needed referendums for the constitutional change the treaties required). What lave means depends on what government we elect after we leave. It could be Corbyn and socialism, or it could be free market capitalism if someone like Rees-Mogg ends up as Tory leader. I prefer either to what we have had for the last decade or two.
  3. Remain stick it to the capitalist elite? The elite are almost entirely Remainers and the EU is designed to entrench rentier capitalism.
  4. The EU is committed to ever closer union so unless we decide to leave at some point we will have to be part of a political union. If we are leaving, its better to leave now than later.
  5. gp_

    Is renting in the UK really that bad?

    @MancTom The problem with renting through letting agents is that you have no chance to find out what the landlord will be like. My last landlord (in Cheshire) was awful - did not do repairs, did not protect deposit. Current ones are really nice. Most past ones (London and Manchester) were fine. The two largish landlords (tens of properties, not hundreds or thousands) I have dealt with were very different. One was the awful one. The other did not actually own the flat but was managing it for a friend (he owned two in the same block) was very efficient. All down to luck, really unless you have something like a personal recommendation or your workplace system.
  6. Re EU policies etc: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/19187033.2007.11675092 http://www.eurstrat.eu/the-european-neoliberal-union/
  7. There is some truth in that, but you assume that leavers are convinced that we have greater economic security by staying in the EU. In the short term, certainly, in the long term I think staying in is riskier because the process of political integration the EU needs is difficult and risky. I also think the EU will be more stable without the UK because they can push on with proper political integration, which the Eurozone economies need. We do not need it, we have always opposed it. They need it. Its still far from easy or safe, but having us consistently blocking it makes it a lot worse. The EU is committed to far worse policies than Thatcher. It has "free market" policies written into the treaties (effectively its constitution) and, unlike Thatcher, there is little sincerity in this as in practice they pursue rentier capitalist policies driven by lobbyists.
  8. @AThirdWay if you are going to quite the LSE Brexit blgo as a source about economic consequences, rather than linking to an article written by two trainee German lawyers you could read some of those written by actual eonomists: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/10/the-eu-locked-in-neoliberalism-and-locked-out-its-people-brexit-is-the-alternative/ http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/11/29/a-no-deal-brexit-would-be-a-liberation-not-a-crisis/
  9. Nothing like the same thing. There are HUGE transfers of govt money between regions in any country. As pointed out earlier payments too/from the EU, especially net, are a relatively small proportion of GDP. If the EU had a proper central government (as it should) with powers to tax and spend that would be different. Without a deal we have not agreed that huge payment. There is zero risk in any plausible scenario of the UK defaulting on sterling bonds so there is no reason anything would affect rates. So why has May got a nominal Brexit deal? Because its what she wanted - Brexit that was as close to Remain as possible. Eire's GDP growth needs to be taken with a pinch of salt because a huge chunk is foreign companies funnelling money through Ireland for tax purposes. Then there is bounce back after the crash. Has the EU promised any grants? I do not think it even has a mechanism for grants on that scale except Greece style rescue packages which are painful because they demand extreme austerity as penance.
  10. gp_

    Halifax Nov 2018

    The Reuters article on this quotes an economist who says prices will slip modestly if there is a no deal Brexit: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-houseprices-halifax/uk-house-prices-rise-at-slowest-pace-in-six-years-as-brexit-nears-idUKKBN1O60RP If he is right that the impact of no-deal is modest, then uncertainty about Brexit cannot be the problem. I am not saying he is wrong, just that both he and those blaming Brexit for the fall cannot be right.
  11. It will be worse for Ireland - see the forecasts done for the EU Parliament. You also need to look at how the pain will be spread. It will hit the affluent a lot more than the poor (generally true of the disadvantages of leaving). Why do you think the Bank of England is worrying about "wage inflation" even though average (mean) pay growth is fairly weak? Because it was planned remainers unwilling to contemplate a real Brexit. The Eurozone is extremely fragile because it does not have a sufficiently centralised government to deal with this. The people who came up with the idea of a single currency expected it to be a stepping stone to political union which has not happened. Its needed, and will happen, but its happening far too slowly. Because of that the odds of a crises are determined by the weakest Eurozone countries, but the average. The UK deal with things going wrong and absorb shocks far better than the Eurozone. We can (and do) tax prosperous regions freely to popup weaker ones - the Eurozone cannot. We can print money to pay debt if necessary - the ECB can but a government unable to pays its debts cannot.
  12. @AThirdWay in the event of a hard Brexit we save the £39bn agreed in the deal. That is enough for a huge stimulus. The long term gains do not come mainly fiscal changes, but from better policies, trade deals, etc. We already have some of the gains (one I did not even expect) in the lowest unemployment in 40+ years and an end to growth in zero hours contracts. It is impossible to quantify, and in any case long term macro economic forecasts are pretty much useless. The fact is that the productive capacity of the economy will not changes, we will have a more equal wealth distribution, and we get rid of a layer of our political structure pretty much dedicated to rentier capitalism (they pretend they are pro-free market, but in practice it is warped).
  13. gp_

    Farage quits UKIP

    @Bluestone59 Yes, I do not like him that much and he did pander to racists - but so have Conservatives and Labour. I expected UKIP to implode once we had a leave vote, as it is a combination of different groups who disagree about everything but Brexit. If we get no Brexit or a nominal Brexit it will create a space for a "decent Brexit party" as @Sperm Donor suggests.
  14. Then there are things like this: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/male-rapist-transfer-womens-jail/ Convicted multiple rapist identifies as woman, sent to women's prison, commits more sexual assaults. Half the "transgender" prisoners in the UK are in for sexual offences.
  15. gp_

    Is renting in the UK really that bad?

    I thought that was a minimum. If you agree a fixed term longer than six months I think you are safe for that fixed term. We have just agreed to renew our AST with a 12 month fixed term. I am pretty sure they cannot change their minds until the 12 months are up (nor can we).

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