Petrol prices hit all time highs.

[kzb]

1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Only in your head. You will be able to charge whenever you want and have the choice of whether to do it at peak or off peak prices. Bit like deciding whether to fill up at the supermarket before you set off on a long trip or paying over the odds at a service station.

The new laws enable them to turn off your EV charger and other appliances.

Rationing may be by price to start with, but I think other considerations will take over.   Social Credit will eventually be the mechanism.

[shlomo]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

I don't think there is incompetence, I think it is deliberate.  Reading between the lines, they don't want the masses to have private cars.  The real target is not to provide us with cars but to do away with them.  The reptiles behind the scenes know full well the renewables electricity system will never be up to the job in the foreseeable future.  The idea is to adjust population psychology to an new normal, where electricity is a privilege to be granted, not something you have an automatic right to.

The persons on here extolling how cheap and great EVs are at the moment are living in a bit of a fools' paradise.  I don't mean that as an insult at all, just that the current EV privilege cannot be sustained for everyone going forward.  They are acting as a kind of advertising to pull people into a very different world to what they imagine it will be.

 

It is not reptilian more social consciousness, do away with cars and use public transport better for the environment and resources will last longer 

[kzb]

12 minutes ago, shlomo said:

It is not reptilian more social consciousness, do away with cars and use public transport better for the environment and resources will last longer 

That's what they'll say, but it is all about control.

[shlomo]

14 minutes ago, kzb said:

That's what they'll say, but it is all about control.

I am a petrol head but accept the world has moved on. My children are happy with public transport and Uber 

[longgone]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

I don't think there is incompetence, I think it is deliberate.  Reading between the lines, they don't want the masses to have private cars.  The real target is not to provide us with cars but to do away with them.  The reptiles behind the scenes know full well the renewables electricity system will never be up to the job in the foreseeable future.  The idea is to adjust population psychology to an new normal, where electricity is a privilege to be granted, not something you have an automatic right to.

The persons on here extolling how cheap and great EVs are at the moment are living in a bit of a fools' paradise.  I don't mean that as an insult at all, just that the current EV privilege cannot be sustained for everyone going forward.  They are acting as a kind of advertising to pull people into a very different world to what they imagine it will be.

 

Essentially the car is irrelevant, its just another consumerist item. 

LIFE is being made more expensive and difficult overall so the proles consume less overall. The car is just a side affect to that. 

climate change dictates we need to consume less, they say if you believe them.  what that means is poor need to consume less.  Either they know something is very wrong up there or its just about power and control. either way life is going to get a bit more chitty for many either way. eventually the balance of inequality will spill over  and then violence will prevail onto those who assume to have more. 

cape town and sao paulo on thames. 

[Confusion of VIs]

4 hours ago, skinnylattej said:

Thank you for the clarification.

I only drive about 11,000 miles per year = 30 miles/day.

If an EV does 4 miles/kW, then 30 miles/day = 7.5 kW/day

Granny charger provides 2.3 kW, thus 3.3 hrs to recharge.

Another view: I can have an 'off-peak' tariff for 6 hours in the night

Thus 6 x 2.3 = 13.8 kW = 55 miles charging only on the 'off-peak' tariff.

If my understanding and sums are correct, I don't need an EV charging point at home.

Given that I only drive further east than Honiton four or five times a year, then a small EV (to fit down the narrow Cornish lanes) with a 100 miles real world range would suit me fine.

Most people don't need an EV charger.

I manage quite happily driving over 12,000m pa on the garden 13Amp socket. My wife parks by the charger, which I bought as I was told I needed one but turned out I didn't.   

[NorthamptonBear]

3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The only people who seem to obsess about charging are those who don't drive an EV, the cure to range anxiety is buying an EV. 

 

Yep. And then you get to experience the many advantages of EVs.

[NorthamptonBear]

3 hours ago, kzb said:

So what are they going to do about air transport?  All those private jets need fuelling somehow.  The only viable option is synthetic hydrocarbon fuel.  Perhaps liquid hydrogen but I think that made people nervous.

I've no doubt that hydrogen is less efficient, but it does act as an energy carrier that can be stored  at reasonable cost.  Unlike electricity.  No-one thought out how to store electricity when we are 100% renewables and it is not costed in either.

It's my belief the "average mileage" of 7,400 is very skewed.  A few years ago they used to say average mileage is 12,000 miles.  There are far more multi-car households these days which has brought the average down, but there are still plenty of people doing far more miles than that.  And those people are the workers.

A hydrogen vehicle can refuel quickly and the range could be very high.  This aspect will be brought to the fore with electric trucking, where they do about 100k miles per year and they certainly don't want to stop every 100 miles for half an hour each time.

Tesla Semi charging requirements are within USA's legal driving/obligatory break-time requirements. Even easier for UK/EU break-time laws. 300/500 miles on full charge (from memory). Same load as diesel, much faster going uphill, less wear on brakes, so a better and safer bet on mountainous routes.

Cars & trucks - the more miles you do, the more you save on "fuel", maintenance and time unavailable due to breakdowns and servicing. 

 

For air transport, some of the possibilities:-

hydrogen - niche only, dangerous, high maintenance and expensive. Promoted by fossil fuel PR lobby groups. Nonsense answer for most uses. Think Big Tobacco & filter tips, "smoked by the most doctors", lies created by some of the same individuals, let alone PR companies involved are the same as those lies.

battery - niche until Wh/kg improves. Possible afterwards, especially with dedicated designs

aluminium air "fuel cells" - interesting, cheap, but some drawbacks (fuel cell increases weight by 20% during use, aluminium cassette is removed (edit: as quick/quicker than fuelling) & recycled cheaply and isn't recharged).

alkanes - methane etc - could be used in hybrids - much better than hydrogen in most ways apart from local airport emissions, but miles better than current emissions. having surface EVs reduces pollution around airports a lot. Somewhere like Heathrow, not sure which emission sources are the worst.

Edited February 17, 2022 by NorthamptonBear

[Riedquat]

1 hour ago, shlomo said:

It is not reptilian more social consciousness, do away with cars and use public transport better for the environment and resources will last longer 

Public transport is not an option for a large number of people. And where it is an option it doesn't have the capacity to move everyone who could make use of it, and cannot practically be increased to do so in many cases.

"Do away with cars" smacks of black and white idealism, looking to extremes by saying "do away with" rather than "reduce." In any case if you want a world with fewer cars you need to reduce the demand for them, over time, by changing how society works. It has shaped itself around easy availability of transport. How are you going to alter that (and hopefully without a "hardly ever need to leave your home" approach)?

[NorthamptonBear]

3 hours ago, winkie said:

You know as well as I do, if private companies have to pay for the infastructure they will want something in return, ownership of the to roads to rent out.... the consumer will end up paying the most......pay for the car, pay for the electricity, pay to purchase expensive replacement batteries, pay per mile of travel........an existing fully paid up ice car only pays for the fuel, no rent the road on top....minimal annual road tax for low emission cars and some oil, water service now and again.......and got the freedom to roam.

 

EV batteries - well designed ones will and do outlive rest of car, have high value for secondary uses (conversions, storage) and eventually be recycled at more than 95% reuse, which will only rise over time. Dig once, use for decades, recycle.

ICE owners pays for maintenance, parts, time spent in garages/fixing, public pay for pollution (externalities). Alzheimer's, impotence, asthma, lower IQs, reduced short and long term memory. 9 million people die from air pollution every year. Some from indoor cooking, many/most from ICE air pollution. Think about how removing lead in petrol led to lower crime rates. Breathe in that cobalt used in the fuel refining process. Less ethically sourced than the tiny % used in EV batteries (much lower % than used in phones, laptops)

Few ICE cars are sold for a decent profit. Most ICE makers make their money from parts. This is a similar model to printers & ink. ICE car makers rely on failure for profits. Never mind that it often happens at the worst possible time (winter, skint, need to get somewhere). It won't be long before ICE makers wind down to be part suppliers to the increasingly uneconomic aging secondhand market.

[NorthamptonBear]

1 hour ago, shlomo said:

I am a petrol head but accept the world has moved on. My children are happy with public transport and Uber 

Good observation. I don't know one youngster who passed when less than 20. One or two that did in their 20s for work. Most of their parents seemed bemused, even a bit angry. Some kids started lessons at 17/18 at behest of parents but soon abandoned lessons. I guess it was such a right of passage and essential to previous generations. Not a surprise to me after seeing some insurance quotes.

Edited February 17, 2022 by NorthamptonBear

[winkie]

3 minutes ago, NorthamptonBear said:

EV batteries - well designed ones will and do outlive rest of car, have high value for secondary uses (conversions, storage) and eventually be recycled at more than 95% reuse, which will only rise over time. Dig once, use for decades, recycle.

ICE owners pays for maintenance, parts, time spent in garages/fixing, public pay for pollution (externalities). Alzheimer's, impotence, asthma, lower IQs, reduced short and long term memory. 9 million people die from air pollution every year. Some from indoor cooking, many/most from ICE air pollution. Think about how removing lead in petrol led to lower crime rates. Breathe in that cobalt used in the fuel refining process. Less ethically sourced than the tiny % used in EV batteries (much lower % than used in phones, laptops)

Few ICE cars are sold for a decent profit. Most ICE makers make their money from parts. This is a similar model to printers & ink. ICE car makers rely on failure for profits. Never mind that it often happens at the worst possible time (winter, skint, need to get somewhere). It won't be long before ICE makers wind down to be part suppliers to the increasingly uneconomic aging secondhand market.

Servicing and fixing keeps local car mechanics in employment......fixing broken white goods does the same.

Rather spend money in the local community than pay it out to massive corporations and rentiers wanting to collect rents on the land we all own.

[NorthamptonBear]

3 minutes ago, winkie said:

Servicing and fixing keeps local car mechanics in employment......fixing broken white goods does the same.

Rather spend money in the local community than pay it out to massive corporations and rentiers wanting to collect rents on the land we all own.

A good % of money is for the parts, transport, massive corporations, their PR lobbyists, bribes to politicos, annoying and expensive advertising and of course every other form of rentier in that chain.

Local car mechanics might have more demand during terminal ICE car phase. As ICE cars age, more work. Mechanics at dealers will be affected very quickly. Eventually local car mechanics will have less work, the rest of us will look at the idea of servicing schedules with quaint disbelief (like double-de-clutching or learning hillstarts in manuals)

 

We have old and new white goods from the same brand. Old ones much more reliable. Planned obsolesce is a thing... 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/computer-science/planned-obsolescence

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_obsolescence#History My emphasis (hmm, bit like a certain EV maker vs legacy ICE - especially the ever growing BMW beaver grill)

Quote

Henry Ford did not like the constant stream of model-year changes because he clung to an engineer's notions of simplicity, economies of scale, and design integrity. GM surpassed Ford's sales in 1931 and became the dominant company in the industry thereafter. The frequent design changes also made it necessary to use a body-on-frame structure rather than the lighter, but less easy to modify, unibody design used by most European automakers.

 

[winkie]

Planned obsolescence does not fit in with net zero omissions..... completely contradictory......same for not supporting existing technology, especially when what had far superior than what effectively forced to change to having......tons of plastic from obsolete components that took energy to produce into ground fill, totally unnecessary....nothing to do with climate change everything to do with making more stuff for people to buy, more rents to collect.

[longgone]

25 minutes ago, NorthamptonBear said:

 

Few ICE cars are sold for a decent profit. Most ICE makers make their money from parts. This is a similar model to printers & ink. ICE car makers rely on failure for profits. Never mind that it often happens at the worst possible time (winter, skint, need to get somewhere). It won't be long before ICE makers wind down to be part suppliers to the increasingly uneconomic aging secondhand market.

you do know ice cars are the most reliable than ever ?  what ice parts ? brakes sensors batteries etc made by thousands of different suppliers ? i can go on ebay and buy 30 different versions of the same set of brake pads for 312mm discs  from £15 to £100 and they all do the same thing. 

dealers rob you blind i agree though, they wanted £295 for a replacement stop start battery as the stop start system will only work when sufficient load is constant in the cells. so it was on the way out. i bought a brand new exide battery for £75 on ebay, reconditioned the old one with my pulse charger over night and flogged it for £35 to guy with an old car without stop start its good enough for that.  £45 for a diy job as oppose to £295. 

only failure was a electric wing mirror another diy replacement £45.  

 

cheap motoring. 

[Confusion of VIs]

5 minutes ago, winkie said:

Planned obsolescence does not fit in with net zero omissions..... completely contradictory......same for not supporting existing technology, especially when what had far superior than what effectively forced to change to having......tons of plastic from obsolete components that took energy to produce into ground fill, totally unnecessary....nothing to do with climate change everything to do with making more stuff for people to buy, more rents to collect.

You seem a bit muddled, one one hand planned obsolescence is a bad thing but on the other hand it employs local mechanics in the unproductive task of fixing things that shouldn't have broken in the first place.  

EVs offer the chance to build cars with a 1m mile life expectancy. Several of the start up companies are adopting this approach as they don't want the hassle of building out a dealer/service centre network. However, this is not attractive for the legacy manufacturers as they have large established dealer networks and make much, in some cases all, of their profits from the parts required for ongoing maintenance and repairs.     

[kzb]

1 hour ago, NorthamptonBear said:

Tesla Semi charging requirements are within USA's legal driving/obligatory break-time requirements. Even easier for UK/EU break-time laws. 300/500 miles on full charge (from memory). Same load as diesel, much faster going uphill, less wear on brakes, so a better and safer bet on mountainous routes.

Until it has actually been reviewed by some real truckers not on the payroll, I remain sceptical of Musk's claims about his truck.

If it has a range of 300-500 miles fully laden, the weight of the batteries must be enormous, and thereby reduce the cargo load that it can carry.

[winkie]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You seem a bit muddled, one one hand planned obsolescence is a bad thing but on the other hand it employs local mechanics in the unproductive task of fixing things that shouldn't have broken in the first place.  

EVs offer the chance to build cars with a 1m mile life expectancy. Several of the start up companies are adopting this approach as they don't want the hassle of building out a dealer/service centre network. However, this is not attractive for the legacy manufacturers as they have large established dealer networks and make much, in some cases all, of their profits from the parts required for ongoing maintenance and repairs.     

Repair is not planned obsolescence...... obsolescence means it becomes useless, non repairable only good for the rubbish..... unsupported, unloved.

Not buying any EV, new or pre owned......no benefit whatsoever to me, a great up front expense with no advantages I can see.....please enlighten me.

[NorthamptonBear]

57 minutes ago, kzb said:

Until it has actually been reviewed by some real truckers not on the payroll, I remain sceptical of Musk's claims about his truck.

If it has a range of 300-500 miles fully laden, the weight of the batteries must be enormous, and thereby reduce the cargo load that it can carry.

Same cargo load (space & weight) as diesel HGVs. Batteries will be 4680 & structural - adding stiffness and replacing some metal/weight in a conventional structure. Weight be will low down, so better ride, better handling.

Musk said on Joe Rogan that Semi would have 500kwh structural battery pack. Presumably that's for the 300 mile range Semi, but not certain. That's 5 Model S/X (old style), 2.5 Hummer EVs.

Weight will be saved on the

1. structure (only truck company able to access SpaceX metallurgists - probably all legacy ICE HGV makers rely on outside developers of components similar to ICE legacy car companies. I'd be surprised if they had great in-house expertise)
2. more importantly a heavy diesel engine
3. gearbox
4. diesel tank + fuel - 1360kg?
5. and all other fluids - lubricants, coolants etc.

Engine - hard to find info - randomly picked HGV diesel - DC16 085A. 566 kW - "Weight 1340 kg (excl oil and coolant)"

Battery - https://insideevs.com/news/521840/tesla-semi-480-battery-analysis/ argues that "We estimate that the 500-mile pack will be approximately 875 kWh and 900 Volts DC. Total pack weight (not just cells) of 9243 pounds" or just under 4.2 tonnes for the long range (500 miles) version. That would equate to 2515 kg for a 300 mile version. I haven't crossed referenced that against expected cell weight as these are pack figures & guesses.

No idea what a gearbox weighs, must be very heavy duty, unneeded in most EVs, I wouldn't expect one in Tesla Semi, instead the three (?) motors will probably have slightly different gearing and attributes for different speeds.

Diesel/fluids - https://www.smart-trucking.com/weight-of-diesel-fuel/ suggests 3000lb is allowed for for diesel ie 1360kg. Then add some more for other fluids. USA though.

So adding up battery packs, 3 motors, all other gubbins is probably not much more than a diesel HGV. Remove some weight for structural improvements, multiple purposes for parts, better metallurgy, more and bigger castings - less fixings and I don't think it will be much different from diesel engine + gearbox + diesel fuel + fluids.

 

Tesla consistently engineer in a way that is efficient in space and weight - eg new Model S Plaid integrates air suspension tank with structural members. On a Munro video, a design expert raved about the Model S Plaid's "Packaging Symphony" where many parts serve many purposes "Who else has this?" 

 

 

[markyh]

8 hours ago, longgone said:

Lol

When ice is no longer around you will end up paying the same as fuel duty or probable more the way things are going.

 

Dont doubt it, but ICE will always pay twice until they are 1% of the UK fleet. Then classic car owners with their 40 year old ice will buy Petrol @ 50p ltr. 

[skinnylattej]

5 hours ago, kzb said:

You can mock, but it's coming.  It's actually the only concrete plan they have for net zero.  The laws enabling "demand management" are either passed already or they will be later this year.  The software will decide whether you can charge your car or not, not you.

Can't use concrete, too much CO2 emitted in concrete production!

[markyh]

13 hours ago, jimmy2x3 said:

 

 

if anyone doubts what i say, im sure many will then just take a look n the site gridwatch. this will show you and likely suprise you at how much we allready get from wind, some days its over 40% allready in the uk just now as i type its over 55% of the uks electricity produced by wind. hardly the useless waste of time that many think is it. 

 

150% tomorrow! lol.  Actually i think they lock down wind turbines in the hurricane winds because overspeed can damage them, so we will use a lot of Gas and coal tomorrow, and Solar and wind will be not doing much. 

[skinnylattej]

4 hours ago, shlomo said:

It is not reptilian more social consciousness, do away with cars and use public transport better for the environment and resources will last longer 

You don't live in a rural area!  I use the buses when I can, but for some destinations there is only one bus a week, from village to town in the morning, and back to the village in the late afternoon.

Some of the villages on the southern fringe of Exmoor have no buses at all!

Perhaps we will get some form of demand responsive public transport.

[markyh]

6 hours ago, winkie said:

You know as well as I do, if private companies have to pay for the infastructure they will want something in return, ownership of the to roads to rent out.... the consumer will end up paying the most......pay for the car, pay for the electricity, pay to purchase expensive replacement batteries, pay per mile of travel........an existing fully paid up ice car only pays for the fuel, no rent the road on top....minimal annual road tax for low emission cars and some oil, water service now and again.......and got the freedom to roam.

 

Funny i wonder when the last state owned Public Petrol forecourt closed? Oh that's right, there never where any, they were all built and run privately for a profit. 

Yawn, same will happen with EV's.  Shell have already fully converted a old petrol station in Fulham to pure EV only, not a fuel pump in sight. 

 

[NorthamptonBear]

2 hours ago, longgone said:

you do know ice cars are the most reliable than ever ?  what ice parts ? brakes sensors batteries etc made by thousands of different suppliers ? i can go on ebay and buy 30 different versions of the same set of brake pads for 312mm discs  from £15 to £100 and they all do the same thing. 

dealers rob you blind i agree though, they wanted £295 for a replacement stop start battery as the stop start system will only work when sufficient load is constant in the cells. so it was on the way out. i bought a brand new exide battery for £75 on ebay, reconditioned the old one with my pulse charger over night and flogged it for £35 to guy with an old car without stop start its good enough for that.  £45 for a diy job as oppose to £295. 

only failure was a electric wing mirror another diy replacement £45.  

 

cheap motoring. 

Very unreliable to unreliable is still unreliable. I've seen quite a few brand new cars (expensive ones at that) broken down shortly after Reg changes.

Consumables - you can go a long way (some 400,000 km) on a single set of brake pads (saving a lot of labour cost) on an EV https://thedriven.io/2021/07/03/impossible-tesla-model-s-does-400000km-on-one-set-of-brake-pads/

Self-servicing has downsides. Fewer people can do it. Many cars are leased or require dealer servicing for warranty. Resale prices of nearly new secondhand cars will be affected if not serviced according by dealer to a schedule. Bangernomics is fine for some people, a minority I would guess.

I also think that some cars are very reliable and retain value (Toyota, Honda?) whereas others seem to have bad reputations for costs and reliability and resale prices sink like a stone (performance exec cars maybe).

https://www.raw2k.co.uk/news/are-bmws-expensive-to-maintain "Out of the top five slots available, BMW cars occupied three of them. The BMW 5 Series cost an average of £585 per year to maintain, while the BMW 1 Series came in at £518, followed by the BMW 3 Series at £486...

two key factors which affect the cost of BMW repair - the complexity of their design, and the proprietary nature of their parts. "