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Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved


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HOLA441
1 hour ago, satsuma said:

Trump has his eye on his and Russias end game, a world where Putin Trump and China have the upper hand.  That world is very dark.  All three rightly see Ukraine as the last spark to be extinguished, before they try to reach the end game.  

M

Trump wants to Brexit from the world. Putin will be all too happy to help his election.

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HOLA442
6 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Putin's mates in Iran may have just unblocked the Ukraine aid bill...

Shaheed drones everywhere. Soon they could be stamping them in the factory with the words "This drone was brought to you by Trumps Republican Party"

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HOLA443
8 minutes ago, pig said:

Shaheed drones everywhere. Soon they could be stamping them in the factory with the words "This drone was brought to you by Trumps Republican Party"

Cheap as chips. Unlike the missiles required to shoot them down.

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HOLA444
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HOLA445
1 hour ago, pig said:

Shaheed drones everywhere. Soon they could be stamping them in the factory with the words "This drone was brought to you by Trumps Republican Party"

Yes they havr screwed the pooch and following Tango One has bitten them on the arse again

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HOLA446

Anyone interested in realistic/objective information regarding the state of the conflict and the potential future outcomes.
I found the talking points from around 38 mins were most interesting. Please note, this is for adult consumption only, although the truth about Father Xmas isn't revealed, some geopolitically ignorant children might get upset, especially those indoctrinated on UK/EU media content.

 

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HOLA447
3 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

Putin's mates in Iran may have just unblocked the Ukraine aid bill...

Interesting thought, why would IRAN want to unblock this aid, why not wait until later and after the vote?  What has IRAN to gain from a defeated Russia?  

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HOLA448
1 hour ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

Anyone interested in realistic/objective information regarding the state of the conflict and the potential future outcomes.
I found the talking points from around 38 mins were most interesting. Please note, this is for adult consumption only, although the truth about Father Xmas isn't revealed, some geopolitically ignorant children might get upset, especially those indoctrinated on UK/EU media content.

 

 

It might seem a scary place but try stepping outside of your propaganda bubble  - try different angles and sources of information other than  dogmatically repeating Kremlin favourable lines.

Maybe train up for it by imagining yourself in other peoples situations In your daily life ?

The tragedy of John Mearsheimer

How the American realist became the world’s most hated thinker.

https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2023/09/tragedy-john-mearsheimer

Quote

“John simply can’t explain Russian behaviour because he is too focused on the international system and ignores the domestic forces at play. He suggests that Ukraine was about to join Nato, but it wasn’t, and he seems to find it reasonable to deny Ukraine the right to chart its own course. He also can’t detect Russia’s colonial attitudes towards Ukraine. I would consider myself a realist, but it is a realism based on assessing the situation as you find it rather than how you wish it to be based on some dogmatic theory.”

 

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HOLA449
4 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Cheap as chips. Unlike the missiles required to shoot them down.

Which is a load of shite

Someone pointed out a tomahawk is 4x more expensive than shaheed but gets to its target 100% of time and doesn’t get shot down 98% of time like Iranian shite 

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HOLA4410
44 minutes ago, yelims said:

Which is a load of shite

Someone pointed out a tomahawk is 4x more expensive than shaheed but gets to its target 100% of time and doesn’t get shot down 98% of time like Iranian shite 

Why are you bother to write such a nonsense?

According to budget data from the United States Marine Corps from 2022, each Tomahawk costs around $2 million.

And are you sure about 100% reliability ...?

Edited by bumble bee
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HOLA4411
1 hour ago, yelims said:

Which is a load of shite

Someone pointed out a tomahawk is 4x more expensive than shaheed but gets to its target 100% of time and doesn’t get shot down 98% of time like Iranian shite 

Quite. Swarms of drones, currently, some will get through. Those using them don't have any better defences against them, they've just not been on the same sort of receiving end yet.

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HOLA4412
14 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Quite. Swarms of drones, currently, some will get through. Those using them don't have any better defences against them, they've just not been on the same sort of receiving end yet.

Shaheed is also a family of drones with different models.

Shaheed 138 for example is $200k a pop and most frequently encountered in Ukraine.

Shaheed 131 is smaller and costs $20k and less effective. It is the figure people like to quote and mainly arms Hezbollah and proxies. The Russians used it but moved to the 136 as Geran-2.

Shaheed-238 costs a lot more than 136 with some estimates at $500k a pop

The ballistic missiles used against Israel were probably Shahab-3 as only thing with the range. A redesign of NK missile which itself was a remodel of Scud / SS-3 Russian tech.

The Russians and Iranians use the drones as swarm bait for air defences hoping to distract from more powerful and accurate weapons.

Shahab-3 is not that accurate hence the large warhead to compensate. Newer variants are better but still around 1/2 km CEP

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HOLA4413
16 hours ago, bumble bee said:

Why are you bother to write such a nonsense?

According to budget data from the United States Marine Corps from 2022, each Tomahawk costs around $2 million.

And are you sure about 100% reliability ...?

Yes modern cruise missiles reliably kill your Russian Nazi comrades @rollover

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/ukraine-uses-british-cruise-missiles-to-hit-russian-military-hq-in-occupied-luhansk-13115721

 

Edited by yelims
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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415
50 minutes ago, bumble bee said:

OMG, Tomahawk is not made in Britain!!!

Tomahawk, American-made low-flying strategic guided missile ...

 

Meanwhile your Iranian shite (notice how Russia has retrograded so far back they can’t even make drones) was mostly shot down in front of world cameras.

So yes your “shaheeds are cheap” argument is ******** especially as Ukraine are daily shooting them down with cheap machine guns and cheap mobile phone based detectors 

All the while western missiles turn more of your Russian Nazi and peadophile comrades into mulch, reliably and consistently 

Edited by yelims
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HOLA4416
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HOLA4417
1 hour ago, yelims said:

Meanwhile your Iranian shite (notice how Russia has retrograded so far back they can’t even make drones) was mostly shot down in front of world cameras.

So yes your “shaheeds are cheap” argument is ******** especially as Ukraine are daily shooting them down with cheap machine guns and cheap mobile phone based detectors 

All the while western missiles turn more of your Russian Nazi and peadophile comrades into mulch, reliably and consistently 

I seem to remember the Shaheeds are slow flying and are getting sniped out of the sky with 50 calibre guns welded onto the back of old motors.  At night the Ukrainians are using night scopes to do this.  

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HOLA4418
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HOLA4419

And now back to reality ...

Ukraine could face defeat in 2024

The former commander of the UK's Joint Forces Command General Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is "a serious risk" of Ukraine losing the war this year.

The reason, he says, is "because Ukraine may come to feel it can't win. And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?"

Ukraine forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defences. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive.

"The shape of the Russian offensive that's going to come is pretty clear," says Gen Barrons. "We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons."

"At some point this summer," says Gen Barrons, "we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than smash forward with small gains to perhaps try and break through the Ukrainian lines.

"And if that happens we would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting into areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them."

https://nz.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-could-face-defeat-2024-002830366.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIK59j_HEK_6xNqGvarw3o0gdg8QdHyo5ZI-rbrXu2eA2TAHtV0ULjSsWWEF6Y8galPygCwVAl4rl2CEQXUFHnnAtBX8geKfFz0Bwwilg4TexdQwTxu_5am4_vbiPgkbfRHbP84dgb6gvWS3R_QGnz2_85rfVzX-GZz0DrYeh3jI

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HOLA4420
7 hours ago, bumble bee said:

And now back to reality ...

Ukraine could face defeat in 2024

The former commander of the UK's Joint Forces Command General Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is "a serious risk" of Ukraine losing the war this year.

The reason, he says, is "because Ukraine may come to feel it can't win. And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?"

Ukraine forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defences. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive.

"The shape of the Russian offensive that's going to come is pretty clear," says Gen Barrons. "We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons."

"At some point this summer," says Gen Barrons, "we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than smash forward with small gains to perhaps try and break through the Ukrainian lines.

"And if that happens we would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting into areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them."

https://nz.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-could-face-defeat-2024-002830366.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIK59j_HEK_6xNqGvarw3o0gdg8QdHyo5ZI-rbrXu2eA2TAHtV0ULjSsWWEF6Y8galPygCwVAl4rl2CEQXUFHnnAtBX8geKfFz0Bwwilg4TexdQwTxu_5am4_vbiPgkbfRHbP84dgb6gvWS3R_QGnz2_85rfVzX-GZz0DrYeh3jI

He's making the case for people not delaying on aid...

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HOLA4421
On 14/04/2024 at 16:51, pig said:

 

It might seem a scary place but try stepping outside of your propaganda bubble  - try different angles and sources of information other than  dogmatically repeating Kremlin favourable lines.

Maybe train up for it by imagining yourself in other peoples situations In your daily life ?

The tragedy of John Mearsheimer

How the American realist became the world’s most hated thinker.

https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2023/09/tragedy-john-mearsheimer

 

So someone doesn't agree with what he says, I think that's called having an opinion.

Just in case anyone was wondering why we only get one sided news in our media feeds (cause we have financed propaganda management on an industrial scale) :

 

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HOLA4422
1 hour ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

So someone doesn't agree with what he says, I think that's called having an opinion.

Just in case anyone was wondering why we only get one sided news in our media feeds (cause we have financed propaganda management on an industrial scale) :

 

What a silly post :)

Presumably that outlines one of the methods of rigidly keeping to Kremlin narrative lines...and therefore by the rules of upside-down world that sorry state of affairs must be projected onto the West lol ?

Why not spread your wings - Chinese academics for example ?

Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine, reckons a Chinese expert on Russia

 

Quote

 

Four main factors will influence the course of the war. The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary. The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.

The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.

 

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/11/russia-is-sure-to-lose-in-ukraine-reckons-a-chinese-expert-on-russia

 

Edited by pig
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HOLA4423
8 hours ago, pig said:

What a silly post :)

Presumably that outlines one of the methods of rigidly keeping to Kremlin narrative lines...and therefore by the rules of upside-down world that sorry state of affairs must be projected onto the West lol ?

Why not spread your wings - Chinese academics for example ?

Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine, reckons a Chinese expert on Russia

 

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/11/russia-is-sure-to-lose-in-ukraine-reckons-a-chinese-expert-on-russia

 

Hard to understand why any reasonable person would cheer on Russia, seems we need to regularly remind these people that Russia is a danger dictatorship who invaded Ukraine, breaking previous agreements made to satisfy Russian security concerns, and that Crimea was sacrificed, despite the Crimea invasion breaking these agreements.  What concerns me is the notion that Ukraine will eventually prevail, this is not guaranteed.  Help is coming slowly and then stalls.  Germany and the US are unreliable partners.  The UK doesn’t seem to have much to offer in terms of real help.  Meanwhile countries are doing a “whip around raffle sale” to send shells.  You couldn’t make it up, we have floods of refugees coming in and nothing is being done to stick it to Russia, the main cause of these refugees.  

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HOLA4424
13 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

He's making the case for people not delaying on aid...

Rollover shown time and time again that his English comprehension is terrible and his job is nothing more than copy and paste from Kremlin provided playbook to earn for a bottle of vodka to drown his sorrow at being a Russian serf 

There is no other reason why anyone would cheer for rapists, Nazis, murderers and peados that Russian barbarians are these days 

Edited by yelims
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HOLA4425
13 hours ago, pig said:

Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine, reckons a Chinese expert on Russia...

Good one, now that one is pretty 'silly' and not from the Atlantic Council either, well not directly anyway.
Btw, I'm not cheering for Russia, other than seeking to expose the current and historical realities. There is a partial self interest to declare, in that Russia cannot be defeated in the way the west has been attempting or it's game over for all of us.

I would hope that you guys are in for a shock when the truth(s) become known. But Na, everyone was fine will the false claims of WMD/Al-qaeda in Iraq and a million dead with our taxes, so it matters not, does it ...
 

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