Fromage Frais Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I think we will see collapse(ish) over the next couple of months as it becomes clear you cannot buy a house before the deadline. My 2p Optics wise the government will then be able to be seen as saving the market as opposed to boosting it (even though thats the reality). It may even be better to let it fall 5-20% to enhance the subsequent boost. Rather than offer 30% deposit mortgages (bad idea but would put a floor in and allow falls/improved affordability). The paymasters of the conservatives will insist on 5-10% mortgages and then at a stroke the government will as in HTB become the mortgage market provider. This will close that "bargain" window and maybe boost things until the election banks will suffer as all will be on the gov socialises the mortgage market. The brexit/covid recession will be so severe that the temptation to meddle will be too great so the gov loans will of course be silly and reflect high risk loans rather than prudent ones and then after a while of boosting will have a recession but this time the government is on the hook for the whole lot. Massive inflation > misallocation > socialism proper following inability/bad optics to evict non payers (government defacto owners). At this point who can then put the money into the ponzi machine as unless the government pay owners to have mortgages (and by then its possible interest rates and inflation could be higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24gray24 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I'd guess at sudden, overnight, but I can't think of any good reasons why. (Except macbeth/machiavelli: if it's got to be done, better do it quickly and at the beginning of cycle). So, for example, we wake up one morning and (something foreign) and therefore we have to (stop lending, raise interest rates, whatever) in response. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 I'd guess at sudden, overnight, but I can't think of any good reasons why. (Except macbeth/machiavelli: if it's got to be done, better do it quickly and at the beginning of cycle). So, for example, we wake up one morning and (something foreign) and therefore we have to (stop lending, raise interest rates, whatever) in response. That could be brexit. But that could also lead to central bank mega loosening instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24gray24 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 That could be brexit. But that could also lead to central bank mega loosening instead. Tories must be wondering when to switch from the (dying off) boomers to a new generation... So mega loosening could just make the eventual crash worse. And make losses worse for the banks. Better to get it done in covid year? Then 4 years with everyone under 40 in a much better house than they could otherwise have expected... But I think they need something a bit less of their fault than brexit to blame sudden interest rises on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Tories must be wondering when to switch from the (dying off) boomers to a new generation... So mega loosening could just make the eventual crash worse. And make losses worse for the banks. Better to get it done in covid year? Then 4 years with everyone under 40 in a much better house than they could otherwise have expected... But I think they need something a bit less of their fault than brexit to blame sudden interest rises on... Demographics are the Tories worst enemy. Half their base will die off within 2 GEs. The new voter cohort and the new middle classes won't touch them with a barge pole. They have to move to a totalitarian state within that time frame. Hence the rabid demonisation of 'lefty millenials' and the need 'to take control' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24gray24 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Demographics are the Tories worst enemy. Half their base will die off within 2 GEs. The new voter cohort and the new middle classes won't touch them with a barge pole. They have to move to a totalitarian state within that time frame. Hence the rabid demonisation of 'lefty millenials' and the need 'to take control' Never under estimate the Tories. They won't go totalitarian. That's labour thinking. They'll switch horses decisively at the opportune moment and hope to win again. (The OAPS will forgive them as long as they put up interest rates). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A17 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Demographics are the Tories worst enemy. Half their base will die off within 2 GEs. The new voter cohort and the new middle classes won't touch them with a barge pole. Haven't people been saying that since about 1950? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 Never under estimate the Tories. They won't go totalitarian. That's labour thinking. They'll switch horses decisively at the opportune moment and hope to win again. (The OAPS will forgive them as long as they put up interest rates). That would have to be a hell of a switch, like Thatcher pushing out Heath. That's also a symptom of our two party politics. You simply have to accept that a party can change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Never under estimate the Tories. They won't go totalitarian. That's labour thinking. Remind me which Mayor bought water cannon after the London Riots...only to be be told it was a step too far by the police? Which home secretary is waging war against 'do gooder lawyers'? Which party gave the police the nod to go in hard at Orgreave? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 That would have to be a hell of a switch, like Thatcher pushing out Heath. That's also a symptom of our two party politics. You simply have to accept that a party can change. One of the gifts of our political system was the 'broad church' spectrum of ideas. You supported a party with the closest overlap to your view and had a clear path to influence the party. You may not have got everything you wanted, but you could say you had a fair shot at getting it across. Both Labour and Conservative are prevented from bringing in all views by their 'ideological purity wings' of Momentum and UKIP respectively. Even Thatcher tolerated her 'wets'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondtw Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 But the trolls don't like this inconvenient truth. Relative to wages though, house prices are insane. Not a troll at all old chap - just have a different opinion to you - prices may have fallen slightly in some areas but not enough to make a significant difference. Areas will have different stats due to economic factors - desirability - improvement or decline in the area etc. It is not just London where prices have increased - Home Counties prices have not fallen in the last 2 years if you can prove they have so be it. Personally I do not mind either way my house is a home for me and the family not a financial investment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Nominal is what matters here, not real. . Depends what you're buying with. 1) f it's your wages, then yes, nominal prices are what you are worried about. 2) it's gold, bitcoin, investments, then you are quids in. If you are in group 1) then you have clearly not been listening for the last 10 years. You can lead a horse to water. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Depends what you're buying with. 1) f it's your wages, then yes, nominal prices are what you are worried about. 2) it's gold, bitcoin, investments, then you are quids in. If you are in group 1) then you have clearly not been listening for the last 10 years. You can lead a horse to water. Hows the oil investments going? Unfortunately you cant play the market with hindsight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 . It is not just London where prices have increased - Home Counties prices have not fallen in the last 2 years if you can prove they have so be it. That's bull, check out UK Property Lion... S.E. England, down 1.33% yoy East of England down 1.09% yoy. London, down 6.16% Since Jan with listings doubling The south of England is teetering on a full on 60% price collapse and given the numbers that'll still leave prices too high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Hows the oil investments going? Unfortunately you cant play the market with hindsight. Very well thanks. Sold out and bought in at rock bottom again and made about 20K in the last month. Howz your BTL investment going ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Very well thanks. Sold out and bought in at rock bottom again and made about 20K in the last month. Howz your BTL investment going ? I dont have BTL. I know people that do though. Over 10 years i am jealous to be fair. Not jealous of your fictional share trading. If you are going to make something up at least look at the historical charts - oil shares have been hitting new lows all month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondtw Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Sold out and bought in at rock bottom again and made about 20K in the last month. Yea ok LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondtw Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 That's bull, check out UK Property Lion... S.E. England, down 1.33% yoy East of England down 1.09% yoy. London, down 6.16% Since Jan with listings doubling The south of England is teetering on a full on 60% price collapse and given the numbers that'll still leave prices too high. You said they have gone down in the last 2 years not the last year. I have never even heard if Property Lion. I have better things to do than spend my life on property related web sites. I have a family, job, hobbies, interests, mates. London may well have dropped as people get away to better locations. I am sure there are many other web sites that show prices have risen. I just did a quick google on something called property data - it shows prices going up everywhere- not by much. Again I do not care. I am not going to sell for many years so it is of no import. My home is where I live I could not care less if it goes up or down in terms of what someone may or may not at some time be prepared to pat for it. Not everything people buy is determined by if or not it will increase in value in the future. If you really think prices will fall 60% good luck. As for the South of teetering on collapse where do you think all the London buyers are moving to? They are moving to the Home Counties and the South East. Not Mars or Liverpool. Problem is if prices did fall 80% there will still be some who will think they are clever by waiting for a bigger drop and missing out as they did last time and some who still cannot afford to buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Soon as a currency collapses the sky is the limit for IRs. I'm exactly half-way between agreeing wholeheartedly and saying this is absolutely wrong. I guess the first glitch is agreeing what we mean by a currency collapsing. Do we mean that its nominal value falls relative to other currencies? Do we mean that high/hyper inflation will make all nominal savings/debts in the currency irrelevant relative to commodities (and the basic cost of living)? Do we mean something completely different? If interest rates rise - assuming perceived solvency of debtors - then the currency strengthens relative to currencies without rising interest rates. Governments might not like this because it undermines their domestic economy by undermining exports. Individuals in government might like or loathe this... depending upon how they have invested their portfolios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) You said they have gone down in the last 2 years not the last year. S.E. England, down 1.33% yoy I dont have the data for SE for 2 years. London has been falling in PCL for 2/3 years now. Outer London now following. Shires to follow. The further from London you are the worse it'll be. Edited October 28, 2020 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Yea ok LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twenty Something Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Sold out and bought in at rock bottom again and made about 20K in the last month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 BYE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Hows the oil investments going? Unfortunately you cant play the market with hindsight. No, but you can pretend you bought and sold at the right time on the internet and then make mad assertions about a 60% collapse in prices based on 'me feelz' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Orange Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Haven't people been saying that since about 1950? Have they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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