Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Ah-so]

17 minutes ago, Dr Doom said:

MHRA is publishing adverse reaction data at last.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting#yellow-card-reports

The MHRA has received 107 UK reports of suspected ADRs to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in which the patient died shortly after vaccination, 34 reports for the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine and 2 where the brand of vaccine was unspecified. The majority of these reports were in elderly people or people with underlying illness. Review of individual reports and patterns of reporting does not suggest the vaccine played a role in the death.

All coincidences I'm sure.

Quote

Part of our continuous analysis includes an evaluation of natural death rates over time, to determine if any specific trends or patterns are occurring that might indicate a vaccine safety concern. Based on age-stratified all-cause mortality in England and Wales taken from the Office for National Statistics death registrations, several thousand deaths are expected to have occurred, naturally, within 7 days of the many millions of doses of vaccines administered so far, mostly in the elderly.

The MHRA has received 107 UK reports of suspected ADRs to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in which the patient died shortly after vaccination, 34 reports for the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine and 2 where the brand of vaccine was unspecified. The majority of these reports were in elderly people or people with underlying illness. Review of individual reports and patterns of reporting does not suggest the vaccine played a role in the death.

So nothing statistically unsurprising. Of course, some of those with ADRs are also going to be those who were due to die that week anyway. Perhaps in some cases it pushed them over the edge. But if your health was so bad that you can't survive a vaccination, you aren't going to survive the disease itself.

[Ah-so]

3 minutes ago, Dr Doom said:

About 350K over 75s die in a typical year. So that's about 30K / month. We would expect about 60K of them to have died by now from natural mortality.

So throw in another thousand odd per day from COVID at the peak, we have probably seen the death rate of the over 75s running at about twice the normal death rate.

[Dr Doom]

1 minute ago, Ah-so said:

So nothing statistically unsurprising. Of course, some of those with ADRs are also going to be those who were due to die that week anyway. Perhaps in some cases it pushed them over the edge. But if your health was so bad that you can't survive a vaccination, you aren't going to survive the disease itself.

I don't think that's necessarily the case. I've heard some accounts of (old) people having had the covid recovering from it. Then getting vaccinated and having an unfortunate coincidental non-vaccine related death shortly after. Probably just their time to die anyway.

[copydude]

50 minutes ago, captainb said:

Its no just mangoes and coleslaw. This country hasn't been self sufficient for food since the 17th century. 

They didn't have Tofu, Quorn or Kesp (Cortaulds Edible Spun Protein) then. Or Linda McCartney. ))

Actually, there is good chance that Brexit will soon prevent the importation of food before Covid.

[Ah-so]

2 minutes ago, Dr Doom said:

I don't think that's necessarily the case. I've heard some accounts of (old) people having had the covid recovering from it. Then getting vaccinated and having an unfortunate coincidental non-vaccine related death shortly after. Probably just their time to die anyway.

Statistically there should be several thousand people in that age bracket dying shortly after having the vaccine, and some of whom would anyway have previously recovered from COVID. As you say, it was probably just their time.

[captainb]

11 minutes ago, copydude said:

They didn't have Tofu, Quorn or Kesp (Cortaulds Edible Spun Protein) then. Or Linda McCartney. ))

Actually, there is good chance that Brexit will soon prevent the importation of food before Covid.

No but they did have bread for which the wheat was imported or potatoes imported from Ireland, corned beef from the USA etc etc

The what's imported has changed but regardless the country is not and has not been self sufficient in food for centuries. 

Brexit won't change that anymore than covid. 

1.7m tonnes of wheat imported last year mostly from the EU alone. Who needs bread when you have tofu... Wait a min... 

 

UK produces 55% of food consumed. Big gap to make up if you really want to for whatever reason and haven't managed it for hundreds of years. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by captainb

[copydude]

23 minutes ago, captainb said:

No but they did have bread for which the wheat was imported or potatoes imported from Ireland,

Easily replaced by edible spun carbohydrate.

[nightowl]

What's going on this thread?

Infections number back to October levels, death rate plumitting, vaccine roll out still going, peak annual death time passed, opening up on the way ...etc..etc..

Yet so many here are fretting about B117, SA imports, 2nd jab gaps etc and trying to find the most negative doom angle on everything or simply trapped in another time.

There's a difference between being analytical and skeptical and the MSM fuelled(?) fueled doom 🙄. What would Sigmund Freud think 😆

Edited February 8, 2021 by nightowl

[Orb]

5 minutes ago, nightowl said:

What would Sigmund Freud think 😆

He'd probably conclude your cynicism of vaccination is a subconscious fear of your needle-like girth. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Orb

[Arpeggio]

11 hours ago, Brave New World said:

A new low for this thread.

Using the the black hole of publicity Katie Price as a validator of anti vaccine wankery.

I laugh at you .....whilst I reach for the ignore button you cretinous stain. 

Gary Matthews, think on dulltard.

Sorry for mentioning Katie Price's son was hospitalized after his first injection. It was another example, it could have been anyone, but I didn't realize, as you have now made clear, that he and his mother are irrelevant.

From now on I will make sure that people I refer to who are hospitalized after their 1st injection have a PhD in Cellular-Wide Electric Field Mapping.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Arpeggio]

20 minutes ago, Orb said:

He'd probably conclude your cynicism of vaccination is a subconscious fear of your needle-like girth. 

Someone who injects cocaine and came up with the theory of ***** Envy would say that.

[Arpeggio]

2 hours ago, Dr Doom said:

Chances are it's vastly under-reported. If VAERS is anything to go by <1%.

So you can scale that up to ~15K deaths. Which correlates nicely with the excess deaths seen so far this year.

The MHRA is 100% funded by the pharmaceutical industry according to HoC Health 4th report chapter 5 paragraph .98

CDC also has reporting system called V-safe, apparently different from VEARS, which is where we got some of the earlier data from and the 2.7% figure. Although it seems to have gone quiet since Dec. 19 when originally published.

https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/01/06/trust-index-look-at-results-of-cdc-report-on-reactions-to-coronavirus-vaccine/

I'm sure you recall this chart....

[captainb]

16 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

The MHRA is 100% funded by the pharmaceutical industry according to HoC Health 4th report chapter 5 paragraph .98

CDC also has reporting system called V-safe, apparently different from VEARS, which is where we got some of the earlier data from and the 2.7% figure. Although it seems to have gone quiet since Dec. 19 when originally published.

https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/01/06/trust-index-look-at-results-of-cdc-report-on-reactions-to-coronavirus-vaccine/

I'm sure you recall this chart....

 

2.7% scale for numbers who have had the vaccine now 

Edited February 8, 2021 by captainb

[MARTINX9]

5 minutes ago, captainb said:

Covid-19 vaccines and a table with a timescale from December 2014 to December 2018.

Brillaint just brilliant. 

To be fair they are the dates - not the years.

So for example 3,150 on 18 December 2020 and 3 reported on 14 December 2020 'health impact events'.

The Americans do dates the other way round - so today is not 08/02/21 but 02/08/21!

Edited February 8, 2021 by MARTINX9

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, Dr Doom said:

MHRA is publishing adverse reaction data at last.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting#yellow-card-reports

The MHRA has received 107 UK reports of suspected ADRs to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in which the patient died shortly after vaccination, 34 reports for the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine and 2 where the brand of vaccine was unspecified. The majority of these reports were in elderly people or people with underlying illness. Review of individual reports and patterns of reporting does not suggest the vaccine played a role in the death.

All coincidences I'm sure.

On the face of it that seems highly probable.

7,000,000 of the countries oldest citizens vaccinated. Even allowing for an average life expectancy of 10yrs you would expect almost 2,000 deaths a day within that cohort. 

 

 

    

 

 

[captainb]

1 hour ago, nightowl said:

What's going on this thread?

Infections number back to October levels, death rate plumitting, vaccine roll out still going, peak annual death time passed, opening up on the way ...etc..etc..

Yet so many here are fretting about B117, SA imports, 2nd jab gaps etc and trying to find the most negative doom angle on everything or simply trapped in another time.

There's a difference between being analytical and skeptical and the MSM fuelled(?) fueled doom 🙄. What would Sigmund Freud think 😆

At least its been a solid week since we have had the genius long covid in "10% of infections" 

Now the cumulative infections are in the 10s of millions in the UK, you would think it would be dropped for good and replaced with a more realistic %. As there erm arnt millions of people with severe long term conditions taking up every medical appointment going. 

But I'm sure that gem will reappear as soon as deaths are in the 100 or so a day. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by captainb

[captainb]

2 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

To be fair they are the dates - not the years.

So for example 3,150 on 18 December 2020 and 3 reported on 14 December 2020 'health impact events'.

The Americans do dates the other way round - so today is not 08/02/21 but 02/08/21!

Realised within a min and corrected. My bad! 

[Dr Doom]

6 minutes ago, captainb said:

2.7% scale for numbers who have had the vaccine now 

That would translate to about 270K adverse reactions so far, based on 10m vaccinated.

The coincidental non-vaccine related death rate comes out somewhere ~0.15%.

This is acceptable because COVID has a 15% death rate.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

3 hours ago, copydude said:

They didn't have Tofu, Quorn or Kesp (Cortaulds Edible Spun Protein) then. Or Linda McCartney. ))

Actually, there is good chance that Brexit will soon prevent the importation of food before Covid.

But there were crazy ideas about towing icebergs!

http://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/243364/

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

2 hours ago, nightowl said:

What's going on this thread?

Infections number back to October levels, death rate plumitting, vaccine roll out still going, peak annual death time passed, opening up on the way ...etc..etc..

Yet so many here are fretting about B117, SA imports, 2nd jab gaps etc and trying to find the most negative doom angle on everything or simply trapped in another time.

There's a difference between being analytical and skeptical and the MSM fuelled(?) fueled doom 🙄. What would Sigmund Freud think 😆

 

Some want to stay locked in their gimp cages forever!

[nightowl]

1 hour ago, captainb said:

At least its been a solid week since we have had the genius long covid in "10% of infections" 

Now the cumulative infections are in the 10s of millions in the UK, you would think it would be dropped for good and replaced with a more realistic %. As there erm arnt millions of people with severe long term conditions taking up every medical appointment going. 

But I'm sure that gem will reappear as soon as deaths are in the 100 or so a day. 

There's quite a doom queue of fear stories coming out, so 'long covid' has to take a back seat this week, but I'm sure it will get its turn again. 

Today 333 deaths with covid, which is less than flu would normally claim this time of year....only a very quick mention and flash on the screen on the £157p/yr news channel tonight.  Also a lot a 'on message' health experts repeating the same vaccine message too.

Edited February 8, 2021 by nightowl

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Like we used to have the BRIC economies, we need to name the leading nations for new cases! If I take the liberty of calling the USA America (or perhaps the French  Angleterre, for the UK) we get

America, Brazil, Germany, France, Mexico, Russian and UK

That can be abbreviated as B.U.G.F.A.R.M. so we are now join the ranks of the Bug farm nations.

 

#	Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	Total Tests	Tests/ 1M pop	Population
	World	106,951,518	+275,367	2,334,515	+7,080	78,920,749	25,696,254	103,441	13,721	299.5
1	USA	27,677,320	+64,724	476,032	+1,100	17,478,600	9,722,688	21,839	83,321	1,433	325,001,345	978,397	332,177,397
2	Brazil	9,548,079	+23,439	232,170	+609	8,447,645	868,264	8,318	44,727	1,088	28,600,000	133,975	213,473,262
3	Germany	2,296,230	+4,720	62,597	+469	2,041,300	192,333	3,957	27,354	746	40,705,522	484,899	83,946,321
4	France	3,341,365	+4,317	79,423	+458	233,993	3,027,949	3,363	51,122	1,215	46,751,422	715,279	65,361,102
5	Mexico	1,932,145	+6,065	166,200	+414	1,490,077	275,868	5,692	14,891	1,281	4,893,829	37,717	129,750,444
6	Russia	3,983,197	+15,916	77,068	+407	3,472,091	434,038	2,300	27,287	528	104,700,000	717,259	145,972,446
7	UK	3,959,784	+14,104	112,798	+333	1,950,886	1,896,100	3,505	58,145	1,656	78,206,286	1,148,371	68,101,913

[Arpeggio]

India asked Pfizer to conduct more bridging trials that included Indian subjects, instead of just American and British ones. Pfizer refused and withdrew from India (can be confirmed if you look it up).

Another dies 25 minutes after vaccine

Obviously not the vaccine it would have happened anyway, and if with a positive PCR test within 28 days it would have been COVID.

This one could be described as violent shaking.

The following video is quite interesting from 12:30 talking about mRNA injection.

Dr. Sherri Tenpenny Explains How the Depopulation COVID Vaccines Will Start Working in 3-6 Months

 

I wondered about Auto-immune Dependent Enhancement due to too many binding non-neutralizing antibodies and not enough neutralizing ones. She seems to be saying that is actually what the mRNA injection does by design!

 

 

 

32 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Today 333 deaths with covid, which is less than flu would normally claim this time of year....only a very quick mention and flash on the screen on the £157p/yr news channel tonight.  Also a lot a 'on message' health experts repeating the same message too.

What's the PCR cycle now though? it is still 44? I looked earlier, doesn't seem easy to find. Previously an FOA request was needed to get this info.

We really need to get those 2nd injections going.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Arpeggio]

Rabbi Yisroel Rapoport z”l, Passes Away Day After Receiving Second Covid Vaccine

Nothing to do with the vaccine of course.

[nightowl]

1 minute ago, Arpeggio said:

What's the PCR cycle now though? it is still 44? I looked earlier, doesn't seem easy to find. Previously an FOA request was needed to get this info.

We really need to get those 2nd injections going.

I presume its still 44 or something like that 🙄  but changing it now throws up a few issues though.

Back to tonight's 'news' broadcasts though, all the panic is on a small study that 'suggests' the Ox/AZ vaccine may not be so good with the SA variant and that word 'suggests' is should be added to the others in regular use right now - 'may', 'might', 'could', 'concern', 'feared' ... etc.

I do get the sense a sort of end is coming as the 2nd jabs roll out over the next month or so, and as some of us have spotted there are plenty who want or need CV19 to keep going.