Pablo Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 https://moneyweek.com/house-prices-arent-just-slipping-in-the-uk-this-is-global/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOLZHENITSYN Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, ItalianV6 said: https://moneyweek.com/house-prices-arent-just-slipping-in-the-uk-this-is-global/ Makes sense. House prices have risen globally (broad generalisation) in line with other asset prices in response to globally low interest rates and QE money. As rates rise and liquidity is withdrawn then those prices will fall. The central banks will be hoping the majority of the fall will be in real terms rather than nominal, buts let’s see... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pablo Posted July 30, 2018 Author Share Posted July 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, SOLZHENITSYN said: Makes sense. House prices have risen globally (broad generalisation) in line with other asset prices in response to globally low interest rates and QE money. As rates rise and liquidity is withdrawn then those prices will fall. The central banks will be hoping the majority of the fall will be in real terms rather than nominal, buts let’s see... Absolutely, a positive to see it written down for public consumption though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Locke Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, ItalianV6 said: https://moneyweek.com/house-prices-arent-just-slipping-in-the-uk-this-is-global/ Quote an inheritance (although my advice on this latter point is spend the lot, your kids want you to have fun Good that the article is published, but this guy is still a Keynesian dickwad. Ed But to be fair, this is great Quote Let’s go back to basics for a moment. You buy property with debt. Usually a fair chunk of it. Property can be very lucrative as an investment precisely because of this debt (or “leverage”). Put down £25,000 deposit. Buy a £100,000 house, using a £75,000 mortgage. Sell it in two years’ time for £125,000. Pay the £75,000 back to the bank. Pocket £50,000. The price went up by 25%, but you’ve doubled your money. Rinse and repeat until you’re a millionaire. But what makes prices go up in the first place? The rational value of a property (as opposed to the “bubble” value) is dependent on the expected rental income it will generate, and what other people are willing to pay for that income stream. It’s just like a bond in many ways, only riskier, and with plumbing involved. So if you can get 5% from your bank account, you’ll want a lot more from your property – say 10%. But if you can only get 1% from your bank account, you’ll take a lower yield on your property – say 5%. Let’s assume that the annual rental is £10,000 and it stays there. So with interest rates at 5%, you’ll happily pay £100,000 for that rental income. But with rates at 1%, you’ll happily pay £200,000. (I’m keeping the examples simple here). You see what’s happened? The price of the property is basically contingent on interest rates. Edited July 30, 2018 by Locke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 The price of property is pretty much contingent on how much mortgage credit buyers can obtain from the banks. It would seem that nothing deters the lemming like public from taking on as much debt as they can gorge themselves on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 3 hours ago, Sour Mash said: The price of property is pretty much contingent on how much mortgage credit buyers can obtain from the banks. It would seem that nothing deters the lemming like public from taking on as much debt as they can gorge themselves on. Any kind of credit will do. Secured or unsecured, the Fantasy Islanders don't seem to care. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/consumer-borrowing-bank-of-england-brexit-credit-cards-mortgages-unsecured-lending-financial-a8469731.html Quote Britain’s credit card fuelled spending binge continues apace, according to the latest figures from the Bank of England. Lending via plastic rose by an annualised 9.5 per cent in June, outpacing other forms of unsecured credit (8.5 per cent). Mortgage lending, by contrast, ticked up by a more modest 3.2 per cent. The release of the figures followed a report by the Office for National Statistics that last week found UK consumers collectively spent more than they earned in 2017, the first time that has happened in almost 30 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmy2x3 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 15 hours ago, zugzwang said: Any kind of credit will do. Secured or unsecured, the Fantasy Islanders don't seem to care. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/consumer-borrowing-bank-of-england-brexit-credit-cards-mortgages-unsecured-lending-financial-a8469731.html i decided to apply for a credit card, as i thought i best get myself a decent credit rating as i might want a loan in the future to buy a buisness premises. the best i was offered was a 68% rate and a credit limit of £300 we are talking pay day loan territory here and i have no ccjs or anything.i earn 30k+ a year as self employed. it just shows you how people play the game, like some do the benifits system. its all about whats in the files and how you do things to manipulate that. And thats why ive got a poor credit rating and cant get a mortgage while others on less wages down the road think there the dogs ballox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 1 hour ago, jimmy2x3 said: i decided to apply for a credit card, as i thought i best get myself a decent credit rating as i might want a loan in the future to buy a buisness premises. the best i was offered was a 68% rate and a credit limit of £300 we are talking pay day loan territory here and i have no ccjs or anything.i earn 30k+ a year as self employed. it just shows you how people play the game, like some do the benifits system. its all about whats in the files and how you do things to manipulate that. And thats why ive got a poor credit rating and cant get a mortgage while others on less wages down the road think there the dogs ballox. jimmy......to build up your credit rating you do not use your credit card for credit. Always arrange a direct debit to repay the balance IN FULL every month......credit for a month so no interest to pay = NO CREDIT = NO INTEREST TO PAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 2 hours ago, winkie said: jimmy......to build up your credit rating you do not use your credit card for credit. Always arrange a direct debit to repay the balance IN FULL every month......credit for a month so no interest to pay = NO CREDIT = NO INTEREST TO PAY. Not 100% sure of how lenders calculate credit-worthiness but I've heard it said that the absolute best way to build a 'good borrower' profile quickly is to make sure you meet the minimum payment every month but carry over a balance that attracts interest. Apparently paying it all off in full doesn't make you an appealing prospect for more credit. I think that in decades of using credit cards must have paid less than £100 total interest and that was due to 'forgetting' payments due to an annoying mixup with statement dates and due dates where I ended up being 'late' for three months on the trot until I noticed I was being hit by charges. The amount of people who (seemingly) happily carry large amounts of money forward on a seemingly perpetual basis is amazing, they only seem to care that they can make their minimum payments and the credit providers happily extend even more credit with higher limits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, Sour Mash said: Not 100% sure of how lenders calculate credit-worthiness but I've heard it said that the absolute best way to build a 'good borrower' profile quickly is to make sure you meet the minimum payment every month but carry over a balance that attracts interest. Apparently paying it all off in full doesn't make you an appealing prospect for more credit. I make the minimum payment each month, and my Noddle rating / credit score is dropping month-on-month. Being on the electoral register is a good move too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Probably best to clear it then ... 'credit card credit' is horrendously expensive. They do have some sneaky teasers to get you into large amounts of debt on the card though - one of mine is constantly offering 'interest free' credit balance transfers for a relatively low one-off fee (2.99%) for up to a year and a half. The thing is, if you subsequently use the card for anything else, adding to the balance, you end up being liable for interest on the whole outstanding balance until you pay it off. If you are disciplined though, you could use it to clear off another card you were carrying a balance on and then work at paying it down in the interest free period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A third of everything Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 On 31/07/2018 at 16:05, rantnrave said: I make the minimum payment each month, and my Noddle rating / credit score is dropping month-on-month. Being on the electoral register is a good move too. It's recorded that you are only making the minimum though and therefore a negative to do so... add an extra fiver a month and you'll be looked upon more favourably Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maverick73 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 it's an opinion, with out traction from the lords of money control, it will get buried. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkmarket Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Summary of where we are including Sydney, Beijing, Toronto, New York and London: The End of the Global Housing Boom After a years-long surge in global capitals, property prices are starting to head lower. From Sydney to Toronto, here’s a look at what’s ahead. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-31/are-house-prices-falling-from-sydney-to-new-york Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zilly Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 On 30/07/2018 at 14:55, Locke said: Good that the article is published, but this guy is still a Keynesian dickwad. Ed But to be fair, this is great You're very insulting Locke towards people who don't agree with your monomaniacal, fundamentalist worldview ('libshits', 'Keynesian dickwad' etc.). People who are brainwashed - like you are - into cemented, dogmatic, illogical ways of thinking tend to be that way... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Locke Posted August 3, 2018 Share Posted August 3, 2018 14 hours ago, zilly said: You're very insulting Locke towards people who don't agree with your monomaniacal, fundamentalist worldview No, I'm polite up until the point they stick to the trite non-arguments which I dismantle for them. At that point, it's clear they are an NPC drone, hence my contempt. 14 hours ago, zilly said: People who are brainwashed - like you are - into cemented, dogmatic, illogical ways of thinking My point of view is this- it is evil to initiate force and fraud. If you disagree with me, that means you think it is moral to attack peaceful people, which makes you subhuman pond scum. That is the bottom line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkmarket Posted August 10, 2018 Share Posted August 10, 2018 Pretty good overview of where we are, overall contrast between 5yr and 1yr returns is striking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted August 11, 2018 Share Posted August 11, 2018 On 30/07/2018 at 14:48, SOLZHENITSYN said: Makes sense. House prices have risen globally (broad generalisation) in line with other asset prices in response to globally low interest rates and QE money. As rates rise and liquidity is withdrawn then those prices will fall. The central banks will be hoping the majority of the fall will be in real terms rather than nominal, buts let’s see... Impossible. I'm told it is because Romanian plumbers are pushing prices up.... globally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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