Scramz Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 hour ago, UnconventionalWisdom said: Ecb also had self-imposed rules stating that it can only buy up to one third of a country's debt. They will run out of German bonds in a few months, hence the cutting of bond purchases by 50% in January. As long as the average Joe can get a mortgage there will not be a crash. Put interest rates over 10% or a credit 'crunch' will stop people having access to mortgages. That will for sure cause a crash. But until that day happens, its unlikely there will be a 'crash'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whome_yesyou Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, Scramz said: As long as the average Joe can get a mortgage there will not be a crash. Put interest rates over 10% or a credit 'crunch' will stop people having access to mortgages. That will for sure cause a crash. But until that day happens, its unlikely there will be a 'crash'. This. Cheap money is the main reason for the situation we are in... TPTB have not learned a damn thing from the previous boom. The only way for prices to fall is a true tightening of credit IMO. If you make easy money available, then the masses will always take it like lemmings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Hug Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, Scramz said: As long as the average Joe can get a mortgage there will not be a crash. Put interest rates over 10% or a credit 'crunch' will stop people having access to mortgages. That will for sure cause a crash. But until that day happens, its unlikely there will be a 'crash'. No. You don't need 10% to stop all this HPI-forever nonsense. Lot of people stretch to the max when buying. Two (of many) reasons: - "you can't go wrong with bricks 'n' mortar" - there is no other choice (if absolutely set on buying), if bought recently Therefore, it would really not take very much to get them underwater and stop them from remortgaging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarlips Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 10 hours ago, winkie said: Suggs has lived in the same east london terrace since the 80s, he's happy with his lot (although he did have a foray into a holiday house in southern Italy for a bit) all in al, he seems like a good down to earth bloke not interested in a Chelsea mansion/tractor etc considering his wealth and success, good on him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bivvy Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 8 hours ago, Scramz said: We are in the UK. Interest rates would need to be well above 6-7% to cause a 'crash' which most likely will not happen in our life times. Inflation has taken a U turn downwards, albeit slightly. WHAT? So all the sheeple who bought at historic LOWEST ever IR ....lets say for augments sake they have mortgage rate of 1.5% when IR go up to 3% ...they are F&**%@! 3% is verrrrry easy to happen over the next couple of years....AND that my friend is DOUBLE repayments! poor saps! HOW MANY WOULD THEN ...hand the keys back??????????? THE CRASH is coming within the next 2 years for SURE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simhadri Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1st April we will see mega house price crash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnconventionalWisdom Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 11 hours ago, Scramz said: As long as the average Joe can get a mortgage there will not be a crash. Put interest rates over 10% or a credit 'crunch' will stop people having access to mortgages. That will for sure cause a crash. But until that day happens, its unlikely there will be a 'crash'. I don't disagree with you- it's all about cheap credit and over-stretching due to insane expectations of HPI. It's just that with the US and Europe tightening, there's already a reduction of credit. We have the removal of the term lending scheme at the end of the month. If the US continue to push rates up, we have to follow or the pound will get destroyed. I'm hoping that people will start to question QE and borrowing costs return to normality. My fear is that once they tighten, things don't go as planned and they return to the same "emergency" measures which they've been using for ten years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeryMeanReversion Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 10 hours ago, whome_yesyou said: The only way for prices to fall is a true tightening of credit IMO. If you make easy money available, then the masses will always take it like lemmings. That's basically it for me. The only thing to stop it is for the lemmings to become debt-aware. I've noticed a few friends in their 50's are only now realising that the debt they are carrying means retirement will never happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 11 hours ago, Scramz said: As long as the average Joe can get a mortgage there will not be a crash. Put interest rates over 10% or a credit 'crunch' will stop people having access to mortgages. That will for sure cause a crash. But until that day happens, its unlikely there will be a 'crash'. What is a "crash"? To me a crash is nominal prices (not real)down 25% in two years say; but how likely is that? In the early 90s prices fell in real terms by about 30% spread over around 6-7 years so was this a "crash"? I don't think so. There's no doubt that the house buying landscape was much more benign in 1996 than it was in 1989 and property was much more affordable but was it a "crash"? To me there are two main issues: interest rates and demographics. Supply to me is a non issue. If IRs go up quickly we will have a "crash" but TPTB will try and prevent this not only because of the effect on house prices but on the economy generally; we have far too much debt of all sorts and it is not sustainable; the equilibrium rate of interest is declining not increasing due to debt accumulation. The other issue is the fact that the housing ladder is broken and there are far too few FTBs. Who is going to buy all these 5 bed detached houses on the new estates in ten years time? I just don't see it and prices will have to fall. How these two factors interact and over what time scale I have no idea and neither does anyone else but I'm quite certain that the current situation is unsustainable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slimline Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 I put an offer in recently on the basis that the mortgage would equal the rent and at a shorter term than usual will allow me to clear it in less than normal timescales. As above, the market can stay far more irrational than you could ever imagine. I saw BTL mortgages earlier back at 2% on a five year fix albeit it with 2K arrangement fees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janch Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-19/londons-property-crash-has-begun .............already on the London thread but it won't hurt to add it here as well..........just to give us all hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 6 hours ago, Slimline said: I put an offer in recently on the basis that the mortgage would equal the rent and at a shorter term than usual will allow me to clear it in less than normal timescales. As above, the market can stay far more irrational than you could ever imagine. I saw BTL mortgages earlier back at 2% on a five year fix albeit it with 2K arrangement fees. Sure you did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slimline Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Sure you did. #truestory http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/buytolet/article-5175575/Buy-let-mortgage-rates-cheap-lock-fix.html https://uk.virginmoney.com/mortgages/find/Find-A-Mortgage/5yr_everyday_fixed_cashback_9czk?buyertype=buytolet/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, Slimline said: #truestory http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/buytolet/article-5175575/Buy-let-mortgage-rates-cheap-lock-fix.html https://uk.virginmoney.com/mortgages/find/Find-A-Mortgage/5yr_everyday_fixed_cashback_9czk?buyertype=buytolet/ You loons never give up do you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quilan Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 I am reminded of this quote from the Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb about the duration of the Lebanese civil war. Fact is, we have no idea when this topsy turvy situation will end and anyone who tells you with confidence they know is talking nonsense. When it does change significantly, it will seem obvious in hindsight what the triggers were. My own feeling is that something will change significantly in the next 1.5 to 3 years and there will be a buying opportunity. Unfortunately it has taken so bloody long now, I'll struggle to get a mortgage due to my age. Nobody Knows What’s Going On The first leg of the triplet is the pathology of thinking that the world in which we live is more understandable, more explainable, and therefore more predictable than it actually is. I was constantly told by adults that the war, which ended up lasting close to seventeen years, was going to end in “only a matter of days.” They seemed quite confident in their forecasts of duration, as can be evidenced by the number of people who sat waiting in hotel rooms and other temporary quarters in Cyprus, Greece, France, and elsewhere for the war to finish. One uncle kept telling me how, some thirty years earlier, when the rich Palestinians fled to Lebanon, they considered it a very temporary solution (most of those still alive are still there, six decades later). Yet when I asked him if it was going to be the same with our conflict, he replied, “No, of course not. This place is different; it has always been different.” Somehow what he detected in others did not seem to apply to him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 21 hours ago, macca13 said: Unfortunately I’m buying a house in Spain.. If things go south (literally) I will fly out to live on a peasants wage but mortgage free.. if the government dean my skills and services replaceable and therefore not worthy of a home of my own I will leave the country.. ?? looking at the current trend we should reach 1000 stabbing’s a year in London in no time, most of my friends and family have already left.. Why 'unfortunately'? Enough money is enough? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 On 20/02/2018 at 1:44 AM, Sugarlips said: Suggs has lived in the same east london terrace since the 80s, he's happy with his lot (although he did have a foray into a holiday house in southern Italy for a bit) all in al, he seems like a good down to earth bloke not interested in a Chelsea mansion/tractor etc considering his wealth and success, good on him Good on him...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 It's my first post here and I love polls, sadly though I cannot vote because I quite simply have no idea, not even an educated guess. I know this though, the UK is deep inside an immoral property crisis where governments from at least the last three administrations will look you in the eye and ignore the problems as they shed a false tear and give a band aid. The UK went All In to use a poker phrase at least a decade ago, governments are now doomed if they build homes or doomed if they don't, sadly the deciding factor is the power of the banks and their tribe of property owners and even landlords they belong to. So if a property crash does come along, and there is no reason why it cannot happen it will nearly certainly be an unplanned event, rewarding average working young people(under 40) who pay taxes and have aspiration and want to give to society are now unseen and unheard. If a hero ex SAS who was one of the guys who stormed the Iranian embassy in those iconic photos cannot get the crappiest of housing in the UK as was homeless until a public shaming in the media turned things around, what chance do we have, they will NEVER build homes. I am personally of the belief and probably 65% plus certain that personal and public debt will in someway bring the housing market down with it all starting around a failing economy. The UK, the place where the world floods to with the legal and illegal money will be left as they turn to a number of better places in the world which are probably already naturally more beautiful, even in the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 22 minutes ago, inbruges said: It's my first post here and I love polls, sadly though I cannot vote because I quite simply have no idea, not even an educated guess. I know this though, the UK is deep inside an immoral property crisis where governments from at least the last three administrations will look you in the eye and ignore the problems as they shed a false tear and give a band aid. The UK went All In to use a poker phrase at least a decade ago, governments are now doomed if they build homes or doomed if they don't, sadly the deciding factor is the power of the banks and their tribe of property owners and even landlords they belong to. So if a property crash does come along, and there is no reason why it cannot happen it will nearly certainly be an unplanned event, rewarding average working young people(under 40) who pay taxes and have aspiration and want to give to society are now unseen and unheard. If a hero ex SAS who was one of the guys who stormed the Iranian embassy in those iconic photos cannot get the crappiest of housing in the UK as was homeless until a public shaming in the media turned things around, what chance do we have, they will NEVER build homes. I am personally of the belief and probably 65% plus certain that personal and public debt will in someway bring the housing market down with it all starting around a failing economy. The UK, the place where the world floods to with the legal and illegal money will be left as they turn to a number of better places in the world which are probably already naturally more beautiful, even in the EU. I could not edit this post and left out the most important bit, governments of the type we have been used to will hold off for a lifetime building good clean decent affordable housing or be part of a system that does, i.e release a tiny proportion of UK land and housing problems would end this year. If it means prices falling they will live with people dying even, which I think is happening now, but lets don't go into that just yet. I am hoping someone at some point will come along with some real vision, I have about £85,000 saved right now, and I am proud of the blood, sweat and tears it took to get it. I am not handing it over while at the same time borrowing my life away for what someone could could get free on housing benefit. I am ready to hand over that money as I am sure millions of others are, I just need a little land which I am and all of us are entitled to build a home and a stake in my country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maynardgravy Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 On 19/02/2018 at 8:24 PM, Bear Hug said: Pessimistic 3 years. While the signs are there, loss aversion slows everything down. Even when panic selling starts, I expect initial discounts to be low. Before any proper crash happens, I expect to start seeing a flood of auctions of ex-BTL shitholes. Not happy to wait but with my current rent being roughly equal to (historically lowest) mortgage interest on a similar property, I am going to "hold" given current environment of potentially falling prices and rising interest rates. Surely it depends where you are? Ask someone in Chelsea and they would have to say (albeit reluctantly) they are inside a crash right now. link Greater London is on the edge. This Spring/Summer will tell us where we stand. If we get an IR rise before then, then it's definitely on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 (edited) All down to the lenders willingness to lend, how much, to who, for what price.......thing being falling prices will only mean reducing equity, less willingness to lend high loan to value.....greater risk for them, when they might want or need the money back......higher risk = higher interest rate. = Lower prices........piece of string. Edited February 21, 2018 by winkie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scramz Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 On 20/02/2018 at 6:04 AM, bivvy said: WHAT? So all the sheeple who bought at historic LOWEST ever IR ....lets say for augments sake they have mortgage rate of 1.5% when IR go up to 3% ...they are F&**%@! 3% is verrrrry easy to happen over the next couple of years....AND that my friend is DOUBLE repayments! poor saps! HOW MANY WOULD THEN ...hand the keys back??????????? THE CRASH is coming within the next 2 years for SURE I doubt people will be f****** at 3%. 1.5% to 3% doesn't double your monthly repayments, more like £100-150 a month on a £200k mortgage..... In fact, depending on borrowing, should be able to comfortably afford it following stress tests when applying for a mortgage. Crash season will need well over 5-6%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Scramz said: I doubt people will be f****** at 3%. 1.5% to 3% doesn't double your monthly repayments, more like £100-150 a month on a £200k mortgage..... In fact, depending on borrowing, should be able to comfortably afford it following stress tests when applying for a mortgage. Crash season will need well over 5-6%. the landlords will bring it down. with over leveraged properties and falling rents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scramz Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, longgone said: the landlords will bring it down. with over leveraged properties and falling rents. Wouldn't they just sell to someone else who has access to loads of credit at low rates? Would be no need to panic sell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, longgone said: the landlords will bring it down. with over leveraged properties and falling rents. They pushed it up so I expect you are right, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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