giggler000 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 07/09/2017 at 9:01 AM, TheCountOfNowhere said: +100000000 We've just had an offer on a house in France accepted. We're off, for the same reasons. I'd rather take my chances there than here Bonne chance avec votre nouvelle vie dans la ville de brouillard, mais ne nous oubliez pas dweebs dans ye'old blighty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giggler000 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 hours ago, wotsthat said: You are saying average prices will rise to about £500,000 and then drop to £250,000 Elaborate? If that does happen (I'm not that lucky generally so read as likely to happen), then we'll be no better off even after a HPC because we can't afford here now at these prices, doubling and then halfing isn't going to cut it. Think I'm gonna be joining count and all those thousands of migrants that France takes in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houseface2000 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 hours ago, giggler000 said: If that does happen (I'm not that lucky generally so read as likely to happen), then we'll be no better off even after a HPC because we can't afford here now at these prices, doubling and then halfing isn't going to cut it. Think I'm gonna be joining count and all those thousands of migrants that France takes in. That will probably be the cruel twist of hpc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledMatty Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 14 hours ago, DrBuyToLeech said: 14 hours ago, Patient London FTB said: You're describing what happened to London after 2008. The result is developers overdoing it on luxury flats and the UK govt ratcheting up stamp duty to pluck some cash out of foreign buyers' pockets. We're just waiting for the effect of the glut to take its toll on prices. Bailouts made it a safe haven. Our rule of law makes the UK a very safe haven. This will not change. There will still be full page ads in the Singapore Straits Times for safe haven UK property, and the last time I saw one it featured Leicester! No doubt cleverly put in knowing how EPL mad Singaporeans are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BorrowToLeech Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 (edited) 7 hours ago, ExiledMatty said: Our rule of law makes the UK a very safe haven. This will not change. There will still be full page ads in the Singapore Straits Times for safe haven UK property, and the last time I saw one it featured Leicester! No doubt cleverly put in knowing how EPL mad Singaporeans are. No, in this specific instance it was bailouts. Sure, our government is stable and meets the needs of foreign money launderers like no other, but that applies to all investment classes - gold held in uk vaults, uk stocks and bonds, companies, and so on. No one chooses a safe-haven 'investment' that is plummeting in value, as uk real estate would certainly have been after 2008. The subsequent foreign landlording is precisely the kind of moral hazard that was warned about - and then ignored - at the time. Edit: also this 'rule of law' cliche, is a euphemism isn't it? It just means corrupt, basically. Edited September 10, 2017 by DrBuyToLeech Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 (edited) 9 hours ago, ExiledMatty said: Our rule of law makes the UK a very safe haven. This will not change. There will still be full page ads in the Singapore Straits Times for safe haven UK property, and the last time I saw one it featured Leicester! No doubt cleverly put in knowing how EPL mad Singaporeans are. I think the 'safe haven' argument is an important argument and that there is a great deal of truth in it. One of the ways to interpret the disparity between HPI in London and the South East since 2008 versus ten years of essentially static prices in most of the rest of the country is that in London you have lots of investor demand from people who expect capital gains (and thus are willing to invest on a basis where the investment just washes its face when revenues are weighed against costs). However, that means that the investment is treading the line between speculative financing and Ponzi financing (as labelled by Minsky). Quote The second, speculative financing, is a bit riskier: firms rely on their cashflow to repay the interest on their borrowings but must roll over their debt to repay the principal. This should be manageable as long as the economy functions smoothly, but a downturn could cause distress. The third, Ponzi financing, is the most dangerous. Cashflow covers neither principal nor interest; firms are betting only that the underlying asset will appreciate by enough to cover their liabilities. If that fails to happen, they will be left exposed. Source: Minsky's moment, The Economist, 30 July 2016 Further if the speculators' assessment of their income side of their cash flow is out of whack (and h/t to Patient London FTB inter alia for lots of posts the contents of which suggest that something is up with lots of London developments sold to overseas investors) then you have a situation where people were kidding themselves that they were using speculative financing (the investment washes its face) when in fact they are engaging in Ponzi financing. The fact of sterling's post-referendum slump just makes matters worse for those who made their initial investment with funds that were originally saved in another currency (and goodness knows if there is also some currency mismatch on some of the borrowings too). The reason why London flats bought off plan may turn out to be a very poor safe haven is that the rule of law is cold comfort if you are buying in at the top of a bubble; the threat to your investment is not that somebody will confiscate your property - the threat to your investment is that you've leveraged into the wrong market at the wrong price at the wrong time. Edited September 10, 2017 by Bland Unsight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledMatty Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I think a lot of these Far East investors are in UK property for the long game so wouldn't even blink at high % falls. Their primary concern is getting money out of their countries and away from authoritarian governments. Pretty much all nations in Southeast Asia are losing or have no democracy. Then you have the biggest non democracy of them all just to the north! Make no mistake, there is a lot of capital in the Far East looking for a safe home. Then you have the Middle East, Russia and increasingly Africa and Latam! It's no coincidence that the likes of Aus, Can and NZ all share this issue, as they also share the safe haven tag. I even think being English speaking nations makes us more attractive to investment. Democracy around the globe is being eroded and I can't see this trend reversing as Govts demand more power and influence. This will only add more pressure on safe havens. The only solution is heavy tax or legislation. The UK Govt will not be acting anytime soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, ExiledMatty said: I think a lot of these Far East investors are in UK property for the long game so wouldn't even blink at high % falls. Fine by me. Much easier for the UK government to let the housing bubble burst if the main loser is going to be upper middle class Singaporeans who have no vote in the UK. Somebody is going to be holding these assets as they fall in price, might as well be Far Eastern property speculators. Edited September 11, 2017 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 3 hours ago, ExiledMatty said: I think a lot of these Far East investors are in UK property for the long game so wouldn't even blink at high % falls. Their primary concern is getting money out of their countries and away from authoritarian governments. Pretty much all nations in Southeast Asia are losing or have no democracy. Then you have the biggest non democracy of them all just to the north! Make no mistake, there is a lot of capital in the Far East looking for a safe home. Then you have the Middle East, Russia and increasingly Africa and Latam! It's no coincidence that the likes of Aus, Can and NZ all share this issue, as they also share the safe haven tag. I even think being English speaking nations makes us more attractive to investment. Democracy around the globe is being eroded and I can't see this trend reversing as Govts demand more power and influence. This will only add more pressure on safe havens. The only solution is heavy tax or legislation. The UK Govt will not be acting anytime soon. Spurious facile argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 6 hours ago, ExiledMatty said: I think.... Do you know ? Facts ? Links ? Please. I suspect your right, but I think my c**k is huge, but without you seeing it you probably wont agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePrufeshanul Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 As ever, on HPC, it depends on his interest rates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broken biscuit Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: I think my c**k is huge, but without you seeing it you probably wont agree. Your wife laughed when I showed her that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, Broken biscuit said: Your wife laughed when I showed her that. Yours screamed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sPinwheel Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 6 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: I think my c**k is huge Only one way to confirm. Pictures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houseface2000 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, sPinwheel said: Only one way to confirm. Pictures. Preferably next to a 50p piece for scale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewig Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 it looks bigger in my right hand but still Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 28 minutes ago, thewig said: it looks bigger in my right hand but still No, it's much bigger than that, it's seriously massive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 14 hours ago, ExiledMatty said: I think a lot of these Far East investors are in UK property for the long game so wouldn't even blink at high % falls. Their primary concern is getting money out of their countries and away from authoritarian governments. Pretty much all nations in Southeast Asia are losing or have no democracy. Then you have the biggest non democracy of them all just to the north! Make no mistake, there is a lot of capital in the Far East looking for a safe home. Then you have the Middle East, Russia and increasingly Africa and Latam! It's no coincidence that the likes of Aus, Can and NZ all share this issue, as they also share the safe haven tag. I even think being English speaking nations makes us more attractive to investment. Democracy around the globe is being eroded and I can't see this trend reversing as Govts demand more power and influence. This will only add more pressure on safe havens. The only solution is heavy tax or legislation. The UK Govt will not be acting anytime soon. I am sure you are right....HPI is the cherry on the cake to them.....too much money what home to put it in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sPinwheel Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: No, it's much bigger than that, it's seriously massive You said c**k, not a**hole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 2 hours ago, sPinwheel said: You said c**k, not a**hole. Proper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledMatty Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Lots of folk here with their head in the sand. Some would seriously benefit from seeing a bit of the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macca13 Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 (edited) On 09/09/2017 at 0:38 PM, houseface2000 said: Just saying I think prices are will go higher before crashing. Credit card debt higher than 2007 private debt higher than 2007 government debt higher than 2007 student debt... etc its all higher.. growth and low unemployment all propped up by QE and benefits.. China have to invest $8 to make $1 of return.. there economy is a basket case.. i don't know what will happen but this debt experiment can't end well.. Edited September 12, 2017 by macca13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houseface2000 Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 1 hour ago, macca13 said: Credit card debt higher than 2007 private debt higher than 2007 government debt higher than 2007 student debt... etc its all higher.. growth and low unemployment all propped up by QE and benefits.. China have to invest $8 to make $1 of return.. there economy is a basket case.. i don't know what will happen but this debt experiment can't end well.. Yes there is a trend of increasing debt levels, which in my opinion will continue. We have a debt based money system so it's more of the same to get growth or the elites change the global monetary system that impowers them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 2 hours ago, macca13 said: Credit card debt higher than 2007 private debt higher than 2007 government debt higher than 2007 student debt... etc its all higher.. growth and low unemployment all propped up by QE and benefits.. China have to invest $8 to make $1 of return.. there economy is a basket case.. i don't know what will happen but this debt experiment can't end well.. Missed off....disposable income lower, savings non-existent for most people and inflation at 2.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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