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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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2 minutes ago, allfiredup said:

If predicting the country will "fall off a cliff etc" after brexit is threatening violence also, then sure...

It's not a prediction, or a threat, it is a consequence of an action we have decided to take.

And its already happening, we are already £40bn a year poorer and haven't even left yet.  

 

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8 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

...and what happens after no deal?  There has to be a deal at some point..

There has to be a deal.....we are all interdependent.....nobody thrives well on their own, it is in our best interests that our neighbours prosper, then good fortune and well being can rub off each other....;)

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10 minutes ago, crouch said:

No deal refers to leaving the EU on 29 March without a WA. That means that we would continue trading with the EU on some agreed basis in the interim (I can't define what the "interim" would be) until we actually agreed a comprehensive trade agreement at some future date.

What agreed basis. 

We would have to negotiate almost instant deals with the EU from a position of extreme weakness. This would spill over into whatever long term agreement we would eventually reach.  

And of course it is not just the EU, it would be a fantastic opportunity for our other significant trade partners to get advantageous deals from us.

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1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What agreed basis. 

We would have to negotiate almost instant deals with the EU from a position of extreme weakness. This would spill over into whatever long term agreement we would eventually reach.  

And of course it is not just the EU, it would be a fantastic opportunity for our other significant trade partners to get advantageous deals from us.

Our position will be stronger, not weaker, once we leave with no deal.

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4 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Thankfully no one is scared of you and your ilk. Thankfully no one will pander to your fascism. Don’t forget to wear your silly little hi-viz. 

Belittling another nations domestic problems is just giving dishonest brexiters more ammunition. Don't do it.

@allfiredup is already trying to do this. It's dishonest and unsavoury, but it works. You're just feeding them. 

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2 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Belittling another nations domestic problems is just giving dishonest brexiters more ammunition. Don't do it.

@allfiredup is already trying to do this. It's dishonest and unsavoury, but it works. You're just feeding them. 

That this is not related is just your opinion.

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22 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What agreed basis. 

We would have to negotiate almost instant deals with the EU from a position of extreme weakness. This would spill over into whatever long term agreement we would eventually reach.  

And of course it is not just the EU, it would be a fantastic opportunity for our other significant trade partners to get advantageous deals from us.

The obvious basis is just to continue as we have before 29 March or some other that is well, agreed.

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7 hours ago, rollover said:

    I’m sorry but I disagree with you on this.

Why are you doing the same thing time and time again and expecting different result?

The NINo registrations of EU and non EU citizens is not accurate measure of immigration into UK.

But you already know that, do you not?

I'm challenging a narrative and, to date, I've not been persuaded otherwise.

Perhaps you would like to continue from where you left off last time?

 

On ‎23‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 17:28, Sheeple Splinter said:

No, you missed my point, which was...

… and will result in peaks/troughs in the future just like the peak shown in the linked graph.

Many thanks for the offer of help. :) 

Can you reconcile the difference between these NINo figures (below) and the MSQR 11/18 figures?

image.png.e8ee62899160422ca47389e7b28185b7.png

 

Figure 4: EU and non-EU long-term immigration for work-related reasons, UK, year ending June 2008 to year ending June 2018

image.png.332272059bf2e22efeca4b6d38bf3d0a.png

 

 

On ‎24‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 14:19, rollover said:

The ONS migration figures are more accurate. The NI charts are not good to use for migration figures.

1. The NI number is delayed.

2. It doesn't show the numbers of migrants leaving, and it is not possible to figure out net migration number.

3. Non EU migrants, including students and non working family members, are probably less likely to register for NI.

4. There are probably repeated applications. A while back,  I worked with Romanian guy. He had to applied 11 times go get  NI.

 

On ‎24‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 23:16, Sheeple Splinter said:

No, the ONS figures are not more accurate.

The NINO charts are an excellent record of non-uk citizens applying for a NINO. Do you understand what the benefits of registering and receiving a NINO means for a person ?

1. Do you mean the NINO figure should be higher for all?

2. Well, that contradicts your first sentence!

3. Maybe, but why is the EU rate so much higher than the MSQR figure?

4. But, after 11 attempts he received just one NINO?

For reference:

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Now you are just being silly. 

My reasoning is as follows.

WRT negotiating with the EU there are no preconditions or strings to bind us to BINO.

WRT negotiating with the rest of the World, they will know we are committed to agreeing trade deals. Where as right now they think we might stay in the CU.

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2 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

It isn't good for the UK and it wasn't when JLR and Ford production moved to the EU. 

Do you still believe Brexit is the reason for Honda's decision to quit?

Honda quit because Honda got a good deal with the EU.....;)

Edited by winkie
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4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

On your part it certainly does.

1. You seem unable to understand that the figures show the number of NINOs which were active at some point during the year, not at any single point in time; and because of that overstate the actual numbers.

2. The conclusion of the report is that there is no "huge" scale understatement as is often  claimed - although it concedes that it suggest there may be some  (if you recall I did explain where that some most likely comes from).

3.You seen to make a quite a habit of misinterpreting information and being unable to admit to getting things wrong.

As I said in my last post if you want the ONS position clarified ask them.

      

1. :blink: Do you want rethink this?

2. Link please and are you referring to the Romanians?

3. I disagree but I happy to be persuaded otherwise.

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1 hour ago, allfiredup said:

Complete nonsense. 

On the ERG, you sound like every remainer on TV. You could just as easily argue it's become about leaving on the reminer MP's terms. 

And what disgust of the other 27? This is about the EU, not europeans. Stop trying to stir up trouble.

Well of course - not everybody has had a brain wipe and been programmed  with no-deal tripe. Not everybody is indulging in infantile wailing about the EU punishing us, or Merkel or Macron or fecking Catalonia. 

Four weeks left - enough time for the Tories to escape from under the heel of Bluekip ?

 

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