Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[billybong]

Why do you, and many others, call statements of fact threats. Would you prefer being lied to.

Indeed there are likely very very many that think so - maybe the majority - but nevertheless they still voted Leave the eu despite it. It's a threat and not necessarily a fact. It's very doubtful that there's even a queue as such - that's just another invention. The reason politicians make threats and make up stuff is pretty obvious but he won't be Mr President for long now and other US politicians won't necessarily take that line with a US ally.

What? lied to by politicians - whatever next Is there a choice in the matter.

Edited September 5, 2016 by billybong

[canbuywontbuy]

Indeed there are likely very very many that think so - maybe the majority - but nevertheless they still voted Leave the eu despite it. It's a threat and not necessarily a fact. It's very doubtful that there's even a queue as such - that's just another invention. The reason politicians make threats and make up stuff is pretty obvious but he won't be Mr President for long now and other US politicians won't necessarily take that line with a US ally.

What? lied to by politicians - whatever next Is there a choice in the matter.

Quite. It's irrelevant what Obama says. I'd even say it's irrelevant that Trump invited Farage to speak at a rally.

[ccc]

My lawyer friend won't be involved so has no ax to grind. To give you some idea of how silly it is to expect that a national trade deal could be completed in months. He is currently in the middle of drawing up the contract for an IT outsourcing deal that is expected to take well over two years to complete.

The drawing up of a contract is taking two years ? What a laugh this is.

Your pal is clearly taking the piss to milk their client. Either that or they can't do their job properly.

Two years. What a funny one.

[ccc]

Why do you, and many others, call statements of fact threats. Would you prefer being lied to.

As others have said - where is this "queue" ? What does it consist of ? Where is it stored ? How is it updated ? What form is it in ? Is it made public ? Where can we view this ?

The above cannot be answered to save you the bother. Because it doesn't exist.

[ccc]

Your friend should tell them to "Ram it 100%" Simples. That'll sort it.

Yep. Anyone accepting a two year wait for a single IT contract to be set up is an absolute idiot.

Do you disagree ?

[ccc]

Come on - where is this 'queue' for us to view !!

It is a 'fact' apparently. So a quick google should be simple enough to provide us with some actual evidence.....

[Riedquat]

If I recall you live in the country because you don't like the hustle and numbers of cities (which is entirely your right) but please don't project what you hold of value as something I should also hold of value

I'd be fine with that if what you hold of value wasn't so damaging and unsustainable (keep it up and it'll hit the point where even you'll start having problems with it).

The "that's just different values" line is always a cop-out. Might as well accept Islamic State, or Tony Blair, with "well, they've just got different values."

I've said before that roughly equal in all directions freedom of movement is fine - it doesn't add to the population and provides opportunities, and that was pretty much where the EU was before its ill-advised expansion - it needs to be between roughly equivalent countries to work. But what we've got now isn't that. Don't hide behind "well those are my values, don't project yours on to them." Perhaps you should take a closer look at your values and what they're doing.

Edited September 5, 2016 by Riedquat

[Royw6]

I'd be fine with that if what you hold of value wasn't so damaging and unsustainable (keep it up and it'll hit the point where even you'll start having problems with it).

The "that's just different values" line is always a cop-out. Might as well accept Islamic State, or Tony Blair, with "well, they've just got different values."

I've said before that roughly equal in all directions freedom of movement is fine - it doesn't add to the population and provides opportunities, and that was pretty much where the EU was before its ill-advised expansion - it needs to be between roughly equivalent countries to work. But what we've got now isn't that. Don't hide behind "well those are my values, don't project yours on to them." Perhaps you should take a closer look at your values and what they're doing.

I don't think johnny does values, just attacks others for holding them. Edited September 5, 2016 by Royw6

[ccc]

I'd be fine with that if what you hold of value wasn't so damaging and unsustainable (keep it up and it'll hit the point where even you'll start having problems with it).

The "that's just different values" line is always a cop-out. Might as well accept Islamic State, or Tony Blair, with "well, they've just got different values."

I've said before that roughly equal in all directions freedom of movement is fine - it doesn't add to the population and provides opportunities, and that was pretty much where the EU was before its ill-advised expansion - it needs to be between roughly equivalent countries to work. But what we've got now isn't that. Don't hide behind "well those are my values, don't project yours on to them." Perhaps you should take a closer look at your values and what they're doing.

Agree. Before the expansion - the movement thing was very low on most people's agendas. It just wasnt a big issue.

[Riedquat]

Agree. Before the expansion - the movement thing was very low on most people's agendas. It just wasnt a big issue.

Indeed, I'd even say it was a positive thing then. The price to pay for freedom of movement with another country should be to help it get up to the stage where there isn't any real incentive for large shifts in one direction. It's a nice ideal and can work in the right circumstances, but not all circumstances.

[london_thirtythree]

Yep. Anyone accepting a two year wait for a single IT contract to be set up is an absolute idiot.

Do you disagree ?

In theory, this is absolutely right - two years is too long to do anything. (chances are in the IT Industry, half the people involved will have moved on by then!)

But... it still happens way more often that you would think - no one ever lost money by over estimating large corporate inertia.

Half of the current profitability of the cloud is often finding sneaky ways around this inertia.

[olliegog]

should Obama not be referring to a 'queue' but a 'line up'? (Off topic I know )

[NuBrit]

It's been a bad couple of days for Brexit supporters:

Obama making clear the UK will be damaged by leaving the single market, and confirming that yes we are at the back of the queue for trade talks

Japan publishing a direct warning that we need to stay in the single market if we want to keep Japanese companies in the UK

Even the Russians saying Brexit will weaken both the UK and Europe

Theresa May trying to look happy learning her new place on the world stage, second row far off to one side

Even the Daily Mail seems to be having doubts. 3 articles questioning Brexit in the printed edition (I feel the need to point out I only saw this because the wife bought one for the £5 House of Fraser voucher)

Also I liked the story that after Trump was called Mr Brexit he asked one of his aides if that was a good thing, response was not really it's a Clusterf**k (no idea if its true or not but quite funny so who cares).

It's an absolute clusterf*ck all right, and the longer we drag it out, the worse it gets for us.

I have a few friends in London working for some of the big foreign banks, and they tell me that any new work or plans are basically on hold right now. I imagine the situation is the same for a significant amount of other foreign companies, whether it's a car maker or a bank. I think a lot of people are being foxed by the bounce we got from the interest rate cut. People don't seem to realise that capital spending isn't something that is turned on or off like a tap, it's something that usually takes months/years from when a decision is made until it gets fed through. 2017 could bring us some very nasty surprises if we start on the path towards a "hard" Brexit. Right now, we need to secure freedom of movement/capital, that in turn should allow us to apply EFTA membership, which should be enough to guarantee passporting. If we get that, the economy is fine and the Brexit people technically get what they want as politically speaking, we are out of the EU. If you ask me, any vote on an economic withdrawal from the EU should require a referendum.

[Confusion of VIs]

CoVI, you've mentioned before you'd prefer FOM to be replaced by some kind of application process.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread/page-226#entry1103077242

May is already talking about work permits, which are actually in principle stricter than a points system:-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/04/g20-summit-theresa-may-ready-to-block-boris-johnsons-point-based/

So what's not to like here CoVI? You get what you wanted - you want a more skilled migrant and you want them to not have access to benefits, and I presume the government will make this a natural requirement via a permit system that they must have zero recourse to public funds (it already is the case for non-EU settlement visas).

Personally for me, FOM is the central reason I voted Brexit. I will get what I wanted from my vote. I suspect there are many other Brexiteers who are satisfied with the explicit and unequivocal statements being made by May on FOM. Frankly, I'll take the lumps and bumps IF there are trade deals we lose out on. Fine. I don't think it will happen, but if it does, so long as FOM is removed, and so long as immigrants who are already in the UK must pass very strict qualifications to have any kind of access to public funds (including being a net contributor already over X years), I'm a happy Brexiteer.

Again, this is something I believe you've said you are for. If you are not for this, please say so and say why you are happy that immigrants - even if they've been here for just a few months or a year - can receive WTC, HB and CB. I don't believe that is your stance by the way, but please be clear here for the record.

FOM is damaging the UK's wage growth, jobs market and infrastructure, adding to monthly net borrowing, while exarcebating the problems of the housing market. Removing FOM helps reduce the aforementioned problems significantly. I also think the UK's problems will get WORSE while the toxic combination of FOM and a generous benefits system are allowed to continue as they are. Everyday, more damage is happening to the UK. Brexit will fix this problem. Job done in my view.

It seems your central idea for voting to Remain was that good 'ol Dave was going to do us a deal? That's it? As I say, I'm glad we're not here discussing Dodgy Dave and his useless negotiating skills.

To be clear. I think we should have free movement of labour but that rights to benefits (inc working benefits and housing) should come with citizenship and not be available for at least 5 years. This would both have stopped the flow of benefit seeking migrants and put UK nationals at an advantage in the job low/middle skills market. I do believe this would have been delivered with a Remain vote, it had strong domestic support and unequivocal backing from all 27 other heads of state.

My beef with Brexit is not that I don't want to solve the problems that caused people to vote Leave, I just think that there are other better ways of doing this especially as many of those perceived issues were the result of home grown policies. Surely at some point Brexit supporters must ask why the rest of the world is so united in thinking Brexit is a bad thing that will damage seriously trade and the UK.

We should have stayed in the EU, banked Cameron's deal and fought for further reform. Particularly the completion of the single market in services which would have been hugely beneficial to the UK. Instead we might face 5 to 10 years more of the status quo while the Brexit deal is being negotiated.

[Confusion of VIs]

As others have said - where is this "queue" ? What does it consist of ? Where is it stored ? How is it updated ? What form is it in ? Is it made public ? Where can we view this ?

The above cannot be answered to save you the bother. Because it doesn't exist.

Well Mr Obama said it does and gave the outline order

1 Sort out the EU deal - that could still be years in itself

2 Sort out deals with the Pacific rim countries - who knows how long that could take

[Bloo Loo]

It's been a bad couple of days for Brexit supporters:

Obama making clear the UK will be damaged by leaving the single market, and confirming that yes we are at the back of the queue for trade talks

Japan publishing a direct warning that we need to stay in the single market if we want to keep Japanese companies in the UK

Even the Russians saying Brexit will weaken both the UK and Europe

Theresa May trying to look happy learning her new place on the world stage, second row far off to one side

Even the Daily Mail seems to be having doubts. 3 articles questioning Brexit in the printed edition (I feel the need to point out I only saw this because the wife bought one for the £5 House of Fraser voucher)

Also I liked the story that after Trump was called Mr Brexit he asked one of his aides if that was a good thing, response was not really it's a Clusterf**k (no idea if its true or not but quite funny so who cares).

All good news. Obama is a lame duck, and a killer besides, setting off part of the EU influx of immgrants with his attack on Libya, formerly a great Western Client...Thousands of EU jobs lost as infrastructure projects in Libya Halted with bombs.

Note, it is Governments making these comments, not Companies..Companies trade wherever they can. Governments Bull Shit wherever they can.

Theresa May is being spoken to, whereas before, she was just another member state of a failing Union.

Of course, a smaller team is weaker. Well done the Russians for speaking the obvious truth. But, we wont be in the EU, which is trying to intimidate the Russian Bear...The army is NATO, and we are in NATO....

None of your bad news is anything but Politicians fearmongering...

As for the Trump "news" you cant verify the story...most stories about Trump are false, as were the stories about Brexit.

Edited September 5, 2016 by Bloo Loo

[Confusion of VIs]

Indeed there are likely very very many that think so - maybe the majority - but nevertheless they still voted Leave the eu despite it. It's a threat and not necessarily a fact. It's very doubtful that there's even a queue as such - that's just another invention. The reason politicians make threats and make up stuff is pretty obvious but he won't be Mr President for long now and other US politicians won't necessarily take that line with a US ally.

What? lied to by politicians - whatever next Is there a choice in the matter.

Lets look at the reality.

TTIP is far more important to the US than any trade deal with the UK. Its origin goes back to the 90s but you could probably say that 2006, when Merkel made it a priority, was a reasonable de facto starting point. Like most trade negotiations it has taken longer than expected to conclude and it is now widely thought that this will not happen until around 2020.

The US has for several years made clear that after completing TTIP its next priority is to extend its transpacific trade deals. Again this is of far more strategic importance to the US than any UK deal. Lets assume they do this really quickly and get it concluded in 10 years.

Assuming the US, as it always does puts its own interests first, we can be reasonably sure that neither of these deals will be interrupted to squeeze in a UK deal, irrespective of who is President; so in all likelihood we are looking at the 2030s for taking forward the UK deal.

[dances with sheeple]

It's an absolute clusterf*ck all right, and the longer we drag it out, the worse it gets for us.

I have a few friends in London working for some of the big foreign banks, and they tell me that any new work or plans are basically on hold right now. I imagine the situation is the same for a significant amount of other foreign companies, whether it's a car maker or a bank. I think a lot of people are being foxed by the bounce we got from the interest rate cut. People don't seem to realise that capital spending isn't something that is turned on or off like a tap, it's something that usually takes months/years from when a decision is made until it gets fed through. 2017 could bring us some very nasty surprises if we start on the path towards a "hard" Brexit. Right now, we need to secure freedom of movement/capital, that in turn should allow us to apply EFTA membership, which should be enough to guarantee passporting. If we get that, the economy is fine and the Brexit people technically get what they want as politically speaking, we are out of the EU. If you ask me, any vote on an economic withdrawal from the EU should require a referendum.

So you think banks in London are the UK economy? This is why people voted for Brexit, don`t you get it?

[Confusion of VIs]

All good news. Obama is a lame duck, and a killer besides, setting off part of the EU influx of immgrants with his attack on Libya, formerly a great Western Client...Thousands of EU jobs lost as infrastructure projects in Libya Halted with bombs.

Note, it is Governments making these comments, not Companies..Companies trade wherever they can. Governments Bull Shit wherever they can.

, whereas before, she was just another member state of a failing Union.

Of course, a smaller team is weaker. Well done the Russians for speaking the obvious truth. But, we wont be in the EU, which is trying to intimidate the Russian Bear...The army is NATO, and we are in NATO....

None of your bad news is anything but Politicians fearmongering...

As for the Trump "news" you cant verify the story...most stories about Trump are false, as were the stories about Brexit.

It was the UK and France that proposed a led the Libya campaign. not the USA.

The governments are representing many of their largest companies who are afraid loss of membership of the single market will make their UK investments/operations unviable.

Theresa May is being spoken to - true let's hope she is listening

Edited September 5, 2016 by Confusion of VIs

[NuBrit]

So you think banks in London are the UK economy?

I never said that.

[billybong]

It's an absolute clusterf*ck all right, and the longer we drag it out, the worse it gets for us.

I have a few friends in London working for some of the big foreign banks, and they tell me that any new work or plans are basically on hold right now. I imagine the situation is the same for a significant amount of other foreign companies, whether it's a car maker or a bank. I think a lot of people are being foxed by the bounce we got from the interest rate cut. People don't seem to realise that capital spending isn't something that is turned on or off like a tap, it's something that usually takes months/years from when a decision is made until it gets fed through. 2017 could bring us some very nasty surprises if we start on the path towards a "hard" Brexit. Right now, we need to secure freedom of movement/capital, that in turn should allow us to apply EFTA membership, which should be enough to guarantee passporting. If we get that, the economy is fine and the Brexit people technically get what they want as politically speaking, we are out of the EU. If you ask me, any vote on an economic withdrawal from the EU should require a referendum.

Presumably just dispensing with the treaties after 1986 (Maastricht onwards) would effect eu Leave for Britain and then some amendments to the 1986 Single European Act would achieve something nearer what most British people thought/were told they were voting for in 1975 (the belated Common Market referendum). That would solve the sovereignty issue (Leave) and there wouldn't be an economic withdrawal - it might need a new eu/Britain treaty to cover it all.

The recent apparent uplift in the economy reported a few days ago is unlikely to be to do with the recent base rate reduction a month ago as I believe the figures were for a period before the rate reduction and in any event any base rate reductions are supposed to take several months to stand a chance of working and showing through in the actual financial figures. If a rate reduction was necessary then Carney might have been doing a better job announcing it as soon as the date of the vote was announced by Cameron maybe on the basis of the risk of some turbulence in the possible transition period if the vote was to leave.

Then if the vote had been to remain he could have immediately put them back up again (as he apparently thinks staying in the eu is so good for the economy). In reality the rate reduction was nothing to do with Brexit and looks more like a knee jerk response to something he might have seen coming along the pipeline as a result of past decisions from when remain was strong odds on and their confidence was high to do whatever they pleased.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_Union_history

Edited September 5, 2016 by billybong

[Confusion of VIs]

The drawing up of a contract is taking two years ? What a laugh this is.

Your pal is clearly taking the piss to milk their client. Either that or they can't do their job properly.

Two years. What a funny one.

Two years is not at all unusual for a large IT outsourcing contract. There is an awful lot of detail to go through and skimping on it more or less guarantees you will get shafted. You can safely assume that all the comments you see stating otherwise come from people with no actual knowledge/experience.

NB Cloud doesn't make any real difference as the base service provision negotiation is the easiest and most basic part of the contractual negotiations, probably less than 10% of the total.

[Confusion of VIs]

Indeed, I'd even say it was a positive thing then. The price to pay for freedom of movement with another country should be to help it get up to the stage where there isn't any real incentive for large shifts in one direction. It's a nice ideal and can work in the right circumstances, but not all circumstances.

We had those circumstances for a long time and should have fought to get them back, not flounced off blaming all of our failed domestic policies on the EU.

[Riedquat]

We had those circumstances for a long time and should have fought to get them back, not flounced off blaming all of our failed domestic policies on the EU.

The horse had well and truly bolted on that one. The only way to get them back would've been to chuck a load of newcomers out of the EU, and that simply wouldn't be possible. Given enough time they may reach the point where it's not an issue but there's not much sign that I can see that the EU is particularly interested in doing so, and because the shouldn't have ever joined in the first place it probably can't happen without dragging the rest down rather badly.

And drop any and all suggestions of ever closer integration.

[billybong]

Lets look at the reality.

TTIP is far more important to the US than any trade deal with the UK. Its origin goes back to the 90s but you could probably say that 2006, when Merkel made it a priority, was a reasonable de facto starting point. Like most trade negotiations it has taken longer than expected to conclude and it is now widely thought that this will not happen until around 2020.

The US has for several years made clear that after completing TTIP its next priority is to extend its transpacific trade deals. Again this is of far more strategic importance to the US than any UK deal. Lets assume they do this really quickly and get it concluded in 10 years.

Assuming the US, as it always does puts its own interests first, we can be reasonably sure that neither of these deals will be interrupted to squeeze in a UK deal, irrespective of who is President; so in all likelihood we are looking at the 2030s for taking forward the UK deal.

To be realistic if the US is putting its own interests first then the US will be dealing with its ally Britain in a timely manner suitable to both countries and not inventing ideas of queues etc and so on.