nome Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 (edited) http://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/666609/Top-London-house-prices-tumble-AGAIN-sparking-fears-of-crash This popped up when I googled house price crash to find this site. 2 hours old. I know its a rubbish paper ... Yes it is a rubbish paper, just like the rest of the MSM... but it's still a refreshing change to these articles creeping in instead of the endless HPI ramping propaganda that the masses are usually force fed.edit- crossed posts with Count, I promise I wasn't just repeating what he said almost word for word! Edited May 3, 2016 by mike74 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 http://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/666609/Top-London-house-prices-tumble-AGAIN-sparking-fears-of-crash This popped up when I googled house price crash to find this site. 2 hours old. I know its a rubbish paper ... Considering the hack is barely literate I'm not going to get too excited. Nonetheless, it's very nice to see, and a welcome change from this: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spunko2010 Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 The reason for the change of tune, surely must be a quiet nod from CCHQ. I can't think of any other reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 3, 2016 Author Share Posted May 3, 2016 Yes it is a rubbish paper, just like the rest of the MSM... but it's still a refreshing change to these articles creeping in instead of the endless HPI ramping propaganda that the masses are usually force fed. edit- crossed posts with Count, I promise I wasn't just repeating what he said almost word for word! You are the count and I claim my £10 mortgage debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 3, 2016 Author Share Posted May 3, 2016 (edited) This sort of story coming out, after we, here, have seen prices fall for 12 months+ is exactly the reason I started this thread. We're all sat here trying to work out why no one is seeing the same thing we are...well they have been....they've just been very very very quiet on it. I suspect TPTB know the crash is coming and they are preparing the gound....they'll blame BrExit or Non-BrExit. Take you pick. look around you...look at the insane prices..look at the s**t up for sale...look at the anger...look at who is buying...look at why they are buying...look at who is funding them... I had a displeasure of selling/looking to buy in 2007 and things are 10 times worse than they were then. I thought something was wrong then then it all crashed...now I know something is wrong.... This insanity is not going to go past the end of summer #Probably Edited May 3, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
streamingfreedom Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 It is a rubbish paper...but it IS a well read one.....theyve ramped on the way up and now thye have changed tact. The paper is rubbish but the meaning behind their change of tact is significant. It's massively significant. The express is a bit of a joke but as you say it is a well read paper, the core readership being older property owning retirees hence the three core headline types of Weather, Healthcare, and Property. This is also the demographic that make up Britain's 10th largest lender; The Bank of Mum and Dad, and this turnaround by the Express and Daily Mail will make them hold off on lending for now. This generation are not stupid and although they love HPI they will have memories of 1989 which was the only real crash that hurt them. Clearly TPTB have given the nod to MSM that now is the time to bring it down, the big players all safely out of property. As Venger always points out the BTL landlord is going to take the brunt of this crash, banks are in a better place than 2007. This change of tone by UK MSM means BOMAD, which was funding 25% of property transactions, is now closed for business. Brexit is hanging in the air as a perfect scapegoat for a market crash whether it is an in or out vote. I don't believe the government are interested in pumping this one any further; again they are not stupid, just greedy, and they know they've overcooked it and housing is hitting critical mass, and that housing affordability will be a key issue at the next election. In answer the the original question has the crash started, probably yes. If it hasn't then somebody fairly powerful and is trying to make it happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC1 Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 It's massively significant. . . Brexit is hanging in the air as a perfect scapegoat for a market crash whether it is an in or out vote. I don't believe the government are interested in pumping this one any further; again they are not stupid, just greedy, and they know they've overcooked it and housing is hitting critical mass, and that housing affordability will be a key issue at the next election. In answer the the original question has the crash started, probably yes. If it hasn't then somebody fairly powerful and is trying to make it happen. Yes, this is also my feeling. It was only ever a question of timing, and I was waiting to see stories like this in the MSM (sentiment being manipulated) to indicate when we might expect the market to be allowed (encouraged?!) to fall. It's far from certain, but I suspect we are going to see significant falls rippling out from London to the rest of the UK over the next year or two. They might have tricks in mind for preventing a massive correction, but it's far from clear whether these would be effective (99 year 100% mortgages etc). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 NO To answer the OP, I think we have 2-3 more years of madness before we are in crash territory. Wish it wasn't the case - I'd love it to crash today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moonriver Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 It's massively significant. .... Brexit is hanging in the air as a perfect scapegoat for a market crash whether it is an in or out vote. I don't believe the government are interested in pumping this one any further; Yes, never underestimate the importance of sentiment as far as housing is concerned. I agree the government have lost interest in pumping it up now, with the chance too many votes could be lost due to so many struggling to fund high housing costs .Baby boomers can now see their offspring struggling with rent or mortgage, or stuck living as adults in their family home. And as you say, all is in place time wise for this.... to blame a crash on the brexit uncertainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy Herts Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Something is definitely happening. There are now 3 houses for sale on my road in Hertfordshire. All 2 up 2 down Victorian terraced properties on the market for £420,000 (This time last year it would of been £360,000) All of them have been on the market for about 6 weeks. This time last year they would of been snapped up within a week. One of the houses has been under offer twice and obviously fell through for whatever reason. In the local area there are hardly and houses for sale and if you look at the sold house prices on the land registry the amount of transactions has fallen dramatically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Something is definitely happening. There are now 3 houses for sale on my road in Hertfordshire. All 2 up 2 down Victorian terraced properties on the market for £420,000 (This time last year it would of been £360,000) All of them have been on the market for about 6 weeks. This time last year they would of been snapped up within a week. One of the houses has been under offer twice and obviously fell through for whatever reason. In the local area there are hardly and houses for sale and if you look at the sold house prices on the land registry the amount of transactions has fallen dramatically. Only a fool pays 60,000 more than a year ago. All the fools bought before SDLT 3% increase. Wait for a 60k drop on those Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Only a fool pays 60,000 more than a year ago. All the fools bought before SDLT 3% increase. Wait for a 60k drop on those Anecdotally I can confirm exactly what Crazy Herts says, right down to the figures s/he quotes. There are a lot of fools out there, remember. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 NO To answer the OP, I think we have 2-3 more years of madness before we are in crash territory. Wish it wasn't the case - I'd love it to crash today. Nonsense, look at the prices. Low at the IRs. look at the noise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 Only a fool pays 60,000 more than a year ago. All the fools bought before SDLT 3% increase. Wait for a 60k drop on those A greater fools pays 250K more than 10 years ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 looks like the blow off top in asking prices (only) will be some great reductions in the next 6 months, followed by the real crash and value undershoot. hold strong HPC, the HPI winter is coming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janch Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Something is definitely happening. There are now 3 houses for sale on my road in Hertfordshire. All 2 up 2 down Victorian terraced properties on the market for £420,000 (This time last year it would of been £360,000) All of them have been on the market for about 6 weeks. This time last year they would of been snapped up within a week. One of the houses has been under offer twice and obviously fell through for whatever reason. In the local area there are hardly and houses for sale and if you look at the sold house prices on the land registry the amount of transactions has fallen dramatically. I too have been following a part of Herts and in particular 3 bed semis. A week or so back there was a sudden increase in these in the area I monitor with prices up to £675K!!!. A couple of years back they were around £350K. Where I live (Wilts) the same would be around £250K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 I too have been following a part of Herts and in particular 3 bed semis. A week or so back there was a sudden increase in these in the area I monitor with prices up to £675K!!!. A couple of years back they were around £350K. Where I live (Wilts) the same would be around £250K. Totally sustainable...Buy now...before you miss out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 There is a big difference between a less frothy and more considered market, and the start of a crash. There is nothing more I would like to see than massive falls, believe me, but in the absence of a strong catalyst; I don't see price crashes for 2-3 more years. Why that time frame, I think the wider debt bubble will have imploded by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 (edited) There is a big difference between a less frothy and more considered market, and the start of a crash. There is nothing more I would like to see than massive falls, believe me, but in the absence of a strong catalyst; I don't see price crashes for 2-3 more years. Why that time frame, I think the wider debt bubble will have imploded by then. i think we'll have to agree to disagree on that point. For me the signs are there. PCL has been falling for 12 months+ which made the indexes go haywire. Outer London has slowed and is teetering. The election was "won". Outer London and the shires now making things look rosy but as PCL goes, outer London goes it's toast for the index. The BTLers are toast ( someone I know got notice to move out last week due to land lord selling up !!! ) The chinese will be luck to make it to the end of the month The BrExit could cause problems either way The strong catalyst was in the insane price rises., they have destroyed the very thing they claimed to be. The Debt bubble, which you point out will collapse...IS the housing market !!!! So it is clear to me...the NOMINAL HPC is restarting....the REAL HPC never left the building. Edited May 4, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 11, 2016 Author Share Posted May 11, 2016 Shameless bump. Lots and lots and lots of noise from the MSM. They are either doing EU fearorism or the dam has been busted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Shameless bump. Lots and lots and lots of noise from the MSM. They are either doing EU fearorism or the dam has been busted. Your post made me google house price crash and you're bang on.Unbelievable.Even the Express which has always been a bastion of hold outs. Times are a changing. If there's one thing I've learned over the last fifteen years,it's that a lot of people think if the 'Daily Mail' says it,it must be true. The change in the media narrative on a few months ago is stark indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC1 Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 The change in the media narrative on a few months ago is stark indeed. A decision has clearly been made to manage a change in sentiment, in my view. I suspect that powerful decision makers have deemed it an opportune moment to let the crash begin, for various political and other reasons that we could speculate about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inoperational Bumblebee Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 The phrase is definitely seeing an uptick! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maynardgravy Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 The phrase is definitely seeing an uptick! That's just down to the Count. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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