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evetsm

Ftse Back Where It Was In Jan 1999

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Definitely blown a few worn out saying out of the water, as I have mentioned on a few threads. The biggie being time not timing. Really !! in an index that has gone up and down from 3500 -7000 like Zebedee.

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Like property and the BTL mob. "You can't lose with xxxxxx"

I haven't invested in shares for donkeys years. Since the early 2000s. I used to hold 3 or 4 companies, for the fun. Not life changing amounts in play. Realised it was just too much hassle / stress for me to watch closely and decided it would only be possible once I hit retirement and needed something to occupy myself with.

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Most people don't really fold the FTSE 100 do they, most trackers are set up for FTSE 250 which has gone up roughly trippled since 1999?

Obviously not the god-like returns of property, but at least it's a liquid asset and doesn't need a new boiler.

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Most people don't really fold the FTSE 100 do they, most trackers are set up for FTSE 250 which has gone up roughly trippled since 1999?

Obviously not the god-like returns of property, but at least it's a liquid asset and doesn't need a new boiler.

Just googled...FTSE 100 is actually 80% of UK market capitalisation, so actually 80% of Uk equity investments are held in it, the 250 is a bit of a niche. The likes of Shell and HSBC are so bloody big, at the moment anyway.

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Long term holders have made no capital gains in 16 years, and with almost zero dividends and currency depreciation they've lost.

But that's not true is it, so they have made capital gains.

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But that's not true is it, so they have made capital gains.

It would be interesting to know what the gains are. I seem to remember when we finally revisited 6930 in the spring the gains were at 60% since 1999. That, of course excluded transaction costs and a tracking index would be well under 50% with the management costs which were much higher than today initially. Got to be under 50% as we stand.

Compare that to bonds, pms, cash and property...no doubt which is last.

I'd be surprised if it wasn't top going forward, a big believer in mean reversion.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Definitely blown a few worn out saying out of the water, as I have mentioned on a few threads. The biggie being time not timing. Really !! in an index that has gone up and down from 3500 -7000 like Zebedee.

As I've said before, such is the involvement of govts and central banks in capital markets we're no longer trading but instead placing bets on the long-term viability of New Keynesian General Equilibrium Theory. 'Time in the market' is a falsely comforting presumption that the future will resemble the past and that the ponzi can be held up indefinitely. Evidence for stability and equilibrium in markets and economies is largely if not entirely circumstantial.

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Has there been any new news to take it emphatically below 6000?

With global issues driving markets we can expect big moves on opening (following what happened in Asia overnight) and again when the markets open in the USA. It often trades within a fairly small range otherwise.

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There's been dividends...the question is, why should people expect to make more than a couple of percent, if that, a year.

Its screwed the property market up, why would we want to screw other markets up the same way.

And besides, 1999 was VERY frothy anyway.

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There's been dividends...the question is, why should people expect to make more than a couple of percent, if that, a year.

Its screwed the property market up, why would we want to screw other markets up the same way.

And besides, 1999 was VERY frothy anyway.

The theory was that capital was deployed more favourably. I guess a lot of that capital found its way into final salary Ponzi schemes and corporates are not really getting their own way anymore with regulation and living wages etc. We only need Corbyn to finish the private sector off completely after 2020 as he gets in on economic devastation and then we can forget about work and industry and do what we do best sell houses to each other.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Long term holders have made no capital gains in 16 years, and with almost zero dividends and currency depreciation they've lost.

I held from Nov 2001 (5200) to July 2015 (6800). That's pretty long-term and a 30% capital gain. Certainly not property but not too bad as part of a balanced portfolio. I'm no financial genius but after the 2014 oil crash any signal that the commodity carnage was spreading to the stock markets was enough for me. Following the Greek fiasco it would have taken some serious balls to continue holding European stocks no matter what the flavour.

Edited by Cozza

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I'm guessing the surge back up is due to the top fund managers, bankers, giant squid types, etc finally being contacted on their far away beaches and asked to get to a telephone PDQ to sort the mess out. Their junior staff always cause a f@ck-up every summer.....

B)

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